Judging Freedom - INTEL Roundtable _ w_ Johnson & McGovern WEEKLY WRAP 19-Dec

Episode Date: December 19, 2025

INTEL Roundtable _ w_ Johnson & McGovern WEEKLY WRAP 19-DecSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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It's our favorite time where we wrap on the news with an emphasis on intelligence news on our intelligence community roundtable with my two. longtime friends and collaborators, Ray McGovern and Larry Johnson. Guys, welcome here. Thank you, as always. Thank you for the double duty. This is probably the last Intel roundtable for 2025, but not the least significant. We have so much to talk about. However, before we get to the EU trying to steal Russian money and the Prime Minister of Belgium and the Prime Minister of Belgium and the Prime Minister of Hungary, preventing that from happening and the significance of all this. Larry, you had a very interesting piece out this week, and it has fascinated me. So I got to ask this question. It may sound

naive or it may be profound. I want you both to answer it, but Larry, to you first. Do CIA analysts and officers lie to each other, Larry? Yes. Very simple, yes. About, about analysis and substantial things that one would need to know before making decisions oftentimes it's more as it's not so much the analysts it's been the folks on the operation side of the house and you know and I recounted my one of my experiences it was probably the most significant that took place on March 12th 1988 I along with the Nicaraguan military analyst from or the military analysts for the military analysts for the

the Nicaragua branch, along with the Nicaragua branch chief, and the military chief for the Central American Task Force, Directorate of Operations, went down to Capitol Hill to brief a group of congressmen about, you know, the situation between Nicaragua and Honduras. In the middle of this meeting, the branch chief gets called out and he comes back in going, oh, my God, we just got word that the Sandinistas have attacked the counter camps, which were in southern Honduras. They have overrun them. You know, it was presented like it was the Mexicans at the Alamo killing Davy Crockett and Jim Bowie.

And so we got up, concluded the brief that walked out, got in a vehicle to go back. And this guy from the Central American Task Force, last name of Armstrong, not Fulton. He goes, this is your fault, you anales. You know, you haven't been supportive enough of the program. You've undermined it. Okay. So get back out the headquarters. And I said, well, let's see what this intelligence was.

Well, it was basically a report that there had been a contra patrol, about 10 guys that were 15 kilometers south of the main contra camp. And they had stumbled across a Sandinista patrol and exchanged gunshots. Quite a different story from being told that they had the camp had been overrun and all the countries were being slaughtered. it was a Sandinista violation. In fact, Ronald Reagan took that incident and he deployed the 82nd airborne to Honduras on the pretense to fend off a Sandinista invasion. Oh, boy. So, you know, and I wrote all this in the context that at least back then, as Ray remembers,

the Directorate of Intelligence was on the north end of the CIA building. and the Directorate of Operations was on the south end of the building. And in fact, back I think when Ray first joined the CIA, they literally had doors in the middle of the building on all seven floors that separated intelligence from analysis, or I mean, the operations from analysis. And then under John Brennan, in 2015, he put together these mission centers where analysts were put together

side by side with operations personnel. Now, what happens in that setting is like what almost happened to myself and that military analyst for the Nicaragua branch. You come under pressure from the operations folks to be a team player. And, in fact, if you're not presenting the right information, you can be cut off from information. If you're not doing the right analysis, you get cut off from information. You get sidelined.

You get fired. You don't get promoted. And so what you create is a tendency to lie about what's going on. And that's exactly what we have happening right now. The CIA analysts are lying to Donald Trump to his administration about what's really going on on the ground in Ukraine. Ray, your experience with CIA analysts and officers lying to each other. well first the personal thing about larry i don't mind your shirt larry but that's swastika right behind you you're not going to get promoted anytime is that is that so much oh

william ryeham shriar the rise and fall of the third one well larry is talking about the way it is now and he's quite quite apt and and describing it you know A fish rots from its head. It's the management that can ruin a whole institution. And that happened during my watch. In other words, I was two-thirds through my career when Bobby Gates, whom I had supervised in the 70s, turned out to be the analyst for Bill Casey, a superanalyst, head of the analysis.

And so he set the stage, and then people who were, say, his disciples, like George Tenet, he came in. Now, here's a little vignette, and I have this directly from one of the fellows involved. I won't tell you his name, but his initials are Larry Wilkerson. He's up in CIA headquarters, and Heading and Colin Powell are trying to wade through this crap

that they got from the White House and from other people to make sure that they know their weapons of mass destruction there, before Karl Powell's speech now, and that there are ties between Saddam Hussein and Al-Qaeda. Now, before the attack on Iraq, about 68% of the American people believed that there were ties between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda. And, of course, that would mean Saddam Hussein was in some measure responsible for what, for 9-11? Okay. So it got so bad that Powell says, Larry, come in with all to the same.

this little room across the, it was across the corridor, but it was, they should have known it was still bugged, all right? So they talk about this, and Larry says, you know, this, this smells to high heaven and calls, okay, well, get all that stuff out about the, about the ties between, I'll do it, I'll get that right now. So they go across the corridor again, and they go and sit down next to tenant and McLaughlin and the rest of them, and all of a sudden somebody comes in. Just like Larry's story, we got a confession from one of these Al-Qaeda types.

Yeah, they're right, right. Well, you know what happened? Colvin Powell decided, well, he'd go with these guys. He'd believe Tenet, even though there was no reason in the world he should. And so he ended up saying on the 5th of February 2003, there is a sinister nexus, his words, between Saddam Hussein and Al-Qaeda. So it stinks from the top. And I've seen it happen. And it's really sad to see.

There's only one exception. And that was after the debacle on Iraq, they decided to get an honest guy in to do an estimate on Iran. His name was Tom Finger. He came for the State Department. They promised him. They would leave him alone or let him do a good estimate on nuclear Iran. He came up with an estimate. Principal conclusion was Iran stopped working.

working on a nuclear weapon at the end of 2003 and has not resumed work. That was a gutsy decision because everybody wanted to say something different. And that's held that's held till today, as far as I know. All right. To events of the past week, actually events of the past 24 hours, the Belgian Prime Minister held his ground with the assistance of the Prime Minister of Hungary

and others to prevent the EU thieves from stealing $300 billion from Belgian banks Chancellor Mers Murs became apparently apoplectic over this but he lost the vote the agreement was to secure a loan for $100,000,

billion dollars to Ukraine. Larry, where is the EU going to get $100 billion from without stealing it? Hey, I guess they say there's a sucker born every minute. So there's got to be somebody out there in the world that's going to be convinced that, you know, Russia is hanging by a thread, the economy is imploding, the military's in disarray, because they just read it Seymour Hirsch substack. It's got to be true. And, you know, I've sised mad at me right now, but I've had to point out to him that he was being fed

a complete line of what Ray politely calls Mel Bowvine excrement. And it wasn't just one lie. It was repeated. And the problem is this is coming from the intelligence community, principally the CIA. I learned yesterday from another good friend. who's still involved, active, that the overwhelming majority of the intelligence that the United States

gets concerning the situation on the ground in Ukraine, what's going on with Russia, what Russia's internal situation is like, is coming entirely from Ukrainian intelligence. The U.S. does not have independent sources. It is all derivative of what the Ukrainians are telling us. Could it be possible that the Ukrainians could be lying or shading things to make it look like what they're experiencing is actually what the Russians are experiencing? But the consequence of this is that these people involved with the negotiations, including Whitkoff and Kushner, are led to believe that Russia is suffering massive losses, that Russia is economically on the brink.

I mean, Cy Hirsch actually wrote that you can't get a loan in Russia. I saw that. It's ridiculous. You and I know that. Well, yeah,

and I, you know, I called up Stas Kripivnik. Another, I've got another friend who's a West Point grad from 1972. He moved back to Russia. The loans are available.

That's what banks do. credit cards such a ridiculous mistake and yet that information is spread around and so that's why the u.s continues to believe okay we got a chance the russians they're just we got to find that leverage no u.s does not have any leverage over russia whatsoever none zero ray um the colonel McGregor reports that yesterday, 80 tons of United States military gear left over Delaware for Poland on cargo ships destined for Ukraine, 80 tons. Add that, the number is not that big to 400 million authorize, this cash, 400 million authorized in the National Defense Authorization Act for Ukraine, that President Trump signed into law earlier this week.

How do you think the Russians feel about this? Well, I think they're amused rather than shocked. Obviously, and they have said this explicitly, Trump has problems at home. He has people that he has to demonstrate that he's not going to settle on Ukraine without Ukraine being included in the talks. He's got all kinds of things. Now, 400 million is a drop in a bucket, as you mentioned. Can the polls use that stuff?

Sure, they can. Will that ever get into Ukraine? I don't know. They can easily prevent it. The Russians can. So just a matter of time before the polls and everyone else wakes up to the fact that, look, the deal is done here. You couldn't steal the money. You can't keep them going for another year unless everybody really finds the money.

Where are they going to find the money? Oh, they're going to take it out social projects in these countries. Give me a break. They've already put big holes in the social safety net in those countries. So, yeah, I wouldn't worry about it. It's just a matter of time before, well, a matter of time. Tomorrow, Demetrius arrives in Miami again. Well, why's he going to Miami?

Gamble or, you know, son or something? Are you going to meet Whitkoff and Kushner, right? Not Rubio, but Whitkoff and Kushner. Yeah, so this, I mean, this would be funny if it hadn't happened three weeks ago. Yeah. Exactly the same thing. Larry, I hope Cy is watching because we're going to run a clip of President Putin taunting Zelensky. And if Putin was in the shape that Cy Hirsch says he's in, I don't think, excuse me,

I don't think Putin would be this happy and jocular about Zelensky. Watch this. This is from just three or four hours ago. Chris, cut number four. A writer, an artist, a talented person. I'm saying this without any irony. We know this from his films back in the old days. So there's nothing unusual about it here.

Well, they say the steely looks completely different now. But that's not the point. The steely is located about a kilometer away from the city itself. So why stand on the threshold? Come on in. That's right. Well, if Kupiansky is already under their control. I guess he was.

sort of taunting Zelensky there. He did speak, of course, with far more seriousness when he was responding to Mark Ruta. We'll play that one as well, Chris. Cut number six. Why are you talking about a war with Russia? We need to prepare for a war with Russia. They want to prepare for a war with Russia. Well, can you read the new U.S. National Security Strategy?

What does it say? The U.S., I want to point out, is the key player in NATO. The U.S. created NATO is its main sponsor, and all the main resources come from the U.S. Both money and technology, military equipment, weapons, and ammunition, all of it comes from there. This is the foundation in the new NATO's comprehensive national security strategy. However, Russia is currently not explicitly listed as a double. direct enemy. And this stance is subject to ongoing review as a target. But the NATO Secretary General is preparing for war with us? What is that supposed to mean? But can you read, how can

you say that NATO is preparing for war with Russia if the main NATO member doesn't consider us an adversary or enemy it's just i don't know even the level of professional competence in this position is insufficient larry that's the most significant part of the national security strategy russia is not the enemy russia is somebody we want to do business with i don't know what's going to happen in in marlago or miami wherever they're meeting in south florida these two clans sat on their hands while Chancellor MERS told everybody NATO would still be in Ukraine and Ukraine would have an 800,000 man army and Russia would have its military equipment, demilitarized zone in a portion of Russia.

They just didn't object to it. Well, wait a second. Let me intervene here. They sat on their hands. Look, the game is for them to keep their mouth shut, not offend the Europeans, and be able to come back and say, look, we listen. listen to them really carefully, but when Demetriov arrives tomorrow, they're going to forget all about that, because those are Europeans, and they don't matter anymore, and neither does

the Olinsky. And the Europeans won't be there tomorrow. Of course that. So they've been marginalized. So at Whitkoff, and yeah, they sat there and listened only because they had to come back to the U.S. until Congress and tell Senator Graham and all those people, look, we listen really carefully to the Ukrainians. And it wouldn't be so funny. if it hadn't had exactly three weeks ago, the same sort of route. Dmitriov arrives, and then the Ukrainians will come to be briefed, and then the deal will be made. The deal will continue to be able to.

Larry, is your view as sanguine as raise? Well, yes and no. Look, unless Russia convinces Donald Trump to sign a treaty and a treaty that is going to be submitted to the U.S. Senate, ratified by the U.S. Senate, any agreement that Donald Trump reaches with the Russian is meaningless, because Trump does not have the full political support. And I guess I continue to be shocked by how penetrated the U.S. public opinion is and has been twisted against Russia and believe this mountain of lies.

It has been told persistently that Russia is a communist state. It's an authoritarian state. It's an imperialist state. Putin is the greatest evil. The world's ever known since Adolf Hitler. In fact, he's worse than Hitler and Stalin combined, that the military's inept and competent. They're going to lose any minute.

Now, that's not a view just held by people like Lindsey Graham and Dick Blumenthal of Connecticut. It is actually held by many in the Senate. in particular, and in the House of Representatives. Now, part of the sentiment of these people has been bought by the Ukrainians. You know, they've funneled millions of dollars into at least 29 members of the House and Senate. Is Lindsay Graham corrupt? Has he been corrupted by the Ukrainians?

I believe he has. I'm told that he has been. I can't prove that. But, you know, look, the corruption goes on and the misinformation that reference to that Putin was making to Zelensky and the Stella, Zelensky, the Russians were, had captured Kupians, the Ukrainians assisted, no, they haven't. We've got it. We've got it under control. See, here's a picture of Zelensky standing next to the sign that's on the outskirts of Kupyansk. The problem was, then some curious local Ukrainians went out and filmed that location, and the sign was basically

been blown up. It was damaged. So what, what, What they proved was this was just another green screen effect where they put Zelensky in front of something, made it as propaganda. And that's what the West continues to do best, create all this propaganda, trying to convince the public, especially in the United States, that Ukraine still has a chance. I mean, Russia, all it's going to take is another little push, just a little more pressure, and Russia is going to collapse. And that's whatever goodwill exists between the Russians and Trump. And I think it is genuine. And that's where, you know, I agree with Ray on that. And Demetriov has got the confidence of Whitkoff and Kushner, and it's probably vice versa.

But the bulk of the U.S. political establishment does not support that. They support the European position. And I don't see how the Russians can put any faith or confidence in any. agreement signed just with Donald Trump's broke without without two-thirds of the Senate ratified I think that's a great analysis Ray I want your thoughts on something else President Putin said we'll run the clip for you right now

suggesting this is terrific Russia and Europe should trade with each other rather than fighting with each other for five Chris and if we were to enjoy our efforts with European countries, Russia in European countries, our joint GDP would be higher than the United States. Of course, this is all theoretical, but it is quite obvious. The fact is quite obvious that unifying and complementing our abilities

would thrive instead of fighting each other like you are doing. How do people like Ray, Starmor, McCrone, and Mertz and their buddies react when the president of Russia says unifying and complementing our abilities and we will thrive instead of fighting each other? Well, McCone yesterday said, well, maybe we ought to talk to Russia. Oh! Oh, look, the game is up. They can't have the money.

They can't have the armaments. They can't have a really good deal on Ukraine. And what is possible out of all this? Well, if you look a couple of years or even a couple of months in advance, nothing is impossible. Now, I would cite John F. Kennedy, at a time when communist, the atheist communism, was just as bad as they came out of Russia Gate, okay? And what did he do? He gave his speech. And he said, look, as a token of my willingness

to meet Russia's halfway, I'm going to do a limited test ban treaty, okay? And everybody says, yeah, right, treaty. You're picking a treaty for the Senate. No way can you do that. Korshov published that speech completely in Pravda. And in two months, April Hammerman and the others had concluded the treaty, and the treaty was ratified. by the Senate. Now, it takes a little adroitness and diplomacy. Maybe Trump doesn't have that, but don't rule anything out that might come months in advance. As the national security strategy says, now it is a core principle, core principle, Russian language of the United States to have a good substantive strategic relationship with Russia. And the way to do that is to get the Ukrainian thing

behind us. That's right in the thing. So when Putin is saying very, that's uncharacteristic for him to be so sharp, yeah, the game is over. And why don't the Europeans realize that, you know, are they going to go with the people that break their pipelines like Nord Stream? Or they got people that made their electric and their gas fills like one sixth of what they are now? There's lots of room for new over here that has not been there before. And as I say, the primary Russian objective, which they keep saying, is to have a decent relationship with the United States. Ukraine is secondary. You can bomb the hell out of Iran even. That's secondary. The stakes are high. Why? Because Putin can't trust an material person like Trump with his

fingers on the nuclear codes to act sensibly. He's got to cajole him. He's got to He's got to babysit him. He's got to bring him along gradually. And I think he's succeeded in that to a large extent with this new national security strategy. I agree with what Ray has said, Larry, and I thought your analysis right before Ray was right on the mark. In a sense, Trump has more difficulty with the Tom Cotton's and Lindsey Graham's of the world than he does with Vladimir Putin. Yeah, yeah. Look, the national security.

security strategy with respect to Europe was previewed back in February at the Munich Security Conference when J.D. Vance stood up and basically told the Europeans, hey, you suck and you need to create, fix yourselves. I wouldn't have been surprised if Trump had set one of those cards that play music and the Europeans open it up and it's Fleetwood Max singing, go your own way. you know that Trump administration is sending signals to the Europeans and I can understand it from Trump's standpoint just in terms of what the Europeans did to Trump during Russiagate they were collaborate the UK was the lead but there were others throughout Europe that collaborated in providing intelligence to try to paint Trump as an agent of Russia so on just that point alone Trump Trump not inclined to have warm, friendly, cuddly relationships with any of the NATO-EU crowd.

Now, he's not going to go out and necessarily publicly pick a fight with him, but he does understand this. Europe brings nothing to the table. I mean, up to this point, Trump's had to threaten and conjure them just to get them to offer a verbal commitment to kick in 5% for NATO of their GDP. It still hasn't happened. and all of the time when Europe is economically in real trouble.

So, you know, I think Trump correctly at least sees a possible economic future with Russia. But the problem Trump has is the intelligence community is undermining them, putting out an alternative measure. Right. Gentlemen, we have to go. I have to tell you that at the outset of this show, so 35 minutes or so ago, judging freedom had 99,887,000 views. That means that we will probably break 100 million views in 2025 sometime over the weekend. No two people have contributed more to this than the two of you,

who have done double duty regularly, consistently, systematically every week, and once in a while, triple duty depending upon the news cycle. I thank you from the bottom of my heart. I think by the time I see each of you individually, because this is probably our last roundtable for 2025, by the time I see each of you individually on Monday morning, we will have broken $100 million. That's for the second year in a row.

It puts us in a very exclusive category. It means more people are watching this than watch a certain, I won't mention the name, News Network. Gentlemen, thank you. I love you both. Thank you for everything. Have a great weekend and we'll see you on Monday. Thank you, Judge. Thank you. And coming up on Monday, now it's a strange week for us because we're dark live from lunchtime Wednesday, Christmas Eve on, but we're going to pack in as many of our regular guests all day Monday, all day Tuesday, and Wednesday morning as we can. For sure, on Monday morning, your usual favorites.

Alastair, Crook, Ray McGovern, Larry Johnson, and you'll be surprised with who we'll have Monday afternoon. Thank you for watching. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thank you. Thank you.