Judging Freedom - Gilbert Doctorow : The Kremlin Prepares for War With Europe

Episode Date: April 22, 2026

Gilbert Doctorow : The Kremlin Prepares for War With EuropeSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Undeclared wars are commonplace. Tragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes to love your country you had to alter or abolish the government? Jefferson was right? What if that government is best which governs least? What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish

fighting for freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now? Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for judging freedom. Pardon me, today is Wednesday, April 22nd, 22, 2006. Our guest today is Gilbert, Dr. Gilbert, always a pleasure. My dear friend, welcome here. Welcome to the show. Thank you for accommodating my schedule, as you always do. I have a lot to talk to you about. The theme is the Kremlin prepares for war against Europe, but to build up to that, I want you to tell me about President Putin's standing with the Kremlin officials, with Russian elites and with average Russians. We'll start with the Kremlin.

How does his own Kremlin honestly feel about him from your ability to take their pulse? Well, these things are always well hidden, and you have to do some guesswork, and you can be mistaken. But I think which way the wind is blowing is fairly clear. And as regards all three of the catacor, that you have mentioned, both the Kremlin insiders and those

a bit on fringes and then the general public. The wind is clear. Putin is in trouble. And I understand everyone's going to tell me about the 80%. And I say, it's not what counts. What counts is what I see on television every day. And the mood is clear. Last night on Soloveyov's program,

the first 20 minutes of the program, The presenter gave a speech describing how the people love Putin and how Putin loves the people and how Putin looks after. Now, this is on state-owned or state-influenced media. Yes. Salaf is one of the leading dean of Russian journalists. He's been the head of Moscow Union of Journalists. He has a fairly independent person, but he also is a member of the team. And two weeks ago, he did what people at the top found rather unpleasant and unacceptable. He, in thinly veiled language, his whole panel was saying that the way the war is conducted is not right.

And if the war should be ended soon by more violent action and putting an end to the regime of Zelensky. Well, a day after that, Solviov backtracked a little, and last night, he was going to be a little. last night, he was a complete surrender. He delivered a long speech explaining why the president, chief commander, is unusual in this solicitude for his soldiers' enforcement nation. That was gratuitous, and it tells me that the president is in trouble,

because you don't need that if you're not in trouble. Interesting. But what does the public feel? The public must be bored out of its mind. Every program, television now, every news bullet, as well as these important talk shows, starts out with 15 to 20 minutes of Putin speeches. Now he's speechifying everywhere, every day.

And most of what he says is of zero interest to the general public. That doesn't make any difference. You heard it on the 2 o'clock news, you heard it on 6 o'clock news, and then you hear it again on either the Great Game or a Solviozzi evening program, which comes on at like 12 o'clock at night in Moscow time. Well, you get the message.

This is a cult of personality which is being enhanced and expanded and must be boring the Russian public to death. Is the patience over the special military operation run out across the board? Is that fair to say? Russia, like the rest of the world, reacts to world events in general. And as I have said for last two weeks, the United States Israeli attack on Iran shook up the thinking classes of Russia. And they then think again about how their war is being managed by top leadership. And why is it dragging on so long? And why is it in, are we inviting the United States and other Western countries to cross our red lines all the time?

because of the shocking difference in the behavior of Iran. This country that we don't think about as being first world, you know, second world, maybe third world. Well, they showed teeth, and they showed grit, and they showed bravery and willingness to face death, which the Russian leadership gave up some time ago. And that means Russian leadership has lost sovereignty. It's a very peculiar situation.

The sovereignty has gone. been emphasized as the quintessence of a nation's existence by the president. But in failing to respond to challenges and provocations, over the last three years of this war, Russian sovereignty has been diminished. And the contrast with the bravery, directness, and willingness to face risk and death of the Iranians has been striking, not just of me, but to the Russian thinking classes. I'm not speaking on my own behalf.

I'm speaking about what I see in their words before the microphone. They are praising the Iranians in a way that reflects on the opinion of their own leadership. To what do you attribute to Putin's reticence, or in some cases refusal, to respond to these provocations? I mean, the CIA and MI6 tried to kill him had he been in his country house. He didn't seem to respond in any palpable way. Nobody has an answer to that, myself included.

But we can guess a little bit. And I have been reluctant to follow suggestions of people who are making for a long time. That is the influence of oligarchs. At this point, it is one of the few remaining explanations that deserves investigation. After all, the horrible economic policy of the Bank of Central Bank of Russia under Alvira Nabilina is horrible for whom? It's horrible for the small and medium-sized businesses. They can't live with 20% interest rates.

They can't live with 15% interest rates. It's not good for the general public when the mortgage rates cease to be heavily subsidized and they have to face market rates that are reflecting these impossibly high central rates from the bank of Russia. But for the big guys, it's nothing. For all of the oligarchs who run the major industries that are privatized in the U.S. in years, they are receiving subsidized loans. Now, if you want to step back and take it out of what looks like personalities to find a policy, the policy is there. It is to cut off the oxygen of the non-essential production business activity, that is to say, consumer-side activity, and it is to feed oxygen to heavy industry and particularly to the military industry.

