Judging Freedom - Has PEACE Died_ Is Perpetual War Inevitable_ Col Daniel Davis, Army(ret)

Episode Date: June 12, 2023

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Hi everyone, Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, June 12th, 2023. It's about three o'clock in the afternoon. We'll start with Colonel Davis right after this. When it comes to carrying valuables or even firearms in your vehicle, most people feel they have to choose between safety and convenience. A vehicle break-in occurs every 36 seconds in America. Give dad the perfect Father's Day gift this year. The Headrest Safe. The Headrest Safe gives you the power to store cash, jewelry, medication, and yes, even your

concealed carry firearm. You'll never have to and yes even your concealed carry firearm you'll never have to worry about taking your valuables with you again keep them safe with the headrest safe use promo code judge nap and enjoy 50 off for a limited time at the headrestsafe.com colonel davis always a pleasure my dear friend. Welcome back to the show. Since last we spoke, there's been a lot of speculation about the dam burst in Ukraine, each side pointing fingers at the other, and some very rational people that you and I respect saying it was just an act of nature. The dam was old and its materials were worn away. What's your thinking about who gained, who lost, who more likely than not caused this burst dam? Yeah, there are three possibilities.

One is the Russians did it. Two is that the Ukraine side did it. And then the third one is that because of damage done really by both sides last year, that it finally just gave way. I think that you can safely eliminate the Russian side from having done it because they are the losers in every way that this would go on. And the possibility does exist that it was just because the thing broke and Ukraine's taking advantage of it. But there are two major negatives for the Russian side that are both playing positive for the Ukraine side right now. And that is number one, that the water supply to the Crimean Peninsula has been severely constrained. And that's a problem that they fought for eight years prior to the start of this war. And then it's also that the water level in

the Dnieper River, especially north of the reservoir, is now very, very low, almost like a stream instead of a major river than it was before, which makes it now or soon will make it very easy for the Ukraine side to cross with large numbers of forces in ways that Russia can't prepare for adequately in the time that's available. And then the last thing is that you look and you see which side suffered the most from the flood. And many of the Russian fortifications were washed away and a handful of the Ukraine side was too. But it's overwhelmingly negative for the Russian side. And yet President Zelensky, I will run a clip of him just in a minute, Colonel, is almost admonishing the West. I'm going to use his word or the English translation of his word for its indifference to the humanitarian crisis caused by the flood. I mean, I agree with you. It was either the Ukrainians or it was the natural result of just a weakened dam. But President Zelensky is almost saying, come over here and rescue our people. I mean, who are the people that have suffered? Are they ordinary

Ukrainians or are they Russian speaking Ukrainians in the part of Ukraine that Russia claims has always been part of Russia? Well, it's primarily the Russian speakers, especially on the east side of the river. Most of them on the west side of the river left before the dam was blown because they wanted to get away from the Ukraine side when Russia gave up Kherson City last year. But the curious thing about this,

which has not been reported in any Western publication that I've seen, is that as the Russians on their side were evacuating people up to about 6,000 total, I suppose, the Ukraine side was shelling the survivors and the people who were escaping on multiple occasions, not just one. So while they're trying to escape, these are just civilians. They were still shelling them. So that's a little odd that you want to be saying that it's something that Russia did and then you're shelling the people trying to escape. I'm not sure how that works together. I'll play the clip in a minute, but let me make sure I understand this. Ukrainian military was shelling Russian-speaking Ukrainians as they were being rescued from the ravages of the flood.

That's certainly the report. That's what we've seen. We talk about a war crime. How could the Ukrainian military possibly justify killing civilians, much less their own civilians? Well, I mean, you got the same issue with all of the cities in Belgorod region that have been shelled because they're all civilian targets. There's not a military target among them. So, I mean, you can really expand that out. There's no there's no clean hands. And this is the bottom line.

And so we do ourselves a disservice when we try to make it only Russians is doing some bad things. All right. Before we get to the so-called spring offensive, here's President Zelensky. It's in Ukrainian. There are subtitles. so-called spring offensive. Here's President Zelensky. It's in Ukrainian. There are subtitles. I'm going to jump in and read the subtitles so that those who are listening only to this broadcast will have the benefit of knowing exactly what he said. Now, unfortunately, we see that at some levels the world is simply

wow, and the human tragedy caused by the Russian terrorist attack on the hydroelectric power station, when international organizations that are supposed to protect life on a global scale fail to form and fail to send the rescue mission to the occupied territory even in a week some global actors do not dare to come come out with clear and strong statements condemning this latest russian war crime terrorists are simply fueled latest rest Russian war crime. Man, if the Ukrainians did it, he surely gave the go-ahead, no? Well, I mean, I don't see how it could be any different. I mean, something of that major, that's not something that some lower level guy just does on his own.

But even if it was, you know, the natural collapse based on the previous damage, or they specifically did it, within a question, zielinski is going to take every opportunity to exploit the information operations field uh which uh you know no matter what you want to say about him personally he's been exceptionally good at twisting things around to to try to create the impression that he wants publicly especially in the western side which basically publishes everything he says without critical analysis. Was there a Western humanitarian aid in the form of human beings to participate in the rescue? I'm going to guess not if the rescuers were being shot at. Well, yeah, I mean, that was a strange statement anyway, because I mean, what war zone does civilian workers just come in and start helping without having it secured first? I mean, what war zone does civilian workers just come in and start helping without having it secured first?

I mean, nobody does. They didn't come on either side of that because both sides are a war zone. So that was really kind of a strange statement. The so-called spring offensive, which has, I guess it's begun. I mean, it's not like D-Day where we knew where it started. What kind of a chance do the Ukrainians stand? Seems like all the odds are against them. by just south of the town called Orkiv, saw tremendous attacks, wave after wave, over a full week, that basically didn't even dent the very first line of Russian defenses. And, you know, you've seen, I'm sure, the videos out there where there's just large numbers of German tanks,

of American APCs of various kinds, 113s, the Max Pros, and certainly the Bradley fighting vehicles all burning. None of them have penetrated even the first line of defense. And I think most experts expected that the NATO training and the NATO equipment would allow Ukraine to rapidly break through at least the first line of Russian defenses and move to the second line, heading to a place called Tokmok, which is about 15, 20 kilometers south. And thus far in that area, Ukraine has completely failed to even dent the line. They have had some success in the last 24, 48 hours, a little bit further to the north of that. But even that is still in what's called the security zone and they have yet to penetrate the first barricade line of the Russian defenses. Your colleague and colleagues

and friends of ours, Colonel McGregor and Larry Johnson, point out that the NATO forces in Europe, there is no single NATO military person, officer, or enlisted who's participated in the land war in Europe. Russians are very experienced at fighting. Is NATO capable of even training Ukraine troops to use this high-level equipment with which they're generally unfamiliar? Well, you know, even in the week before this offensive started, there was some grumbling among the Ukrainian troops

that had been trained by this. And they were saying, hey, you don't know as much as we do because they've actually done this now for a full year. So they are getting a lot of experience on the ground. Whereas the NATO side, you can't say they don't have any experience because, I mean, even when I went into my first combat operation in Desert Storm, I had not had any actual combat experience, but we had tremendous training experience within Europe, much of which was led by Doug McGregor. He helped train me before my first combat. So it's at least possible that it was done right. But I think the real bigger issue here, unlike in 1991, is that we have spent the last two decades focused on counterinsurgency.

And so all of our so-called experts are expert in the different kinds of fighting. So that will make it a lot more difficult. And that also exposes that we would have a lot more difficulty in initial fights because our own knowledge base is a lot less than it should be. Do you think that NATO is getting tired of this? It certainly doesn't look like it. I think that on some level, they're tired of the thing just hanging around. They just want it to be over and done with. But I think that on some level they're tired of the thing just hanging around. They just want it to be over and done with. But I think that, Judge, there's too many people that enjoy seeing Russia bleed,

and they're happy to keep going on just nickel and diamond this situation and letting it turn into a war of attrition over years. I think that there's, frankly, some people that would be happy with that in the West. And so in that regard, I think that they're not tired of it. But the people with that attitude, I mean, President Zelensky complaining about lack of humanitarian concern, what kind of humanitarian concern is there for the people in Ukraine and the Ukrainian military doomed to be slaughtered? Well, I mean, that's one of my biggest complaints that I've had for nearly the duration of this entire war is that there is, in my view, there is no military path to success or victory, however defined by the Ukrainian side. And for us to

continue to give them enough weapons to keep the war going, but not enough to, or even if it's possible to help them to win, which again, I contend that there's not, no matter how many tanks or planes we might give, all we're doing is preventing Ukraine from losing and increasing the devastation on the people of Ukraine and on the cities of Ukraine to replace. And yes, it might hurt Russia in the meantime, but there's a strange dynamic that's now starting to take place that the longer this goes, the better Russia gets because they're amassing a lot more experience in the things that matter in conventional warfare. And their industry is now cranking up and they're producing lots of drones. They're making more tech and other kinds of armaments.

And so at the end of this may see them stronger than they were before, not weaker. So it's in our interest to get this over as fast as possible to try to put the brakes on that, frankly. When we come back, we're going to take a break to pay some bills. When we come back, I'm going to ask you about that back in a minute. You want to feel safe in your vehicle.

And for you, that means easy, rapid access to your firearm. But safety also means your items don't fall into the wrong hands. You don't have to choose between safety and convenience. The Headrest Safe keeps your firearm where you can access it, and no one else can. Just order your Headrest Safe, install it yourself when it arrives, and enjoy peace of mind. It starts at theheadrestsafe.com. Picking up where we left off with Colonel Daniel Davis. The West may enjoy seeing Russia bleed, but Ukraine is bleeding more. Russia has the human resources and the military resources

to outlast Ukraine and inflict order of magnitude, orders of magnitude number of casualties. No? Well, they do. And you're seeing that play out so far in the offensive that's going on right now, because Russia learned some major lessons from its disastrous last year in the Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkiv area. Russia did not repeat those mistakes. They have elaborate defenses now dug in over scores of kilometers deep. It would be hard for a NATO, a full-on NATO force to be able to penetrate these lines based on the air superiority that Russians have, the air defense capability, and the drone superiority because of electronic warfare, apparently, is what we're starting to discover. And under those disadvantages, it's hard to imagine how Ukraine can do anything but keep on dying by impaling themselves on these lines of defenses. And the longer this goes,

the higher the casualties on the Ukrainian side, it just continues to tip the balance in the favor of Russia long-term. What would it take for a ceasefire? What would Russia demand? What would Ukraine insist on? I can answer that theoretically at the moment. It's practically impossible because Zelensky is not going to do anything until he sees this play out because he believes that somehow that they're going to succeed. But if one does come, the Russians for at a minimum are going to require the full four oblasts that they, you know, illegally annexed last year. They'll have that as a minimum. Of course, Crimea, that's not even usable. And Ukraine would have to be a non-ally nation. They would have to be independent and definitely no NATO. And, you know, that's kind of the beginning place. And, you know, so far,

Ukraine won't even contemplate something that signs a way for the provinces of their country. But as I've argued from the beginning and now saw even more so, the longer they delay that, the greater the chances is that Ukraine loses even more of these oblasts. And there are several others that are in danger if this thing goes, if this offensive doesn't go well for them. I guess Russian tanks are going to have to reach Kiev before President Zelensky would even consider a ceasefire under those terms, right? If this offensive goes even more poorly for Ukraine and they lose a lot of the striking power that they have now, probably the next biggest target would be Odessa in the south because if Russia takes that, it completely cuts off all access to the sea everywhere. And then you might get a possibility for some negotiations because I'm sure you'll have a lot of European nations that will start pushing for this because they'll see that the die is cast

and there's no point in continuing on to support uh you know ukrainian that that where they can't win and that may provide the biggest incentive whether zielinski wants to or not but that we're still a long way from that i mean what um what would it take for the United States, I guess this is a political question, to be the instigator of peace talks or of a ceasefire? Well, I argue we should do that right now because I can't be the only one and some of the people on your show can't be the only ones in America that recognize this is militarily unattainable for Ukraine to be able to chain their political objectives, which is to drive Russia out. That being the case, it's in everybody's interest to get this thing drawn down as fast as possible.

