Judging Freedom - Col. Douglas Macgregor: Can the US support two wars?

Episode Date: October 19, 2023

Col. Douglas Macgregor: Can the US support two wars?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, October 19th, 2023. In just a moment, Colonel Douglas McGregor on how can we avoid Armageddon in the Middle East. But first this. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Lear Capital. You all know that I am a paid spokesperson for Lear Capital because it's the right thing to do because the government is regulating too much and printing too much money and reducing the value of everything you earn and everything you own. And the best hedge against this is gold and silver. That's what I've done. I know the folks at Lear. I trust the folks at what I've done. I know the folks at Lear. I trust the folks at Lear.

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So call Lear now, 800-511-4620 or learjudgenap.com. Colonel McGregor, welcome to the show. It's a profound question given the events in the Middle East of the past 10 days. How can we, the United States and the West, avoid Armageddon? Well, that's the question that should be on everyone's mind in Washington, and sadly, it seldom comes up. I think the greatest challenge for Americans, even more than for the Israelis, is to understand just how profoundly the world we live in has changed since the last major war that the Israelis were compelled to fight, and that was in 1973. Some of your observers and audience may remember, 1973 Israel was attacked by the Syrians

in the east and the north and at the same time attacked from the south and the west by Egypt. The problem was that Egypt had very limited goals. The Egyptian president was not interested in destroying or eradicating Israel. He simply wanted to regain control of the territory that had been lost in 1967. So he moved across the canal, set up a defense, and that was as far as he went. The Assyrians, of course, did try to break through, and that was somewhat desperate for a period of time. But the Israelis were able to meet that threat first before turning their entire attention to Egypt. This time the situation is very different.

First of all, the weapons have changed. The arsenal of rockets and missiles in the region is enormous. People are quoting numbers in the realm of 130,000 rockets and missiles from Hezbollah alone. We don't even need to mention others in the region. That kind of arsenal is enough in and of itself to destroy much of Israel. But then you have a problem with Hamas and Hezbollah and the rest of the region, and that is the rest of the region is as sick of Israel as much of the world, and Europe is sick of us. And what I mean by that is that we are on the threshold of total war. That's what no one seems to understand. If the Israelis march into Gaza, which I think would be

a very unrewarding exercise for them, but nevertheless, they seem determined to do it. If they do, they will not only lose soldiers, they will fail to root out the thousands of Hamas fighters that are there. They'll get some, but they won't get them all. They will not improve their position at all with the people of Hamas or the people living on the so-called West Bank. And the rest of the region is prepared to go to war. Stop and think about it.

It's not just Iran. In fact, Iran has militias that can attack us, anyone who works with us in Iraq and Syria. That's one part of the problem. The Iranians are not going to try to lob theater ballistic missiles at Israel because the Israelis have said they would use a nuclear weapon. But Turkey is different. And the Turks have an unhappy record with the Israelis. Just a few years ago, they tried to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. The Israelis boarded their ship, killed some of their citizens, and turned back the aid. This kind of thing did not cultivate support and friendliness in Turkey.

And remember, Mr. Erdogan is the de facto leading military power in the Sunni Muslim world. Finally, you have the Pakistanis who are very close to the Turks, and it made it abundantly clear that the Turks will receive nuclear warheads and other capabilities from them if they need them in order to deter the Israelis from using a nuclear weapon. And finally, the Turks have the largest air forces and armies in the region. The Turks can put two million men in the field have the largest air forces and armies in the region. The Turks can put two million men in the field in the space of a little over a month. And the Turks are ferocious fighters. Now, all of this spells doom for the Israelis if they launch this attack on Gaza.

What I've just described is an unwinnable fight. Even the air power from the United States that we could commit is not going to be enough. And we all know we don't have the troops on the ground. We simply don't have very many soldiers or Marines at this point. So the president has sent two aircraft carriers and 2,000 Marines there. Is that going to ameliorate this or exacerbate it? Well, we're watching now as Mr. Biden says one thing and Mr. Netanyahu says another. Many of us were very pleased when Mr. Biden emerged from his meeting with Mr. Netanyahu and indicated that humanitarian aid would be delivered to Gaza. We all felt that that was the first thing that we needed to do and that that could conceivably pave the road to a ceasefire.

But in fact, now Mr. Netanyahu has said, well, the humanitarian aid can be delivered, but not until we say so, and not until we've completed our task in Gaza. Well, that's a catastrophe if that turns out to be the case. And again, he sort of indicated that our forces won't fight on the ground, which is an easy commitment to make since we don't have much to put on the ground. But there's no mention of what the carrier air will do. And right now it looks as though most of that carrier air will be committed against Hezbollah in the event that Hezbollah attacks from the north. The point is, all of this points to Armageddon. It points to a total war against Israel that will ultimately include us, at least as long as we support the Israelis.

So historically, what presidents have done is they've intervened and they've acted as a check on Israeli power. Not so much power, but on the Israeli tendency to exaggerate, to go too far. We had that experience under Nixon when the Israelis crossed the Suez Canal, and it was made clear we would not tolerate that, and those Israeli troops were withdrawn. We've had that experience in previous occasions with the Israelis, where we reeled them in, if you will. But now it seems as though we're not going to do that, and whatever Mr. Biden was told doesn't seem to amount to very much. So I don't know where we're headed, but it doesn't look good. Here's both of those statements.

So, Chris, cut one and cut two. First, Prime Minister Netanyahu saying what you said he said, no humanitarian aid to Gaza. And then the president of the United States saying the opposite. First of all, I demanded the return of our captives, and we are working together for their return in every way possible. Secondly, until the return, we demand Red Cross visits for our captives. Thirdly, we will not allow humanitarian assistance in the form of food and medicines from our territory to the Gaza Strip. No, I was very blunt about the need to support getting humanitarian aid to Gaza.

Get it to Gaza and do it quickly. Israel has been badly victimized, but the truth is that if they have an opportunity to relieve suffering of people who have nowhere to go, it's what they should do. And if they don't, they'll be held accountable in ways that may be unfair. My point to everyone is, look, if you have an opportunity to alleviate the pain, you should do it, period. And if you don't, you're going to lose credibility worldwide. And I think everyone understands that. Well, he did make some sense at the very end. The failure to alleviate the suffering of innocents when you have the power to do so will diminish your credibility. I want to go back to something you mentioned earlier, Colonel. How dangerous is it, maybe even futile, for Israeli troops to enter Gaza on the ground?

They're mainly reservists. Are they even trained and prepared to fight a guerrilla warfare against an enemy that doesn't wear uniforms? Well, several of my contacts in the IDF have indicated that this group of reservists is not as well trained as the reservists were in 1973 when they were called up. Remember at that point, the Israelis had been through several conflicts. This group is really unfamiliar with the kind of battlefield experience that you would want if you were to send people into this environment. And remember something else. Israelis have pulverized the northern part of Gaza. You're going to try and fight through the ruins? That's the worst mistake that you could possibly

make. If you want to fight through, find hostages, you cannot reduce the place to rubble. You know, on the way to Stalingrad, the commander of the 6th Army pleaded with the German Air Force not to bomb Stalingrad. They did so anyway, and the bombing only helped the Soviet defenders. And I think that this bombing has probably helped the Hamas defenders. If Prime Minister Netanyahu were to ask for your advice as to how to, you knew this was coming, as to how to root out Hamas or how to get the hostages back unharmed, what would you tell him? I think he knows without being told that the probability of recovering these 200 hostages, roughly 199 I think is the latest count, is very low. And if you go in there, the high probability is that they'll simply be executed rather than let them fall into your hands.

So I don't I don't have an easy answer and I don't think any of us does for the rescue of hostages. But certainly, if you were willing to open the gates and let aid in. I'm told that the Egyptians have been told that at some point, 20 trucks of food, medicine, other supplies will be allowed into Gaza through the Rafah entry and exit point from Gaza into Egypt. The sooner they show up, the better. But thus far, they're still sitting parked outside of that gate. And again, the Egyptians have made it very clear that they can't accept Palestinians. Now, is this because Egyptians hate Palestinians? No. Egypt has enough trouble feeding itself, maintaining its own country. And they know something that nobody bothers to point out. If you move the people living in Gaza today over the border into Egypt, probability is very high that you've just moved the problem 50 or 60 miles away. The problem itself is not solved. And this is the core issue right now.

How do you solve the problem unless you are willing to sit down and come up with some sort of solution that is something different from what Mr. Netanyahu wants. I understand Mr. Netanyahu's position completely. He wants no negotiation. He wants to eradicate Hamas. And frankly speaking, he knows the only way to do that is to eradicate Gaza. Well, that's not going to happen. And if you try to eradicate Gaza, you are going to get total war in the region. That's the bottom line. So what would the IDF on the ground accomplish? Would they have air support? Would they have artillery? Would they have tanks? What are they trying to do? Take people out of homes without destroying the homes, looking in basements for hostages? That doesn't sound like a very efficient use of the military to me. No, it isn't. And it's a losing proposition,

which means that to treat this disease, if you want to call it that, you can't treat the symptoms. You have to go to the core problem. And the core problem is the unresolved Palestinian issue. How do you resolve that? As long as there is no willingness to take that seriously and discuss it, you're going to have more and more conflict. You will never have good security in Israel. And the Israelis, they do many things well. But mobilizing 400 and, well, actually fielding an army of somewhere between 470,000 and 500,000, quite frankly, may not be enough when you're dealing with Hezbollah as well as Hamas. And that's the problem. And then on top of that, what do you do if suddenly the president of Turkey

shows up on General Sisi's doorstep? And by the way, General Sisi, the last thing he wants is a war. And he's very afraid of Egypt being dragged into one. The Egyptians and the Israelis have had good cooperation for many years now. But if he thinks this war is going to spill into his country or his own people are going to rise up against him because he refuses to involve Egypt in defense of the Palestinians, what does he do if Mr. Erdogan from Turkey says, we will support you. We'll help you. What happens in Syria with Assad, who is very much under threat from all of this, what happens if suddenly Mr. Erdogan says, you know, we can set aside our differences over the last 20 years. We have a common enemy now. We're willing to support you. What are you going to sit there and watch 250,000 Turkish troops move on the Golan Heights?

And then, of course, there's our friends in Iran. I don't think the Iranians want an all-out war by any stretch of the imagination, but they're taking a lot of precautions right now inside that country that suggests they fully expect us to attack them. And if we attack them, then there's no real rationale or reason for them to restrain themselves in any way. This is a mess. It requires leadership from the very top, from President Biden. And that doesn't include passing out cash. That means you show up and say, listen here, this is something we cannot do.

We Americans are overstretched. We're on the verge of bankruptcy. We can't afford to fight two wars simultaneously. We're overstretched because of our commitment in Ukraine. Now you're asking us to commit entirely to you. That's an impossibility. We can certainly send two aircraft carriers, but their impact ashore is marginal. We know that from experience. Will he do that? I don't see any evidence that he will. Well, we're going to discuss in just a minute what we think he's going to say tonight, which is the opposite of what you've just advised. But before we do, cut three, Chris. Here's

a bit of a newsy report, but then it gets to the president, where a reporter asks him, is it true that you're going to put American troops on the ground to fight alongside of the Israeli defense forces? You'll be happy with his answer. Fury outside the U.S. embassy in Lebanon. Much of the Arab world enraged by America's backing Israel in this war and chance of death to Israel accompanied by death to America. Now, after Arab leaders snubbed President Biden by canceling overseas meetings, there are elevated fears of a possible second massive front, not only the original attack by Hamas to the south, but potentially from the north as well by the terror group Hezbollah based inside of Lebanon. Yes, it is concerning because

we find ourselves unfortunately in a combustible situation where we have armed enemies all around us. Now, Axios reporting the White House has discussed possibly using military force if Hezbollah joins in the war. The president said to anybody who's thinking of getting involved in opening additional fronts and making this more of a regional war, he was very clear. Don't, don't, don't. And I don't think that that's an empty promise. The United States and other allies, the UK, France and others have made clear they will not tolerate a situation where there is truly an existential threat to Israel. All right, may I ask you about, there's a report in the Times of Israel that says Biden officials have indicated to Israel in recent days that if Hezbollah initiates a war against Israel,

the U.S. military will join the IDF in fighting the terrorist group. Not true. Not true? That was never said. I hope we can believe him, Colonel. Well, we know that the aircraft on board those carriers can fly in support of and alongside the Israeli Defense Force Air Force. So let there be no question about that and I think that's exactly why they are where they are right now and once you do that if you're involving yourself in what promises to be a total war then you have enemies everywhere and we're not

really equipped right now to handle two major regional contingencies or two major wars. You know, historically, the successful states practice economy of enemies. If you've got one serious enemy, you try to avoid provoking anybody else. We've already provoked the Russians. And the Russians to date have actually been very accommodating to the Israelis. When I was last over there, all of the Israeli officers made it clear to me they very much valued Russia's interest and support because the Russians made it very clear to Assad in Syria that if the Iranians established positions inside Syria on Syrian soil that they would not protect the Syrians from any attacks

that the Israelis might launch. Now, this has been a touch and go situation, but it's worked. That's not true anymore. If you listen to Mr. Putin, he's made it very clear where he stands, and he's not going to support any plan that results in the destruction and effectively what people call the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. Here's President Biden on 60 Minutes with Scott Pelley. And in this clip, he is the anti-Douglas McGregor. Are the wars in Israel and Ukraine more than the United States can take on at the same time? We're the United States of America, for God's sake. The most powerful nation in the history, not in the world, in the history of the world.

The history of the world. We can take care of both of these and still maintain our overall international defense. Well, he's living in 1991. And that's true for most of Washington. They don't understand that in addition to the Muslim world being infinitely better armed and for the first time, capable of united action against Israel and potentially us. He's also dealing with a much reduced defense establishment that, let's be frank, is corrupted and demoralized by leadership that is appalling. How many times do you have to listen to somebody on television to ask, well, why is it that we can't win any wars? Of course,

we say that year after year after year, but we continue to spend trillions of dollars. It hasn't done us any good now all of a sudden we're faced with the prospect of potentially trying to rescue ukraine from the ruins which i think is a dead end but that's what i think we're trying to do and at the same time taking on a new a new war that could conceivably involve the russians and contrary to what he would say biden and everybody else russia has not been harmed by its war in Ukraine. It's stronger and more capable now than it's been since the 80s. Colonel, tonight, the president is going to speak to the nation prime time from the Oval Office, and he will announce that he's about to ask the Congress for a hundred billion with a B dollars to be spent on

Israel Ukraine Taiwan and the border wall well any of it perhaps he will explain to us why after nearly two trillion dollars spent on our defense establishment we cannot defend one inch of America's border with Mexico. I would like to hear his explanation. Secondly, the war in Ukraine is over. It's over. Sure, there are people dying there, not in the numbers they were previously, and the Russian forces are moving slowly west, which of course is the very thing we didn't want to happen. Will they close on the river by Christmas? I don't know. They're certainly going to take Kharkov. And as I've said before, they'll take Odessa. Those are historically Russian cities. Whether they do anything else, I think, is up to them at this point. We can't stop it.

We're throwing good money after bad. So Ukraine is hopeless. Israel is in a very dangerous position, and the answer is not confrontation and threats. The answer is negotiate, talk, diplomacy. The problem is we sent Mr. Blinken all over the Middle East to remind everyone that he meant that he was Jewish, and it was very important to him. Well, that's nice, but it doesn't do anything for the United States of America. He should be an American and simply say, we Americans are not going to allow Gaza to be destroyed, its population to be expelled. That's off the table. We can't support that. We hear all of this about values day and night. We value Israel. We think it deserves to exist. We don't support people who want to destroy it. On the other hand,

our values dictate opposition to ethnic cleansing and opposition to the mass murder of innocents. And if you look at the bombing that's going on right now. I'm afraid that's an argument that needs to be made, and it's not being made at all. Instead, we're shoveling more money in that direction. And I guess that's probably similar to what we've done in Ukraine. A lot of that money won't really go to Israel. It'll end up paying for more equipment and bombs and weapons that essentially ends up in the pockets of our own defense industries, shareholders, and members of Congress. And what is $20 billion for Taiwan going to do? There's no threat to Taiwan.

Why is he rattling that saber tonight? Well, it seems as though his advisors and his principal cabinet members are advocates for total war. War on everyone. War everywhere. War all the time. You know, this won't work. We can't do it.

We can't afford it. We're going to go under. And I don't know how soon we'll go under, but we'll go under. This is not in Israel's interest. Because if this becomes total war, I think Israel could end up looking a lot like Ukraine, only worse. I don't think that's what we want. I don't want it. I've had my phone is rung off the hook and say, you've got to speak.

You've got to speak and say that, you know, we have to save Israel from itself. I think that's what a president should be thinking right now. We're all sympathetic to what happened to the Israelis. That's not it. That's not up for debate. What we're not sympathetic to is building enemy alliances against Israel. We need to break those up. We need to figure out how to break those up, and we need to persuade the Israelis to help us do that. Colonel McGregor, a great, superb, courageous, precise analysis. Thank you very much, sir. Very much,

very much appreciated by the viewers, by me, and by the many who will continue to watch this. Okay. Thanks, George. Be well, my dear friend. We'll see you again soon. More as we get it. Tomorrow afternoon, of course, the Intelligence Roundtable, a Friday afternoon staple with Ray McGovern and Larry Johnson, Scott Horton from antiwar.com, and little old me, ask the judge any question you want about the subjects that we have been covering. We continue to monitor all of this. If there's major significant developments, we'll pop up here for you. By the way, we're up to 215,000 subscribers. The numbers are growing wonderfully. My profound gratitude and thanks to you. Our goal is a quarter of a million by Christmas. At this rate,

we will meet it and beat it. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thank you.