Judging Freedom - Gilbert Doctorow : How Much Longer Can Russia Fight?

Episode Date: July 22, 2026

Gilbert Doctorow : How Much Longer Can Russia Fight?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Undeclared wars are commonplace. Pragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes to love your country you had to alter or abolish the government? Jefferson was right? What if that government is best which governs least? What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish

fighting for freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now? Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Wednesday, July 22nd, 2006. Gilbert Doctoro joins us now. Gilbert, it's good to be back with you. I was off for a couple of weeks. I missed you. The audience missed you. I missed our other guests. But thank you very much for returning and for accommodating my schedule. Events in your end of the world never cease to transpire and to fascinate. So in the past three weeks, President Zelensky has fired his defense minister and his two leading generals. If he's winning the war, why would he do that? For political reasons, it's domestic balancing. He has passed a close personal relationship

with the General Siersky, whom he has just dismissed under great pressure from the public. And he is of a different view of Fyodorov, who was the Minister of Defense, who he dismissed. He was under pressure from Siersky to remove this rival for decisions on the ongoing future strategy. So it was not a change that he initiated. Nonetheless, it's not the first such change. You have to remember that Siersky himself has not been very long in power. And he replaced Zaluzni, who was dismissed not for reasons of performance in the field, but for reasons of domestic political balancing.

He said things about the status of the war, too, said this to reporters, which was rather negative news that Zavansky found very important. So there are political factors that have been weighing into Zelensky's decisions on this, which violates the general principle of not changing horses midstream, not changing your generals in the midst of a war. But I do think that even if Zelensky has overdone the reorganization of his army bosses in this war, It puts in spotlight Russia's not having changed anymore at the top in their military, despite the fact that there were some very big setbacks. I have in one in particular the disastrous experience with the Ukrainian

incursion that became an invasion of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation that lasted seven months, and which could have or should have been foreseen could have or should have been prevented had the general staff been doing his job properly. Is this effectively a dispute between the old way of fighting wars on a battlefield with troops moving forward and the new way of fighting wars with inexpensive drones. The latter championed by the 35-year-old former Minister of Defense, the former championed by the 40-year military veteran general whom President Zelensky, I guess I don't know, is he still president of Ukraine or not? We'll talk about that in a minute, whom Zelensky just fired. Well, this is not an academic discussion.

It's a very practical discussion and involves personalities, particularly one person, that is Siersky, who was widely hated in the army because he was known as the butcher, since he led the Ukrainian army against the Russians under very adverse conditions, both the numbers of soldiers available and most importantly in the available equipment, where from the very start, Ukraine had a tend to one disadvantage in artillery tubes. and in the ammunition. So Siersky represented a method of wage of war and of a generation since he was over 60 and had been trained in the Russian art of war, in Russian military academy, whereas Federer,

indeed, was the up-and-coming new way of war. But again, it's not an academic dispute. It is the way the war has evolved and changed as a result of drones. But I'd like to divide this into two types of drones, because our major media are all too disposed to speak of the drones as if they are all coming from Ukraine, and they all attest to the military ingenuity

of Ukrainian engineers and the long tradition of arms manufacture in Ukraine, which was a major armory of the Soviet Union. The drones that are, that are, that are holding back or inflicting great pain on the Russian army as it proceeds on the ground in Donbos are probably Ukrainian produced small these are small drones with limited range and probably coming from many different components imported from abroad and assembled in Ukraine the more striking the more stunning attacks on Russia and the infrastructure deep inside Russia are certainly coming from

drones that were not manufactured in Ukraine, but are being provided by Germany, the UK, and other NATO countries. With the sophistication of these drones in long range and the guidance of them based on Western military intelligence is really proof that Russia is fighting war against NATO and not just against the clever guys in Kiev. Is Russia ever going to achieve? its dual goals of capturing the Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine and assuring that NATO never resides in the remainder of Ukraine?

The goal of assuring Russian possession of the control of the Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine, that is almost an afterthought. The Russia went into Ukraine in February 2022 because it expected an ethnic cleansing attack on the eastern regions of Ukraine, which is the Donbos. And so it was a life-saving mission. It also had a big strategic side to it. Nonetheless, conquering territory was not among the objectives that President Putin said for this. special military operation. They were regime change, which it wasn't called regime change. It said denazification and demilitarization. But that was a code word for regime change. That is not happening.

And it is why I'm saying that victory on the ground, which is certain the Russians will take the embassas and know they all see it. But the end result will be a parake victory. end result will be a Pyrrhic victory. Will the Russians ever be able to assure, will the Kremlin ever be able to assure Russians that the part of Ukraine that they don't conquer will never join NATO? No, they won't.

And of course, joining NATO is a formality is the maximum program for Kiev, and for some of it's some, not all of its supporters in Western Europe. De facto, Ukraine was already operating under NATO principles of command and training and equipment before the special military operation started. And it was one reason why it was initiated by President Putin to stop that and to ensure that NATO, another foreign military personnel and and equipment installations were not present in Ukraine.

