Judging Freedom - Drone War in Ukraine & Russia - Tony Shaffer

Episode Date: May 31, 2023

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2023. It's a few minutes after 11 o'clock in the morning here on the East Coast of the United States. Tony Schaefer joins us now. Tony, always a pleasure. Welcome back to the show. Welcome back to the United States. And where's my chocolate? Oh, thank you. I had a great time in Switzerland. My lectures, if I may say so, were well received. And I have to tell you, there were a lot of Judging Freedom fans there. Excellent. From Switzerland and from that part of Germany.

It was deeply, deeply moving, the folks that came because they wanted to touch the flesh. I'm looking forward to my Swiss chocolate, just saying. I'll expect that. Okay. Two days ago, some Russian drones exploded in a high-end residential neighborhood in Moscow. Right. I've seen some pictures of that. Okay. Gary will run a picture. Here we go. This is taken from one residential neighborhood looking across the way to the other. I can't tell how powerful that is, but that's a lot of exhaust from a drone.

What do you think that was? Look, that was quite the payload. I would suspect that's at least 500 pounds, maybe a thousand pounds of high explosive. That red tint, I don't know what it means. I'm not an EOD guy, but there's a red tint to the explosion. So it probably would tell an expert what kind of explosive it was. And yeah, I was, I was meant to do, you know, I'd be moving out of that neighborhood if that happened in my neighborhood, just saying so, but so where's, okay. The red tint is what we saw in the initial part of the explosion. Is that what you meant? Yeah, yeah. So, I mean, I'm sure, I'm not an EOD guy, but I'm sure the EOD guys, just from the color of the explosive, can tell you what kind of explosive that was.

So, I look forward to kind of hearing from them what that was. I've watched it about four or five times. I didn't know the significance of that tint. Thank you for educating me. Well, it's like anything that has it on the spectrum. You can tell a lot on the electromagnetic spectrum of what it is that's how they analyze what's around other stars judge i mean okay let's uh let's unpack this yeah um is this likely to have been fired by the ukrainians from ukraine bearing in mind Moscow is 620 miles as the crow flies from Ukraine.

So I understand from sources, I believe to be credible, that the Ukrainians took and modified old Russian systems they had. Some of those things were related to aircraft that they modified to make them into drones. Some of these things go back to the old Soviet Union. I'm not completely familiar. I'm not a munitions expert. I'm not that guy. But I can tell you from sources which have been studying this that apparently they took some of the old stocks of weapons that they had during the time they were part of the Soviet Union and have been trying to modify those into essentially drones, which can carry pretty big payloads. This may be one of them. And remember, if you're using old Soviet technology, they're not going to be all that accurate because I don't think they've been able to successfully marry satellite technology to the weapons because

that's what makes our weapons so devastating is that the satellite control taking them into the target. So to me, that lacks, that is clear indication they may have been able to modify these things, Judge, but they don't have the guidance system necessary or capable of actually guiding into a precise target. Do your sources indicate to you whether President Putin's residence was the target? No, that's not something that I've been able to obtain. I'll be talking to some folks later today. If we talk later this week or early next, I should have some of that by then, but not at this point. What does an explosion of this magnitude, you said it could have been 500 to 1,000 pounds, tell you about Russian air defenses? Well, look, a kid in a Cessna flew into the Kremlin back in

the 80s, Judge. I mean, if you're flying low enough, you can pretty much evade most radar systems and be undetected. So I don't think that's any great feat. Remember, the S-300, S-400 are really designed to defend against more of the 21st century modern technology. Some of these low-tech threats, if these things are flying fairly low and slow with a fairly good ability to avoid observation, you can fly a long way without detection. So I think it's indicative of the fact that certain technologies are hard to defeat. A drone flying low with a high payload is very difficult to defeat unless you have aircraft kind of looking down constantly over the horizon. So I don't believe this is any, this is good or bad. Let me switch gears a little bit to your intel background

what american intel have been aware of these drone strikes before they were launched again we have if we have people on the inside being able to report it becomes the Coventry dilemma. Remember during World War II, we had ultra, British and United States had ultra. And one night there was indicators from the center step that the city of Coventry, which I've been to, by the way, beautiful city in England, was going to be bombed. And Churchill had to make a decision. Do I tell the people of Coventry that a bombing is coming and make it obvious we knew they were coming, or do I not say anything? So in this case, I don't know if we have that intel or that level. For something like this, you would not be giving up.

You would not be telling anybody about the fact you have this level of intel. So I don't know at this point. But politically, it would make a difference, would it not, if the U.S. signed off on this? Well, of course. Or if President Zelensky and his people are wild cards who think they can send bombs to Putin's neighborhood? Well, let me answer it this way. I don't think the Ukrainians are doing anything extraterritorial outside their borders without checking with the United States first. I think they're going to run it by the United States every time before they do it. So the answer is, I think if it was the Ukrainians, the United States

definitely were at least informed of the intention of Zelensky and his government. Do you know if we would have been in a position to say, what are you crazy? Do you want to start World War III? Aim at his troops, not his house. No, I think it would have been like, well, why did you take us, take you so long to get to this point based on the current leadership? Again, if you're going to, to Burns at CIA, you're going to Newland and, and Blinken at state, there's not going to be any hesitation. And as, you know, as much as I, you know, look, I worked for General Austin when he was in Afghanistan. I respect the man, but he's not going to push back.

So I would say that there's nobody in adult leadership, and Jake Sullivan's not going to say a darn thing either. So there's nobody there who's going to put any restraints into the system. Okay. Let's, to support your theory, take a listen to Victoria Nuland. This is last Friday, so this is five days ago. And even as you plan for the counter-offensive, which we have been working on with you for some four or five months. We are already beginning our discussions with the Ukrainian government and with friends in Kyiv, both in the civilian side and on the military side, about Ukraine's long-term future. Start with the first part. Now, I don't know to whom she's

saying that. It sounds like she's speaking to ukrainian officials does it surprise you that the american state department she's number three in the state department yeah has quote been working with you on the spring offensive for four to five months four to five months ago was january right well first off let's put it in the proper framework. This is supposed to be a spring offensive, which I don't think is going to get off the ground until midsummer. I mean, just look at the level of competence here. Judge, these people couldn't figure out a way to win a war if they had the entire D-Day invasion fleet behind them. That's how incompetent they are. And this is another more incompetence by

this play. This is what you get when woke goes to war. As a matter of fact, I'm working on an editorial where I outline how completely insane how they're doing this is not only. At whom are you aiming this criticism? The DOD, the Department of State, Victorian administration, the Biden administration. When woke goes to war, this is what you see. You see politicians like Newland being the ones who are trying to push and determine battlefield decisions. Think about that. I don't know Newland's complete background, but I'm pretty sure she's not had any uniform service, understands any concepts of logistics, of strategy, of tactics, of any of that. Yet she's the one who's been quote-unquote helping. I'd rather have

a private who at least went through basic training helping me. But this is all political. The fact that she's saying this is political. This is not a war to help the Ukrainian people defeat the Russians. This is a political narrative driven by huge funding that's being done by the Biden administration with complete disregard to what they're going to damage on the mark, right on the mark. Gary, play Victoria Nuland again just to raise Colonel Schaefer's blood pressure. And even as you plan for the counteroffensive, which we have been working on with you for some four or five months, we are already beginning our discussions with the Ukrainian government and with friends in Kyiv, both in the civilian side and on the military side, about Ukraine's long-term future. What is she talking about? Conversations about Ukraine's long-term future? Is their puppet, President Zelensky, not enough of a puppet for them? They want to replace him just as they replaced his predecessors? Well, I want to find out who their friends are because I want to go party with them. I mean, you know. No, I mean, seriously.

Who speaks like this? Oh, we're going to talk to our friends. Really? Are you going to take them out to dinner, too? You're going to take them to Pizza Hut for a pizza or what? It almost sounds as though the United States State's Department is going to recalibrate, reformulate, restructure the Ukrainian government when the war is over. Judge, she was part of the color revolution back and started kind of rolling in the 13, rolled into 14. She's basically, she's basically stating, in other words, ukraine is now a wholly owned subsidiary

of the united states and we're going to tell you ukraine our friends what you should be doing and not doing relating to your future that's what that's what this is says to me is that yeah we'll just tell you how to do that by the way this is a neocon thing neocons do this as a matter of fact i was on with uh on art what was it on uh al hurra tv one time with one of the guys from brookings who basically uh michael i can't remember his last name michael basically said uh oh yeah we'll just pick the leadership of afghanistan it's like what that's what that's how these people think so i'm just telling you that yes if if if zelinski ain't getting the job done they'll pick someone who can. They're friends. Here's the prince of the neocons himself, Senator Lindsey Graham with President Zelensky over the weekend.

Nice to meet you. We have a meeting. Thank you very much. Thanks, United States people of the United States for all big support. Thank you so much. Free or die. Free or die. Now you are free. Yes. And we will be.

And the Russians are dying. It's the best money we've ever spent. Thank you so much. The Russians are dying. It's the best money we've ever spent. Thank you so much. The Russians are dying. It's the best money we ever spent. Irresponsible or flattering or what? Well, three things. First off, it's not it's it's yeah, our money. And I don't remember voting for my money to be spent on Ukraine defense. So that's first off. Secondly, the bellicose language is not in our interest to have that said judge i mean the whole idea here is that we're having um such

blatant aggression against the russians it's not our interest to be taken on the russians at this point it's not it's just simply not frankly, we're not in a position to actually do anything militarily anyway. So for Graham to say that, again, it just reminds me of how completely dangerous the neocons are. And I've never been a neocon. I've always been critical of multiple administrations who put them in positions of authority because if you're a neocon, everything looks like a war and they want to use any military force they can to achieve political objectives. I think that's what Graham is saying here. So you have two really reckless and irresponsible statements made on the international stage by well-known government officials. the Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs, saying we've been working with you for four to five months on the spring offensive. We're still with you. We're preparing for a government, whatever,

after the war is over. And Senator Lindsey Graham, a general in the Air Force Reserve, but on the legal side. He's a lawyer, General. I can't imagine if he carried a weapon or flew an F-16, but whatever. A person who's familiar with the military, nevertheless, saying the best money we ever spent was to kill Russians. Are these statements normal?

They're not normal in any circle I run in. I mean, look, I've been in the rooms with leaders, as you know, for most of my career, advising and assisting and actually being in charge of military units. And I've never seen the like of this sort of language. I mean, as you know, I still meet with senior folks from previous administrations and people who have decorum would never have said those things, Judge, without understanding there's going to be consequences for saying those things.

Senator slash General Graham called for President Putin's assassination a few months ago. Do you remember that? I do. And I think, again, it's inappropriate. I mean, the whole concept of regime change is inappropriate. If we haven't learned our lesson already, Judge, from Libya, from Syria. You don't want to create ungoverned space.

And the moment you assassinate Putin, you make Russia potentially ungovernable and all sorts of problems, especially with a country with nuclear weapons. You don't want to do that. It's just stupid. And yet they're willing to use Ukraine as a battering ram because they still think they can drive Putin out of office or by some miracle liberate Crimea. I don't know if we have that other quote.

They're not going to liberate. They're not going to get anywhere near Crimea. I mean, there's one where she calls for the Ukrainians to invade Crimea with American support. I mean, that is irresponsible to the point of being reckless, given who she is. I mean, she can have whatever opinion she wants, but she's number three in the State Department with a budget and some sort of a secret army she can manipulate. As I said, Judge, woke goes to war. This is what happens when woke goes to war. This is the ultimate, this is foreign policy, woke stop. Let me show you a far more responsible spokesperson on foreign policy, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. It's a little long, but it's worth listening to.

It's articulate and it's instructive in my opinion. You made a great deal about 1956 and fighting for freedom. You have a neighbor who was invaded by Russia, the very country. You grew up with pictures of tanks going into Budapest. Why are you opposing the European aid? No, no, it's emotional. It's tragic. So all of our heart is with the Ukrainians.

We understand how much they suffer. But I'm speaking here as a politician who should save lives. So the most important thing for the international political communities to save lives, especially when you are convinced, as I do, that there is no chance to win this war. So therefore, what we should do far more energy invest into, to convince everybody that the only solution is ceasefire. And then after the ceasefire, peace talks should start. And then we could go back to your point. But do you really think there is no chance of ukraine winning that's my surely the main surely the they stand very little chance of winning without the aid which

you are currently blocking no no my my position is that uh looking at the reality looking at the figures looking at the surroundings looking at the fact that nato is not ready to send troops, it's obvious that there is no victory for poor Ukrainians on the battlefield. Yeah. Tell me he doesn't have a fabulous handle on this, Tony. This is the same thing we've been saying as experts for the past six months. The numbers aren't there and unless there's outside direct support in NATOo it's over it's done it's just a numbers game i keep telling people it's like my job is to call balls and strikes and this the the we're in the bottom of the eighth inning

uh the russians have over you know their bench is full the ukraine's bench is empty the ukraine's have two two strikes uh on the on the guy up with two outs. The Russians are going, there's just no way. And again, as Orban said, this is the most articulate I've seen of any European leader speak about the reality which they're facing. And he's a member of NATO. He is a member of NATO. He has influence in NATO. Yeah. Where's the rest of NATO? I think NATO feels like this. What he's really saying is, I think, if Joe Biden is right, why isn't NATO sending troops to the field?

So, look, I think more of NATO feels like this than they're willing to say. I think he's representing probably two-thirds of NATO. Judge. I know this wasn't on the list of things talked about today, but, you know, we just saw that the elections in Turkey, basically Erdogan got reelected. Erdogan's not pro-Western interference in Ukraine. He's actually more on Putin's side at this point, and that's the direction of their foreign policy. So you've got Orban, you've got Turkey, now both, you know, Hungary and Turkey both saying we ain't game for what's going on in Ukraine. It's time to negotiate a ceasefire. So that's the reality. It's just the Biden administration and Victoria Victoria Nuland in some alternate universe. I think we lost you, Tony.

You still there? I'm here. Can you hear me? Oh, okay. The last thing I heard you say was the Biden administration and Victoria Nuland are living in some alternate universe. Oh, I'm sorry. I started going. No, Victoria, just let me say that again. So as far as I'm concerned, Judge, Victoria Nuland and the Biden administration are living in some alternate universe that has no relation to the feelings of those who are leading NATO at this point. To the point where if Viktor Orban, and I'm predicting, got Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky to agree to talk, Sullivan, Nulland, Lincoln, Austin, and ultimately Biden would block

it. Of course. This is going to be at this point a reverse of the old script. NATO and the EU are going to have to act on their own without the United States because the United States decided we're going to basically force Ukraine to be the battering ram that gets us into a larger war with Russia, no matter what it takes. And that's the policy as far as I can tell at this point. It's not healthy. It's not conducive to actually helping Ukraine win. They're not going to win. And I think Orban has the right tone and temper relating to what needs to be done next.

Tony Schaefer, always a pleasure, my dear friend. Thank you very much for joining us. Thank you, sir. Always great to join you. Of course. More as we get it. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom.