Judging Freedom - INTEL Roundtable : Weekly Wrap 12-DEC

Episode Date: December 12, 2025

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Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for judging freedom. Today is Friday, December 12th, 2025, the end of the day, the end of the week, our favorite time. It's the Intelligence Community Roundtable with my double-duty, longtime friends and collaborators, Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern. Gentlemen, welcome here. Thank you for your. Thank you for accommodating my schedule. Ray, to you first, do you think there is a reluctant consensus brewing in the West that Ukraine is beyond salvation? Well, if you mean in the Western press, I think it's beginning to come. Yeah, there have been all kinds of recognitions that Ukraine's not, after all, going to win this thing. Within the European leadership, you know, that's really hard to say. They keep making these psychotic statements. I can't believe that they believe these things, but they're not given up yet on helping Ukraine.

And, of course, the major point comes on the 18th. So next week, when Ursula von der Leyen wants to seize the Russian assets, today the Russians threatened to confiscate $18 billion from Europe, And you're clear, of course, is trying to do the same things as the Russians are trying to prevent this thing. My guess, and it's only a guess, is that even Ursula is not going to be able to prevail on this one because of the banks, because the banks just won't trust her. Larry, do Marco Rubio and his neopon con colleagues, Marco Rubio, who's notably been excluded from whatever negotiations, the United States is having with the Russians still think that Western money and arms can salvage Ukraine? Does the Victorian Newland attitude still prevail after four years of war?

And it is very correctly noted. It's fading, and it's fading fast, which accounts for the desperation and these extreme statements that we're hearing out of the Europeans. The fact that this week alone, Severisk, which is, you know, they've been fighting over for 40 months. It fell very quickly. And that's on the hills of losing Pocross, Mernigrad, Kramatorsk. The Russians are picking up momentum. And the West is just desperately, the Europeans in particular, are desperately scrambling around trying to figure out what to do next.

In Washington, though, it certainly appears that Donald Trump is moving away because, you know, He's been adamant about new elections in Ukraine. Don Jr. was in Doha last weekend, last Sunday, just ripping Zelensky up one side and down the other. So there's not a friendly atmosphere here. But the reality is the West is not in control of this process. The West, they can't stop this. They can't change this, short of using nuclear weapons. What do you think they talked about, Ray, at 10 Downing Street last Monday?

You had the three blind mice there with Zelensky, Chancellor MERS, President McCrone, Prime Minister Stormer. They came out with this cockamamie idea that there would be elections, which pleases Trump, which may even please Putin, if somebody has validly elected for him to deal with. with, but that the elections would be supervised and security would be assured by NATO, which is, of course, insane that they would even articulate that. Yeah, there's not much sanity left among these folks. You know, if they were honest, as I think I said on Monday, if they were honest, they would have said, look, you know, we tried, we're really sorry about all this. We legit to believe you could prevail over the Russians.

Well, look, the end is coming. You got to recognize reality here, Ola Zelensky. Now, if they did that, and 50% in my can that they did, unless he wasn't buying any of it, and he's still going for broke, no territorial concessions and all that stuff. Meanwhile, Putin and Trump are sitting back and saying, okay, let's get those negotiators working away over Christmas under the direction of the Russian foreign ministry. And somebody on our side, they're probably Rubio's folks plus people like

Whitkoff and others. So the thing dribbles along, the battlefield reverses that Larry just referred to are considerable. Larry's right. They fought over this territory for three years, okay? And the way is open. And, of course, as you know, Putin had a big conference with his battlefield commanders yesterday and reviewed not only the strategy, but the tactics as to how these motorcycle guys get into places like Siversk and take them over. Here's, Larry, before you reply to that, here's our friend, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, on December 11th. So yesterday, saying, essentially, I mean, you'll hear him in a second, Europe is undermining the opportunities for peace.

Chris, cut number two. The others, the minority, want to find a strategy out of the conflict. They want to find ways to de-escalate and to create conditions for the political settlement. This policy of the part of European countries follows the spirit of Donald Trump's administration. It has turned from words to action. It's been the case for quite some time, and it has used its influence on Kiev to convince Zelensky

to get back to negotiating process. We value this efforts, just like the readiness of a number of our countries to provide their platform for contacts, although frankly speaking Zelensky with the support of various leaders in Brussels, Berlin, London, Paris tries to undermine

these efforts and make up some excuses Zelensky with the support of leaders in London, Paris Brussels and Berlin tries to undermine what we're doing, Larry well the one good news is not a unified vision in europe it's fractured uh and even among the ones that want

to keep the fight going in ukraine france germany and the united kingdom even they are divided on this issue of seizing the russian assets and but what is alarming is particularly the rhetoric coming out of Germany via Chancellor Mertz, who is talking openly about going to war with Russia. And, you know, this... Does he have the military with which to justify such an absurd statement? No, he might as well be talking about he's going to get his kids a herd of unicorns for Christmas, and then they could write them around the various towns in Bavaria.

but they're still talking that way and start trying to make efforts and that elicits a response for the Russian side because they can't sit back there and go I have mercy he's just crazy we don't have to take him seriously no the Russians are going to assume that he is serious and they must be prepared to confirm that so this is as this war the war is winding down it actually gets a little more dangerous because of the potential for reckless action on the part of germany the uk and france they are they really are completely cut off from reality now and they're indulging in this fantasy about the weakness of russia and that russia's economy is collapsing and that the military is suffering huge losses and just one more little push

and they're going to collapse like a jinga tower uh ray um Colonel McGregor and our other mutual friend, Pepe Escobar, are of the view that NATO is unraveling. And just as NATO is unraveling, the head of the NATO military committee, an Italian admiral by the name of Giuseppe Dragonini, talks about firing missiles into Russia. Pepe says this guy is serious and dangerous, and McGregor says Maloney is a neocon with an Italian last name. Well, Judge, you know Italian better than I do, you know, but Maloney means melonhead, I think. And this is the most name, the Admiral? What is he? Giuseppe, what?

Dragoni. Isn't that to mean dragon breather? I mean, you know. So in other words, I said this last time, I think, well, I won't say it again, the Italians are trying to keep up with the Germans, but they don't want to, you know, they're sort of a little bit out of it, but there want to be with the coalition of the three that you mentioned, the coalition of the dumb. NATO is breaking apart. Let's face it, you know, the last Meadow Summit, when Trump came in a little bit late, and Routé, the Secretary General said, oh, my God, thank God, Daddy is here. Hi, Daddy.

We're saved, okay? Well, they weren't saved because the communique that came out of that meeting was very different from the one that came out the previous time, and that was, they said, earlier, that Ukraine had an irreversible path toward membership in NATO. And at this meeting, there was not a single mention of that kind of thing. And the communique was about a third of the size of the earlier one. Nao was finished, okay? And Big Daddy, as I've said before, turns out to be a, what do you call that?

A guy who doesn't pay child support, you know? Yeah, I mean, that's a big thing. Pepe reminded me in our interview that the, that there are five huge NATO bases in Italy and probably NATO, I don't know what you would call them, facilities underground. Are they really about to unravel or is there just too much of an investment there? Well, the unraveling actually started before now, because. because it goes back to the fact that most of the NATO membership has not been supplying 5% of their GDP into the NATO pot. Most of the militaries are not combat operational or combat ready. You know, Andrei Martiano, who you've also spoken to, he did quite an extensive piece on just the collapse of the Russian, of the U.K., submarine service, and comparing it to Russia's, which Russia and Russia and,

the U.S. are basically on par, is having the two most advanced submarine fleets in the world, whereas the Brits are struggling just to get us one, one submarine staffed and out of port. In addition to that, the British military is openly advertising. Now, think about this. They're openly advertising for a commander to be in charge of the submarine service. Who the hell's ever heard of that? Yeah, well, everyone's looking, going, you know, they're like on social media. You know, I can see, I should see some guy sitting at home smoking pot and going, hey, man, I might be able to do that. I've played enough video games.

Wow, wow. It's out of Gilbert and Sullivan. It almost is out of Gilbert and Sullivan. I'll tell you what's not out of Gilbert and Sullivan. I'm thinking of the Pirates of Penzance, Ray, the seizure of the Venezuelan tanker, in my view, an act of piracy by the United States. Of course.

What does it have to do with drug smuggling unless you think maybe some of those drugs were putting plastic bags and put into the oil and give me a break, you know? The whole thing is so transparent. It's not drug smuggling. It's about something else. It's about flexing.

our muscles in accordance with the new national security strategy, which is sort of circumscribed to doing what we can do, where we want to do in our own hemisphere, and I'm afraid, in our own country, our homeland, as we call it now. Larry, let me let me interject there because there's something so strange about the story. Sure. And it's reported that oil going from Iran to. to Venezuela was intercepted. And I'm thinking, Iran has oil,

Venezuelan has oil. This is like the people in Maine, after the snowfall that's hitting the northeast, they load up a pickup truck and say, you know what, we're taking our snow to Alaska. I don't think Alaska needs snow either. So there's something else very bizarre. Where do you think the oil was going?

The Trump people haven't even, president hasn't even made a claim about drugs. I think Array was a little tongue-in-cheek there, understood, because he's been so fanatical about the drugs. What conceivable justification could the government articulate, no legal justification, but what political justification could the government have articulated, Larry? Well, I don't think there's any. That oil may have been headed for Cuba, actually, as a possibility. But here's what I think was really going on. You've got all these Navy SEALs that have been forward deployed and they're locked and loaded. They're ready. We're ready. We're ready. And it's been going on now for almost

four months. So, hey, here's a tanker. We don't even have to do it as an exercise. Go ahead and take the tanker and get you guys, you know, off the ship. You get to do what you're supposed to do. I think it was actually just trying to deal with the boredom of some of the U.S. Special Operations Forces that are deployed in the area. I think these I don't know if they were Coast Guard or Navy, Larry and Ray. They were seals. The ones that repelled down from the helicopters, like there. What's that character's name from the Pirates movie?

Jack Sparrow. Yeah, yeah. Just repelling down, pointing automatic weapons in the face of a guy who's just doing what he's paid to do, which is deliver the oil from A to B. Yeah. And again, when they come out with the storyline that's got all the villains, it's Iran. It's Venezuela. They're bad. And, but, you know, step back and say, again, why is Iran sending oil to Venezuela when oil, with Venezuela is one of the world's

largest oil producers? Just seems a little contradictory. Ray, what do you think China and Russia will do if Trump attacks Venezuela? I was afraid you asked me that question. This is the most important question you can. I don't know. I know that the Russians keep emphasizing the strategic agreement that was signed just a month or two ago with Venezuela and that the Chinese have a hell of a lot of equity in Venezuela.

And so I can't conceive of them sitting. back and saying nothing, they must be using their subterranean channels to Washington to say, look, Mr. Trump, you've got to get another Vietnam here. And besides that, we have equities here. Just as with Vietnam, we're going to have to actually arm and support Venezuela. But you really want that? And what's going to happen to your plan for the peace prize and for a successful conclusion of Ukraine. You know, he really not to do this, Mr. Trump. And I like to think that maybe he's listening, maybe even though he has all this stuff right off the shore there, that he might just settle for some sort of umbrella agreement with Maduro to conceal a reverse, a

withdrawal by the U.S. President Maduro had a two-hour phone call with President Putin, and they both announced it, so we believe it happened. What do you think? Well, I think Russia is providing it a minimal moral support. They actually have provided some military support in terms of weapons systems. The possibility of having deployed some advisors. But I don't see Russia as wanting to get into a –

kind of military confrontation with the United States. And, you know, China has interests, as right noted, as well as Iran. So Maduro is not alone in this. And this is, you know, some have, you know, I do see some parallels with how we try to provoke Manuel Noriega over the course of a year. It started really roughly about December of 87, continued until the, we've actually came up with a reason, bogus, albeit, to invade Panama back in December of 1988. And I know that because my branch, the Central America branch,

one of the analysts there was, she was constantly working with the Directorate of Operations because it was a massive, it was a massive propaganda campaign, information operations, trying to shape it. But at that time in Panama, we had Southern Command headquarters, Southcom, was there at Corey Heights, Panama, just outside of Panama City. well as another base up in the north in cologne which is the northern end of the panama canal well we don't have any of that in venezuela and and when you when you consider the fact that venezuela is three times the size physical size of vietnam it has as much jungle as vietnam it has

more rugged mountain terrain than vietnam and that at the height of our involvement in vietnam we had 543,000 troops in April of 1969. And with all of those troops, we could not defeat the North Vietnamese. Here we now have 18,000 parked offshore. And it is complete madness if Trump decides to put any of our troops, either Marines, soldiers, or sailors on shore.

because the odds of them getting killed would be significantly higher than anything that happened in Afghanistan or Iraq. So this is, and then the other option is bomb certain sites. Well, again, particularly bombing in the jungle, as we learned in Vietnam, is not a real terrific strategy for bringing another country to its knees. So this would be another example of Trump trying to use military force to play the tough guy and getting embarrassed. Ray, do you think that your former colleagues and the CIA actually think that they could remove Noriega and forcibly replace him with this Mashado woman who works for them and for the Shind or the Mossad?

Remove Maduro, right? Right. Remove Maduro and replace him with the woman that won the Peace Prize. That may be mispronouncing her last name. No, Michado, yeah. Well, you know, you have a bifurcation in the CIA. You have the operatives who support the seals and other things and actually act with the seals.

And then you have what is hoped to be substantive analysts, which will tell you the truth. Now, John Kennedy, when he was persuaded to do the Bay of Pigs operation, found out that after the operation, when it fell apart, that the analysts were not even told about the operation, much less asked for their opinion on whether Castro would fall immediately as soon as they landed on the beach, which is what Kennedy was told by the operatives.

So it's a question, Larry knows this well, too, because he's been right in this fight. It's a question as to whether the operatives can provide, prevent the president himself from getting real substantive information by denying them information or denying them a chance to publish. When I was working on the president's daily brief and briefing every other morning downtown, it came about that we had to make sure that the Contra Task Force saw what we were going to show the president the next morning.

was unprecedented and it was completely irregular. We obeyed instructions, showed it to them, and then disregarded all the changes they wanted us to make, saying, ah, the country's blah blah. So it's it's this

same bifurcation thing with the CIA. Who knows? Usually it's the operatives that win the day. Yeah, I'm reminded that I misspoke earlier calling Maduro Noriega. I was obviously referring to To Maduro.

Larry, our colleague, Colonel McGregor, says that Iran is significantly stronger and better prepared today than it was last June. But Netanyahu's crazy enough to attack anyway, and Trump is obliged to do whatever Netanyahu wants. Agreed? Yeah, yeah. Iran's not out of the woods yet. but boy they're certainly near the edge compare you know 10 years ago you had russia and china sign on to western sanctions the plan of jCPOA that by god if iran doesn't tell the line we're going to sanction them russia and china that was their position then today the russia and china have

basically told the west to go pound sand that they're not going to do anything to enforce any sanctions against iran so now iran has an opening that is being exploited for better commercial relations with both China, Russia, and other members of the BRICS. In fact, I think Putin just today or yesterday spent two hours with President Peschekin of Iran and telling Pizschen, hey, when you return home, give the Ayatollah my deepest, warmest regards. So on top of that, prior to the June 13th decapitation attempt, by Israel, Iran was rejecting overtures to provide military assistance by both Russia and China. They were in that, mother, please, I'd rather do it myself mentality. But after June 24th,

they turned to the Russians and to the Chinese and said, hey, guys, so we'd be more than happy to accept your offers of assistance. And that has been followed up by numerous trips by senior military officials both on the Russia Chinese side as well as on the Iranian side with the Iranians going to Moscow and to Beijing so and throughout this entire period Russia has Iran has continued to produce missiles that advanced missiles that neither the United States nor Israel can stop and Russia has dramatically stepped up along with China air defense systems for Iran so Doug is exactly right Iran is in a much stronger position now.

Wow. Ray, is the CIA on the ground in Iran? Mossad is on the ground in Iran. This is Mossad's territory. I imagine CIA station in Tel Aviv or West Jerusalem is monitoring things carefully. But with Mossad heavily infiltrating Iran over the last decades, there's no need for a CIA presence there. I would comment on Doug and what Larry just said.

I think the interesting question now is whether Netanyahu could expect support from Trump this time around. Last time, Trump had a doubt in your mind? Yeah, there is. Last time Trump had to bail him out, right? Yes. When he's reading and showed them what they could do. This time, there's really perceptible downgrade. of support for Israel in our country.

Witness Tucker Carlson just saying, in his whole program, how do we end up supporting genocide? Is this because we only have one ally and that's an ally we should shun or get rid of? Tucker Carlson. The other thing is the national security strategy. It pays very little attention to Middle East

that says, you know, at least, Yeah, that used to be a really, really hot bit of, but we'll give that about third or fourth priority here. We're interested in the Western Hemisphere in China and Ukraine and the Middle East. We'll take care of itself eventually. So I see a drop off. I think that McGregor is right, but I think it's also because Trump can no longer depend on the kind of Niger support for Israel that he used to enjoy. and Tucker Carlson is big. Larry, do you share the same view

that Trump would hesitate to give Netanyahu what he wants, when he wants, when he goes after the Ayatollah? Yeah, I think there's, they don't recognize in the White House. They're in trouble with this pro-Israel-Israel-first, Zionist-first mentality. And the Zionists, Netanyahu in particular, they are pushing back hot and heavy trying to stanch the bleeding.

But I think it is unstoppable because what you see is a real fracturing within the conservative, the MAGA base between those who won America first and then the Zionists that insist that America has got to take a back seat to all Israeli interests. And Ray is exactly right, pointing out Tucker's latest, or it's not as late, he's got another conversation out with Matt Walsh today. But his conversation last night where he spent time with the UN rapporteur, the one responsible for monitoring the genocide, gave her extensive amounts. I think her name's Albinase. And, you know, Tucker was scathing. And this is, look, this is one of the reasons I believe that Charlie Kirk was killed. Because he gave Tucker a platform and others, Dave Smith, who took on this clown from Newsweek, Josh Hammer, and then literally hammered hammer on a debate stage in Tampa in July. So the TikTok crowd that's under the age of 35, they're not in the Israeli camp, the Zionist camp, this nonsense that, oh, if we're going to be.

be a good Christian. You got to love the, you got to love the Israelis killing children. No, people are sick of that and they're, and they're shunning them. And that's got them spooked. It's funny you should have each mentioned Tucker. Chris thinks I put you up to mentioning Tucker because he will be here on Wednesday. One hour, Tucker Carlson, on judging Freedom, 11 o'clock Eastern this coming Wednesday, December 17. Now, Tucker and I communicate with each other a lot, but we haven't done anything on air together, of course, since the two of us were back at Fox, which is a long time ago, and I'm looking forward to that.

Guys, thank you very much for your time. Larry, I know you're traveling this weekend. Safe travel, stay warm, and we'll see you both on Monday. Thank you, Judge. Thank you. All the best. And coming up on Monday, Alster Crook, Ray McGovern, Larry Johnson, Professor Jeffrey Sacks, and as you heard me say, Wednesday, December 17th, 11 o'clock in the morning, Tucker Carlson,

for an hour on judging freedom. I can't wait. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thank you.