That is the part of the war mission, that I say is failing badly. And it puts in question, the present strategy of the crime. Boris Johnson, in my view, was a clown, but he does play a role in this when he was the prime minister of Great Britain and talked to the Ukrainians out of the peace treaty that was negotiated in Eston Bull. here he is yesterday saying what the West wants, Chris cut number four.

What we've got to do is get this thing over. And one of the reasons it isn't over is that Putin doesn't really know from the West what we want. And we won't declare that we really, really want Ukraine as part of the West. Western Committee of Nations, a group of countries. So NATO, for instance, is a crucial thing. Surely Putin knows what the West wants, doesn't he? Oh, he does. That is, I agree with you completely.

This is just rhetoric from Boris Johnson. But going back to the March 2022 peace negotiations, which Johnson wrecked. Let's just to keep in mind that they were very generous. The terms in that draft and initials peace treaty were very favorable to Ukraine.

Territorial acquisitions were the least of it or hardly present negligible. It was all about neutralizing Ukraine. Wow. I'm sure that people would undo history if they could, but this is not one that can easily be undone. What is the same?

status of the troops on the ground now? Do you know? The status is highly contested. Siersky, in his latest statements after he was fired, was saying that in the last months, Ukraine has reacquired 750 square kilometers of formerly Russian-occupied Ukraine. I have not seen what kilometers he's talking about. This is a highly questionable claim. At the same time, we know very well if the Russians have been advancing all along the Donbos front. And they are now eight kilometers from either Slavanska.

I think it's Khrmavsk. These are the two remaining fortified cities that are part of the, that were central to the Ukrainian defense line to stop Russian advance in Donetska and Donbos in general. So we also hear every day about this hamlet or that hamlet that the Russians have conquered in the area of Kharkiv, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. So the Russians are advancing as beyond discussion that the Russians will likely take the whole of Donbos, that is 25% of Darnetsk, if they don't presently at own, and the hold, and the parts of the Zaparaja and Khers. which are the two additional oblasts regions of Ukraine that were integrated into Russia in the fall of 2023. This is beyond question. Will it happen this September or next September? I can't say nobody can say, but it probably will happen before the end of this year. Well, what happens when the Russian troops

take over a hamlet. I mean, are they met as heroes? Do Ukrainians flee? Do they take over the government? What happens on the ground demographically and politically? Demographically and politically, you can call this ethnic cleansing. It's a very unattracted term, and it's people liken it to genocide. It's nothing of a sort. It is a very special case. de facto the towns, hamlets, and even some of the cities like this Konstantinovka, which was recently claimed as Russian taken, Russian occupied. These are virtually empty cities and empty hamlets. The whole population has fled, not because the Russians have issued threats to them,

which is of the usual meaning of ethnic cleansing is no. In fact, the Ukrainians have ordered the local population, to evacuate to the Ukraine. Many do. Some succeed in evacuating themselves to the eastern Russian territory. So only a tiny, tiny proportion, a few percent of the pre-war population remains in these hands, if any. But I don't get it. I thought the Russians were liberating Russian-speaking Ukrainians from the adverse actions of their government. Well, they are, but not in an immediate and direct sense.

The towns are evacuated, so the civilians won't die during the fighting. And those who have allegiance to Ukraine aren't coming back. And those who have allegiance to Russia, they rush back in. So, yes, there are always a few, usually there are long-retired Russian speakers who greet the incoming soldiers, but they're a tiny proportion, I say, one, two, three percent of the pre-war population of these towns and cities.

For the most part, it will be, after the cleanup of these towns, after the snipers are neutralized after the mines are moved or detonated, then the population will come back, and it will be Russian-speaking population that is pro-Russian. So in that sense, the end result

of this advance of Russian fruit, in Donbos and Navarossia will be a population that is almost entirely pro-Russian as well as Russian speaker. What is the pressure today on President Putin? You and I talked about this last, about three or four weeks ago, the last time we were on together. What is the pressure today, the second half of July, 26, on President Putin to bring about a quick uncertain end? of what he calls the special military operation. Well, the pressure is immense, and he's already having some results. Certainly, those who are following the Russian attacks on Ukraine and Al-Qaeda,

in particular of the last 10 days or so, appreciates that there has been a major escalation in the violence of Russian attacks, and that is a kind of sea change in some way, which was unthinkable before this pressure came to possible. there on the president. So he has acquiesced. He's made his own this severe punishment of Ukraine. However, I insist that what is being done should have been done three years ago.

The factories that have been destroyed in the last 10 days of arms factories in Ukraine that the Russian general staff is boasting as having destroyed in the latest drone and missile attacks on PF, been destroyed three years ago. These addresses were well known. So why Russia has moved so slowly and to step up the violence is beyond comprehension. Nor is it doing everything in its power today. There are those people who look at Sergei Karadanov, it's called for a nuclear strike

against Western Europe to bring the European leaders to their senses. There's no need for that. If the Russians rolled out in 2018 things like the Alyashnik, which are conventionally tipped, which do not open the Pandora's box of nuclear arms, and which can do the job of the job that Mr. Putin himself set out in February 2022. That is to destroy the decision-making centers. That means political and military centers of Ukraine. It hasn't yet been done. Here's Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on this very very, very topic yesterday, Chris, cut number 12.

So maybe some of you forgot that, but a few months ago, President Putin said, because he was asked then about the European Union getting ready, getting prepared for the war. And he said that we are not going to attack anyone. But if they again putting the entire Europe under the famous banners, well, known banners, they will attack us again. This will not be conventional war. This would be a different type of war. I'm not going to attack the Europeans, but if they attack us, it will not be a conventional war. It's obvious what he's talking about.

Yes and no. This talk, talk is cheap. Actions of what else. The most important thing about this talk is is what does it mean that when they attack? I'm sorry, Mr. Lavrov. They are attacking you right now. And your failure to acknowledge that the attacks are major refineries of infrastructure inside Russia, the attacks on the Russian naval vessels

in the Sea of Ozlov and in the Black Sea, are guided by Western military intelligence and most likely the drones involved, and your missiles involved are Western drones and missiles, Western meaning NATO. Therefore, your threat is very real and serious if you acknowledge that what you are saying as the red line has been crossed already. Who's winning the war?

On the ground, the Russians are winning it. I think it is perfectly clear. However, there are signs. that when I said of Pyrrhic Victory, let me be specific what I mean. And let me state clearly where the sources of information are coming from, my information.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Lavrov's own ministry. It's a consequence, and it's a human nature, to be determined to say something, show something, and not to look at how it could be interpreted by others in a way entirely different

from what you were thinking. I was privileged to be one of two, maybe three, representatives of the Kingdom of Belgium, selected by the Russian embassy from Brussels, to participate in a three-hour-long teleconference on the question of Kersen province, an obelists, one of these four obelists that was incorporated into Russia from Ukraine in 2002. And it was to talk about the war crimes that are being committed daily by Ukraine against the region of Kersson.

And there were two hours of testimony led by the governor of Kersen. This is a Putin-appointed governor of the region. and by the major the syrian the main doctors of kershon and victims of the ukrainian drone attacks and friends what were they saying they were saying the governor himself said that kerosan oblast is unenhabitable is unsupportable because of the daily drone strikes and what is that they have knocked out the electricity When he spoke at this teleconference, there was no electricity in the region, the whole region, not this town, of Kherson. The Ukrainians have used drones to drop landmonds onto streets and sidewalks in the towns of Kherson region,

so that you can't go out and go to the store to buy some provisions without fear of having your legs blown off. That is what I mean by uninhabitable. Now the purpose of these speeches, the purpose of the whole teleconference was to impress upon Russia's friends in Nicaragua, in Mexico, here in Brussels, and maybe 30 other countries around the world, the nature of the illegal warfare that Ukraine is now carrying out against civilians. However, if you look at it from a different angle, which I did, you see that Russia has lost the war. Now, let's take another region, most important region, Crimea. Crimea was taken over by Russia in 2014, March 2014, following the removal of Ukrainian troops, who more or less surrendered, and the vote of the referendum was massively pro unification of Russia. The accession of Crimea was a major factor in changing the mentality of the Russian nation

to pride, to patriotism and so forth. Now, at the present day, as a result of several months of intense attacks on the logistics, which connects Crimea to mainland Russia, that is, threats to the bridges, both railway and automobile truck bridges, and most importantly, drone strikes on the major arterial roads that go down the sea of the Azov to connecting mainland Russia to Crimea. They have been cut off. The bridges in the western part of Crimea have been blown up. There are daily drone strikes. I have friends from Petersburg who were happy a week ago,

I spoke for 20 minutes, and they were happy to get back to Petersburg, which to cut short their annual stay in their Crimean little house, tiny house, over Fia dosia. They were happy to cut up short from planned mid-September to right now because life was unsupportable. No gasoline for the driver. He was taking them and others on the hillside above Fiatosia down to the village to do shopping and to enjoy the beach. And the threat of drones which they saw every day. That is not normal.

So if Russia has lost Crimea effectively, then where is the, if this is victory, what does defeat look like? Last question I alluded to it earlier. What is the pressure on President Putin now? Or what are the consequences to President Putin if he fails in his two objectives, in this case, preserving Crimea, acquiring the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine and ridding NATO from Ukrainian shores. In a sense, your question to be paraphrased and put into a literary context is taking us back to Leftalsoi and the theme that goes through war and peace and is explored at length in the epilogue to war and peace. Do the people control their leaders or do the leaders control their people?

And that is the essence of the question you're asking. I believe that Mr. putting as a very sophisticated and long-experienced political leader, will appreciate the latter point and will accede to the wishes of the people and take dramatic steps to end this war now. Good. But Dr. O'Pellor, a pleasure, my dear friend. Thank you for coming back to us. We'll applaud seeing you next week. All the best. Thank you. Coming up later today, if you're watching this live in about an hour,

and 13 minutes at 9.45 this morning, Gilbert Doctoro, at 2 o'clock this afternoon, the golden boy, yes, back again, Max Blumenthal, at 3 o'clock this afternoon, Phil Giraldi. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom.