Judging Freedom - Col. Douglas Macgregor: Escalation at Israel’s Borders

Episode Date: May 28, 2024

Col. Douglas Macgregor: Escalation at Israel’s BordersSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Tuesday, May 28th, 2024. Colonel Douglas McGregor will be here in a moment to discuss Israel surrounded by diplomatic and now military setbacks. But first this. You all know that I am a paid spokesperson for Lear Capital, but I'm also a customer, a very satisfied customer. About a year ago, I bought gold and it's now increased in value 23%. So $100 invested in gold a year ago is now worth $123. If you have $100 in the bank, it still shows $100, but $100 in the bank is now worth 24% less. Inflation has reduced all of your savings, all of your buying power and mine by 24%. And gold is largely immune from that. If you want to learn how gold will soon hit $3,200 an ounce, call Lear Capital. 800-511-4620 or go to learjudgenap.com. Get your

free gold report. Same experts who predicted the 23% rise that I've enjoyed have predicted this $3,200 an ounce gold. Learn about how to transfer this to an IRA. Protect your savings. 800-511-4620. Learjudgenap.com. Tell them the judge sent you. Colonel McGovern, welcome here, my dear friend. Thank you for accommodating this schedule change from a usual time. Over the weekend, depending upon which media report is correct, either one or four Egyptian officers were killed by the IDF at the Israeli-Egyptian border.

What is the significance of this violence, if anything? Well, let me make one quick correction up front. I'm McGregor, not McGovern. Oh, good God. You're half McGovern's age. You are Colonel Douglas McGregor. Right. And I'm not Tucker Carlson. I'm Napolitano.

Hey, it's Monday. Actually, it's Tuesday, but it feels like Monday. Right. I think what's happening right now is of enormous strategic importance to Americans. The importance is really disproportionate to what we think. We're looking at this through the lens of Egypt versus Israel, but it's actually regional and almost global in its importance. So let's start at the lowest level first. If you go into the treaty from 1973, there were certain arrangements made

that gave Egypt control of the border crossing in Rafah and also the so-called Philadelphia corridor, the strip of territory that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza. The Israelis are now insisting that they must control the Philadelphia corridor. And their argument is it's a sieve. Too many things leak through in and out. And if they're going to annihilate Hamas, which is at least in theory their objective, then they've got to close off the Philadelphia corridor. They've got to control it. This is not going down well in Egypt. First of all, Egypt is in a very precarious position right now because it's the largest Arab state in the region.

Its geostrategic position and the Nile River and the Suez Canal make it a gigantic state of infinite influence and power in the region. And at the same time, it's also in turmoil internally. You've got severe debt problems. Yes, there you go. That's a wonderful map. It does a great job of showing the Philadelphia corridor. They've got problems with indebtedness. They've got a population of 100 million living on an infrastructure for maybe 30 or 40 million. Sisi is on very, very shaky ground. Sisi is widely viewed as an Israeli puppet or a U.S. puppet or both, which is extremely bad if you're leading the Egyptian nation as he is. if he does not respond in some decisive way with the use of force against the Israelis, he stands an excellent chance of being removed from power. And we have done nothing to strengthen his position.

We have largely ignored his peril. We've taken it for granted that he will do as he's told, that he will get in line and support what we want to do with Israel. And I don't think that's reasonable anymore. I think he understands that if he is to regain some stature with the Egyptian people, he's going to have to take some kind of decisive action. I'm told by someone who just returned from Egypt that on the streets of Cairo and the other major cities, there is a sense of resignation on one hand that war with Israel is inevitable. In other words, the population has decided this is going to happen. There's not much choice in the matter because they see it as incomprehensible

that he and other Arab leaders would stand by and watch the Israelis slaughter 30, 40, 50,000 people in Gaza and do nothing. So that's one part of the problem. Second part of the problem is that Sisi really is viewed as someone who is no longer legitimate because of the positions he's taken, his complicity in what's happening in Gaza. Now, at the same time that this is happening on the ground, you have something of enormous strategic importance that is receiving remarkably little attention in the mainstream media. And I think we can all guess why that's the case. But this is the Arab-Chinese summit in Beijing, where you have General Sisi from Egypt and his delegation, along with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and his delegation, the United Arab Emirates. They are all gathered in Beijing to talk to the Chinese.

