Judging Freedom - China & Zelenskyy Talking - Col Doug Macgregor

Episode Date: April 26, 2023

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Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Wednesday, April 26, 2023. It's about 3 o'clock in the afternoon here on the east coast of the United States. Colonel Douglas McGregor joins us for his weekly time with us. Colonel, always a pleasure. Thank you for coming back. Colonel, here's the question a lot of us are asking. It's the end of April. We're a week from May. What has become of Ukraine's vaunted, well-publicized spring offensive against the Russian forces? I think a couple of things have happened, one of which is the weather. I sent you a video not long ago that showed you Ukrainian trenches in eastern Ukraine that had about three feet of water in them.

They've had extraordinary rain, so the place is really a sea of mud. And mud doesn't discriminate. It stops Russian as well as Ukrainian vehicles and equipment and people. So I think that's part of it. The second part, I think, is clearly Ukraine's very difficult position right now. If you look at the lists of equipment, I was handed one just a few minutes ago that said that the Ukrainians have received something in the neighborhood of 6,000, excuse me, 6,200 heavy weapons systems. This involves artillery, tanks, all sorts of equipment, of which about 90% is being destroyed. They're still receiving more, but I think that they're a long way from being ready. They say they're going to have 60,000 troops concentrated somewhere for an attack. I'm sure the Russians are watching

carefully as they see evidence for any buildups, but that's going to be very, very tough right now because they have no air defense. They can't stop the incoming Russian missiles, rockets, and artillery, and the Russians can see everything effectively just as we can from our own satellites. So I think the Ukrainians are kind of a standstill at the moment. Here's a statement from a Ukrainian brigadier general. I don't know if you know him or know of him. Sergei Melnik told Spain's El Pais, P-A-I-S, newspaper that Ukraine has already lost most of its professional soldiers and that Ukraine, here's a quote from the general, will need four to six times as many troops as Moscow has fielded in its ongoing military campaign, closed quote, if it is to break through Moscow's defenses.

Colonel, four to six times, is it safe to say that it would be impossible for the Zelensky government to acquire that, if this estimate is accurate, that many additional troops? Of course, Judge. We've said this before. Ukraine has no more chance of defeating Russia than Mexico would have a chance of defeating us in a war. We think that the Ukrainians have suffered probably more than 300,000 killed in action. Now, we've had recent revelations, as you know, thanks to these documents, But quite recently, we also had Cavoli, who's a Supreme Commander Europe, a four-star general, is now admitting that it doesn't appear that very much damage is being done to the Russians. Gosh, I'm shocked. I mean, we've been saying that for months. Now, suddenly, he begins to admit that whatever he's been saying to this point

has been untrue. I think we're going to see more and more admissions of the truth, because people have to be prepared psychologically for the imminent failure that lies over the horizon. And the failure is the crash landing of American policy in Ukraine. What has become of Bakhmut? Has the Ukrainian military given up on it? I have a feeling that what has happened in Bakhmut is that the road is effectively closed off. That doesn't mean nobody can get in or out. I think still things are moving up and down that road, but it's sort of like running a gauntlet of fire. I think the Russians are effectively waiting for this weather to improve. From their vantage point, there's no hurry. They currently control

all of the hard surface roads, both those that move laterally or northwest, southeast in eastern Ukraine. So they've got the hard surface roads that they can use to put columns of troops on when they decide to move. surface roads that they can use to put columns of troops on when they decide to move. I think they're actually waiting to see what the Ukrainians will do. You mentioned earlier that the Ukraine air defenses have been degraded almost down to zero. That's borne out by the documents, the top secret documents that were released, whoever released them, another story for another time. What is the status, if it even exists, of the Ukraine Air Force? Did anybody give them the jets that Zelensky has been asking for? Well, I don't know whether they've received any

