Judging Freedom - Is Ukraine Finished? w/Karen Kwiatkowski fmr USAF

Episode Date: October 12, 2023

Is Ukraine Finished? w/Karen Kwiatkowski fmr USAFSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, October 12th, 2023. Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski joins us now. Apologies for the late start. Occasionally, you all know this, there are gremlins in the internet. We think we caught them. Colonel Kwiatkowski, Karen, always a pleasure. Welcome back to the show. What is your take on the incredible military and intelligence failure in Israel over the weekend? Intelligence that the Mossad, the vaunted Mossad and its colleagues in MI6 and CIA, you've worked with these people, didn't catch this coming. The Egyptians supposedly warned them that didn't go anywhere. The troops were moved around at the border and there were just too few of them at the spots that they were needed.

How could such failures have happened? Well, they happened. So we know they happened. How they happened is a question that I think the Israelis themselves are going to be asking. The more that were going on, where the concert was and whatnot. So, you know, what thinking goes behind that? I don't know. I think the Israelis themselves are asking. As far as not listening and not paying attention to signs that were there, clearly there, that's a whole other problem. So you have mismanagement both at the strategic intelligence level and also at the, you know, the tactical level. I mean, the border protection level. It's, I mean, it's tragedy, but it's embarrassing, I think, for the structures that we have there in Israel and in the United States. You know, we think we

have perfect intelligence and a perfect ability to protect our nations. And I think we're seeing both in our own case and certainly in the case of Israel, those assumptions were wrong. Tell us how intel works. Intel picked up something, chatter, movement, transportation of ammunition, who would they call and who would make a decision whether or not to send that information up the food chain? Well, generally, they'll call their counterparts. So it's really pretty high up. I mean, lower level people don't necessarily talk in between nations. It goes up to a pretty high level before they make that phone call. Why the phone calls either were not taken or were not given enough weight, this is hard to say,

but I do think just from what we know about human nature, I think there is a lot of arrogance that that impacts it. You know, you have people tell you things you say, well, I know that I don't need to hear that. I already know, you know, we're the greatest defensive force on, you know, in the region. We don't need that. Karen, we're showing live shots of Gaza. So it's six hours ahead there, or seven hours. It's two o'clock here on the East Coast. So it's just nighttime there, about nine in the evening, and you can see the explosions. The lower left is Tel Aviv. The upper two across the top on the lower right are Gaza.

Our friend and colleague Alistair Crook said the same thing when he attributed the intel and military failures to two things, the second of which was an over-reliance on AI and an under-reliance on human intelligence, and the first of which was arrogance, a belief that we cannot be penetrated. This was arguably, we'll get to Cy Hersh in a minute, the piece you sent me from Cy, this was arguably the greatest intelligence failure in the history of Egypt. Even the 67 War and the 73 War, civilians weren't slaughtered, military was attacked. Yeah. So let me jump ahead. Is Netanyahu finished? A lot of people think that he is, and certainly he walks a fine line in any case. I mean,

he's had to compromise in ways of coordinating with people he wouldn't, parties and groups that he wouldn't ordinarily coordinate with in order to retain power. His popularity has been shrinking for a long time, and people question his judgment, and not least of which, prior to this, the big news, of course, was Netanyahu's attempt to subjugate the judicial system in Israel, and it looked to everyone that was watching it in Israel that he was doing this to protect his own hide. So, you know, that's not, he's not well thought of before this. This disaster, this defense disaster, this intelligence disaster, whatever it turns out to be, is going to be on Netanyahu. He needs to be blamed for it. And I think unlike in America, where we blamed no one for our 9-11 failures, I do think that Israel will, the people of Israel and the parties of

Israel will determine who's at fault here, and they're going to be done with him. I would think it's hard for him to, his prime ministership to survive this conflagration. I don't think they're going to change horses. They can't have an election in the middle of this, but I can't see him staying on much beyond this. We have a clip I want to show you, Gary. So this is the Neil Cavuto interview where Michael McFaul, who's the chair of the House Foreign Relations Committee is watching General Kirby answer questions, and the question is were the Israelis alerted about this ahead of time? You're going to see two different answers from two different branches of the American government, executive and legislative.

Can you speak to the reports that Israel was warned by Egypt? I can't. McCaul from Foreign Affairs made that allegation this morning, saying that that was something that members were told in—on the—or on the Foreign Affairs Committee. So, has that been discussed at all, or is that something you're looking into? I can't speak to specific intelligence matters. Again, there will be a time to look back at this, as we always do and we will.

Right now, we're sharpening the intelligence gathering and cooperation and sharing with Israel, as we should, since they're involved in active operations, and we're making sure that they get the tools they need. All right, so your intelligence might be saying one thing. Chairman John Kirby might be holding cards close to his vest. His and at the White House says another. Who's right? Well, we do know the Egyptian intelligence did refer this to Israel. And I can't get

into any more depth. With thanks to my former colleagues and still friends at Fox. Karen, for him to say we do know that the Egyptian intel informed Israel, he has a top security clearance and he's entitled to briefings on that. Did he just reveal national security secret information in that interview? Well, you know, he's confirming what's in the news, which I don't think they really generally prosecute higher-ups for. But yeah, he's probably speaking the truth. He's directly contradicting the White House, and I think that's important. And he's also putting fodder onto the discussion that how did Netanyahu's government and how did how did its military fail in this regard? How did they make such a mistake? Did Netanyahu's government provoke Hamas by continuing to operate a concentration camp for two and a half million people.

Well, you know, the history of Hamas, as we know, and I think as many people know, was an Israeli attempt to counterbalance the Palestinian Authority that they weren't unhappy with years and years ago. And so, you know, they get their own terrorist group. Americans have been there. We've had our own terrorist groups numerous times, certainly. Our history after 9-11 was an example of where we worked with a terrorist group that then turned against us. So I think it's, clearly that's part of it. Did Netanyahu have something to do with that? I think historically he may have, which will again help to sink him. But yeah, the provocations, I hate to say, there's a constant push from Israel to expand territory.

And this is not new. It's been going on pretty consistently for quite a while. And the peace process, you can't even call it a process. It's not a process. It's much like what happened in Ukraine in 2014. You know, it's a treaty that no one really intends to follow. Does the Israeli government want regional rapprochement, or do they want to subjugate the unfortunate human beings that live in Gaza? Well, to me, it's very clear. When you talk about shutting off water, electricity, food, energy, transport, any of those things, all at once, with no discussion of what it will take to lift those sanctions. And there's more than sanctions. That is a complete blockade. And you're talking about

doing it in a place that is already isolated, already, like you mentioned, kind of a concentration camp of sorts, 2.3 million people living in a 22 square miles, something like that. So it's people that are densely packed together with everything they need being able to be shut off by the Israelis. And then the Israelis government has decided to shut it all off. Without any, you know, it's not like we're going to shut it off. No, they're shutting it off. And then they'll talk later. That is, well, I hate to agree with Biden, but it does sound like the rules of war, if we have rules of war, are being ignored here. And of course, from the Israeli perspective, you know, they received this horrendous, horrendous retaliation. That didn't abide by the rules of war either. But it's hard to say with the history here who has

the responsibility. I think everyone has the responsibility to work for peace here. Is there a danger in Prime Minister Netanyahu's overreaction. I mean, put aside that some of this is a war crime, if they intentionally or randomly or with indifference slaughter innocents, just as Hamas did, there's going to be some sort of blowback, whether it's internationally or domestically, to that type of overreaction. Surely the concept of collective punishment, starving two and a half million people by not allowing them to have water or electricity or food, simply cannot be justified morally, legally, politically, or militarily. Yeah, that's true. It can't be justified.

What does drive it to some extent, though, is a desire to make the problem go away, and that means make 2.3 million people go away, whether they become refugees or they die, and then to take over that territory as part of Israel. Because I hate to say it, but the pattern in the past has been to ratchet more and more territory at every opportunity. In fact, that's part of what was going on in the South where they were attacked. I mean, they were celebrating into territory that really technically, you know, was occupied territory, and they're having celebrations. The Israelis are celebrating there and, you know, it's good to celebrate, but it reflects this incessant expansion of Israeli territory. And I see this could be an opportunity for them to take Gaza completely and

change it from a concentration camp to a place where they can put settlements because there's no one there. There's no one there to stop them. I don't know. I hope that's not what they're thinking, but it looks like it. All right. So one of the Israeli generals said in the past 48 hours, when we're finished, there will be no buildings standing. Whoever lives there will be living in tents. The security minister, I guess that's the rough equivalent of their FBI director, says, who cares? The Palestinians are subhumans. Now, Netanyahu was not going to speak that recklessly. But if that is an animating cultural force behind what's happening, clearly this is a gross, immoral, illegal overreaction. And an overreaction produces another reaction, as we all know, because this is human nature that we're dealing with.

I want to get back to something that you said earlier. Was Netanyahu personally involved in the creation of Hamas? And how did Israel create Hamas as a buffer to the Palestinian Authority with which it was having difficulty getting along? I'm not an expert on it, but it appears that they helped fund it and they worked with the Qataris to help fund it. And of course, Qatar is, well, we have a base, we have a big air force base in Qatar, but Qatar is also kind of the safe house, safe home and financial supporter of Hamas. And the Israelis worked with them years ago to kind of balance out, to have two parties for the Palestinians instead of just one that they didn't like. And Netanyahu himself was involved in this earlier on when he was,

he served as prime minister several times. So one of his earlier jobs. You know, a lot of things make sense when you don't take in all the information and you think that you are never going to have to pay for your mistakes. If you're arrogant and you think you can draw out how the world should work, you do a lot of things. And then when they come back to bite you, it's like, how did this happen? Well, it happened because other things happened before that. And this, like you said, this overreaction to some extent, if it is a slaughter, if it is a turning Gaza into a parking lot, that will have an equal and opposite reaction. And it will be a global one. More and more we see a global response because we're all connected.

And there are many people who in this age of, I think, soft heartedness, perhaps, you know, we call it what do we have wokeness and, you know, everyone has a place. Well, guess what? You know, the Gazans don't have a place right now. And a lot of people, if it goes on and if it isn't restrained and if it isn't within the rules of conflict, rules of war, if it violates those principles, many, many people in the world won't see it as Israeli Palestine. They're going to see it for what it is, which is a slaughter of innocents. And they're not innocent, of course, from the Israeli perspective, but that's how many in the world who don't understand any of the history, they're going to see this and they're going to say, you know what, that's not right. And it isn't right.

But the whole world will weigh in on this. And I think Israel has to look to see what is good for Israel in the long run. And I think to be more rational, to be more focused in what they're doing. And I think they have to admit some of the problems. If they created, if Netanyahu was party to creating Hamas, you know, he might need to own that, or it'll get owned for him. And it'll be used as a dagger against him as they remove him permanently. And he may end up in jail as a result. Right, right, right. I want to play for you. We've been playing this the past two days.

In my view, very profound. And maybe you've seen it if you have my apologies and to our viewers, my apologies. But I'm anxious for your thoughts on this. This is President Putin giving an off the cuff, no notes in his hands, about a minute, 20-second long analysis of American foreign policy failures in the Middle East. Unfortunately, we can see a sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. I think that many will agree with me that this is a clear example of the failure of the policy of the United States in the Middle East, which tried to monopolize the resolution of the conflict, but unfortunately wasn't concerned with finding compromises acceptable to both sides. On the contrary, it promoted its own ideas about how this should be done, put pressure on both sides, first

on one side, then on the the other every time without taking into account the fundamental interests of the Palestinian people bearing in mind first of all the need to implement the U.N Security Council decision on creation of an independent sovereign Palestinian state one of our writers uh Aaron Erickson says says Putin, as usual, is the only adult in the room. So true. And he, well, he understands the history. He knows, as most people in the world kind of do, the U.S. relationship with Israel. You know, in America, sometimes we say, oh, Israel's the dog wagging the tail or the tail wagging the dog. But in Israel, they think it the same way that we are telling them what to do.

We're pushing them into this or that. And so by picking a side, which we have chosen a side, just like he said, we've approached it as if we will mandate a solution. And I do think it's interesting to hear President Putin talk about self-determination and the rights of minorities. I like that. He appreciates that. And this is certainly an example right in our face. Has American foreign policy ever substantially or materially taken into account the rights of the Palestinian people in the modern era and the post-47 era? No, I don't see that that they have. And I know even the way we're taught about the Palestinians, first off, there's a substantial minority of Christian Palestinians. I learned that when I was like 50 years old. So that's not communicated

widely. There's a sense that they are just people, they very much fit into the stereotype that we're hearing, this very negative, unworthy of policy. That is a matter of American policy. We pick sides, we choose winners, and we make the rules, and we make many, many mistakes and errors when we do that. Last subject, how will this conflagration affect the United States' involvement with or interest in the Ukraine war? Well, the interest in the Ukraine war has already dropped. And we just saw the Germans step up with a $1.1 billion in aid to kind of carry the Ukraine war through the winter. I think the big thing will be looking at it in terms of all the weapons that leaked out, all the soldiers and mercenaries and other people who caused problems throughout the world,

connecting from the Ukrainian war where we've been funding them and then finding some of those weapons, which it looks like we may, in the hands of Ham Hamas being used against our ally, which is exactly what we've seen numerous times in the past when we've aided, we've picked a side and we've sent weapons in. So I think we'll learn more about that. I don't see Americans becoming re-interested in Ukraine at all. In fact, this is actually, I'm sure this is Zelensky's worst day and not because he's Jewish. I think it's his worst day because he realizes, you know, he's not going to have center stage and now he has to compete with our best ally for weaponry. Lieutenant Colonel Kwiatkowski, thank you again, as always, for your insight. Deeply appreciated by the many, many viewers and commenters and certainly by me.

We'll see you again next week. Thank you, Karen. All the best. Thank you. You too. Sure. More as we get it. Let me just make sure.

Bear with me that I have the schedule right here. Yes, Professor John Mearsheimer in just a few minutes at 3 o'clock Eastern and at 4 o'clock Eastern, Matt O. How did all this happen? How will it end? More as we get it. Judge Napolitano on Judging Freedom. I'm out.