And the subjects for discussion are not just what's happening in Gaza, but the way forward. And there is a growing consensus among the Arabs in the region that two things need to happen. One is that the United States and its influence in the region needs to be stopped because the United States is seen as the power that underwrites the rogue state of Israel from the Arab standpoint. So the United States' influence must be curtailed, and if not completely expelled from the region, then certainly reduced to the point of almost complete irrelevance. Keep in mind that you've had Blinken and Sullivan and Burns running back and forth between the region and Washington trying to smooth things over and hold some semblance of American influence together. Right now, I think we can argue pretty convincingly that our influence is

almost nil. And at this conference, they're going to look at a number of things, one of which is the criticality of trade and commerce between the region and China. Now, if you'll put that map up, we can get an appreciation for what this conceivably means. What are we looking at, Colonel? What's the red and what's the blue? Now, the red is called the North-South Transport Corridor. And this is not a new corridor, per se. That's existed for some period of time there is a port on the indian ocean excuse me the arabian sea which we regard as part of the indian ocean by the way uh as uh

is the red line and this red line reaches from uh shabahar in the south of iran in beluga stan and runs all the way up into Russia. And as you can see, this is a very, very secure and from the standpoint of many people in the region, much more attractive option for trade with Europe than the blue route that you see. The blue route, of course, was established many, many years ago through the Suez Canal between Egypt and India. Well, the feeling is increasingly that given the maritime dominance that the United States continues to enjoy, that this red line could work very, very well for India and ultimately for China in its trade with the Middle East and Europe. And it's important that people look at this map

and understand that it's a mistake to compartmentalize too much. We have a habit of looking at things in Europe from the standpoint of independence or almost insularity for the Middle East. You can't see what's happening today in the Middle East in isolation from what's going on in Europe. Understand that germany once the the scientific industrial giant of europe is on its knees in economic and scientific industrial terms germany is in ruins its population is on the long road to poverty and despair because cheap energy is no longer available to germany oh the germans can buy our energy but the cheap energy is no longer available to Germany. Oh, the Germans can buy our energy, but the cheap energy they need, which would come from the Middle East and Russia,

is no longer at their disposal. And at the same time, the Germans, like the French and others, want to trade with China. And this is another alternative to what the United States wants, which is to obstruct trade with China, obstruct trade with Russia, and to effectively foment discontent and I think he is, he's sitting there in Beijing talking to Mr. Xi, the president of China, and says, well, Mr. Xi, you know, we're in trouble. Egypt is in crisis. We could well be at war in the near future with Israel. Can you help us? Would you help us? Will you invest in us? Can you be an alternative to the support that we've had from time to time, about $3 billion a year from the United States?

And I think the answer he's going to get from Mr. Xi is yes. And I think that the Saudis, who are now talking about investing in that Iranian port along with India, which is nothing short of a monumental strategic game changer in the region, are right on board with General Sisi, as is or as will be the United Arab Emirates. So what's happening in the region today is much more important than just four Egyptian soldiers being killed or wounded by the Israelis. What's really dying at the moment in the Middle East is any semblance of our strategic power and influence. We are now entirely isolated with Israel in the same rowboat with Israel in this ocean of hostility and hatred. No one trusts

us, no one believes us, and everyone wants to do business in spite of us. Colonel, this is a gifted, and if you don't mind me saying, brilliant analysis and understanding, explanation of your understanding of how weak the United States is and how perilous Israel is at the time. Do we know why IDF soldiers wounded and killed Egyptian soldiers? I don't know. And quite frankly, if you listen to the Israelis, they'll say any number of different things. Oh, this was an unfortunate accident. This was unanticipated.