jets. I've heard that some of them have been received and may have actually been cannibalized to get other jets up and running. But truthfully, there doesn't seem to be much Ukrainian Air Force to speak of. And there is a rumor on the street here in Washington that President Biden has actually implied that he might be willing to fly U.S. aircraft in support of the Ukrainians. Now, I don't know how that would work. Well, if he flies U.S. aircraft with U.S. pilots, they're fair game in war, no? Of course. Well, during the Korean War, to a lesser extent in Vietnam, but certainly during the Korean War, there were large numbers of Russians flying fire aircraft in support of the North Koreans, and we shot them down. I would not be surprised if there was not an effort at least to consider

putting U.S. pilots inside aircraft that had Ukrainian markings on them. How that would work and how far they would get, who knows? I mean, this integrated air defense structure that our Air Force has routinely dismissed has turned out to be very, very effective on the Russian side. And if we were to use any of our high-end aircraft, it would be a bonanza for the Russians because this would allow them to test all of their capabilities against them. They've done a little of that, by the way, in Syria, where they were able to capture all the target forms and radar signatures of all of our high-end jets. But the opportunity to actually shoot some of ours down, well, that would be a welcome opportunity, I would think, for the

Russian military. What you have been courageously articulating in the past 13 months that you and I have had the pleasure of working together has all come to pass. Is it now generally recognized by NATO countries that this is a lost cause militarily? Behind the scenes, absolutely. No question about it. Even the Polish chief of staff just a couple of months ago, as you know, made a statement where he pointed out the Russians have actually performed very well.

The Russian soldiers are quite competent, tough, capable, should not be underestimated. Then he went silent. But my sources in Poland tell me that he continues to warn against the use of any Polish forces to rescue the Ukrainians, because it would be effectively a fool's errand. And what about Victoria Nuland and her folks? I mean, it was just two weeks ago she suggested that Ukrainian fighter jets or I don't know what hardware should be used, Ukrainian military could legitimately, lawfully, and wisely, my words, not hers, but I've listened to what she said many times, attack Crimea,

and that the American military would support that. Is she standing alone in that? Victoria Nuland represents the ideological wing of the hard left in the Biden administration. She's always been there. She's been operating like this for two decades, at least. I don't think I would pay much attention to her militarily, but I think she's a voice of the die-hard supporter you know she's uh somebody who's not going to stop talking until russian tanks are rolling along the border with poland i mean that's literally her attitude it's it's it's catastrophic i don't think she has any military influence thank goodness right this is the sort of thing that ideologues do. Remember, their ideology of

perpetual war and revolution to spread what they call democracy, which is really their own hegemony, this sort of thing is a religion to them. And they have a faith in it that rivals, you know, the Muslims' faith in Islam or the Christians' faith in Christianity. See if you can guess who said the following. I think you know who this is. Even these countries of the former Soviet Union do not have an effective status in international law, since there is no international agreement that would specify their status as sovereign countries. I'd hate to hazard a guess.

That is the Chinese ambassador to France made that statement in Paris. And of course, this caused a tremendous kerfuffle in Brussels and in Beijing. Where he gets this from, I don't know. Why he said it, I don't know. But the Chinese government has since felt the need to say the Baltic countries are free and sovereign and independent nations, and we respect that. I just throw this out there because I wonder if it was part of the long and meaningful phone call that President Zelensky had with President Xi of China, either yesterday or today, depending upon, you know, which side of the international time zone you're on, but they just had it.

Yeah, well, it's possible, though I doubt very seriously that President Xi would have made a statement like that to President Zelensky, because that would have undermined President Xi's effort to try and persuade him to come to terms with Moscow. But, you know, there is a certain amount of truth in what the Chinese ambassador said. We Americans ought to keep that in mind. My ancestors used to say that, you know, whatever we can hold with our sword is ours. In other words, you can take your lawful agreements and shove them. You're speaking of Scotland. Yes, I'm speaking of my Highland ancestors.

When is Scotland going to become free? But that's another time, Colonel. I don't know. But the bottom line is we ought to keep it in mind that we draw these borders. And borders are only meaningful if you can actually protect them. We're not bothering to do that with our own. And we might well wake up in the future and discover that we have Mexico or other countries claiming parts of our own continent. I hope not. But I think it's definitely possible. I want to ask you about this conversation.

Of course, we don't know exactly what was said. But what would be President Xi's purpose in having this conversation with President Zelensky if it wasn't to try and talk him into coming to some sort of a negotiating table. Absolutely. Remember from the very beginning, contrary to what everyone in the West thinks, the last thing that China wants is a war with anybody. Remember, one out of every four Chinese under the age of 30 is currently unemployed. They've shut down the shadow banking system. They've destroyed the opportunities for credit, for expanding the economy as a result. The corruption, the war on corruption has taken an enormous toll. And Xi has literally imprisoned hundreds of

thousands and had thousands executed for horrendous crimes of corruption. We're talking about people in the PLA and in the armed forces as well. We don't cover these things. We don't understand China. The Chinese want to trade with Europe. They need Europe, particularly if they're going to lose us. And the Europeans want to trade with China so that they're not exclusively dependent upon us. They've got to have the one belt, one road. That means they've got to go through Ukraine with all of these high-speed rail lines that they want to build to transport goods and services.

All right, well, this is fascinating, Colonel, because according to Bloomberg, a reporter from which was physically present when readouts were given. That's the government version of the conversation. There are some things that both readouts agreed on, one of which you just said. Xi, President Xi of China, says negotiations are the only solution for the war. Two, President Xi says China is willing to boost its ties

with Ukraine, which must mean trade or maybe even financial aid in rebuilding Ukraine if Zelensky will sit down somewhere, Geneva, Beijing, wherever they're going to have these talks, if they have them. The obstacle to the talks, I'm sorry, my question is so long-winded, I'm throwing a lot at you. The obstacle to the talks is the American State Department. Well, this is the Chinese version of William Howard Taft's dollar diplomacy. You'll recall that we had a similar policy back before the First World War, particularly with Latin America. It makes infinite sense. The Chinese are quite willing to try and buy their way in rather than fight their way in. We continually

complain about China making inroads in all sorts of parts of the world. Well, they're doing it with money. Unfortunately, we've chosen a military instrument. And then we've chosen to lecture everybody on adopting whatever we think is liberal and democratic, when in reality, the Chinese never interfere in the affairs of other countries. So I think this makes sense. Now, what can he do? This is a difficult question for Zelensky, because how much can Zelensky give up and survive in office? We don't know. We have no idea what's really happening inside his country when it comes to his own political future. But the Chinese are probably saying, look, if you'll sign over

most of the territory that the Russians now have, and probably a little bit more, I would suspect, and do business with the Russians, we'll stop this and we'll rebuild your country. It'll take a decade, but we'll do it. And I'm sure, frankly, that President Putin has got a lot of pressure right now on him inside Russia to march all the way to the Polish border. Again, as we discussed before, most Americans have no idea how infuriated the Russian people are with what has happened. Their hatred for Ukraine is only in second place to their hatred for us for having created and cultivated this conflict. But he is a pragmatist. Putin is nothing if not a smart pragmatist, and if Putin can end this, stop the bleeding, stop the wasteful destruction of property that has no interest for him, I think he would probably

go along with Xi. So as I hear you, we in the West do not know the stability of President Xi in office. We do not know if he fears for his tenure in office or his mortal existence on the planet if he were to acquiesce to peace negotiations now and cause a ceasefire. I mean, he might flee to Miami and call for the ceasefire there. Well, Judge, when have our intelligence services warned us effectively of much of anything? I mean, I remember in 1989 when everything collapsed or began to collapse in the Soviet East Europe, people were stunned. Just a year or two before. People were telling me, I see no evidence for any undermining of the broad consensus in the Soviet elite and in Eastern Europe for the continuation of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet state system. It all happened very, very quickly.

No one seemed to get it. I think Murray Fischbach, he was the demographer, he was the only one who'd been predicting the imminent collapse of the Soviet Union since the mid-70s on the basis of demographics alone. But nobody else did. So why should we be surprised now that we don't know what Xi really thinks? We don't know his real position. We don't understand what's really happening in China. We're too busy projecting ourselves onto everyone else. All right. Well, if the Russian intel has the ability to listen to conversations between Joe and Jill Biden,

does the American CIA, I'm just exaggerating a little bit. Boring, boring transcripts. Right. Does the American CIA have the ability to listen to conversations of President Xi and his senior military and political leadership staff? They certainly do. How much and how often, I mean, how frequently does Xi or does Putin retreat to his soundproof area to conduct conversations? Who knows? But certainly we can pick up a great deal. Zelensky, Zelensky, not G. Do we know if Zelensky is a scared rabbit that he thinks he's going to be assassinated tomorrow

or is he truly in command? Well, if they know, they're not going to tell you or me. They're not going to tell us. We're never going to find out the truth. But I suspect he's very worried right now. Predictions for the next couple of months. To me, it seems like the Chinese are doing the right thing. And the readout from the conversation was to prepare the Ukrainian elites or whoever controls Zelensky for the inevitable ceasefire and negotiations presided over by some universally respected Chinese diplomat.

I think that's what the Chinese would want. The question is, if you stop and consider the sort of relentless propaganda attack on China now. It's almost as though China has eclipsed Russia as the great evil that has to be contained and defeated. And you hear people in the military like this admiral in the Pacific Fleet who spoke last week and said we could actually manage a two-front war, which is the height of stupidity and, you know, idiocy. You begin to get the impression that we would probably prefer that there be no peace in Ukraine at all because we don't want the Chinese and the Europeans to trade with each other. We think that would be bad for our interests. Well, that's like stopping the sunshine from bursting through the clouds. I mean, it's going to happen whether we like it or not.

We don't seem to care about that. Colonel, what is the status of American preparedness for the use of our military for defensive purposes? Stated differently, have we depleted our substantive supplies and the things we've given away to Ukraine? The Wall Street Journal reports that the military industrial complex in the U.S. can't work fast enough, hard enough, and get enough people to work for it. Anyone with any experience in the defense industries and inside the Department of Defense will tell you that our great weakness at this time, and it has been a weakness we're aware of for at least 20 to 30 years, is that we don't have a surge capacity. Surge capacity means that you can suddenly set machines in motion and turn out millions of rounds of ammunition in the space of a few days with a little bit of effort. We don't have that because it's very expensive to keep large numbers of people sitting around

waiting to operate large numbers of machines. So we have effectively cut everything to the bone. Everything is a very short fuse in terms of our time horizon. We think in terms of what we're going to do over the next 90 days or six months. The Russians had always effectively kept the capacity for surging their existing equipment sets. We did not, and we do not. So the answer to your question is, if we were compelled to fight for any longer than a few weeks in Central East Europe, we couldn't do it. Does the President of the United States know that, Colonel? You know, that's the thousand dollar question. And let's say that he knows it,

he may be told, well, don't worry, because we'll win in that short time. We can go back. We won anything in three weeks. Well, you know, we can go all the way back to the Second World War. And when the Germans attacked France, the German general staff opposed it. They were violently opposed to going against the French and the British because they said we're not ready and they were right. We think that the Luftwaffe in 1940 had about two weeks of ammunition on hand when they attacked the British and the French. So it was a high-risk venture. Then when you turn around and you look at the invasion of the Soviet Union by the Germans, a 1,000-mile front with only, what, 3 million men

and perhaps 10,000 armored fighting vehicles versus 4 or 5 million Soviet troops and 30,000 tanks. I mean, these are all intelligence failures, but they're also errors in judgment. So I don't think we would be surprised to discover that there are people in the Pentagon that are making similar errors of judgment. When it comes to war, the cardinal rule is, if you're not compelled to fight, don't fight.

Colonel Douglas McGregor, always a pleasure, my dear friend. Thank you so much for joining us. Sure. Thank you, Judge. If you like that, like and subscribe, and more will come. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.