Judging Freedom - Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Can Ukraine Hold Out Until Election Day?

Episode Date: August 23, 2024

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Can Ukraine Hold Out Until Election Day?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Resolve to earn your degree in the new year in the Bay with WGU. WGU is an online accredited university that specializes in personalized learning. With courses available 24-7 and monthly start dates, you can earn your degree on your schedule. You may even be able to graduate sooner than you think by demonstrating mastery of the material you know. Make 2025 the year you focus on your future. Learn more at wgu.edu. Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Friday, August 23rd, 2024. Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson will be here with us in just a moment on can Ukraine hold off at least until November 5th. But first this. A divisive presidential election is upon us

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Protect your savings and retirement before it's too late. 800-511-4620, learjudgenap.com. Remember, hope is not a strategy, but gold is. Colonel Wilkerson, welcome here, my dear friend. Thank you for your time, as always. Prime Minister, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been in a bunker for the past two and a half weeks. He just emerged once. Does he know something that the rest of us don't? Do you expect the type of assault from Iran that would cause the leader of the country

to have to go underground? That's probably some of the motivation, but some of the motivation and perhaps the more immediate one revealed just a few minutes ago, as I understand from Al Jazeera, a new attack in deeply South in Lebanon by Israel on the city there, Moshayoun.

I think he's more fearful of Hezbollah, frankly. Certainly there is some fear with regard to Iran, but I think he's got that kind of stymied right now, he thinks, because of this very prolonged, deliberately prolonged by him peace process or ceasefire process. I think Hezbollah scares him actually more than Iran right now. Colonel, does Hezbollah have the ability to reach Tel Aviv, to reach his residence or his office or a military command headquarters? I've not been in those very esoteric tunnels and caves and such that are in the mountains, but I hear that the stockpiles there are not only what people have talked about in terms of 150,000

to 175,000 rockets and missiles, but they have grown more and more sophisticated with every week of his prosecution of the war in Gaza, meaning probably that China and Russia have joined the train of people who are funneling things in there for money, of course. I looked at the oil today, Judge. The oil going to Israel and the countries that are providing it might surprise you. Might surprise you. Who's providing it, Colonel? Well, the United States, of course, but Brazil, Turkey. 80% of Israel's oil is coming from countries that could go to court for doing this once this all settles down and the International Criminal Court and the Court of Justice can go after people who are in fact war criminals. Wow. Chris just gives me a report from Reuters,

which is just a few minutes ago, and it's what you said, Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon on Friday killed at least eight fighters and one child. Why are children always killed? The video I was looking at too, it looked like they just hit right in the heart of the city, which is what they always do when they attack Lebanon. They are as interested in destroying Lebanon's ever having any economic capacity again and competing with them as they are in going after Hezbollah. Alistair Crook, one of our regular colleagues, quotes a former director of Mossad as calling Israel under Netanyahu a racist and violent state that cannot survive. That's kind of consistent with what you've been saying, is it not, Colonel? It is. I agree with all of that, except possibly the latter part, which is incumbent upon me to say

because the United States seems to be willing to go the full Monty, we will do anything to preserve Israel. And when you're taking on the United States, even in its present sort of degraded fashion, you're taking on the power in the world. Is the fracture between the IDF and Prime Minister Netanyahu personally and his civilian leadership generally still there and still obvious? Yes. And one wonders if anything is going to come out of that that might be positive. Because, frankly, I don't think anyone else, and this is just my own personal observation, I have talked with one or two people, but I don't think anyone else is willing to take on the responsibilities that Bibi is holding on his shoulders right now. No one wants that burden. No one wants the burden of having to take it from him and make a decision that's different from the decisions that he's making. Not former prime ministers Gantz or Bennett?

I don't think they have, frankly, the political oomph to do it. Understood, understood. Is Netanyahu in danger of a coup? That would be really rare for Israel. I know it's only since 1948 that it's existed, but they have a very unique relationship, much different in many substantial ways than our own, between their military and their civilian leadership. And that would be very much out of character for the state of Israel, even in its current apartheid, racist,

genocide-creating manifestation. Is Benjamin Netanyahu the commander in chief of the Israeli military as Joseph R. Biden is the commander in chief of the American military? No, it's not the same thing. There are two functions that are very different. One is sort of the operational function where when they go to war, the prime minister and the Knesset more or less don't bug the field commanders. They have prerogative. The other part of it is ultimately, and with Bibi, he's maximized this. You don't do anything that is in the field under that prerogative with which he disagrees majorly. So it's a tortured relationship,

really, especially for the military. I mean, there's no civil military relationship like we have in the United States where there are certain lines you can't cross. There's no constitution. It's all sort of just amorphous. And when you have a powerful leader like Netanyahu, it becomes more difficult for the military to do what it might want to do in terms of strategy, operational art and such. In this case, stop. It really would. I think the bulk of the Israeli military realizes that it's spent. It's done its thing, and if Hezbollah really is coming on, or Iran is coming on, or any other power is

going to enter this fray, they're going to have a real hard time holding on, and they're going to have to beg the United States, essentially, for help, and help means substantial help. What is Iran waiting for, Colonel? That's a mystery. I thought they'd take a long time. Remember, we talked about the society. Yes, but did you think it would be this long? Yeah. It has probably to do with the immediate ceasefire peace talks, whatever you want to call them, which are looking more and more like they're Netanyahu and Blinken negotiating with one another than anything else. They're waiting to see if there is anything going to come out of that.

And they probably are planning in a way that they hope, and this is a very difficult hope to fulfill, mind you, isn't detected by Israel. So there will be no possibility of a defense being set up in a way that it might thwart at least a good portion of what they're planning. So that takes time and that takes effort. And it also probably is a lot of dissension and yelling and screaming back and forth, particularly between the leaders of the IRGC as to what they're going to do. How good is intel on Iran? Does Mossad, does MI6, does CIA know what they're up to? Normally they do, especially Mossad, but this would be a very special effort by Iran after having studied much of what Israel has done to this point. I go back to when the Germans

conducted their counteroffensive in the winter of 44, 45 in the Ardennes, and Hitler actually restricted all communications. They could not go over anything ultra would intercept. They could only go by motorcycle, by truck, by car, by pigeon, you name it. That's the way he communicated. And that's why the counteroffensive was so successful initially, because we did not think it was coming. I think the Iranians would be doing something like that. And that takes time. Switching over to Iran, excuse me, to Ukraine, were you surprised to see Indian Prime Minister Modi embracing Ukrainian President Zelensky? I mean, India's in bricks. India is a mainstay of bricks.

What does Vladimir Putin think when one of his bricks buddies is kissing Zelensky? Resolve to earn your degree in the new year in the Bay with WGU. With courses available online 24-7 and monthly start dates, WGU offers maximum flexibility so you can focus on your future. Learn more at wgu.edu. Good question, but I will say this. Modi plays both sides of the street. He's a very astute leader. I don't like his persecution of the Muslims in India, but he's a very astute leader in terms of making sure that India's bona fides are protected everywhere he goes. And he's going to maintain relationships on both sides of the street until it becomes very apparent the street is owned by one power or the other.

Well, isn't it apparent that the street, to continue using your analogy, is not owned by President Zelensky, that he'll be succeeded in Kiev by someone who will surrender to the Russians? Absolutely correct. But it is still owned in part, at least, by the United States of America. And Zelensky is owned by the United States of America. Until the election. Until the election. Right. Until the election.

I mean, here's the bottom line. Can, and we're going to get to Kursk in a minute, and maybe that's the reason for this. Can Ukraine hold out until after November 5th? That's becoming a huge question. I saw the stats on the upper part of the line, and they are losing so many soldiers right now. At any moment, they could cave. They could cave and Russia could pour through. Now, I don't think Russia wants to pour through. I listened to Putin very carefully. He laid it out. He said Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, the two republics up there, and then the other two, Kursan and what's the other one? I can't think of it. Donetsk. Those places, those regions will have to have no Ukrainian troops in them whatsoever.

That's the first requirement for a peace conference. He's almost succeeded in that already. That's what he's looking for. And second, no possibility of Ukraine being a member of NATO. And when that happens and you announce that the last Ukrainian soldier has crossed that line in the sand, so to speak, and gone back the other way, I'm sitting down with you. You can't be more explicit than that. That's what he's been saying all along. But this was truly graphic. corruption and instability and absence of democracy, why would NATO want Ukraine as a member?

That's been a question all along. But Judge, when Powell and I were talking about it, when Kissinger was talking about it with us, when others were talking about it with us, thought Brent Scowcroft, who thought it was a tragic era to expand NATO. We asked the same question about Albania, Montenegro, and other countries that we said, those are the stomping grounds of empire for a thousand years. They never have settled their grudges with their neighbors and such, even to a certain extent, Poland. Why on earth are we taking on Article 5 guarantees for these countries? And the only answer we could come up with was money. In what respect? Money to NATO? Money for the military contractors selling all the apparatus that they wanted to sell. This is

what Bill Clinton set up. 94, I think it was. He set up this commission, mostly manned by military contractors, to determine whether NATO should be expanded. And of course, they said, oh, good idea. I'm going to change the subject matter because of your reference to military contractors. Chris, do we have the lover of peace and the blowhard ready to go? That would be cut number 10 when I call for it.

This is a different subject matter. This is a different time period. Blowhard must be Lindsey Graham. Close. This is 2013. You'll know exactly who these two are the minute you see them. I want you to listen to the last three words that the lover of peace uses at the end of this clip.

I think you will enjoy this. Cut number 10. We say that her positions are radical and they are radical. Let me tell you what's radical what's radical is to send more americans to die in this war which is a monumental blunder by a president who swaggered us into it with by the way the at least tacit approval of the democratic party knows a lot of sin to go around here was radical for you want to send more people to this war

is that your position we cut and run out of there like you want to send more people to this war? Is that your position? If we cut and run out of there like you want to do, we would be putting every American in a thousand times more jeopardy than they're in now. We're going to cut and run anyway, Bill. Well, that's your opinion. Well, it's my opinion. American military leaders have said we're going to draw down beginning next year. The difference is we've drawn down and cut in wars. Now, listen, listen.

You wouldn't send your children to this war, Bill. My nephew just enlisted in the army. You don't know what the hell you're talking about. Very good. Congratulations. You ought to just walk away. How many more young men and women are you going to send to have their arms and legs blown off so that you can be tough and point at people in a kind of cowardly way?

And they knew that, first of all, only Congress can declare war. That you can be tough and point at people in a kind of cowardly way. And they knew that, first of all, only Congress can declare war. Why is that unimportant to you, Billy? Why can't you become the patriot that your loud voice proclaims to be and stand behind the Constitution and insist that we never go to war again without the approval and consent of the United States. Poorly planned and poorly executed, but Bill O'Reilly wants to send more kids to fight and die. We've already had almost 2,000. Just let me have the last word.

In the last year, two things have doubled. The number of dead American troops in Iraq have doubled from over a thousand to almost two thousand. You know what else doubled, Billy? The price of Halliburton stock. That's what I wanted you to hear. The price of Halliburton stock. I saw the look on your face as you were watching that. That brought back great memories. It's a great clip. Chris put it together. We ran it in honor of Phil Donahue's passing this week. But you cannot even imagine, correct me if I'm wrong, Colonel Wilkerson, the influence that the arms manufacturers in America have on foreign policy.

It is astounding. It's grown so much since 2001 that it is astounding now. Eisenhower, who made the original phrase, of course, would just, he's rolling in his grave. Everything he said has come true. He said in that speech, he said it influences every state house, every home, every building, every federal enterprise. He's right. And it is in there like a spider web now. And it influences even the Congress almost as much as AIPAC does. What is your take on the invasion of Kursk? Was it NATO? Was it the U.S.? Could this possibly have happened without MI6 and CIA helping and planning it? There are two versions on the street that I have heard, and both of them have some credibility to them. One is that Austin and others in the government didn't know anything about it.

That could be true even intentionally if the CIA or others like that were the real power behind it happening or U.S. European Command was the real power behind it happening. And they said plausible deniability. You guys don't have to lie about it. I know about it, but you don't know about it. That could have happened. But what I think happened was very light touch, but very important and critical touch in terms of ISR, intelligence surveillance reconnaissance, and in terms of the weaponry and everything. US and other NATO countries were involved in it. But just on the fringe, as it were, very important fringe, but just on the fringe. But what's happened is the very strategic reserve of Ukraine, the only one they had left, the very best fighters,

the toughest fighters, the best trained fighters are now in jeopardy. And they're in jeopardy for nothing more than a tiny salient incurs. And Putin will wrap them up just as surely as he is going to wrap the main line up north of there. And it's over. It's over. And the pain here, Judge, the pain is that we're not going to be able to say it's over. And so many, Phil Donahue's remarks, so many boys and some women are going to die in Ukraine and in Russia because we are waiting for the election before we cut and run. To your point, Colonel, Larry Johnson and Colonel McGregor and the others have basically said that these people that engaged in the incursion are trapped. They can't get back to Ukraine. It's almost literally a noose, the military noose that is just being tightened. Soon they'll have no fuel. They'll have no ammunition.

They'll have no food. What do they do? And the other thing is, Colonel. Putin has every right to say it was an invasion of Russia too. Putin is saying it was a terrorist activity, which under Russian law allows them to slaughter everybody. He doesn't even have to follow the rules of war. Yep. He just gave an interesting speech on nuclear weapons too. He compared our triads

and he said their triad is better than our triad. They're roughly equal. What is a triad and what does that mean? That's the nuclear triad. The submarines, one, the ballistic missiles, two, and the bombers, three. And they are. They're the only other country with equivalent number of warheads. In fact, they have a few more. And they're the only other country with a triad, the submarines, the bombers, and the ballistic missiles.

And he's right, too, that theirs are probably better than ours at this particular moment. One reason why Obama decided to spend almost, well, more than a trillion dollars to modernize, securitize, insuritize our stockpile, which I think is a lot of wasted money. But in the sense of, if you want to keep up with the Russians, it needs to happen. Do you agree with our friend and colleague, Larry Johnson, who makes the following argument? If you want to keep up with the Russians, it needs to happen. perpetuate this invasion because it was American ammunition that killed Russian soldiers, because it was American technicians that operated this ammunition. In the mind of the Kremlin, the United States of America invaded Russia. Does Lawrence agree with that? I think I do agree with that. However, Putin is too circumspect. He's too smart to use that as an excuse to expand the war from his perspective.

He's talking about ending the war now, and I think he's serious about it. He's also at the same time talking about his triad is better than our triad. He said, of course, look at NATO. They spend 40% combined. They spend 40% of the world's billions on the military that the world spends. I spend 2.5% of the world's money spent on militaries. Do I want to go to war with NATO? I mean, that's the insinuation there, nuclear or otherwise. But he's a smart guy. I wish to heck we had someone with half his intellect, someone with half his intellect in Washington. Colonel, who has the better military, NATO or

Russia? That's a debatable question in many respects. Anytime you're fighting with 32 countries and you're fighting with maybe six of them who really wield anything worth a damn, you've got problems. You've got coordination problems. You've got interoperability problems. And don't talk to me about 50 years of NATO and all that because you just have problems when you're fighting with allies. So that's the first detriment for NATO that Russia doesn't have. Second, Russia is fighting essentially for its existence. The main power of NATO, were we to go to war. If I were Putin, I don't want a war with NATO because there's no winner. There is no winner of that war.

There's just ultimate destruction. Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, a pleasure, my dear friend. I love these Friday afternoons with you. I know this is posted and people are going to be watching it over the weekend, but it's a destination for my intellect being able to pick your brain. Thank you very much, sir.

Can I make one more comment? Sure, absolutely. Just one more comment. Powell and I used to talk about in private quarters, we used to talk about Israel's lawyer. Israel's lawyer was Dennis Ross. Think about all the things that happened that Dennis influenced, for example. Now we're talking about Anthony Blinken being Israel's lawyer.

Well, I don't know if you saw it on this show, but Professor John Mearsheimer refers to Secretary Blinken as Netanyahu's lawyer. Well, yeah, Israel's lawyer, Netanyahu's lawyer. That's even better. That's more precise. Yes, yes. And that's more of an in-your-face. Thank you, Colonel. All the best. Have a great weekend. We'll see you next week. You too. Bye-bye. Wow. Coming up, the aforementioned Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern at 345 Eastern, the Intelligence Community Roundtable. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom I'm