Judging Freedom - Kevork Almassian: How Dangerous Is Syria Today?

Episode Date: January 7, 2025

Kevork Almassian: How Dangerous Is Syria Today?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Tuesday, January 7th, 2025. Our guest today is Kivork Almacian, the Syrian journalist who has provided us with so much wonderful information since the fall of the Assad government. Kivork, it's a pleasure, my dear friend. Welcome here. Happy New Year to you. Who or what is principally responsible for the fall of the Assad government? First of all, thank you very much for having me. I wish you and your respected audience a happy and peaceful year.

I'm not very optimistic, but let's hope for the best. There are multiple factors why the Assad government fell. To begin with, I truly believe that funneling tens of billions of dollars, we're talking about tens of billions of dollars. We're talking about tens of billions of dollars worth of weapons of ammunition being pumped or dumped into the Syrian let's say market and most of which went into the hands of very radical groups and they were very motivated to fight against the government because they saw the government as a secular infidel regime which means they have to remove

it for religious purposes. So this was like a holy war initiated by these radical groups. And this was stated by a secret document by the Defense Intelligence Agency of the US in 2012, that the driving force behind the insurgency were the Al-Qaeda and the Muslim border groups. So this is number one. The second thing were the interference of the, let's say, regional and international intelligence apparatuses into the country to destabilize the country and facilitate the regime change. The third, I would argue, also the sanctions.

The sanctions were so draconian, Judge, that if you want to buy a medical equipment from Malaysia, from Indonesia, from China, from anywhere around the world, a medical equipment, you cannot pay for it. And if you want to bring it from the black market, if the United States detects that Syria has bought any equipment from outside, any technological equipment from outside from a third country company, they would sanction that third country company. So the country has been devastated on all levels, including the great corruption. And when I say great in a negative connotation, because when you sanction the country, it was already widespread corruption in Syria. But when you sanction the economy of the country,

and the country basically becomes malfunctional, and it doesn't function well, then you will see the rise of parallel economies. And who is going to be in charge of parallel economies are the warlords, cronies, and people who have invested interest in keeping the country's economy dysfunctional. So we had this Syrian economy has been paralyzed. And at the same time, we have seen the rise of corrupted people who have had their grip over the economy. And all these things have led, in my opinion, into the demoralization of the Syrian people, and they no longer wanted to continue the fight

after 14 years of fighting against this throw-in-back insurgency. Therefore, Assad has fled the country. I think those are the main factors. Who or what led the American State Department to put a $10 million bounty on Al Jolani's head and to denominate his group as a terrorist organization? And I believe the British did the same. Actually, the State Department, they have been following Jolani for a long time. He has been in Iraq and he was responsible for sending car bombs into civilian neighborhoods. I mean, even the head of Al-Qaeda back then in Afghanistan, he rejected the notion of Jolani to send car bombs into civilian

neighborhoods. He was more radical than his command center, basically, in Afghanistan. So he was imprisoned in Iraq and later freed miraculously. And he formed the al-Qaeda offshoot in Syria. So everybody in the intelligence community knew who Al-Jolani is. And it was very controversial to keep him off the terrorist list. So they put him on the terrorist list, but at the same time, they sent weapons to what is called the Free Syrian Army. So what is the Free Syrian Army? The Free Syrian Army are, let's say, less radical militants among the anti-Assad groups in the country, but they were fighting shoulder to shoulder with the Al-Qaeda. So once you give all these weapons,

the Toyota tracks, the technologies, and the ammunition to the Free Syrian Army, the Free Syrian Army either sold these weapons to al-Nusra Front or Al-Qaeda, or Al-Qaeda was because more powerful, they have taken over these weapons. So during this time, when the regime change war was over in 2017, in the military sense, Trump ended it and said, why are we wasting $1 billion over arming these jihadists in Syria? No, we impose sanctions on the country. We devastate the economy and we can demoralize the people and do regime change with minimum budget. And this was successful at the end of the day. But during this time, because Jolani's army was the strongest group on the ground against Assad,

they didn't want to keep him on the terrorist list. So they started to rebrand him, rebranding him from the leader of Al-Qaeda into another group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS. And during this time, the first interview that Jolani gave to an American press, I think this was to PBS, and he started wearing a suit and shaving his beard a little bit and saying that he's becoming moderate. And this was only a phase in his life that he used to send car bombs and decapitate people and kill people for belonging to a certain religion. But now he has changed, right? He has changed. But nowadays, I want to give an example, for example, Judge, for your respected audience to know. The Minister of Justice of Syria now under HDS, the Minister of Justice of Jolani has been an Islamic judge in Idlib, where Jolani used to control in the past. And this person has been documented in two videos

overseeing the execution of two women in the streets in Idlib, killing them with guns over their heads. And he was there in the video for adultery. So accusing someone of an adultery, just an accusation, it could get you killed under Jolani's regime. And now this person is the minister of

justice and the head of the intelligence of Jolani now, he was the person who used to bring messages between al-Baghdadi of ISIS and al-Jolani because they didn't use these technological means. So they had people, messengers coming and between these two persons of ISIS and al-Qaeda. And this person was the messenger between them, and he's now the head of the Syrian intelligence. So Syria has gone from bad to worse, notwithstanding what the American press would have you believe. If the minister of justice is on tape presiding over an execution execution for an allegation of adultery definitely definitely i think i think um i reported that syria for example in 2010

judge just one year before the war it was considered one of the safest countries in the region, and it had over 8.5 million tourists per year in Syria, with the GDP reached to $60 billion. So we're speaking about a functioning economy, very safe place. Yes, there were limitations for political freedoms, but I would argue that stability comes before democracy. And without stability, you cannot establish a democratic system in any country. So we have to prioritize stability in this case. Now, because Jolani's rule is very convenient for the US, Germany, the UK, they have invested in him a lot.

And they wanted for Assad to be gone for geopolitical reasons, not because of the human rights record in Syria. If it was about the human rights record, Jolani's record is way worse. What prompted then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to issue the waiver to allow American diplomats and intelligence personnel to provide aid to HTS and to interact with Jolani, even though HTS was a terrorist organization and Jalani has a bounty on his head. Yeah, he was the most powerful military wing in Syria capable of challenging the Assad government. It wasn't a situation where you can

pick and choose among different groups and say, no, I don't want to support HDS. I will support other groups. No, the vast majority of the militants who joined the anti-Assad camp were radical Islamists, and they wanted to establish an Islamic state. So it wasn't an ideal situation where one side is a revolutionary, but they supported the Islamists. No, the people who wanted to carry and continue the fighting were the Islamists, and they were motivated by religious texts and verses. And Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been giving lots of support to radical imams, giving basically fatwas after fatwas to multinational jihadists coming from all around the world to join the fight against Assad. I would like to give an example. There was a famous imam in Qatar called Sheikh Al-Qaradawi, and he issued a fatwa on Al-Jazeera, the Qatari front of TV, saying basically that anyone who

worked for the Assad government, civilian or military, so if you work in a public sector in Syria, or you are a soldier in the Assad government, it is permissible to kill this person. And tens of thousands of people perished because of this fatwa issued on the Qatari-funded Al Jazeera. So all these things, in my opinion, we have to take it into consideration, including why they are supporting HDS? Why would Mike Pompeo or before him Hillary Clinton or now Antony Blinken support this type of insurgency or support this type of insurgency in Syria to break the axis of resistance? This is what is called the axis between Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine. They wanted to break Syria as the strategic depth of the axis of resistance. This is one. Two, they wanted to extend the gas pipelines from Qatar to Turkey,

and Turkey would distribute these gas pipelines or this gas to Europe. So in the future, let's suppose in 50 years from now, the Russians and the Europeans would reconcile again. Now that Qatar can extend these gas pipelines to Europe, Europe would not need the Russian gas any longer. So they wanted for Qatar to extend these gas pipelines. And that's why Qatar and Turkey were the most enthusiastic about removing Assad in the past 12 years, I would argue. Here's a clip from December 29th of Al Jilani. There's an English translation, as you'll hear, after the West had, of course, persuaded

him to change his appearance. Cut number seven, Chris. Russia is an important country and is considered the second most powerful country in the world. And there are deep strategic interests between Syria and Russia. There are deep strategic interests between Syria and Russia. Syrian weapons are all Russian. Many of the power plants are Russian with Russian expertise, and there are great cultural ties between Syria and Russia.

We do not want Russia to exit Syria, as some would like. Run number eight as well Chris Syria cannot continue without relations with a large regional country like Iran but they must be based on diplomatic relations respect for the sovereignty of the two countries non-interference in internal Affairs and only relations that are compatible with the interests of the two countries without interfering in the matters of sectarian hatreds. We hope that the new American administration will not follow in the same approach as the previous administration in continuing these sanctions

and will lift them without entering into negotiations or bargaining. What is your take on this new Al-Jalani? Is he believable? Is he a tool of the West? Or is he duping the West? I think he's the tool of Turkey. HDS is mostly a construct of the Turkish intelligence. And they had the geographical, let's say,

connectivity with Turkey for a long time because Idlib is on the borders with Turkey and they had an open, let's say, connectivity with Turkey for a long time because Idlib is on the borders with Turkey and they had an open border between Turkey and Syria, receiving different types of weapons and ammunition. However, I would also argue that because Turkey is a NATO country, I don't think that the Americans had no clue what the Turks are doing there. That the US has a big military base in Incirlik and they were overseeing

the influx of these weapons and ammunition and aid to Jolani. The former special envoy of the US, James Jeffrey, to Syria, he famously said, Al-Jolani's group has been an asset for the US strategy in Syria, because they were, like, I don't want to even call them realistic, but this is what real politic is about. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. This is how they treated with Jolani. But now I think the Americans will exert some pressure on Jolani because they want him to stay in line and not to go rogue completely, especially on the neighboring countries. Because HDS is tens of different military groups

and there are so many rogue elements in HDS committing ethnic cleansing against the minorities, for example, in Homs and in Latakia. And they are persecuting women publicly, documented on video. So the Americans cannot really tolerate this to be in public. So they will exert pressure on Jolani in two aspects. One, they want him to stay passive with Israel and in the next few years to normalize ties with Israel. I would argue that in three to five years, you will see Israeli flag flying over Damascus because under Assad, Assad didn't recognize the legitimacy of the political entity of Israel.

But we will see this sooner or later in Syria. Secondly, that the Qataris and the Turks would have their strategic interests met in the country, including the gas pipelines. And that is why, if you notice what Jolani said about Russia, that he doesn't mind that the Russians stay in the country. Because this was an international deal struck between Turkey, Russia, and the United States. And after this deal, Assad fled the country. Can you add Israel to that group? Definitely, definitely, definitely. I would argue that the Israelis had a big interest in removing Assad from power because two weeks or three weeks before Assad

fell, the Jordanian foreign minister was in Damascus delivering basically an American-Israeli message to Assad and asking him that there is going to be a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon with Hezbollah. And once the ceasefire agreement is reached, we expect from you to siege Hezbollah, which means you have to cut the supply chains of Hezbollah from Syria. And Assad rejected it. And in a matter of few days, the regime change restarted, reignited in the country. Just a few hours after Netanyahu gave a public speech and said that Assad is playing with fire. So Israel invested a lot, and also with HDS, for your respected audience. I mean,

the Wall Street Journal, the UN peacekeeping forces, the Israeli press, the Israeli officials, they all acknowledged that they have given weapons, money, training, and also medical treatment to Jolani's group when they used to occupy the borders between Syria and the government. Even though this is a felony under American law and under British law. Yes. And the former head of Mossad on Al Jazeera, he was with Mahdi Hassan. He was challenged by Mahdi Hassan about this case. And he said, you're giving medical treatment to Al Qaeda affiliated group. They attacked your number one ally in the United

States. And he said, but they never attacked us. According to my memory, he said, the Al-Qaeda never attacked us. And we're dealing them on a tactical level, on a humanitarian level. And then Mahdi Hassan said, okay, what if a Hezbollah militant was injured? Would you take him into Israel and treat him? He says, no, we don't treat Hezbollah militants because they have conducted acts of hostilities against Israel, unlike Al-Qaeda. So the question here is, I'm not saying I'm not calling for attacks on Israel. I'm just asking a simple question. Why Al-Qaeda and ISIS never attacked Israel in this case. And one time there was a minor clash between the IDF and ISIS on the borders. The ISIS issued an apology for Israel in this case.

So these are all good questions we have to ask. I was watching a video, an interview for Professor Mikhail Hudson, and he says basically al-Qaeda is a contract army for the United States in the region. And after all these developments from Afghanistan to Syria to Libya, it gives the impression that, I'm not saying that they have the control, the U.S. can control all Al-Qaeda elements, but definitely on the top level of the hierarchy,

there is some sort of intelligence communication in order to direct these militants against the enemies of the United States. It doesn't make sense that when the Palestinians have been slaughtered en masse in Gaza, none of these groups claimed that they want to try to save the Palestinians in Gaza. And I'm not calling for them to save

because they are really, they are not any better than the people who are committing genocide in Gaza. But I'm asking. Who or what governs what a month ago was the sovereign territory of Syria? How has it been divided? Now the Syrian, before Assad is gone or after? After Assad is gone.

Today, who governs the various geographical areas that were once governed by Assad? So on the eastern shore of the Euphrates, the Americans and the Kurdish militias, the SDF, Syrian Democratic Forces, this is one- third of the country anyways. Now, between Aleppo to Idlib to Homs to Damascus, it's mostly HDS under Turkish intelligence. The Russians have a presence in Latakia and in Tartus in the coastal side of Syria, but they don't have any strong military presence in order to keep the posture of the region or protect the minorities there, because they are being now, they are slaughtered by HDS, basically. And in the south, we have a government called Aswada. Aswada is mostly populated by the Druze, and they're asking for an autonomy now. I think what is going to happen to Syria is they will...

Before you predict the future, how much of Syria has been taken by the Israelis? Actually, larger than the Gaza Strip. So they already captured the Golan Heights in 1967, and now the territories they occupied is way larger than the entire Gaza Strip enclave, basically. Do they view themselves as a provisional government, or do they view these conquered territories as part of Israel? It's part of Israel. So they consider this part of Israel forever, and they say they have occupied the highest hill in Syria, and now they have the dominance, the aerial dominance and the technological dominance, basically, because when they install their satellites, then they will oversee entire region in Damascus and also in Lebanon itself.

So the Israelis have the upper hand there, and they already posted that Mount Hermon is now part of Israel, and they have annexed it. And I don't think that the Syrian side is capable of pushing them back or has the will, and I'm talking about HDS in this case, because they're not trying to push the Israelis away. They're 20 kilometers away from Damascus now. Where is this going in the next five years? I think the first phase is going to be federalization of Syria.

So I'm not against a federal state, a federal system. But for using federalism to unite between the already divided countries in the region, because the region is already divided since 100 years by Sykes and Pico. So if Iraq and Syria want to create a federal system of Lebanon or Jordan or Palestine to unify and create an economic integration between these countries, that's amazing. But if you want to divide what was already divided, which means Syria will be divided into four to five different mini states, federal states, then this is only going to create more conditions for more internal inner conflict between these groups, because they will be ethno-states, like ethno-religious states, just like in Israel, right?

And they will start fighting against each other. And this will create the conditions for the US and Israel to present themselves as the savior of minorities, especially the Druze and the Kurds. I think this is where the country is headed to, a federalism at the beginning and then the balkanization of the country. And I hope I am wrong, Judge, and I will definitely be happy that I would be wrong about this case because I would like to see one unified country.

I'm Syrian at the end of the day. But am I hopeful? Am I optimistic? No. What about Al-Jolani? What becomes of him? Al-Jolani said that he's not going to do elections for the next four years. So he's going to stay another four years. He said that they need three years to redraft the constitution for Syria.

Although he changed the curriculum in a matter of three days in the country. And if you want to know, he is changing the entire… When you say curriculum, you mean in the schools? Schools, yes. He removed, for example, in the science textbooks, the theory of evolution and that our brains were developed in the past, and he only insists on the religious texts that we were created as Adam and Eve. There is no evolution at all.

And he's changing, for example, the concept of martyrdom from someone who dies for the sake of his country to someone who died for the sake of God. And also in the textbooks now, the Jews and the Christians are the people whom God is angry at, according to the new curriculum of Syria. So he's Islamizing basically the Syrian education system, something that I mentioned at our first conversation, that he will try to have his grip over the education, over the press, over the religious affairs, so he has to control the minds

and the hearts of the people. And then if they revolt against him, he has the weapons. And in the next stage, he will redraft the constitution in the next three years. So three years is going to be the de facto ruler. And in the fourth year, he says he will hold elections. Will he participate in his elections? I think it depends on the conditions in the country. But in four years, Syria has moved from one of the safest countries in the world into a jungle, lawless jungle. So what could you expect in four years? Is it safe for Christians in Syria?

No, not at all. I mean, I'm reading daily reports from Syria, especially in Homs and in Latakia, killings against Christians and against the Alawites, especially against the Alawites. I've seen countless videos, Judge, of summary executions, humiliations. They are capturing men en masse in some town, and they are capturing this on video, basically. They're either executing them or saying that you have to howl like a dog or we will kill you. So they're humiliating the people like that.

We've seen lots of robberies. And because the Christians are trying to defend themselves and they're getting killed in the process. One of the Christians were decapitated last week in the Valley of the Christians in Homs. So there's so many examples that are documented on video that I'm already posting on my ex account. And those are only the documented ones.

So imagine the ones that we couldn't document. on video that I'm already posting on my ex account. And those are only the documented ones. So imagine the ones that we couldn't document. So if somebody comes and says that HGS has reformed itself, yeah, probably they have started wearing some suit and ties, et cetera, to give the impression. But on the ground, what their militants are doing is basically ethnically cleansing the Christians and the Allah rights from the country. And the next step you will see these NGOs come and say for the minorities, we opened for you the resettlement programs, refugee status, et cetera. How many Christians left in the country, Judge? They were 10% of the people. They're probably 2% or something now of the country.

So nothing left. Got it. Got it. Good work. Thank you. Not a happy story. But as you said at the outset, maybe something good will come of this. Much appreciated, my dear friend. I hope we can have you back again soon. Thank you so much, Judge. Of course, of course. Coming up later today, Matt Ho at two o'clock, Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski at three, and of course, the always worth waiting for Colonel Douglas McGregor at four. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thank you.