All right. We were compelled to act in our self-defense. Everything is always about self-defense. All right. Just like their slaughter of 45 people in a tent over the weekend in Rafa was, in their view, an unfortunate accident. Well, I'm glad that you mentioned that, Judge, because the backdrop for everything we're discussing strategically is something else that's happening the other strategic sea change is a sudden decision in Germany for instance in Berlin to say that if Mr Netanyahu comes to Germany because of the International Criminal Court he could be arrested now Mr Macron in France has also said the same thing. This is in addition, of course,

to the recognition of Palestinian statehood by Spain, Norway, and I've forgotten who the other participant is. Ireland. Ireland, that's right. You know, things are moving in directions that no one thought were possible. And 20 years ago, I don't think they were possible. But today, this is not just about Israel. This is a signal to the United States. We're prepared to move on without you. Here's something that you might have thought not possible or feasible recently. Here's the Saudi foreign minister on Israel does not get to decide whether or not there will be a Palestinian state. Take a look at this. Cut number one. Israel doesn't get to decide whether or not the Palestinians have a right to self-determination. This is something that is enshrined in the United Nations Charter. It is something that is enshrined into international law.

It is also a founding principle of the United Nations decision to found Israel. So, you know, it is absolutely necessary that Israel accepts that it cannot exist without the existence of a Palestinian state, that its security is served by building a Palestinian state. So we hope sincerely that the leaders in Israel will realize that it is in their interest to work with the international community, not just to strengthen the Palestinian Authority, but to finally establish a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, as everybody understands is the right thing to do.

For October 7th, he and, I guess, Mohammed bin Salman, his boss, and Prime Minister Netanyahu were about to sign documents to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It doesn't sound like that is conceivable now with the current attitude amongst Israelis and position of the Israeli government that there shall never be a Palestinian state. No, I think very clearly those options are foreclosed now by the Saudis and virtually everyone else in the region. There is no longer any room for much discussion. And of course, no one should be surprised by this because Mr. Netanyahu has made it very clear that it's either his way or the highway for everyone. The only state that signs on for unconditional, unquestioned support of whatever Israel wants to do at this point is of course Washington and what people on the hill don't understand is

that the rest of the world thinks differently about its interests now again I have to understand the the interesting position today that Germany is in not just Europe but most important Germany as well as the rest of the populations in the Middle East. The Germans are moving inch by inch, intellectually, mentally, and strategically in the direction of Russia. We are going to see a definitive break between the United States and Berlin in the months ahead, because that's the only way Germany can recover economically and hold its society and population together. And what happens in the Middle East is inextricably intertwined with that German need. Germany has historically had good relations in terms of trade and commerce, not only with Russia,

but also with Iran, and before Iran, Persia, as well as Turkey. The Turks, who are, at least in theory, still NATO members and quote-unquote genuinely allied with the United States, they are having to choose sides as well. And they cannot support us in what we are trying to do in the region in support of Israel. So the whole region is now coalescing into a block of nations that have friends and supporters in Europe and in Asia, all of whom are interested in trade, all of whom want good relations with each other, all of whom support peace and stability in the Middle East, which includes what you just heard, the establishment of a Palestinian state. Now, we can't tolerate that. Neither can the Israelis. So the question is, what happens if we can't tolerate that? Chris, can you put the map up

again, please? Colonel, how dangerous is the alliance along the red line, the new transportation of commerce? How dangerous is that for Israel? And as you answer that, how dangerous is the new alliance being formed, even as we speak, between Egypt and China? Well, you know, I don't want to use the words dangerous as much as, and I don't want to use the word alliance. We toss this word around, alliance. You're talking about a coalition of powers that have an interest, a commonality of interest in trade and doing business. That red line avoids Israel. That's very important because we were trying with the Abraham Accords and with our own notion of the India-Middle East-Europe connection to build something that would favor and support Israel's interests. That's over. Secondly, Egypt can now

turn. I think we'll find this out after the meeting in Beijing is over, will be able to turn to China, and I suspect also Russia, and potentially even to Iran for support. Now, the Iranians, of course, much like the Israelis, play a double game. The Iranians have been interested in fomenting unrest in Jordan and Egypt directed at Israel. Well, Iran at this point has no interest in seeing Egypt or Jordan go under. So I suspect that that will end, particularly if it becomes clear that the Arab, peninsular Arabs, that is Saudi Arabia, UAE, are willing to support the expansion and development of that port inside Iran, which is the hub of commerce and trade between China, India, Russia, and the Middle East. You just stop and consider that.

If you look to the right, everything that you see on the right is avoided by that red line. Everything on the left is avoided. In other words, you're moving through an area that is reasonably stable, and no one is certain that Central Asia will be stable. They would like it to be, and the Russians and Chinese are going to work hard on that. But then there's the other point. Remember our friends, the Houthis, who are sitting down in Yemen. They've made passage through the Suez Canal a nightmare. Now you don't have to worry

about the Houthis anymore. You can go straight up. But this corridor that was supposed to be beneficial in the future to Israel is no longer going to benefit Israel or the United States. This is going to be a strategic boost to the countries in the region that we've talked about, to India and China and Russia. Chris, can you put the map up full screen again? Colonel, is it fair? I'm fascinated with what you said about Germany. I guess that would mean Germany would leave NATO. And I guess Germany recognizes that the United States destroyed the Nord Stream pipeline and brought misery for two winters without adequate heating fuel. Is it likely that that red line, which starts in India and goes up to Moscow, will extend westward into Germany? Yes, absolutely. No question about it. It would be foolish if it didn't.

It makes excellent sense. And that's what I think the Germans will anticipate. Anyone who understands historical dynamics in the regions of the world know that certain things are going to happen because they conform to historical patterns of trade and interest. The Germans have always had a piedmont in economic terms in Central East and Europe and the Balkans. Those areas and the Germans have traded heavily for centuries. Same thing is true for Russia, certainly after Peter the Great. The Germans want to get back to that. That makes sense for them. And that is also the key to trade with China. Why would you want to kneecap yourselves if you're a German and go along with the idea from the United States not to trade with China when that trade

can come across Central Asia as well as along that route that is depicted in red. These things make too much sense. We are up against dynamics over which we have no real control. We are asking people in the region, in Europe, everywhere we go, to do things that are antithetical to their interests. Right. It can't work. It won't work. And let me guess, Chris, put the map up again, and let me guess that everything bought and sold along that red line will not be bought and sold

in US dollars. Oh, of course not. And remember, who is in charge of BRICS this year? Russia. Russia is chairman of BRICS. Who's in BRICS? Just look at the map. Saudi Arabia, Iran, China, Russia. Of course, all of this makes sense. We're talking about a Eurasian community, which is something we in the United States never discuss and don't grasp. We think exclusively in terms of our own interests, and we treat everyone as though they are a discrete chess piece on the chessboard. It doesn't work that way. These countries all have interests that tie them together.

Now, does that preclude the possibility of any conflict in the future? I'm not saying there'll be permanent peace that will break out everywhere, but I think you can make an argument that this is certainly one way to achieve stability and prosperity that does not involve us. The attitude of the State Department that Russia is evil and that we can still drive a wedge between Russia and China. Do they still enjoy that nonsense? My impression is that nonsense is the right word to describe most of what people in the State Department think. And frankly, I would argue that thinking on the Hill, if you sit down and try to explain these things to most members of the Senate and the House, they see everything as an existential threat to the United States. What they don't understand is that we have

contributed enormously to this development. This was going to happen at some point anyway, but we've certainly accelerated it. And we've made ourselves so unpopular and so unwanted that nobody really wants to trade or do business with us if they can avoid it. And that effectively is what BRICS is all about. And that's what this trade route and the development of this Iranian, Indian, and Arabian consortium down there at the point, just before you get into the Strait of Hormuz, this is uh chavahar they're all going to invest in that port because it's in everyone's interest to do so and keep in mind that mr modi as a hindu nationalist hasn't exactly made himself enormously popular in the arab world but their commercial

interests their business interests their strategic interests in in the peninsula and in Iran, Trump, the anti-Muslim attitude that Modi manifests at home. We only have a few minutes left and I need to take you to Ukraine. Is NATO still of the view that they can escalate the war in Ukraine and still have the view that President Putin is bluffing? Well, we say NATO. That's misleading because of the 32, 33 members in that organization. I dare say that there are very, very few that are actually contemplating war with Russia. The fools that are talking in those terms are largely in London, sadly right now in Stockholm and Helsinki, some still left over in Berlin and Warsaw. Paris? Yeah, probably a little bit, but I think Mr. Macron has been briefed by his military advisors and told you're

out of your mind if you think we can sustain anything in Eastern Europe. So I think the whole thing is a facade. I don't see as inevitable some outbreak of war between Russia and the United States or Russia and Eastern Europe. Of course, the Poles are always a potential catalyst for conflict. But I even think there that the Polish electorate is sobering up and recognizes that effectively they'll be the first to be on the firing line if there is any conflict between Russia and Europe. And I don't think very many Poles want that. So I think we have to separate rhetoric from reality. You know, you can sit in London or Oslo and say things that make absolutely no strategic sense at all. You

can do that almost with impunity. You can do it in Washington. But when you're sitting on the border with Russia, if you're close as they are in Berlin or Warsaw or Budapest, you can't really do that without risking the very high probability that they're going to call your bluff. And that's all we can do is bluff. Right. I want to play a clip for you. Probably, according to Larry Johnson, produced by the CIA, it is of President Zelensky, but it's highly stylized with music in the background. It's seven minutes long. We're only going to edit it down to

90 seconds, but I'd like your thoughts on this, Colonel. Cut number nine, Chris. Does Russia want a dialogue? Ukraine has the world's largest experience of lies from Russian during negotiations. Lies that in particular was Russian cover-up for preparing this war. And that's exactly why global efforts are needed. Global peace summit of the leaders whom Russia will not be able to deceive. Summit that will show who in the world really wants to end the war and not just claim the ceasefire, which will inevitably be broken by Russian rockets and artillery, just like as it was dozens, dozens

of times before? To President Biden, the leader of the United States, and to President Xi, the leader of China, we do not want the UN Charter to be burned. Please show your leadership in advancing the peace, real peace, not just a pause between the strikes. The efforts of global majority are the best guarantee that all commitments will be fulfilled. Please support the Peace Summit with your personal leadership and participation. For all of us, it should be a pleasure to make peace. Produced by the CIA, written by MI6, performed by a nightclub actor who is the former president of Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky is making an argument similar to the one that Mr. Netanyahu has made,

that international law has to be interpreted through their eyes, and that international law and the United Nations Charter and every other conceivable form of international uh interaction has to be interpreted in a way that serves their interests therefore they're right everyone else is wrong mr zelensky is finished he's done that might as well have been his swan song he has no future the russians are not. They're absolutely deadly serious. We keep talking about war, they're fighting it. We keep threatening them with war, they're doing it. And if we persist in this stupidity, the only thing we will see is that Ukraine vanishes from the map of Europe,

and something else will take its place. And it might not even be called Ukraine. Who knows? But the resistance to any reasonable discussion makes it inevitable that the Russians will have to crush these people out of existence and move further west. At that point, we're back to our earlier discussion. What do the Germans do? What do the Poles do? And I think the Germans are going to say enough is enough and put an end to it. And when that happens, that will be effectively the beginning of the end of NATO, because NATO at its core was formed and survived because of Germany's membership in it. Colonel McGregor, thank you very much, my dear friend. Thanks for this terrific analysis,

especially the map that the viewers need to know. You gave us the map, and it was the launching point of an extraordinary conversation. Thank you very much, my dear friend. We'll see you again soon. Thank you, Judge. Bye-bye. All the best. Coming up at two o'clock this afternoon, Matt Ho. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thank you.