Judging Freedom - INTEL Roundtable w/ Johnson & McGovern., and Scott Ritter : Weekly Wrap. 8-May

Episode Date: May 8, 2026

INTEL Roundtable w/ Johnson & McGovern., and Scott Ritter : Weekly Wrap. 8-MaySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Undeclared wars are commonplace. Pragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes to love your country you had to alter or abolish the government? the government. What if Jefferson was right? What if that government is best, which governs least?

What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now? Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for judging freedom. Today is Friday, May 8, 2006. It's the end of the day, the end of the week. Our favorite wrap up on the week's events, our Intelligence Community Roundtable with Ray McGovern, Larry Johnson, and Scott Ritter, joining us this week. Gentlemen, welcome here, and thank you very much for your time. Larry, to you first, how close are the United States and Israel to resuming large-scale bombing of Iran? We'll probably wait until after, if Trump's trip to China comes off, they'll start it afterwards.

But they're already setting the stage for creating the, if you will, the false flag to justify that created a provocation that Iran will retaliate, hit a U.S. ship. And then Trump gets to go back to Congress and say, look, we've been attacked. This is something new. So we're not back on the 60-day clock of the War Powers Act. We get to start a new 60-day clock. How many troops are in that area, Scotty, and is the government preparing to use ground forces? I don't know the exact number of troops. That's probably a high classified number, but I would imagine that we're talking 10 to 15,000. But these aren't ground combat troops. The vast majority of these are communications specialists, intelligence specialists, logistics specialists, aircraft, you know,

maintainers, you know, the things of that nature. Look, in 1985, the, when we exercised the plan, you know, to forcefully seize Chabahar, which is a port in Iran on the coast, we, we were going in with, you know, 60 to 80,000 Marines and 120,000 Army. So we're looking at roughly two hundred thousand ground troops, ground combat troops. When Trump was talking about, you know, when the Iranian shot down a global hawk, and Trump was talking about retaliation, striking air defense sites in Iran, he was warned that that could set off a cycle that gets us to right where we're at right now. And the only way that we would be able to defeat Iran was to land a force of between 900,000 and 1.2 million men. Oh, physically take Iran. And we don't have that.

So there's just literally no threat of any meaningful ground action against Iran. You know, we may be dumb enough to try to take an island or to seize an airfield for a short period of time or to do special operations. But the idea of, you know, putting boots on the ground for, you know, to occupy Iran, that that just isn't going to happen. Ray, what is Russia doing to protect Iran? We don't know exactly. We know that it's providing some intelligence support and, you know, justified in their view by all the intelligence support we're giving to Ukraine. But I think the most important thing was the Putin telephone call at his initiative telling according to the Russian readout, look, if you land troops, that will be completely, totally

unacceptable. And if you just attack from the air again, that too is unacceptable because not only will Iran suffer, but so will Iran's neighbors. And remember, we're Iran's neighbor. Now the Chinese have chimed in in the same way, using the same word, unacceptable. I think that our military may be saying to Trump, look, you know, every time we try, one of these things, is our third try and didn't work because the, and the Iranians could have sunk that ship, but they didn't. Next 10, they probably will sink it. Well, unless Trump wants a sunken ship, like probably Netanyahu wants, I'm still from, well, I'm still on the positive side of the ledger. I think there are more reasons for Trump not to do this than to do it, but I've been very much.

room so often before, so take it for what it's worth. Wow. Scotty, you used the word dumb a few minutes ago, and it reminded me of this. Chris cut number 13. This thing is over to the American people. I know gas prices are high, and I know we're suffering right now. But you pay now, you pay later against thugs like Iran. They tried to get a nuclear weapon, and if you don't believe that, you shouldn't be allowed

to drive in your hometown. Donald Trump stopped Iran from having 8 to 10 nuclear weapons by bombing their enrichment facilities. God bless you, President Trump. We were weeks away from the nuclear armed Iran. No more. Everything has been obliterated. Their economy is in tatters. Their military has been decimated.

There's more to do. If we can control the straits, checkmate against Iran, lockade plus, armed the people. And to our allies throughout the world who depend on the strait of our movement, more than we do, get off your ass and help us. Nottie, is he out of his mind armed the people? They'll use those arms on the people that are arming them. He, I have to be careful what I say because I'm a new grandfather, and I have to set a good example.

But Lindsey Graham isn't just dumb, you know, because that's an insult to dumb people. He is criminally insane. Every word he said was a lie. Just give you an example. Iran was close to having 10 nuclear weapons. Well, in order to do that, Iran would have to convert the 450 pounds of uranium hexafluoride that had been enriched to 60%. They'd have to enrich it up to 90 plus percent and then process it and move forward.

