Judging Freedom - Dr. Gilbert Doctorow: How the War in Ukraine Will End.

Episode Date: January 2, 2025

Dr. Gilbert Doctorow: How the War in Ukraine Will End.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, January 2nd, 2025. Happy New Year to everyone. Professor Gilbert Doctorow joins us in just a moment on how will the special military operation in Ukraine end. But first this. We're taught to work hard for 35 to 40 years. Save your money, then live off your savings. Unfortunately, there are too many threats undermining the value of our hard-earned dollars. The Fed's massive money printing machine is shrinking your dollar's value. there are too many threats undermining the value of our hard-earned dollars. The Fed's massive money printing machine is shrinking your dollar's value.

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They help me diversify into gold and silver. They can help you, too. Call Lear today at 800-511-4620, 800-511-4620, or go to learjudgenap.com. Professor Doctorow, a pleasure, my dear friend. Welcome here. Happy New Year to you and your family. What do you think is the state of Russia today, its economy, its political stability, its perception of itself? Well, wars make nations and Russia is no exception. From the start of the special military operation, there has been a dramatic change in Russia's

self-perception, that is of the large majority of the population, extending to the most critical and difficult stratum of the population, the intelligentsia. They have become patriots, which was not the case before. They have a lot of self-confidence, and the economy is helping them. I was noting with interest the usual critical remarks made about Russia, whatever they do there in the Financial Times, saying that Mr. Putin has a hard time recruiting people for his armed forces now because they've had to raise the level of pay for sign-up.

Yes, of course they have, because the salaries of working men have doubled in the last year. So of course we would have to make an incentive to those who are leading work and taking on the risks of war that much higher. The economy is doing very well. The Russian average person, as I say, is enjoying wealth that he did not have before. And that is driving inflation. It is more money chasing in the hands of people who spend what they receive, not save it, but spend it because they always were hand to mouth. Well, now they have more in their hands and they're spending it on goods and the goods have not increased in volume sufficient to keep pace with the money in their hands. So that explains the inflation, which still is 9 percent. It's nothing dramatic.

And the Russian central bank is doing what it can to control it. But the mood is optimistic. The feeling is that the war is coming to its conclusion, meaning to a successful Russian victory on the ground. And there hasn't been too much news these past couple of days because it's a holiday, because people were celebrating the New Year in Russia, which has all the power of Christmas and New Year's combined there. But what has come out is, for example, today the announcement by the Ministry of Defense that they have taken full possession of the town of Korakula,

which was one of the important towns under contention for the last month or more. And we can see and expect that they will take the still more decisive logistical hub of Pokrovsk in the coming weeks. What this means is that they have crossed the 50% line in how much of the Donetsk region they possess, and they're going for the finish line, which is at Dnieper River. I think that is within grasp, and I wouldn't be surprised if they reached Dnieper before Mr. Trump's inauguration. President Putin has indicated a desire to speak with President-elect Trump after he's inaugurated,

and Donald Trump has indicated a reciprocal desire. What do you think Putin wants from Trump? What will he ask for? What will his goal be in whatever conversations they have? The Russian goal is to put the discussion of a peace in Ukraine in the broader context of a revised security architecture for Europe. And that can only be discussed between Putin and Trump. They do not have an interest in Moscow in talking to the European Union or NATO member states in Europe

because they consider them all to be the proxies for the United States. They consider them all to be taking direction from the United States. So they want to go to the source, which is not surprising. If you were a student of the Soviet Union as I was, you know that the Russians never had much interest in dealing with individual West European countries. And they always compared themselves and looked for doing a deal, cutting a deal with the United States. That's the case today.

I think that Mr. Putin wants to just discuss with Donald Trump what NATO will look like going forward, how all sides, European and Russian, can find security if the role of NATO is redefined or if it's dissolved. This will be the subject. And here, when you speak about dissolution or downscaling NATO, I think Mr. Trump is the right person. He's made it plain that he's not a fan of NATO. So that is the subject. And that is why, despite everything that Mr. Kellogg has put out and other spokesmen for the incoming Trump administration have said, all of which the Russians do not take seriously,

particularly the notion that a deal could be done by extending the suspension period for Ukraine's joining NATO. Absolutely excluded. Mr. Lavrov said that flat out in his press conference last week. So that is excluded. So why would they bother to see Trump? Because they have something different to talk to him about. I guess the war cannot really be ended

without a resolution of NATO's role in Europe, without a recasting of NATO's role in Europe. That's how I read what you just said. And you've also stated, I think quite correctly, that Donald Trump is the person to do it. Yes. No, they understand that, and they're not put off by these various proposals that have been produced

by Kellogg and have gone to the press. They understand that this is not coming from number one. It's coming from his advisors and that, in fact, Mr. Trump takes counsel with himself, or perhaps with Elon Musk. You know, one wonders about General Kellogg because he sounds as bellicose as Tony Blinken. He doesn't hold any portfolio. He's not even going to be nominated to a position that requires Senate confirmation. And the soon-to-become Secretary of State, who's still a United States Senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, hasn't uttered a peep about any of

this. Kellogg is confusing people. It doesn't sound the way Trump sounded during the campaign, and the Russians are wise to dismiss it. One wonders why the general, he is a retired four-star general. Why General Kellogg is even in the mix? I mean, there cannot be a resolution, a peaceful resolution of the special military operation if NATO has any future claim to Ukraine. So the idea that could happen in the future is just something that Lavrov and Putin won't accept no matter how far in the future it is. Am I right? Yes, I don't think they have a choice. Russia is not a dictatorship. Russia is a democracy of a sort, not the same as ours, but it is a democracy. It has votes that are not forced. It has legitimacy in casting ballots. And it also has, Mr. Putin is a politician.

He's a statesman, but he's a politician. And he has to face pressures within his entourage and further afield. This war has gone on much longer than anybody anticipated for a number of reasons that most of the critics in the West, including some very sincere and well-respected people like Craig Roberts, don't quite get that Putin has not had a general mobilization. He has sought to carry out his special military operation with a relatively low number of troops assigned to the task certainly not adequate to storm ukraine and run through it in a matter of

days or weeks no no he's he's doing it in a deliberate way which keeps the the public at home out of the war in the sense that there is no draft. Mothers aren't up in arms, wives are not up in arms about their loved ones being sent off to the war. And it is a political solution by a supremely experienced political operator, which is what Mr. Putin is.

He has to consider the realities. If he were to have a general mobilization, there would be a lot of political disturbance, just what the United States would like to happen. But he isn't allowing that. By playing it slow, by working his way steadily with the limited forces that he can muster by means of the sign-up volunteers. So how does the war end, Professor? With the collapse of the Ukrainian army, I think that once the army goes, then the political establishment around Mr. Zelensky will crumble and they'll all be looking for the first plane out.

They are there because the army has resisted and resisted valiantly. I think the audience has to appreciate that this is not Russia flattening Ukraine in one blow and that the Ukrainians, despite everything, are mostly not running from the front. Every day, the Russian forces in one place or another find themselves in counteroffensive. Small ones, which they defeat. Nonetheless, the enemy is not running away.

The enemy is being pushed back. And the momentum on the Russian side is precisely to prevent the Ukrainians from having the time or the engineering possibilities to build protections, to defend themselves through earthworks or concrete bunkers or whatever. The Russian army keeps on moving, advancing, and does not allow the Ukrainians to establish defensive positions. That is the first and most obvious reason why Russia cannot agree to a ceasefire.

Can you foresee a division of Ukraine like Germany was divided after World War II? Well, this question is very topical, and it was raised and brought to the attention of all of us in the West by Dmitry Treinin, who is a senior military analyst, think tank person, a member of the highest, most respective consultative groups on foreign and military issues in Russia, in the Kremlin. And Training published an article less than two weeks ago in which he was proposing various outcomes for this war, including the division of Ukraine into a good Ukraine, which would be the territory east of the Dnieper River, minus those parts of this geography that Russia considers strategically essential for its security. Another substantial withdrawals,

precisely we're speaking about Odessa and Nikolaevsk and Kherson. These territories pose a threat to Russia if they are inhabited by hostile forces. So they would be taken out. But what would be left in this land east of the Dnieper River could be our Ukraine, a friendly Ukraine, a country with sovereignty, but disposed towards Russia and receiving assistance from Russia in reconstruction. Then all of the nasties, the neo-Nazis, the Bandera fans that are determining the policies in Kiev today, they would be pushed west into the Lvovshchina, into the Lvov area, the area of Ukraine that was, if you look back historically, never part of Russia. It was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire

and always was fomenting anti-Russian Ukrainian nationalism from the end of the 19th century. This part of Ukraine, Mr. Train said we could cede to let Europeans look after it, let them pick up the pieces. We don't want it, it would cost us too much to administer, so leave that alone. Well, that is one proposal by a very well respected and intelligent military expert that has been making the circles of discussion. And I and some of our peers have been addressing it.

My particular view is that a divided Ukraine in that respect is not workable for the same reason that you have to consider what happened to divided Germany. It reunited. So what would prevent the pro-Russian, free, independent, sovereign Ukraine to decide to reunite with the baddies on the other side of the Dnieper River. Nothing. And so I think that is a faulty notion that Ukraine can be divided. And as I said, the nature of Ukraine, where its borders are, is a minor part of the big story.

The big story is NATO and Russia's relations with NATO. The Ukraine is a threat to Russia only if NATO exists and is able to use Ukraine against Russia, as it has been doing the last 14 years. And what happens if Donald Trump closes the spigot of military supplies and ammunition and cash on January 21st? I think the capitulation of the Ukrainian army would follow in a few weeks. The Europeans are in no position to provide the artillery shells, the new artillery pieces, the rapid fire missile launchers,

like HIMARS, they don't have that. And so the ability of the Ukrainian army to defend itself would be reduced to nil in a very few weeks, and the ultimate result would be capitulation. Can President Putin, excuse me, can President Zelensky survive capitulation? I mean, literally survive it? Or would he be killed or forced into exile by the nationalists? Well, I think you just identified it.

And it's not a secret issue. Every time that there was a possibility of a negotiation and a peaceful solution, the people around Zelensky, these what they call the rednecks, the neo-Nazis, they made it plain that he would be lynched and he's not a stupid man. So I think that he would find his way on the first plane out if it looked like a situation was coming. Can you explain to us, Professor, Dr. Rowe, the situation with the Russians' sale of natural gas to Europe, which passes through, I think I have this correctly, Ukraine, and which has now been turned off, and which has resulted in skyrocketing

petrol prices at the pump in Europe from the people from whom President Zelensky has sought help? Is he biting the hand that he wants to feed him? Well, it is an anomaly, of course, that Ukraine continued to supply Russian gas to Europe, taking its tips. Well, tips are not so bad. There's a 20% or 15% tip they were getting for the transit fees. The latest estimate is that Russian gas traveling through Ukraine was being delivered to Europe at a level of $6.5 billion a year, of which $1 billion, between $800 million and $1 billion, was paid back to Ukraine for its services. As to Russia, the loss of $6 billion in sales of gas is not a big deal.

The likelihood is that some of this gas will nonetheless be delivered to Europe by further expanded LNG deliveries from Russia. Despite everything, in 2024, Europe imported more liquefied natural gas from Russia than it did in 2023. That is the economic loss to Russia. This is not great. Let's consider going back to 2000, 2005, 2006, especially in 2009, there were very bitter conflicts between Moscow and Kiev over Ukrainians siphoning off gas from the pipelines, gas that should have been sent on to Europe and taking it into their own distribution system for their domestic needs illegally. There was also a major

dispute which caused a shutdown of Russian deliveries of gas into Ukraine over the non-payment for gas by Ukraine. So these relations were very difficult going back, as I say, to 2005. But it should end now. It's only logical. It is an anomaly for Zelensky to be demanding daily more sanctions on Russia. We shouldn't be buying anything from them when his own country is facilitating this $6 billion sale of Russian gas. consequences to consumers and industries in Europe to Zelensky's decision to close down that pipeline literally in the past 48 hours? Well, the most vulnerable country is Slovakia, and that's why Fico made this unexpected visit to Moscow. This is what comes back a week uh to discuss with with vladimir putin what his um alternative sources of gas may be and what action he could take or russia would take to ensure that he gets gas there are three countries in central europe that are affected by this there's austria hungary

and slovakia slovakia is the most exposed. Austria has found alternative sources, mostly coming, this is LNG gas that is sent on through the European-wide gas pipelines to Austria. Some of the same solution has been found by Mr. Orban, though he seems to be receiving substantial deliveries of Russian gas through the Turkish flight lines. I don't know whether that can be extended to Slovakia to help Mr. Fico out of his problem. But if there is this very big inflation in cost of gas at the pump in Europe or elsewhere, it is a speculative bubble, which I don't believe has any justification, because we're speaking about a 5% shortfall in European gas that could result from the turnoff of the Ukrainian pipelines, and that can possibly be compensated

for by other means, either increased LNG deliveries or other providers. I don't mean this to sound in a snarky way, but has the Nord Stream pipeline been repaired? I've seen various accounts that they are not substantiated, and I can't say that they are reliable, that the Russians have linked up the Nord Stream pipeline with Kaliningrad, so they would get some benefit from their own gas. Otherwise, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is still workable. It's the Nord Stream 1 that was destroyed and really not destroyed in a way that is irreparable.

I've heard discussions that were for a billion dollars or something like that. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline can be returned to service. So if and when this war ends, if and when the Europeans come to their senses, if and when the elites that are presently pursuing this self-destructive policies of isolating and cutting off Russia, if one day are pushed to the side, then it's entirely thinkable that the Russian supplies of gas could be increased very substantially, very quickly. President Trump has invited President Xi of China to his inauguration. As far as I know, President Xi has not yet responded. If he invites President Putin, do you think President Putin will come?

Not if he's going to be arrested. No, the United States is not part of the the the the court. But I don't

think that the security would be would be very promising considering the state-to-state relations. But anything is possible. Mr. Trump pulls more than one rabbit out of it. Professor Doctorow, a pleasure, my dear friend. Thank you for joining us. Happy New Year to you and your family.

I hope you'll join us again next week. Very kind of you, and I look forward to it. All the best. And thank you. And coming up later today at one o'clock Eastern this afternoon, Scott Ritter at three o'clock, Professor John Mearsheimer at five o'clock, Max Blumenthal, Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thank you.