Judging Freedom - Israel bigfoots Ukraine w/Tony Shaffer fmr DoD

Episode Date: October 12, 2023

Israel bigfoots Ukraine w/Tony Shaffer fmr DoDSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Wednesday, October 11, 2023. Lieutenant Colonel Tony Schaefer joins us now. Tony, always a pleasure. Thank you for joining us. What is the state of affairs vis-a-vis Israel and Gaza as we speak? So I think that both sides are feeling out the other. The folks in Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, I think, are trying to figure out what their options are, and they're pretty darn limited. Apparently, there's credible reports saying that some in Hamas are saying, hey, maybe it wasn't the best idea to grab these hostages, and they want them released. Others are saying they're in it to basically go down in a blaze of glory, which I think is the latter is going to prevail. As we speak, 300,000 reservists have been mobilized. You and I both

know, Judge, from our background, it takes time to prepare a military force for action. And even the best trained reservists are going to take some level of time to basically muster. They have to come together. They have to do some remedial training to get their mind right, so to speak. But I do believe as we speak, and this has been alluded to by several credible sources, the ground offensive by the Israeli army is very close. My forecast at the time we're talking about this, it's just after 11 o'clock Eastern Standard Time, U.S. time. I think by late Thursday, early Friday, our time, you're going to see the beginning of their offensive, the ground offensive by the Israelis into Gaza. The only thing that's holding it back right now, in my judgment, is what to do

about the hostages. And that includes Italian hostages, U.S. hostages, and obviously Israeli hostages, which are being held right now in the Gaza Strip. So. Can they conduct the ground operation without the reserves or do they need the reserves ready to go? Any standing military judge is going to have essentially, because they're expensive to maintain, what they basically believe they have to have for purposes of deterrence and immediate response. Anything. So Gaza itself is about the size of the physical footprint is about the size of Manhattan plus the Bronx. It's about 110 square miles of terrain and densely populated, two million people in that space. And so what's going to happen is you have to have three things at play. First off, effective offensive operational capability. That is to say, you're going to have to go in and take territory. Secondly, as you go through, you have to hold it.

That requires another group of folks to do. And third, you're going to have to process those 2 million people as you take back terrain because there's a siege. They've shut off water. They've shut off power. They're going into conditions that are going to be horrific. I mean, the people who are innocent, let me state this very clearly because I have no sympathy for Hamas, the people who are innocent within that space are going to suffer tragically because of the actions of Hamas. I'm not justifying Hamas's action. I'm saying it's just a statement of observable fact. So the Israelis believe in collective punishment. They do. And they know that many thousands, maybe even a million civilians who have nothing to do with this will suffer because of their invasion.

And I'm not disputing that. I'm not showing sympathy. I'm just saying that the third category of people in the army are going to have to be those who basically process those civilians and the detainees and the terrorists, because they're going to capture a lot of folks and they got to rescue folks. So that's what's going on. How did this happen without Mossad, MI6, CIA, any of the vaunted world intelligence agencies knowing about it or reporting on it to appropriate superiors ahead of time? So I got to be careful because I don't know all the facts. My team is kind of looking at this. We've had discussions. The intelligence failure, Judge, I think happened because of three things. First, I think there's rumor, I haven't got it confirmed yet, that the Egyptians, Egyptian intelligence

gave them warning and it was ignored. So I don't know that for a fact, I'm speculating. Did you say it was ignored? Apparently, it was ignored. Basically, the Egyptians were saying, hey, something's about to happen. So again, that's completely, that's rumor. Take it as rumor. I don't know. I have not verified that. Secondly, one of the things that they, the Israelis were looking at is something we call indications and warning. Indications and warning is something we do very well. We'd like to believe so. We look at indicators, intelligence indicators, something's about to happen. We do this in South Korea regarding North Korea. We look at this regarding the Chinese.

We have big boards that track individual events. We believe after a certain propensity of evidence that there may be something about to happen. The Israelis did a very similar thing regarding tracking the activities of Hamas and other terrorist organizations, looking for the predominance of evidence, warnings that something's about to happen. What I believe happened, Judge, is that Hamas and the Iranians, because I think there was nation state support, if not sponsorship, figured out what those individual elements, what we call observables were. They figured out what they were and they started controlling the intelligence mechanism, speeding information into it. We did this during World War II. An operation called Operation Bodyguard was the deception campaign that resulted in Adolf Hitler and the Germans not knowing we were going to invade on

the 6th of June at Normandy. They were believing Passe de Calais was going to be looked at. And that was what we wanted to do. We had the Ghost Army, General Patton's First Army. But, Tony, forgive me for interrupting. None of this explains why Mossad didn't know about it. Mossad has people on the ground. It listening posts that have boats in the ocean. I'm getting to that.

I'm getting to that. Okay. One of the operations within Bodyguard was called Garbo. Garbo was literally the doubling of a German spy. And there was multiple networks of German spies. What they did judge, the British and Americans, we figured out all the different spies the Germans had and we turned them. We gave them a choice. You work for us or you die. That's it. So that's what I'm saying is that I think Hamas and the Iranians were able to figure out who those assets of the intelligence service were.

Now, once those are compromised, you basically control that mechanism. So I think Mossad's agent nets were compromised. That's why they didn't see them. Because basically over time, the Palestinians, Hamas, were able to figure out who those spies were. There's a number of ways to do it. So they were double. So they were feeding, they, the Hamas, and Iran were feeding false information to Hamas. I mean, to Mossad.

What about what your buddies used to call signals intelligence? What about surveillance and AI? Same thing. You can find ways to spoof, deny, or degrade that very thing. We did it. I'm just telling you, that's what my job used to be, Judge. We used to be able to put together things which deceived the adversary of what we're actually doing. This is not new. This is the art of war. But what I'm saying is, yes, someone sat down on the Iranian and Hamas side and mapped everything out. This is how we did Gulf 91, Judge. We actually identified all the different mechanisms that Saddam Hussein was listening to or paying attention to, to include CNN. I could tell you stories about how we manipulated CNN and presided this completely bogus front that Saddam Hussein bought off on and was completely deceived. So I believe we're going

to come to find a very similar campaign was orchestrated by Iran and Hamas, where basically they mapped and understood how the Israelis were taking in information and basically controlled all those mechanisms to deceive them of what their actual intent was. Okay, now why are you saying Iran and Hamas? Because there is speculation or is there evidence that Iran was involved? I have not seen any direct evidence. With that said, I don't believe for a minute that Hamas under its own accord could move 5,000 missiles. Remember, these missiles they were firing the first day are not small.

They're not like something you put in your pocket. The paragliders, the amount of logistical and other intelligence support was enormous. And you just point out regarding the intelligence issues we're talking about, there had to be some level of sophisticated either coaching or guidance to understand all of those intelligence systems to the level of detail necessary to defeat them. I don't believe Hamas as a small terrorist organization could do all of these things on its own. Here's President Biden yesterday saying what he, I'm sure, honestly believes, but politically needed to say. We now know that American citizens are among those being held by Hamas.

I've directed my team to share intelligence and deploy additional experts from across the United States government to consult with and advise Israeli counterparts on hostage recovery efforts? Are American special ops ordered to go on the ground to extract American and Israeli hostages? So I don't know specifics, but I know how it's normally done. So what would happen in this case? We have within the region a number of operating bases that are special operations command. We always have a presence there, Judge. And I suspect the presence in this case was probably in Egypt.

I think those folks are now staged either on the border of Egypt next to Israel or already in Israel. The U.S. will not act without specific and clear guidance from Israel. That is to say, the Israelis will be in the lead. The Israelis may ask or may not ask for U.S. support, but it's very clear that U.S. special operations forces are always prepared, despite whatever political knucklehead is in the White House. U.S. Special Operations Forces are always prepared, despite whatever political knucklehead is in the White House. U.S. Special Forces are always leaning forward. We have operational plans to deal with this under almost every scenario. So they're always there. They're always prepared to act as an option. So the option right now, I think, is do the United States figure out how to go in by itself or

augment the Israelis? But I can tell you right now that both Israeli special forces and U.S. special forces are trying to figure out where the hostages are. There's a clock ticking for any number of reasons regarding Hamas either deciding to kill them or the ground campaign kicking off. And that's what they're focused on right now. My forecast, again, I'm not involved, don't have direct information. I think Hamas has probably stuck all these hostages in about 12 locations, some underground. They want to have enough of them together to be able to kill them if necessary all at once, but not so dispersed, not one per building or something like that. They've kind of got a combination of things going on. And what the US Special Forces,

what the Israelis are trying to track down is where these clusters are at. They're going to try to get as many of these folks as quickly as they can once the word is given. I think you're going to see things start overnight regarding special operations forces going in. We're going to put up some live screens of Hamas and Israel. So the lower right, this is live now, is Israel. The top left, the top right, and the lower left are Gaza. You'll see explosions there in Gaza periodically. It's about 6.20 p.m. local time in Israel as we are speaking and showing these live cameras. What about the U.S. Navy, Tony? What purpose does it serve having a battle fleet in the eastern Mediterranean? Are they going to shell Gaza, or is this just a landing place for American troops, this aircraft? No, I don't. I've got to be honest. We're not going to see

American troops deployed into this region. We're don't I gotta be honest we're not gonna see American troops deployed in into this region we're not I I can tell you that other than special forces which you said are there and ready so there's a second there's a second power there's a second carrier battle group coming up to be in the region in the Red Sea there's going to be two carrier battle groups judge those are primarily there to deter outside entities from jumping in. That is to say that they're there to be prepared to do something against Hezbollah. If Hezbollah acts in areas which the United States feels are of interest or involved, or the Iranians. Right now, there's been almost a strange pause regarding Hezbollah. There was a lot of folks who thought Hezbollah, being a basic client of the Iranians, would jump in and do something in the northern part of Israel.

Let me just stop you for a second. The upper right-hand camera, which we don't control, zooms in when it sees smoke plumes. So it's showing a substantial smoke plume there somewhere in Gaza. That's the upper right-hand counter, which on its own, or whoever's controlling it over there, just zoomed in. I'm sorry, Tony, can you please continue where you are? What will the Navy do? So the carrier battle groups are therefore larger outside of Israel issues. I mean, will there be special operations support from those? Absolutely. There'll be all sorts of support. But the primary use of large muscle movement of power like that is to deter other outside entities, again, such as Hezbollah and Iran from acting to support anything regarding Hamas and

their efforts. The initial entry into Israel by Hamas resulted in a lot of needless deaths of innocents. Right. Why weren't the Israelis armed? Why didn't they have handguns or rifles to defend themselves? I know they don't have a Second Amendment in Israel, but they certainly have a natural right to self-defense, as all humans do. Yeah, the Israeli government has made it very, very difficult. You've got to be able to speak Hebrew. I mean, there's like a laundry list of things you must

go through to be able to be legally armed. It's insane. And so only 2% of the civilian population at any given time has weapons. And that showed yesterday or Sunday in this attack. And by the way, the kibbutzes, these small towns, they're organized around, I'm just going to say it, Soviet Union communistic concepts of collectivism. And I'm not criticizing that. If they want to live in peace and have communes, God bless them. But they are all unarmed. They're clearly vulnerable. And Hamas knew that. So Hamas- Are there police? Is there anybody with weapons there? No, there weren't. 25 communities were essentially unarmed bastions of peaceniks. And that's fine. I'm not being critical of people who want to be left alone. But the problem is,

they were essentially sheep waiting for the slaughter of Hamas to come get them. I think there was only one of those communities, Judge, which survived. And it was because one guy had a gun. One guy with a gun who was effective in actually helping organize and protect those from the terrorists survived. That's it. So I've argued in multiple interviews I've done in U.S. media, and I've mentioned this on Australian TV too, to me, this is the ultimate test of why we need to have a Second Amendment, the God-given right of self-defense. The Israelis, for the most part, made it very difficult for unarmed civilians, any civilian to be armed because you're supposed to have military status

or be in some special status that's approved by them. And again, I suggest people go out and Google this. There's a laundry list of things that you must prove that you are worthy of having a weapon, while here in the United States, it is our right to be armed. And I think this is a determinant factor of why Hamas was so successful so rapidly. And the concert, this peaceful concert where over 200 people were slaughtered again, there is virtually no guards there available to protect them. And that is another reason that was a tragedy. The laws in Israel on personal carrying and ownership of handguns were remarkably similar to those in New Jersey. Yes.

Until the Supreme Court's two opinions that the right to keep and bear arms is a personal right and the right to carry arms must be interpreted as it was understood at the time that the Second Amendment was adopted. But that's only a year and a half ago. Two years ago in New Jersey, you had to go through all of these proofs, even I as a former judge. The only exception to this is former police who didn't have to go through it, but everybody else would have to go through it. Now, it's far more rational and consistent with the Supreme Court's ruling. Well, Judge, but my franchise does not exist in your state. I'm just saying. I don't understand why my first member rights here in North Carolina, I can literally have

a weapon available, open carry. But the moment I leave, I can't go into D.C., I can't go into New Jersey, I can't go into New York without me becoming a potential felon, which is insane. Okay, so right after 9-11, I don't want to get too deep into the Second Amendment because I want to segue into Ukraine in a minute. Right after 9-11, Congress enacted a statute that allowed police officers, active duty and retired, to carry weapons in all 51 jurisdictions, the 50 states and the District of Columbia. There were efforts to amend it at the time to allow civilians, which would have allowed you with your carry permit where you are to carry everywhere.

But the administration of George W. Bush decided that was a bridge too far. So that's what we're stuck with. I want to segue into Ukraine because I have a couple of views on this. One, I think that Israel goes to the head of the line now. I'm not just talking about the media. I'm talking about aid from the federal government. Right. And two, I think this is very bad for Ukraine because the weapons or the ammunition that they need, a lot of it

is, I think, going to be held up. But before we get there, here is President Putin, a very rational, calm President Putin giving his analysis of U.S. government failures in the Middle East. Unfortunately, we can see a sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. I think that many will agree with me that this is a clear example of the failure of the policy of the United States in the Middle East, which tried to monopolise the resolution of the conflict, but unfortunately wasn't concerned with finding compromises acceptable to both sides. On the contrary, it promoted its own ideas about how this should be done, put pressure on both sides,

first on one side, then on the other, every time without taking into account the fundamental interests of the Palestinian people, bearing in mind, first of all, the need to implement the UN Security Council decision on creation of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state. Agree or disagree, Tony? No, unfortunately, he's correct. He's completely correct. Yes.

He's correct about interests, and plus, what he didn't say, which I will add to that is the disputes, disputes that go back to before the Ottoman empire fell. I mean, it's ironic that someone who's our adversary, and he is our adversary at this point, is so steely eyed and clear-minded about what's going on. And let me go through this a little bit to expand on this. So Jake Sullivan recently, I think it was, you ought to put it on your show. It's great. Jake Sullivan says, oh, everything is quiet in the Middle East because of our policies. You know, like, yeah, right. And I think he said that last week. Yeah. And he said, he said that they were going for a quote unquote integrated Middle East. Well, that proves what Putin says to be true.

The integration that they seek, that is the Biden Well, that proves what Putin says to be true. The integration that they seek, that is the Biden administration, means basically you promote and project what you want, that your form of integrated. And their integration simply added fuel to the fire of all these disputes and disagreements that go back generations. They wanted to slack over it and say everything is fine. And that's just not true. And by the way, this is not only the Biden folks. Jared Kushner did this as part of the initial issues of the Abraham Accords. Kushner was trying to convince the Egyptians to give up land.

It's like, no, it's not going to work. I spent a day with the Egyptians being yelled at over it. Let's get back to Ukraine. You have recently written that Russia is about to go on the offensive. What do you mean by that? Well, look, I think there's three issues that are obvious. Ukraine is lost. I hate to be this blunt because I'm going to get

in trouble, but the offensive didn't work. It wasn't going to work. And let me just point this obvious fact out. The same knuckleheads who've messed up the Middle East, Jake Sullivan Company, were the ones running the war in Ukraine. So the end results are kind of inevitable, if you ask me. But the offensive hasn't worked. It's not going to work the initiative is going to return to the Russians because they also activated great numbers of military personnel. They're now upwards of near a million troops on the battlefield ready to act. It's simply a numbers game, Judge. I'm not here. I'm not advocating for the Russians. I'm saying it's inevitability. And second, third, my third point then, if you got all these troops, the Ukrainians have lost, inevitably, you're going to have the

option of returning to the offensive. And I think that's where we're at. We're at the point where you're going to start seeing the Russians move slowly and meticulously forward to start securing more of what I would call centers of gravity, population centers within the Ukrainian sphere that they want. And I think it's going to happen within the next two weeks. Tony Schaefer, thank you, my friend. No matter what we talk about, you're helping us to understand it. And it is deeply and profoundly appreciated by all of those watching and certainly by me. I do my best. Thanks, Judge. Thank you, Tony. Always a pleasure. More as we get it, Scott Ritter at 3.30 Eastern today,

and then our old friend, Congressman Andy Biggs, the intellectual guru of the ragtag gang of Republicans that threw out Kevin McCarthy will be here at 4.30. And let me thank you for the subscriptions. We're up to 207, 208,000. We will hit a quarter of a million by Christmastime. Scott Ritter at 3.30 this afternoon. Colonel Schaefer, thank you so much. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.