Judging Freedom - Col. Doug Macgregor - Ukraine Russia War Latest

Episode Date: September 29, 2022

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Resolve to earn your degree in the new year in the Bay with WGU. With courses available online 24-7 and monthly start dates, WGU offers maximum flexibility so you can focus on your future. Learn more at wgu.edu. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here with Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, September 29th, 2022. It's a few minutes after three o'clock in the afternoon here on the east coast of the United States. Our guest today is, of course, no stranger to any of you who regularly

watch this podcast, Colonel Douglas McGregor, career at West Point, career military in the Pentagon in President Trump's administration. I wish you were there today. And our chief go-to guy on military matters lately, of course, on the military conflagration in Ukraine. Colonel, it's always a pleasure to have you here. Colonel, can Russia lose this war? No. Okay. Why is it, I know you paused and you have more to tell us. Why is it that all of the media seems to be beating a drum for that? Is it their political agenda? Is it what they're being fed by the intelligence communities? Or does it appear to a neutral observer? Not you, not me. I'm not

neutral and you're super educated in this field. But to a neutral observer that rushes back us to the wall. Yeah, I've been hearing that literally from 24 February onward. In fact, I was remarking the other day to someone else watching this very carefully. And we both said, yes, it seems as though from 24 February until today, the Ukrainian army has been continually winning. And yet it has lost control of the key terrain that it wanted to retain. it suffered enormous casualties. Of course, we have not reported accurately on Ukrainian losses, and they're quite desperate right now. And hopefully when we talk about other issues in the pipeline, we can get back to this notion of Ukrainian desperation, because it is quite real. Okay, let me show you what a professor who purports to be an expert in military history

at St. Andrews University in Scotland has said about the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainians are trying, albeit with far fewer advantages, to do to Russia what the U.S. and the U.K. did to Germany. Ukrainian forces have learned to skillfully use advanced weaponry, in this case NATO standard systems such as HIMARS and HARM missiles, Colonel, you and I have talked about them, to neutralize the brute strength of the Russian army. They, the Ukrainians, have accomplished this because Ukrainian society is more flexible, technologically conversant, and willing to learn than the Russian invaders are. They have shown more cleverness and wisdom,

and over time, that advantage has allowed them to start taking the initiative. Where is he wrong? Well, it's sort of voluminous in terms of bizarre thinking. I think the first thing that people need to know is that Putin has never employed more than 20% of the Russian ground force in Ukraine. This has been a sticking point in disagreements with his general officers. From the moment he entered, he sent his force into Ukraine, it was outnumbered by the far larger Ukrainian army. And the Ukrainians have done what their British and U.S. advisors urged them to do, and they've essentially dug in and tried to fight for every inch of ground, which ultimately made it far easier than it otherwise would have

been for the Russians to systematically destroy and annihilate Ukrainian forces. Today, the regular army that existed at the beginning of this war several months ago, seven months ago, frankly, no longer exists. And they're pushing large numbers of people into action at gunpoint to get them to defend again, or worse yet, to attack. And they're attacking relentlessly, as you and I talk right now, near this town of Liman, which they've decided they must take. There are 4,000 Russian defenders being attacked by 15, 20, 25,000 Ukrainians, and the Ukrainian losses are horrific. I don't think this man has a realistic picture. I think he's listening to some of the same people that are producing disinformation in London and New York,

MI6 and their other Western intelligence organizations. You know, the Russians are not a bunch of incompetents, but all operations, Judge, begin with certain assumptions and are constrained one way or another by political leadership. And the Russian army was constrained when it went into Ukraine because Putin made it abundantly clear he did not want large numbers of civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. If the Russians are only using or if Putin is only deploying 20% of his regular army, why is he calling up reservists? Why doesn't he go deeper into the regular army, people that are already chained? Well, there's a very good answer for that. I think a couple of things have changed. First, Putin no longer believes that he has the potential to reach an agreement with the West. He knows that Washington is ultimately in charge. He sees

no evidence that Washington under any circumstances will negotiate any sort of ceasefire arrangement, let alone an agreement on Ukrainian territory with Moscow. So, number one, no more negotiated agreement is in sight. Secondly, the frustration in the Russian people. The Russian people were very surprised, as I was and many others, frankly, that watched the initial operation unfold, that he did not go in with a sledgehammer, which was, you know, the traditional Russian method, frankly, and was so meticulous in his avoidance of civilian damage and infrastructure damage. So I think those two things have caught up, and he's finally said, well, that's over. So he's

brought in reservists to relieve Russian forces elsewhere in Russia, and they are now pouring into Belorussia. The rail yards in Minsk are full. You have thousands of trains pulling into the Western railheads in Southern Russia. Now, I don't know how many troops that amounts to. If we say there are 200 or 300,000 more troops now entering the theater, we have to assume that probably half of them are a little lesser combat and the other half are support troops. But that still means that the Ukrainians would now have to deal with an additional 150 to 200,000 combat troops. That seems to be in the offing. Now, it'll take time to assemble all of that, but that's what the reservists have enabled. They're replacing Russian troops in eastern Siberia and northern Russia.

Let's put up one more quote from your least favorite professor at St. Andrews University in Scotland. The supposedly second strongest army in the world, with its martial spirit, brilliant doctrines, and advanced equipment was thwarted and is now being pushed back by a Ukrainian military whose prospects most outsiders had dismissed before the war. Yeah, well, I think that this professor should be suited up, flown into theater, and given an opportunity to join the Ukrainians in the front lines and find out what it's like to live under massive Russian artillery strikes and then deal with massive Russian tank and infantry assault.

I think the man's delusional. As I said at the beginning, Putin made certain decisions about what he wanted and what he didn't want. The general staff objected. They were told to shut up and color. They did what they were told to do. They've done the best they can. They've now decided that things have changed.

We're going to see a much larger Russian military contingent. And I think between now and Christmas, the proverbial gloves will come off. Do the referenda that took place in the portions of Ukraine that Putin says always were Russia and that Zelensky says Putin has stolen, American neocons say is a land grab. Do they have credibility? Do they have respectability? Do the people there, who I think you have said are largely Russian-speaking, truly want to be a part of Russia? Well, I consulted my sources, in fact, last night at some length, and they reported to me that the turnouts have been huge and that it is overwhelmingly supportive of joining Russia. And the one thing that is annoying the hell out of the Russian population in eastern Ukraine

is that the Ukrainians have tried to shell Russians going to vote on their way to the voting booths. Ukrainians have shelled Ukraine? Well, these are not Ukrainians. These are Russians. Remember, these people have always been treated as third-class citizens inside Ukraine. Plus they're ethnic Russians and they're Russian-speaking. Yes, and they were told either you become Ukrainian or you can get out. And these people had nowhere to go. And initially when, again, this is part of the problem with Putin's approach at the outset, when they went in, the Russians, the Russians were not there to seize territory.

And they told everybody, we're here to destroy the Ukrainian threat to Russia and then come to some sort of arrangement for Ukrainian neutrality. And the Russians that lived there said, look, that just means that when you leave, the Ukrainian secret police shows up and murders us. So we're not going to help you. Well, finally, the light bulb went on in Moscow. They said, we can't leave these people because once we pull out, these people will be killed. in these areas of Ukraine, help organize the referenda, and the media refers to them as Moscow's proxies. Your argument is that they're not proxies for Putin. They're doing what they believe the majority of the people want to do, who have considered themselves Russian all along. Agreed? Yeah, absolutely. And there is a historical argument in support of Putin for the amount of years that this territory has, in fact, been recognized internationally as part of Russia.

Agreed. Sure, absolutely. Look, we go into everything as Americans with absolutely no use or regard whatsoever for whatever has happened before we arrived. Right. We take the position that, well, we're here now, and we're bringing you the benefits of liberal democracy, whether you like it or not. And we know how the history has turned out. Very badly for us, virtually everywhere we've gone to. You know, my favorite example is Cuba.

Cuba is the state that we invaded more times than any other during the 20th century. Not only did we invade and occupy Cuba, we wrote its constitution. We supervised elections. How did that turn out? Not very well. It's probably the poorest place in the Western Hemisphere. I'm always reminded of that when I see those 1956 Chevrolets in front of a four or five star hotel because they can't. We won't let them buy modern automobiles. Switching gears from the hot part of the world to the cold part of the world. The sabotage on the Nord Stream pipeline, who would have an interest in doing that?

Who would stand to gain from that sabotage? Well, don't you in the legal community have the expression, qui bono, who benefits? For who's good, correct. Now, this is a pipeline, too. Germans's good, correct. This is a pipeline to not Germans wouldn't accept it, now they'll be begging for it, and it's there

and ready to use if Putin turns on the spigot and the Germans will pay the bill. But this is a pipeline that goes all the way from Russia through the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea to northern Germany, and now it doesn't work because, as the latest report, is four explosions. A, could those explosions possibly have been done by a non-state

actor that would think you'd need a submarine to get down there? And B, what state actor, if you agree it probably was a state actor, would gain from this? Well, undoubtedly it's a state actor. Let's use the process of elimination. Would the Russians destroy their own pipeline? 40% of Russian gross national product or gross domestic product consists of foreign currency that comes into the country to purchase natural gas oil coal so forth so the Russians did not do this the notion that they did I think is absurd and in fact we're the ones that keep insisting that the Russians have destroyed their own pipeline

the Germans have already made it very clear that's absurd. That did not happen. Now, would the Germans do this? Extremely unlikely, in my judgment. The Germans wanted that pipeline. They were prepared for it. They backed away from it because we insisted on it. Then who else might be involved? Well, the Poles apparently seem to be very enthusiastic about it. As you know, the Polish foreign minister said, thank you, United States of America, for doing this. He just assumed it was the CIA. Well, look, I don't think you, first of all, we don't know. We just don't know. All right. I can sit here.

Keep going, Colonel. Keep going along your process of elimination. Who's after the polls? I guess it's Washington. Well, then you have to look at who are the state actors that have the capability to do this. Ah. And that means the Royal Navy, the United States Navy, Special Operations. I think that's pretty clear. And we know that thousands of pounds of tnt were used because these pipelines are enormously robust you have several inches of concrete around various metal alloys to move the

natural gas so it's not something that you can simply drop a grenade down down at the end of a fish line and disrupt so that means it takes a certain amount of sophistication. But here's the problem. I don't know that, I cannot prove that we or the British or the Poles or anybody else did it. I can't. But we know what the foreign minister Sikorski had to say, the former Polish foreign minister. So who benefits from this? Well, the Germans do not, the Europeans do not. It's not just Germany that was getting that natural gas. The Czechs, the Austrians, the Belgians, the Dutch, even over by the French border down to Switzerland. This has a vast market in Central East Europe. So obviously, none of those people would have done it. But we do know that on the day that the pipeline was disrupted, a new pipeline that had been built from Norway down to Poland suddenly began operations and providing natural gas to Poland.

Of course, the natural gas from Norway is much more expensive than the natural gas from Russia, which is the cheapest available. Now, people say, well, the United States would have done this to force the Europeans to buy our gas, but I don't think that holds up. I think the real outcome of this is that Germany, Berlin, who is the gorilla in the room when it comes to EU and NATO, was beginning to give the impression that they were no longer going to go along with this proxy war in Ukraine. They now face a terrible winter. And of course, nobody wants their population to starve or freeze to death. And I don't think starvation is immediate, but certainly freezing to death is a real possibility in Germany this winter. And there are shortages of food in Germany. So back to who gains. Does the United States gain? Norway gains. Would Norway have the ability and the think they have otherwise all the capabilities required to do this. Could they have been a co-participant in some of this? I don't know. Again, I'm hesitant to say we know it must have been Washington. I can't say that,

because we just don't know. But it's very clear that we have foreclosed Berlin's options. Berlin was drifting away from this alliance. Olaf Scholz said, I'm not sending any more equipment. I won't send any tanks. And now he's having second thoughts? Well, now he's in a bind because the United States has simply robbed him of the option of bailing out. Who's going to supply him with gas and oil and coal and everything else if he bails out? Where does he turn now? And remember, the Germans who are facing terrible consequences at home refuse to restart nuclear power plants. They're instead looking at floating plants that produce electricity from oil, floating, presumably in the North Sea or something. It's the craziest thing

I've ever heard. I mean, the Germans shot themselves in the foot. They didn't have to be as dependent as they were on the Russians. But I think the problem for us is this. This German government is not going to last. Just as we've seen the government fall in Italy, we're going to see the government fall in Germany. Now, I'm not saying the next one that comes in will completely break with us, but I think we're on the very slippery, dangerous path that we never wanted to be on, which is the path to the end of NATO. The only people interested in going to war seem to be the Poles. You know, the Poles have been very, very bellicose,

at least in what they've said. And you've told us about all they've done to train Ukrainian techies and military people in using American military equipment. Give us your likely scenario of what we can expect on the ground in Ukraine between now and Christmas time. Well, I think that most of October will be taken up with assembling and positioning forces, though it's not impossible that some forces could take the offensive Russian forces before the end of October. There are some people who are telling me that the Russian forces that are assembling in Byelorussia, white Russia, north of Kiev, are already prepared to enter the fight. That could be. But I think that the Ukrainians who are being bled white by

these counterattacks are just about out of manpower. And when that manpower runs out, I would expect two things to happen. I think first the Russians will then take the opportunity to attack. And I think they'll try to do it without ending up stuck in the mud. That means probably after the ground freezes, the ground is likely to freeze towards the end of October, beginning of November. So I would see this coming to some sort of closure militarily at that time. Now, I don't know what that means for the Ukrainians. We know, for instance, that the Ukrainian chief of staff and the Russian chief of staff had a phone call within the last

few days to discuss how to end the war. Now, we don't know what came out of it. I mean, perhaps someone at the National Security Agency knows. I don't. But I take that as an indicator that the Ukrainians are nearing the end of their rope. Now, Zelensky, meanwhile, has been dropping tidbits of information to media to be reproduced in the Ukrainian media. One item was that he's having a group of scientists and engineers assembled in Kiev to put together a potentially a dirty bomb, nuclear bomb consisting of spent uranium fuel from one of their uranium power plants. Well, even if that's true, they can't do it overnight. Well, one would think not. But I mean, these are the kinds of things that are coming out. I mean, anybody that objectively looks at this stuff has got to conclude that Ukrainians are quite desperate.

I mean, I don't know how many times I have sat in front of film footage sent to me showing convoys of hundreds of ambulances carrying wounded from southern Ukraine back to Kiev and further west, because all the hospitals, all the facilities to handle wounded near the front are completely full. They're overflowing. The Russians have actually allowed ceasefires along their fronts to let the Ukrainians come forward and pick up their dead and wounded and evacuate them. Of course, no one in the west will report that, but that's happened. I was frankly shocked, but that's what's been going on. This thing is not some sort of grand march to victory by Ukraine, quite the opposite. The real question is how much longer will Zelensky survive this? I don't know.

We'll end with that, Colonel McGregor. Always a pleasure. The comments that we get, our viewers love you. They could listen to you all afternoon. All the best to you. Thank you for joining us, sir. Thank you, Judge. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.