I understand that. And that is part of the subject that is entitled to this talk today, the war economy. There is no question, but these things all come together under the heading of Russia going into a war economy. All right. Russia going into a war economy because the United States is apparently going to leave NATO and a group of European nations will together put together, will put together some sort of a group as a replacement for NATO. and the Russians recognize this. Fair conclusion of your observations. Oh, definitely.

And we have, as a backup to this, we don't have to speak about what Mr. Sullivan of Yov or others in the talk shows and commentative shows are saying, you listen to Lavarov. Lov for the last two days came out with exactly these points, and Medvedev also came out with these points. that the Western Europe is now militarizing. The Germany, which is the most powerful industrial base in Europe,

is switching from production of cars in which it cannot compete with the Chinese, both in electric and an hybrid, and even in diesel and gasoline cars. They're failing before the Chinese. So to make up for these loss of factories and workers, the government is throwing money, the government of America. is throwing a lot of money at these automobile industry factories so that they turn out trucks for the army and tanks. In one of your essays this week that you sent me, you actually listed the names of the countries that are talking to each other about a substitute for NATO, and I don't remember what all of them were. Can you tell us? And then I have, of course, a follow-up series of questions.

First of all, it's very important then besides. that it is a group of countries. It is not the EU. What you have in this group is a refusal to accept Ursula von der Leyen's notion that she will coop up all of Europe into an army over which she presides. After all, she was the former

Minister of Defense in Germany, a failed Minister of Defense, I add, but that's secondary. The point is that the countries involved are acting to preserve their own sovereignty in the face of pretensions of the EU otherwise. And these countries are, and one country is not in the EU anymore, but may yet be in the EU in months to come.

That is Britain, France, Germany, Poland, Norway, and the prize winner here is Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky has been put forward as the band leave of this group. And they are hoping that really Ukraine will fight to the last living Ukrainian for the sake of Europe. So Mrs. von der Leyen will or will not get her life's dream of becoming commander and chief of a European army? It's dead.

Dead in the water. They haven't even talked to her about forming a European army that would be EU. No, it's not EU. And it's not NATO 2.0. It is a group of countries that happen to be among the largest economies with the best financed. So they have the money sort of Norway with its gas revenues and vast reserves as a source of capital, not just more than anything else. And you've got Germany and France, France with its nuclear shield umbrella that's willing to hold out to cover the other countries from. the rate. Wow. What role is there for the leader of Belarus Lukashenko and all of this?

Well, I mean, he's a devoted ally of President Putin, is he not? Well, he hasn't. He has not. He's blown hot and cold over over decades. He's one of the longest ruling heads of state in Eastern Europe and Europe is whole. So, called last dictator of Europe. He is quite a personality. He is a big fighter for his own people. He has challenged Putin in the past over the prices paid for hydrocarbons and over opening the Russian market to his dairy products and all kinds of other products. So he has been a fighter for the economic interests of Belarus, which is a relatively poor country compared to Russia. And yet, we in the West, we tend to look upon him as an appendage to Russia, that he does whatever the Russians say or want.

Well, nonsense. He, as I said, he has challenged Putin directly in the past. He has courted the Americans and the others to keep the Russians attention on himself. He is now being courted by the Trump administration. He's been invited to the White House sometime or other. They have lifted some of the sanctions on him in the misguided hope. that they can divide him, separate him away from Putin. That's impossible.

But he is not Putin. He is a fighter. We don't think of him as an alpha male. He never posed like Putin bare-chested on a riding horse. And we really wouldn't want to see him bare-chested. The guy is overweight, and he always has been. But when push came to shove in 2020, and when the CIA,

and their buddies in Poland and in Lithuania tried to arrange Maidon revolution in Poland over the election and the opposition party member whom he imprisoned, whose wife took over, and they didn't want to recognize Lukashenko as a winner. Well, at that time, in the demonstrations, he and his son went out in the public square with submachine guns and they said, we're ready. Well, I haven't seen anybody in the Kremlin go out with submachine guns. I haven't faced demonstrations like that, but still the man has gotten guts. The last time I saw that was Saddam Hussein, you know, about five years before the American invasion out in front of the presidential palace,

celebrating something by shooting off a submachine gun. How has the war in Iran, if at all, affected the ability to get arms to Ukraine to fight against the Russians? Before answering that, I just want to finish the point about Lukashenko, because it's not just an irrelevance if you speak about who he is. We may see a second front opened Belarus-Belarus-Ukrainian border. Both sides are talking about provocations. and if a second front is open. The whole war started on the Belarus Front in 2022. What does that mean?

The Belarus military will invade Ukraine? No, it means that the Russian army will go through Belarus straight to Kiev. That's what it means. That could strangely be the end of this war, which none of us has anticipated. But I mention it because it's in the news, in the Russian news, and certainly in the Belarus news. Got it. I'll be at the Belarus embassy this Friday, I'm going to ask. Oh, well, please let us know whatever tidbits of information you pick up.