If that was the case, then why did Iran put the total? of that enriched material on the table on February 26th. They said, we're going to turn it over. We're going to get rid of it. It's going to be diluted down. We're going to shut down all enrichment. So he's a liar. He's a straight-up liar.

Iran didn't have a nuclear weapons program. Iran was willing to give up the totality of the material that could be used to make nuclear weapons if Iran ever wanted them, which they don't. So the whole premise of what he's saying is fundamentally flawed. And if you believe Lindsey Graham, then you shouldn't be allowed to drive in your hometown. Larry, you and I have talked off air about the president is not going to go to China while war is going on. The Chinese probably wouldn't receive him. So something's going to happen after he comes back.

But when he gets there, what leverage does Donald Trump have with Xi Jinping? Zero. He's got nothing. look, the United States needs rare earth minerals to rebuild its stockpile of tomahawk missiles, jasms, Patriot missile, Pact3, Interceptors, and Thad Interceptors. And so he has to go convince the Chinese, hey, would you give us these rare earth minerals that we need so we could build weapons that we're going to use against you? And I'm sure the Chinese would go, oh, that's a marvelous idea. Yes, let's do that. No, that's not going to happen.

In fact, we saw this week that China, in an uncharacteristic tone, because the Chinese are usually very polite diplomatically, but basically told their refineries and their banks, don't, if the United States tries to sanction you, forget about it, we got your back. Don't pay it. You're not going to suffer. And this is, you know, look, the world is shifting away from

the United States financially. And just a quick comparison, 25 years ago, the top five of the top 10 banks in the world were Japanese. The number one bank in the world was Deutsche Bank. The number two bank in the world was BNP Paris. Today, the top four banks in the world are all Chinese. The Deutsche Bank fallen out of the top. The five Japanese banks, Only one Mitsubishi remains. This is a shift of economic power away from the West. The United States used to think that it was in control and running things, but that's no longer the case,

that the Chinese with the four largest banks in the world, they're not there just making home loans. Let's put it that way. So China is dealing from a position of strength now that they've never had before. and they are leading the world in industrial production and their now lead is starting to lead the world financially in a way that the United States is still in denial about. Ray, tell me about spying.

Do the Chinese know what Trump is going to say before he gets there? The Chinese, when Trump goes on the 15th? Yes. Yeah, I'm sure they have good briefers that will know exactly what to, predict with respect to the unpredictable Trump thinking this through as I speak, they'll brief she quite well if this happens. But as has been said, she's got all the cards, so to speak.

And in some ways, this will point up the tremendous sort of watershed change in the strategic relationship that has been building up for years now, where you have two against one. Very, very simply, the strategic equation is two, Russia and China against one, the U.S., and the Europeans don't even count anymore. Scotty, our mutual friend and colleague Pepe Escobar says that Trump has actually created a triangle of Russia, Iran, and China, more beneficial to the three of them than they could have constructed on their own. Do you agree with this? I mean, they were headed in that direction in any ways. Iran is a member of bricks and the economic interconnectivity that was being developed.

you know, the north-south economic corridor linking St. Petersburg to Chabahar, the new Silk Road linking Tehran to Western China, and everything in between. This was happening. But there was always some built-in hesitation to give you an example. You know, when Russia and Iran first negotiated their strategic framework agreement back in January, he got stalled in the Iranian parliament. Because, you know, there's just, there was a hesitation on the part of Iran to be seen as, you know, giving up anything that could possibly infringe on their sovereignty to allow. They're very distrustful of other nations, especially Russia. They have a difficult history with Russia and the former Soviet Union. So there was a hesitancy. And there's same thing with China, a hesitancy that existed. What this war has done is blown away that hesitancy.

They are now fully committed. And more importantly for them, the Russians and Chinese are now fully committed to them as well. So, you know, this triangle existed. But now I think it's not just a triangle that's woven together by wood. This is a triangle that's carved in the hardest granite. It's not going to be broken by the United States. Larry, in the past week or 10 days, both the Chinese and the Russians have used a unique phrase. security architecture.

What are they talking about? Well, they've used it in the context that, as, you know, Ray mentioned earlier, Vladimir Putin held an hour and a half meeting quite lengthy with Arachi, Iran's foreign minister, a week ago Monday, and comes out and talks about the need to construct a new security architecture in the Gulf. And then this week, Arachi was in Beijing,

meeting with the Chinese foreign minister, and lo and behold, the Chinese foreign minister comes out and uses the same word, this security architecture in the Gulf. So that tells me right off the bat. Russia and China, they're talking to each other. Now, what is that security architecture? The previous architecture was

the United States was going to build military bases and promise to secure all the Gulf Arabs against those nasty Iranians. Hey, and in exchange for that, you've got to buy all of our treasury bills and you've got to buy a bunch of weapons from us. So it ended up being not just such a good deal for the Gulf Arabs, but they had to pay out a lot of money.

And they were promised protection. And so, you know, just like the pizza shop owner who's paid protection to the mafia, all of a sudden, because the store gets burned down. And so on the start of the war that Trump didn't go talk to the Gulf Arabs about, starts the war. Next thing, you know, they're getting the hell bombed out of them or missiles out of them by Iran.

and destroying American bases, inflicting tremendous damage upon some key infrastructure, including oil, urea production, sulfur production, and liquid natural gas. So here's Russia and China now coming along, and they're talking to the Saudis, they're talking to the Qataris, the Kuwaitis, the Emirates, the Emirates, and the Omanis. Don't know about the United Arab Emirate, but I learned today earlier today from a friend whose buddies with a general in ISI and what this general in Pakistan's intelligence service. This general, and he's a very senior, told him that they've got to confirm now that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are going to distance themselves from the United States, that they are being offered what they would consider a better, more secure deal by Russia and China. Now, I don't know if that's true, but we got a hint of it on Wednesday when, you know, Project Freedom got put on hold because the Saudis would

not allow U.S. flights out of there. That was NBC's report. I confirmed it from somebody who's in a position to know. They said, yeah, my friend said, yeah, that's exactly right. He said, we've been scrambling all day trying to figure out how to, you know, conduct these operations that are planned that we can't do. So I think Russia and China are working quietly behind the scenes, which helps explain why Iran has not yet fully retaliated in force to some of the provocations by the United States against, you know, Bondur Abbas and such. Ray, do you think, well, all right, Larry, explain what that is. That's not me. That's Trump holding a lot.

up cards from what was the name of the oh no yeah it was uno and that means he's got a losing hand and he doesn't know it because he's smiling yes right it made me forget what I was going to ask right oh now I remember do the Americans and the Israelis internally with the advice of their

intelligence agencies recognize how miserably they have failed in the past two months in this war. Well, they had high hopes two months ago. If they're reasonable people, they have to realize that this is really gone south. And what are they going to do about it? There aren't too many options. You know, they tried to steal the uranium. They tried to sell these destroyers up into the street.

They've tried all kinds of things that haven't worked. So what are they going to do now? Well, it seems to me that Trump does have some options. Scott just mentioned that on the 26th of February, there was a deal. The Omani foreign minister who mediated the talks between the Americans and the Iranians said, look, we're this close. As for the uranium, my God, we could dilute it. We could give it somewhere abroad.

And there were inspectors. and maybe including U.S. inspectors, and so we're this close, and he didn't get to first base with J.D. Vance, so he called up Margaret Brennan from CBS. Hey, Margaret, you got to let me write it on here. Nobody's going to know this if they depend on C.D. J.D. Vance, the vice president. So, you know, it's a real, it's a real sticky wicket for Trump, but he's got to realize sooner or later that he has, he has those jokers. And the Iranians have a straight flush, okay? Straight flush, and they have a straight.

So the straight has to be open. The Iranians, even according to the CIA now, have staying power for three, four months. That was leaked. That's going to make it harder for Trump and his coterie of Zionists to keep this thing going. Scotty, I want to transition over to the special military operation in Ukraine. Is Ukraine's back still to the wall?

Are elites in Russia losing patience with the slow pace of the war? That's a misinterpretation of reality. I think we have to acknowledge that, you know, the war is different today than it was two years ago, different facts set, et cetera. You know, the Russians have adapted to the harsh reality of drone warfare, but they've adapted in a way that gives them superiority over the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians have sacrificed maneuverability, armor, artillery, infantry for drone units. So literally the Ukrainian methodology is to flood the zone with drones, and that has complicated life for the Russians. but they've adapted by slowing down the pace of their operations and deploying counter-dron units.

People should Google Rubicon and take a look at what happens when Rubicon gets deployed to a certain sector. All Ukrainian drone operators die within a matter of days. And then Russia resumes its slow, steady advance. So Russia is prevailing on the battlefield, and there's nothing Ukrainians can do to stop this. They're running out of manpower, and the Russians are resolving the drone issue. It's the strategic drones that have changed the calculus. Last November, I interviewed somebody who was linked to Russia's energy sector and specifically how to protect it from drones.

And we talked about the battle damage that was being done. And he said, look, at this point in time, it's superficial. It looks good when they blow up a tank. But it hasn't done critical harm to our infrastructure. We're able to actually rapidly repair and bring these units back up to speed. That's changing. The Ukrainians now are striking Russia's strategic oil production capabilities and doing damage that is having an impact on the economy.

So there are people now who are saying what we've been doing is not effective. But that doesn't say we're losing faith, et cetera. There's just a recognition now inside Russia that they must transition from the very pragmatic, patient approach that have been taken designed to avoid escalation, which was a genius approach. But now, thanks to NATO and Europe empowering Ukrainian drones, they've put Russia in a situation where they can't sustain it because to sustain it brings real existential risk to Russia. So Russia has no choice but to change the nature of the game. So there are discussions taking place, but people like Gilbert Docterow and others,

who are monitoring this, they misinterpret that. The reality is that Vladimir Putin, yes, look, the economy is taking a pinch. So his popularity goes from 79 to 74. And suddenly, what, this is a disaster? So the fact of the matter is the Russians love their president. He has their full support. And Russia is getting ready to make a dramatic transition that is going to change the trajectory of this conflict and may expand it. You know, the Europeans are going to learn that you

don't get to turn the Baltics into a corridor to strike St. Petersburg with, because, you know, we've got the Victory Day parade tomorrow. I think the decision's been made to eradicate the decision-making center in Kiev regardless. I don't think, you know, it may not happen tomorrow, but within a short period of time, because of this strategic campaign, Russia is going to take out the Ukrainian leadership. But in less than a month, there's the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. Do you think for a second Russia is going to let a drone strike that? No.

I hope not because you and Larry and I are going to be there. Well, I don't, I mean, I'm always interested in fireworks, but note those kind of fireworks. But the point is, this is all the more reason for them to hit it. Yeah, there is justification there. But my point is that this Ukraine problem is going to be resolved before St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. That's my belief that these long-range drone strikes are going to come to an end. And Europe is going to be put on notice one way or another that it's not acceptable for them to continue to facilitate this.

Larry, do you agree? Do you expect some massive assault on Kyiv? Yeah, let's get past. I guess is the parade tomorrow, it's on Sunday. Oh, no, tomorrow is Saturday the night. Okay. Yeah, I've lost track of time. Yeah, so if they get through the parade tomorrow with no drone strikes,

regardless of whether they go directly after the Kiev Center, and I think Scott, he's probably right that they will do that at some point. You are going to see a dramatic expansion in the Russian offensive that's been underway now for really more than a month. And then they've been making significant progress. It's just people have been too focused on the possibility of the world blowing up in Iran and in the Middle East. So Russia's been able to operate a little bit below the radar, but the one thing that has changed is Ukraine has stepped up its attack on civilian targets in Russia. And that has created increased anger and a determination by Putin that, you know, this is not going to stand.

And I was laughing earlier, you know, the notion that some of, you know, some have claimed, oh, Putin's in trouble. His support, he's only got 72% positive opinion. You know, Judge, you and I both know about 538 people who are in Congress who'd kill for numbers like that, you know, that sell their mother to get numbers. So, you know, this is all ridiculous. But the transformation is at the very time that these Europe, European leaders are becoming more bombastic, more threatening, wanting to agitate towards possible war. And, you know, I think, you know, Ray sent earlier out the Medvedev's recent article about Germany. The popular support for those leaders is fallen through the floor.

And we just saw Kier Starmor get clobbered in elections in the UK. The same is going to happen to Fred Merz in Germany. Macron, he's on his way out. So all of these big advocates for a confrontation with Russia, politically, they've basically been castrated. Ray, what did former Russian president Medvedev recently say? He said, and I quote, our main task is to prevent a repetition of the tragedy of 1941, the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union. This is the most dreadful scenario that could come to pass. The probability is high of at least mutual destruction, and in reality, the end of European civilization,

while our own existence will continue. What you're trying to do is lay down a marker here and say, look, we've been through this before. France is a long time ago. Germany, not so much. And Putin has had personal experience with all this. Having survived or having his parents survived the blockade of Leningrad, where almost a million people, more people died then than the combined bombings of Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Leipzig, the rest of the German cities.

Okay. So he has this personal connection with war. and actually five years ago, I remember a poignant speech he made where he started out by saying, hey, why does life almost come to a halt on June 22nd? And why does one feel a lump rising in one's throat? Well, I was in Yalta on this anniversary about eight years ago, and there was a group of people, some of whom wives and husbands are people who had fallen then. And it was incredibly poignant, and they asked me to do a little speech, which I did. But this stuff is due to America.

It's completely oblivious among Americans to study their history. This is a big factor. They're not going to let Germany become the leader of Europe again. And Medvedev, in an unusually long and really, really hard-hitting article, has made that clear just before the parade tomorrow. So they feel real strongly about that. I think their patience may wear real thin if the Germans follow through on all these threats. Scotty, your thoughts on what Medvedev said and what he meant. Well, let me put a little additional perspective on that. Last night, the Russian embassy held

the Victory Day celebration. And I was invited. and I attended. That's why my background looks like this for all the people to think that I'm in hiding someplace. Believe it or not, some of the chatters did say that, but you're in a hotel. Yeah, an undisclosed location. But this is the fourth one in a row that I've attended. There are always grand events. I mean, it's a big day. It's a one. Last night was the most militant I've ever seen the Russians. The speech given by the ambassador. As Ray knows and Larry knows, the ambassador doesn't just write a speech off the wind that has to be, it's an official statement by an official representative in a foreign, you know, country. It's cleared through Moscow.

This was a statement that basically says, we are demanding unconditional surrender from the Ukrainians. And it put the Germans on notice. I mean, literally, they said Germany is a reincarnation of Nazi past. and they showed video clips of the Russians taking over Berlin saying this is this is Germany's future if they want to continue to go down this route. Very militant, very aggressive, unprecedented. I've never seen the Russians like this before. And the other interesting thing was that the Chinese were there in full force. Like I said, I've been there for the, this is the fourth one in a row. There's always been a Chinese presence that disappears.

When you go to this function, the officers get together, and I've been invited to their table now for four years to drink vodka. People have seen me do the toasts. And it's great. I'm there with the Defense Adiches. It's a lot of fun. This year, the Chinese Defense Atichet, Major General, was there, drinking toast with the Russians to Victory Day,

and they've incorporated into the narrative of the defeat of Nazi Germany, the defeat of Imperial Japan. They talked tonight or last night about the 40 million, Chinese that died at the hands of the Japanese, and they brought the victory over Japan up as a quote. I was watching a military partnership of gel before my very eyes. This doesn't happen by accident. This is done on purpose. So Medvedev's statement, normally people are dismissive of midviative, saying, well, he's just, you know, it's a good cop, bad cop, and he's sort of the, you know, he's the bad cop out there right now, but the good cops in charge. No, midviative statement now,

is reflective of the very dialogue that I said was happening in Moscow today. His statement should be taken at face value. There are very serious discussions taking place in Russia today about the consequences of not just striking leadership targets in Ukraine, but expanding the conflict to Europe. The Russians are very seriously targeting the production centers in Europe that produce the drones that are used to strike. And the Russians are moving that direction,

and they're prepared because Russia does nothing in a half-assed fashion. And if they initiate something with Europe, they're prepared to go all the way, which is what Midiative was saying. If you guys want to go extinct, we're willing to do it. We'll walk out of this intact. Guys, thank you very much for a fabulous, fabulous conversation on the hotspots that the four of us monitor and talk about all week. on a lighter note, when Chris got up before the son this morning,

there was an email sent to support at Judge Knapp.com from a seven-year-old girl in Cambodia by the name of Joanne Ventosa. Joanne and her father watched the show, even though it's on often at 3 o'clock in the morning by Cambodia time. and she sent a picture of your humble host. There it is. For Judge Napolitano, Napolitano,

she's got her date there, April 9th, 2026, my age seven. And if you can look carefully under my red tie, it says Scott Ritter, Larry Johnson. So, Joanna, we love you. Scott, Ray, Larry, and I love you. I am a fan of, dear Judge Napolitano, I'm a fan of your show. Every time my dad turns on your show, I recognize your voice immediately.

My dad explained the beginning of your show. I agree with you that we have to fight for freedom. Thank you for your show, Joanna Ventosa. So Joanna, thank you very much. Marcel, her father with whom I've been emailing. Thank you very much. Everybody appreciates it. Thank you for coming on.

My dear friends, have a great friend. She drew a good likeness. Her, she does have some talent there. She made me younger, Larry. Thank you, guys. All the best. All right. Thank you.

A great conversation with three of my closest friends and collaborators. Monday back to the usual routine. Alastair Crook, Larry Johnson, Ray McGovern, and probably there she is again, probably Professor Sacks in the afternoon. And Ritter, if I can get him to come back. Thank you for watching, everyone, Judge Napolitano for judging freedom.