And instead of saying we're going to support Ukraine as long as it takes, because what you're saying is as long as it takes for Russia to win is what the practical implication is going to be. What we should be doing is behind the scenes working with both Moscow and Kiev and saying, hey, we just got to accept reality or let's put the best face on this. We can save as much as we can for Ukraine and see if we can get this thing in the killing end and the stop. And at least so that Ukraine can be a viable political entity. If we don't do that, then we run the risk that Zelensky may not have a government left at all, depending on how far Russia wants to push it. Let's switch gears. I know you're a student of history. This week, there are two anniversaries. One is JFK's

commencement address at George Washington University, June 10, 1963, arguably an even better speech than his inaugural address, but one which argued rationally and persuasively for peaceful coexistence and commercial trading with the Soviet Union. Obviously, that didn't happen because he was assassinated a few months later. The other anniversary, four years later, was the Israeli attack on the USS Liberty, which was intended to draw the United States into the Israeli-Egyptian war, and LBJ theoretically was going to use this as an instrument to bomb Moscow. Thank God the latter didn't happen.

What lessons have we learned or failed to learn? Yeah, we failed to learn that not listening to JFK and allowing the Israelis to do what they did. Yeah, I mean, we'll look at the first one first with the JFK part there.

I mean, because he died, he was murdered rather, just a few months later, four days after his death, JFK undid one of the executive orders that Kennedy had signed to get us out of Vietnam. You mean LBJ undid? Sorry, that's what I was going to say. LBJ undid JFK's order to get us out of Vietnam. You mean LBJ undid? Sorry, that's what I was going to say. LBJ undid JFK's order to get us out of Vietnam and to end all that support. And he did the exact opposite and began to ramp it up. And of course, we know all what happened from there. And then it turned much more hostile toward the Soviet Union and just deepened the Cold War. And if

Kennedy had been allowed to live, we would not have fought the Vietnam War as we know it today. And we could have seen the end of the Cold War decades earlier and saved all kinds of money. And God only knows what kind of world we could have today. But because we failed to do that, and especially since 9-11, where now that we almost just jettison any talk of diplomacy, and all we want to do is carry around a big military stick. And that's just not working for us. And that's one of the things I want to argue the most is that it's not keeping us safe. It's actually making us less safe by creating more enemies. And people don't want to be coerced and forced to do something that's not in their benefit, in their favor. And that world no longer exists of 2001 or 1991. It's a different world, and if we don't

change, it's going to get us and take us down. Why did we look the other way when 34 American sailors were murdered and 200 were injured in a planned attack by our allies, the Israelis? You know, that's one of the darker episodes in our own history, and certainly in the U.S.-Israel history, and it's just another example how people in different positions of power will use things to their own ends, and they'll characterize them however they desire to do so, and they'll turn a blind eye to something that's not in our favor if they think they can exploit it to get some benefit elsewhere, and now it's kind of turned into over the years, it's just like, it's just almost a rite of passage, Republican or Democrat, that whatever

Israel says we have to do, and we have to support them no matter what the circumstances are. And again, this doesn't really help out Israel to turn it, to basically hand over foreign policy to them. And it certainly doesn't help out the Palestinians or the seek for a just peace in the Middle East. And there's things we can do to be a great friend to Israel, but also take care of other people like some of the Palestinians over there. It's not an either or, but we've kind of, that kind of started down the path that now it's just a black and white only one way. And we don't even consider anything else that might work. How long do you think the, back to Ukraine, the Ukraine-Russian war lasts before Ukraine collapses?

If President Zelensky flees to Paris and operates a government in exile? You know, I think probably the next month is going to, we're going to have a better way to answer that because there are still reportedly 20 brigades of combat power that Ukraine has not yet used in this offensive. So it's still possible that they could achieve some breakthroughs. So this is not over yet. The first five have just run into a buzzsaw. If those, the next 15 or 20 also don't penetrate then that date could come very fast because once this striking power is gone then Ukraine will be vulnerable to a Russian counter-attack and reportedly they have somewhere around 100,000 troops that are waiting in the wings on the Russian side of the border over there that could be brought into action and if Ukraine loses their

striking power they'll be very vulnerable to a large scale incursion. If on the other hand, Ukraine does succeed and breaks through and then Russia has to bring those reforces just to stop the incursion, then this thing could drag on for another year or more. So we really have to wait for about the next month to see how this plays out. Colonel Daniel Davis, always a pleasure, my friend. Thank you for joining us. Thanks for having me, Judge. More as we get it. If you like what you saw, tell a pleasure, my friend. Thank you for joining us. Thanks for having me, Judge. More as we get it. If you like what you saw, tell a friend, subscribe. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. The Headrest Safe is quick and easy to use.

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