Now, on the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu's war in Iran to what started out as Joe Biden's defense against the Russians in Ukraine. Well, the link between these two wars is very close in many different. parameters. I've mentioned some of them passing as weeks have gone by. But just as a refresher, the most serious link between them is the way the war in the attack of the United States and Israel on Iran set off alarm bells in the Russian thinking classes in the Russian foreign policy establishment. As you mentioned in asking the question, of course the American support for Israel has drained away a vast amount of military equipment,

and particularly Patriots and other air defenses thought, which would have normally gone to Ukraine with paid for by Europe. It's not there anymore. It's either been destroyed or has been repositioned to the point where the United States was borrowing Patriot missiles from some of, I think, from Greece, from some of the European countries

which had been supplied previously. So the means of warfare have been deprived to Ukraine. Nonetheless, the major action is not in the front of do they have, does the Ukrainians have patriots? That's not the issue, really. The real issue is drugs. And a lot of countries are supplying drones to Ukraine now. And the manufacturers of those drones were listed, listed publicly by the Russians.

in the past week, with Medvedev saying, these are all now eligible targets for Russian missiles. So the shift from heavy equipment supply by the United States to still greater dependence on drones has made Ukraine intimately dependent on European suppliers of drones. That is a bit of that is a factor that's come out of the Iran war. So a drone manufacturing plant in Germany, which with the permission of the German government, is selling drones to Ukraine, is fair game for attack by the Russians in former President Medvedev's view. Well, of course, we know that this is a good cop, bad cop.

And Medvedev is playing the bad cop. But it's a message, an unsubtle message to Merits. what's your step? Because under the rules of war, we can do this. What is your view of the extension of the ceasefire between the United States slash Israel and Iran? And before you answer that, Writers is reporting, this is actually the second report, Colonel McGregor reported it overnight, that Iran has seized two ships in the straight of Hormuz, which I apparently tried to get through

without paying the toll. Well, as I say, the behavior of the Iranians is a shock to the people around Putin. And it doesn't flatter him. Because while he's talking up a storm and speechifying everywhere, getting 20 minutes of television time

before every news bulletin, the Iranians are acting. They're acting within. and phenomenal courage and brains. And that is, and dignity. They are defending their sovereignty indeed every day and several times a bit. What you just indicated is a further demonstration.

That they are, they're not teasing the United States. They are not baiting these states. They are threatening the States. Wow. How do you see the war? in Ukraine proceeding to a conclusion. The Americans and the Israelis have failed at regime change. If anything, this current government is more hardline than it was a year ago,

failed at seizing Iran's nuclear enriched material, failed at degrading Iran's ballistic missiles, failed that controlling the Strait of Hormuz. What have they gained? Well, the Russians are saying exactly what you're saying. The Russian panelists are seeing it the same way, not just Dimitri Simes, when you're in touch with,

but other hosts and commentators and news program hosts, they are saying what you can say. And all of this influences the views of the commandant. and how the war should be changed in nature to a quick end. I'd say the consensus, coming back to where we began, the consensus of the people and of the elites is the war should end very, very soon. That is not a criticism. That is not direct indication of what should be done.

But it is a strongly stated desire which President Putin will have to respond to. So far, he hasn't. What you're about to see are the streets of Tehran last night. As the military paraded its ballistic missiles through the streets, and the public became aware of President Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire. I think I've said this to you before. This is not news to you, but your thoughts on it, please. when Iran bombs Tel Aviv, the people run into bomb shelters.

When the U.S. bombs Tehran, the people run into the streets and wave flags. Well, I think that we'll have a test in Russia how they compare to what we've just seen. There'll be two tests coming up. These are national holidays. On the 9th of May, of course, you have the anniversary of liberation of Europe. And there will be massive demonstrations in Moscow and across the country. We'll see what change, if any, there is in the way this event is celebrated. And what is what we visualize in the streets of Bosco and Petersburg,

if they are picking up the hints that you just shown by the popular demonstrations in Tehran. The next big test, of course, will be on the, I think it's the 11th of June. That will be National Day in Russia. It's like our Fourth of July. And that will be another event, which will test the waters of broad public who should come out into the streets in very good spirits and in support of the government. We'll see how that runs. What kind of mood prevails there and then? Gilbert, Doctor, thank you very much.

Great analysis across the board on all these hot spots. Deeply appreciated, please keep all those essays that you regularly send me coming on a regular basis. They are most informative. All the best of you. We'll look forward to seeing you next week. Thanks. Thank you. A busy and exciting day coming up at 9.30 this morning Eastern, if you're watching us live in an hour and four minutes, live from Tehran.

Professor Muhammad Mirandi. At 11 o'clock this morning, the former director of counterterrorism for the United States government who resigned saying there's no basis for a war against Iran. Joe Kent will be here. At 1 o'clock, Pepe Escobar, at 2 o'clock, Professor Glendiz. And at 3 o'clock, the great Phil Giraldi. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom.