Judging Freedom - COL. Lawrence Wilkerson : Is Ukraine Collapsing?

Episode Date: September 17, 2025

COL. Lawrence Wilkerson : Is Ukraine Collapsing?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Don't let an expensive wireless bill disrupt your summer plans. As you map out beach getaways, backyard gatherings, and long weekends, your wireless bill shouldn't be a source of stress. With Mint Mobile, you get the reliable coverage and high-speed performance you're used to at a significantly lower cost. For a limited time, Mint is offering three months of unlimited premium wireless service for just $15 a month, while others are dealing. with overage fees and surprise charges, you can enjoy peace of mind and more money in your

pocket. Say goodbye to overpriced plans and hello to simple, straightforward wireless service. Every Mint mobile plan includes high-speed data, unlimited talk and text, and access to the nation's largest 5G network. Plus, you can keep your current phone number and contacts. Make the switch and get three months of unlimited service for just $15 a month. This year, skip breaking a sweat and breaking the bank. Get this new customer offer and your three-month unlimited wireless plan for just $15 a month at mintmobile.com slash freedom. That's mintmobile.com slash freedom. Up front payment of $45 required.

That's an equivalent to $15 a month. Limited time new customer offer for first three months only. Speeds may slow above 35 gigabytes on unlimited. plan. Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details. Hi there, everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for judging freedom. Today is Wednesday, September 17, 2025. Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson will be here with us on just a moment on, is Ukraine collapsing? But first this.

My friends, if you care about your liberty and your right to control your own future, you need to hear about this. From October 10th to 12th, Mikkel Thorpe, host of the Expat Money Show, is bringing together top experts from around the world for the Expat Money Online Summit, and it's

completely free to attend. You'll learn how to legally protect your wealth, secure second residences and citizenships, reduce your tax burden, and own property abroad, all to safeguard your freedom. This year's focus is on

Latin America where opportunity is booming. Argentina is shifting to free markets. El Salvador is undergoing a dramatic transformation, and Panama and Paraguay are offering simple residency programs. A plan B is no longer optional. It's essential. Reserve your free ticket at expatmoneysummit.com, and if you want VIP access with special perks, including lifetime replay, access and exclusive VIP panels, use promo code judge for 20% off your upgrade. That's expatmoneysummit.com promo code judge. Colonel Wilkinson, welcome here, my dear friend. Always a pleasure and thank you for accommodating my schedule.

I want to pick your brain on drones over Poland and who you think initiated it and was it a false flag and is this Ukraine? grain's last gasp before the triumph of the Russian military. But before we do, last week with United States approval and backing, the Israelis attacked a residential facility in Doha, Qatar, an ostensible ally of the United States. The people they were trying to kill were Hamas negotiators whom the United States had invited to the negotiation. There's been no reaction to this other than some lip service. How can that be? Well, there's been reaction, Judge, a significant reaction, I think. For the Arabs, it's significant reaction. What you've got is a rapprochement,

almost fully blown now developing between Tehran, Riyadh, and other Arab states. And this rapprochement is headed towards a unity in the Persian Gulf that I, for example, as a PACOM staff officer in 1984 and 85 was working to try to achieve post-Iran-Iraq war. We failed miserably because we were opposed essentially by the president of the United States, but nonetheless, we were trying to achieve a security situation, organization, if you will, much better than the Gulf Cooperation Council in that region that would secure the future of the region for some time to come. Remember, we had a relationship with Iran at one time for 26 years. But are you telling me that Netanyahu poked a hornet's nest?

Yes, very much so. I'm happy to be corrected on that, Colonel. And is it going to be more than just lip service? I don't know, but it brings Turkey in now. You may recall that Turkey actually sent troops to Qatar when it was opposed by Saudi Arabia and other of the Gulf states and doing its own independent thing. And it got very close to Iran during that. time. In fact, Qatari and Iranian relations are pretty solid right now. So now it looks

like that solidity is spreading to the other Gulf states because they don't trust the United States anymore and they damn sure don't trust Israel. Well, who would negotiate with Israel when they murder the negotiators? Exactly. I think they found what I have found long ago, that Netanyahu in particular, but this government in general and Israel as a consequence is a duplicitous, lying, sack of, you know, proverbial horse turd, and you can't deal with them anymore. They'll turn on you in the heartbeat. Look at what Netanyahu is doing now. He's discovered China. He's discovered China. He's going to go to China through Iran, he thinks. But he's discovered China and our angst with China. And so he's now talking about China. We want him as an allies. We fight China through Iran, of course, because that's the next one. Who's talking about China? Netanyahu. What is he going to do with China? They think he's a murderer.

Well, he knows how much our concentration is focused on China now because of this huge power shift that's taking place. He knows that what we're doing in the world right now with Ukraine, with the Arctic, with the Baltic and other places, Azerbaijan, Armenia. What we're doing is trying to thwart China, and we're doing Ukraine through Russia to try and thwart China. So he's jumping on the bandwagon. He's an astute man.

He's evil as hell, but he's an astute man. And he sees this as the new recipe for keeping the U.S. on his side. But first, the way you get to China, that new railroad that now spans all the way from the major Pacific ports in China to Iran and on up the Persian Gulf, the way to get to Iran is to suggest China. that's the bottom of the southern if you will of the base road initiatives so he's a smart man but evil is hell but he's smart he's part of the most of the people he's dealing with is he going to attack iran i think so i think so i think it'll happen before thanksgiving if not earlier what is your opinion of nittanyahu going on international television before the shooter of Charlie Kirk was caught and denying that Israel murdered Charlie.

Well, who does this? He didn't just do that, Judge. He misrepresented the letter, and he misrepresented the letter significantly. The alt media, if you will, a number of people after him big time for that, because he lied. He just flat lied. He only read a portion of the letter. What Kirk was saying, in essence, is what he was beginning to say to his Republican youth and other friends in the party and other friends in the MAGA organization. And that is he wasn't sure about Israel.

And he damn sure wasn't sure about the current leadership of Israel and all the killing they were doing. That was where Charlie Kirk was going. Wow. Let me transition to Ukraine and related matters. President Putin personally attended a Belorussian and Russian military war games, and he appeared in full military garb, and he requested that his counterpart from Belorussia do the same. Is there any significance to this? Well, you remember, I told you, I think, I've been on so many podcasts, I can't remember anymore, some time ago that I think Putin has decided we're duplicitous, we're conniving, our power is diminishing, no question about that, and it's time to take exception

in a broad way. I think he's preparing for a war, and he's not insane in that. Preparing for a war with whom? Whoever comes a front of him, and NATO comes to mind immediately. Well, are we, as your friend and colleague, Colonel Astor has suggested, Closer to a war with NATO now than at any time since 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis. Actually, we were closer in 61. In 61, we actually helped the GDR, East Germany, build the Schanmower, the Wall of Shame, the Berlin Wall. We helped them build it because we knew if the GDR kept 10,000 citizens a week coming into the West, it would disappear. and that was existential from Moscow, very close to nuclear war, and Kennedy knew it and handled

it very well. Yes, even that and yes, the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 62, yes, we're closer now to nuclear war than we've been since we invented the weapons. You're talking about in the past 50 years? Yes. What happened over Poland? Whose drones were they? Were they capable of doing a damage? Was this a false flag? Is this the last gasp of Zelensky and company to try and engage another country in the war with Russia? All of the above, but I couldn't tell you how to determine which is which. All I know, it's a tempest in a teapot, and there was no real threat to anyone at any time. And most of it was probably just the, what I'll call the after effects of a large battlefield.

field, but there's unquestionably some conniving in there to try and, for example, influence the polls because the polls had just said no troops in Ukraine. And the polls are looking more and more like they might be sane people after all. So these weren't sent by Moscow, but they were Russian drones. How did they get there? Well, there's so many, here's the first explanation. There's so many drones flying around this battlefield that they could get there errantly, that is to say they just flew off course or they were hit something, something hit them and pushed them off course. Or you could say it was a false flag operation on the other side of that coin and say that they were trying to, you know, get some kind of support continued for the conflict in Ukraine.

Now, Judge, I keep emphasizing, I dealt with these people. people from 2002 to 2005. I had just come off the most sophisticated working group I'd ever been on, the North Korean working group, really cooperation from every element of the interagency group, a wonderful group, very dedicated, and all kinds of political complexions to it. But we all determined North Korea was a criminal state. Judge, in 2003, I determined Ukraine was a criminal state. A kleptocracy is what I called it.

I had to deal with some of their leadership, from Unichiko to Temah, They were all corrupt. Zolensky is a product of that kind of environment. Now, I'm not saying the Ukrainian people are all that way. They don't know what's going on at the top in Kyiv and elsewhere. They don't know how much they're being raped by their leaders pillaged and plundered on a daily basis. And this war is just another case. And we have bought into that, bought into that in terms of the leadership pursuing this

conflict. And it's over. It's done. Putin is won. It is over. And they don't know what to do. And Zelensky's got a billion plus dollars and, you know, private jets and Bugatti cars and villas in Florida and villas in Switzerland.

And any moment he could be assassinated, any moment he could deed him out, leave the place. But it's over for Ukraine. And the only thing keeping it going are idiots in Europe and Donald Trump who can't make a decision. He cannot make a decision. He is utterly incapable of making a decision. He's the man who said he would end the war in 24 hours upon inauguration, and maybe even before inauguration, and all he's done is ramp it up.

That's it. That's it. He's made no decision whatsoever except status quo. All right, Colonel, I don't want to give you heartburn, but I have to play this for you. You'll know who it is, and as you see him and hear what he has to say, and I want your thoughts on it. Chris, cut number nine. If he was winning, he'd be in Keith. If he's winning, he'd be west of the Nipa River.

If he was winning, he'd be on Odessa. If he was winning, he would have changed the government. Russia is, in fact, losing this war. Now, they may make movements and say, well, they're advancing in the Donbass region and in the desk. But if you consider advancing moving by meters, not miles, well, then, okay, that's successful. But if the cost they're having, it's enormous. And I don't think people truly appreciate it. It's a number.

But the numbers they have lost, when you're talking dead in. wounded well over a million they left Afghanistan after losing 18,000 we left Vietnam after losing 65,000 they've lost over a million dead or wounded these numbers are World War II level numbers when you have when you think about it they're stunning in the loss and this is in and their first line units that they came and tried to take key with a little before four years ago those first line units are gone so they've gone through a second or third or fourth iteration of wartime commanders. They're pulling tanks out of mothballs out of museums

put on the battle line. They can't operate in large movements because the Ukrainians would kill him. Does the man know what the hell he's talking about because he whispers into Donald Trump's ear every day? He must he needs to put his brain in mothballs. I've never heard such idiocy in my life, especially coming from a former four-star, three-star general, whatever the hell he was. It's ridiculous He didn't even get the Vietnam casualty count right. It's 59,000. It's not 65,000.

Come on, General. Do your work. Do your work. And the Ukraine conflict, it's about 1.4 to 1.6 million Ukrainian casualties and maybe 350,000 Russian casualties. And he doesn't understand warfare. He doesn't understand the nature of the special military operation, which is not to take territory necessarily, except it is a, as it is incidental to destroying the Ukrainian armed forces, which he is doing quite thoroughly. And he's taking few casualties doing it.

And he's got more tanks than General Kellogg can imagine would be on the battlefield at a single moment. He's got more wherewithal to pursue this conflict into hell if he needs to. But what he wants to do is get rid of any kind of capacity whatsoever within that rump state of Ukraine to harass him with military forces in the future. And if NATO decides to stay with this rump state in a sizable way, he'll take out NATO too. That's what I meant by. He is ready to take on the fading downfalling empire if he has to. Wow. I mean, how can he, how can he make a statement like they're taking tanks out of mothballs and out of museums when Putin is cranking

out new tanks every month. Yes. And artillery rounds at a rate that we couldn't even achieve if we took five more years to try and achieve it. He's got a hell of a defense industrial base behind him. And he's got the people behind him, basically. These people must be in another world. Here's President Zelenskyy last week, boasting about his long-range capabilities.

Cut number five. As regards long-range fires, we were at the moment when practically the United States and other partners were thinking whether to give Ukraine long-range weaponry or not. We have found our own. As of now, we have our own long-range capabilities. We just lack financing. There is financing for drones. I'm not saying that to mock any of the partners, but it's not a solution, right?

For 800 sheheds per day at Ukrainian territory, we need at least 1,500 interceptors. The price of one interceptor is 3,000 euros. That is the answer to how to stop the sheheads. And so that Russia does not want tomorrow, to send 800 sheheads. We must send 1,000 drones to their territory to retaliate. So what we need from the partners to countries to heads, we need financing from our partners.

These are not global decisions. These are fast decisions that must be done today. He matches Kellogg, Judge. He does. I mean, would Trump allow, well, go ahead. And then I'll save my questions. Go ahead, Colonel. It's just incomprehensible to me that he can't do the correlation of forces any better than he does.

I know that's an old Soviet term, but it's an excellent term. Just look at the depth of Russia. Just look at the depth of Russia. Incredible depth from where they are on the front lines all the way out to Vladivostok. The biggest freaking depth on the face of the earth. And he's talking about getting drones and things and fly them in there. Russia could back up 600 kilometers. and be out of total, you know, any kind of deadly range if it wanted to, but it's not going

to do that because it's destroying him. And very soon, I'll make this prediction right now, before Christmas, Zelensky will be dead or gone? Wow. Will Trump allow Zelensky to fire the Erams? Robert says they're not even built yet, much less not there. But would Trump allow Zelensky to fire long and middle range missiles into Russian territory? As I said, this is getting into really dangerous territory. Putin would be in his perfect right under international law or anyone's interpretation of current law or war to take on NATO assets in any of the countries that are, such as Poland, and Poland's no, not acknowledging this

now internally that are supporting the war in Ukraine against Russia. He would be in his perfect right to take these on. So that's probably the next step. And it would be an Erashnik or some other kind of hypervelocity missile. And you would disappear NATO assets as they existed in these other countries surrounding Ukraine. That would be the next step of escalation. He doesn't want to do that because he knows once he gets on that escalation ladder, he's making war with NATO virtually inevitable. You just predicted that by Christmas, just three months from now, President Zelensky will be dead or are living elsewhere and no longer

purporting to be the head of state in Ukraine. That's what I say. Does that mean that the special military operation will be over? And whoever or whatever succeeds him will, I'm going to use an old-fashioned phrase, sue for peace. That's up to whatever the Ukrainians managed to achieve. in a follow-on government. And I can't answer there because I... Are we talking about somebody rational and the name is escaping me? He's the Ukrainian

ambassador to London. Are we talking about these supernationalists, these crazy bandarists that have surrounded and threatened Zelensky? There are quite a few of those left. So if Putin can't root them out almost individually and take care of them, then they're going to be around and they're going to present a problem. But I think it's going to be a problem that will be residual. and recurring over time in any kind of peace that is achieved rather than one that prevents a peace being achieved.

As I've said many times, it won't be Russia. If a peace broke out tomorrow and the UN put forces in between the two waging war bodies if that were achieved, it wouldn't be Russia that would break that peace. It would be Ukraine right off

the bat and they would continue to break it as long as they could get away with it. Colonel, what is it that causes you to conclude that Zelensky will be dead or gone in three months? Because the situation on the battlefield is so dire right now that if Putin wanted to

he could close it off. As Kellogg suggested it he should do, he could go back to old tactics like for example they used against the Vermont from the Vistola all the way into Berlin. He could go back to those kind of tactics and overwhelm the entire remainder of the country

in quite short time. He could come in from Belarusia, as well as from the direction he's already headed in. And he could even come in from the south with additional forces. There are lots of Russian troops ready to go in addition to the ones that are on the battlefield. So if he wanted to go back to that kind of blitzkrieg-like warfare, like the Russians conducted after Kersk all the way to Berlin, he could. He doesn't want to because all he wants to do is destroy the remaining capacity of the Ukrainian military to bring any kind of threat, Russia. And hence his slow, methodical pace, which General Kellogg just doesn't get.

Kellogg reminds me of one of those French generals like Foch or one of the British generals in World War I who thought the success on the battlefield was measured by the number of casualties you take, which is, I'm glad I didn't live then, Judge. Yes. Thank you, Colonel. Thank you for So much for your passionate and deep analysis of all this. I hope you'll come back and visit with us again next week. A week without Lawrence Wilkerson, it's not a happy week here. Well, I wish other people felt that way. I'm your champion, Colonel. Thank you so much. All the best. Thank you. Take care. Right. You too. Coming up at 3 o'clock, Phil Giraldi, at 4 o'clock on all of this,

including the United Nations rather detailed and lurid report on the nature and extent of mass starvation in Gaza. Professor Jeffrey Sachs, Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thank you.