Judging Freedom - Kevork Almassian: International Implications of Assad’s Fall

Episode Date: January 23, 2025

Kevork Almassian: International Implications of Assad’s FallSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, January 23rd, 2025. Kivork Amasian joins us now. Kivork, a pleasure, my dear friend. Of course, I want to talk but you have sources there. What is life like now in Syria, in the countryside, and in Damascus? So most of the journalists and the officials, NGOs, are going to Damascus. Damascus, the capital, and Aleppo are relatively stable. Not much happening there in terms of the insecurities. However, in more rural areas or in governorates that are far away from Damascus and from Aleppo, especially in the cities of Homs, Hama and Latakia, there are active sectarian violence against two major ethnic and religious groups, one of which are the Alawites and the second are the Christians. Now, if I want to

categorize who is more persecuted by the HDS regime, I would say the Alawites are coming at the first level of the persecution and the second are the Christians. For the Christians, they are not committing summary executions against them, but against the Alawites, they are accusing them of being a regime collaborator, which means that they used to work for the government in the past, and they say, quote, they are liquidating them. And not coincidentally, most of these victims belong to the Alawites and the Shiites, and mostly are men, because they say they used to serve in the military. But we have to remember that around 300,000 soldiers used to serve in the military, but we have to remember that around 300,000 soldiers used to serve in the Syrian military, and this was a military service, which means every man who is not single has to go to the military, which means most men served in the Syrian military. If everyone is a regime collaborator, that means HDS, what is it going to do? Liquidate 300,000 Syrians in the process of

establishing a so-called democratic state. I think we have to shed light on this because most of the mainstream journalists are only going to Damascus and saying life is so beautiful and see the breezes of the freedom here and they're trying to rebrand HDS but none of them has gone 100 kilometers or 200 kilometers far away from Damascus to see in other places what is happening. These liquidations, what are they? Summary public executions by firing squad? Actually, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is led by Rami Abdelrahman,

he is a longtime anti-Assad figure. He is reporting for his organization that these HDS death squads are killing the men in Homs and Hama by of which happened in the peripheries of Damascus, where they killed and then slaughtered, basically, after killing him. They decapitate them, and they take videos, you know, they record it, and they publish it for the public. And the only backlash that the pro-HDS people are receiving, or they're saying that, please don't record the crimes. I mean, you're going to do what you want to do, but don't record it because this is creating problems for the HDS rule, especially that they want to persuade now the United States and Europe to lift the sanctions

because they say, yesterday, the foreign minister of the HDS led Syria was in Davos, and he talked with Tony Blair and during the conversation he said the sanctions under the Assad regime were meant to uh were for the sake of the Syrian people but these same sanctions he says now harm the Syrian people so they're trying to persuade the West to lift the sanctions so they have to give this um the face that the HDS has reformed and they are now a civil body and not a militant regressive Islamist body. The people that are doing the murdering in the streets, are they government agents or are they private individuals and the government is just looking the other way? Actually, they belong to HDS and HDS is a big umbrella of different militant groups, some of which are multinational. 30% of them are multinational, from Uyghur, from the Uzbekis and

Tajikis, and they are killing the people in the streets based on their religion and sect, because the only question they ask is, from which background are you coming from? They don't care about your politics, they don't care about your politics they're only asking about your uh religious and sectarian affiliation suppose you say i'm i'm roman catholic or i'm jewish what would they do basically they know the towns in homes in homes we have the christian valley uh they are overwhelmingly populated by the christians and they know that these towns are overwhelmingly populated by the Christians, and they know that these towns are overwhelmingly populated by the Christians. And accordingly, they set up checkpoints there.

They ask the people to hide the cross if somebody is wearing a cross, for example. So I'm being very honest with you. I haven't seen a large-scale sectarian killing against the Christians, but I have seen many against the Alawites. For the Christians, they are have seen many against the Alawites. For the Christians, they're politically persecuting them, but for the Alawites, they are presenting serious threat against them. And I think this is all calculated because now, again, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Turkey has taken active measures to annex the coastal line of Syria, and the Alawites live in the coastal line of Syria. I think Turkey will present itself as the protector of the Alawites. And also, let's remember that in the Turkish Hatay region, which is bordering the Syrian coastal line,

the majority of the Turks or the Turkish people who live there are from the Alevi background. They are like brothers to the Alawites in Syria. So I think Turkey will represent itself as the protector of the Alawites in Syria. But the main issue, main consideration behind this is the gas fields in the Mediterranean that they have discovered in front of the Syrian coast, in front of Lebanon, in front of Gaza. And we see all these wars happening in the region. One of the reasons for it is these gas pipelines in the Mediterranean. Are there Jews in Syria, and are they subject to repression by HTS? I think one of the main mistakes of the former Assad regime was to allow many of the Jewish families to migrate from Syria.

In the 90s, Bill Clinton and Hafez al-Assad, the former president, they have met multiple times because they pursued a peace process called the Madrid Conference. And they wanted to bring Syria to strike a peace treaty with Israel. And during these negotiations, one of the packages of this file was about the Jewish community in Syria. And Bill Clinton asked Hafez al-Assad to allow the remaining Jewish families to migrate to the United States and then resettle in Israel because their numbers were very low and they wanted to multiply and there were no reason for them to stay in Syria. And Assad said, no problem. There was no persecution against them. But if they want to leave as a goodwill gesture from our side to Israel, we would allow them to go. Now, mostly they have moved to Pennsylvania and I'm in touch with

Syrian Jewish families in the United States. And they returned in the past few years when Assad was still in power to reopen their cathedrals and they have some graveyards there. And I helped them personally to come back to Syria and put them in touch with people on the ground. But at the current moment, I'm in touch with one Jewish Syrian person in Damascus who asked me to delete a podcast conversation I had with him on my own channel, Syriana Analysis, because he says he feels threatened now by HDS because if they find my conversation with him, which he had the Syrian official flag

and I think he had also the picture of Bashar in the background. He feels like that has to be taken down because his security is in jeopardy. So I took down that conversation with him. Does he feel his security is in jeopardy, forgive me, because he's a correspondent with you or because he's Jewish? Because he's Jewish and he had political opinions about the war. Because in his perspective, he was one of the people who said that my patriotic duty compels me to stand by the Syrian army against this foreign-funded insurgency. And this conversation was held in English.

And he contacted me and he said, Kev, please take it down because I don't feel safe here in Damascus any longer. And if somebody watches that conversation between us, I could be in trouble. So I did that. I get it. But just one more thing, George. Similarly, I received a call from a bishop in Damascus. I also interviewed him in the past. This was five years ago in Damascus.

And he also asked me to take down the conversation with him from my YouTube channel for the same reason. Wow. Has the Israeli Hamas ceasefire affected events in Syria at all? No, I don't think the CISFAR agreement affects the events in Syria, but October 7 definitely did. Because October 7 brought different parties to participate in this conflict, especially Hezbollah, which led to the decapitation of the entire leadership. It also led to immense pressure on Syria because then the Americans and the Israelis asked Syria to block the borders between Lebanon and Syria and stop the supply chains for Hezbollah. And Syria said no. And a few days later, this operation started. I think October 7, the attack itself brought more, let's say, ramifications on the region, whether positive or negative.

We can discuss about that. But one of which was definitely the regime change in Syria. Were it not for October 7, I don't think this regime change would have been possible in this case, because Hezbollah had to withdraw also from Syria and go to helped the Assad government immensely in the past decade. But they had to go back to Lebanon as well. And the borders in Western Aleppo, where the first attack happened from HDS, was very exposed because this was the place where Hezbollah forces were stationed against HDS forces. Have other countries besides the US and the UK begun to recognize the Syrian government and al-Jolani as the head of that government? Oh, everyone.

Karim Khan was in Damascus and he met with Jolani. He shook hands with him, well knowing that Jolani himself, he was the emir of Idlib and he has established dungeons there for his opponents and his courts basically executed women who were accused of adultery and those were all captured on video. We have seen the Norwegian foreign minister meeting with Jolani and calling him his excellency. And this goes against all diplomatic norms, by the way, because Jolani is a militant rebel leader,

and he is the de facto leader of Syria. He's not elected by the Syrian people to be called his excellency. If the people elect him, then you can call him his excellency, or if somebody presents the Syrian interest, let's say, as an ambassador, but giving him legitimacy this way, it sends the wrong message, judge, to the people in the region. Because now put yourself in the shoes of a young Syrian person who is want to become involved in politics. Right. They are sending now a message to the Syrian youth that if you want to become relevant politically, then you should join a militant regressive party or a militant group like al-Nusra or HTS in order for you to be active in politics. They're sending all the wrong messages to the Syrian youth that radicalism is the way, that if you want to become a leader of a country, then you shouldn't be active in a peaceful

political manner, but rather to carry arms and go against the government. And this sends lots of bad signals to the region. And this could put an entire generation basically in front of the conviction that the only way for them to be relevant is to join such groups. And this will also bring more indoctrination to the youngsters in Syria from, let's say, radical indoctrination. And we will see a hub of radical hotspot, basically, in Syria, something that was unimaginable in the past. The Biden administration, now, of course, out of office, refused to remove the terrorist tag on HTS, at least the Biden State Department. Has there been any change since Donald Trump became president? Not yet, but this will be discussed among the congressmen, especially the Republicans in this

case. We have Joe Wilson, we have many other Republican congressmen who were very active in the regime change war and also the sanction regime, one of which is called the Caesar Act. And now they are discussing lifting some of the sanctions and giving the opportunity for at least the humanitarian organizations to operate in Syria freely and be able to make the transactions. Because remember, under Assad, even the humanitarian organizations were not allowed to receive outside money to operate in the country. Now they're only focusing on the humanitarian aspect because they expect from HDS to implement a few strategic steps first, one of which is, of course, with Israel to pacify when Damascus is pacified and Israel occupies the southern part of Syria and creates the buffer zone. And then they speak about the establishment of a federal system. Then, yes, the American administration will lift the sanctions when all these questions are resolved, including the destiny of the Kurds. But before

that, it's going to be difficult for the US to give up everything for Turkey, because Turkey is the biggest winner now of this conflict. And it has an invested interest to fight against a group called Syrian Democratic Forces. And the Syrian Democratic Forces are around 60,000 soldiers. And this is an American proxy army. It was established, I think, in 2014. And since then, the Americans have been training the Kurdish militias in the eastern shore of the Euphrates and taking over the oil fields. So now there is this clash of interest between the U.S. and Turkey when it comes to the Kurdish militias. So if the negotiations succeed between the Kurds and Jolani, then the U.S. will definitely lift the sanctions gradually. Well, how is the U.S. going to resolve the animosity between the

Turks and the Kurds? That's a very big question, and that's a one million dollar question. Now, the head of SDF, Mazloum Abadi, says that he is ready to negotiate with Jolani and find a solution or a middle ground. But the demands of the Kurds in this case, that they want an autonomy and not only administrative autonomy, but also political autonomy. I think this is going to face a big opposition from the Jolani government, which is an extension of the Turkish intelligence. So this is a recipe for more conflict in the region and not stability. But if, just for an argument's sake, that they found the middle ground by establishing a federal system, basically giving the Kurds what they want and pushing them away, 30 kilometers away from the borders with Turkey,

then Turkey will turn a blind eye because it has big also economic and geopolitical interests in Syria. What is the biggest international implication from the fall of Assad? Actually, there are many international implications, one of which is the United States has emerged as a superpower again in the region. This has been the case since the 60s and the 70s when they have connected the dollar to the oil. So we had the petrodollar for quite a long time. Then the US didn't need much of the oil from the Gulf because they extracted their own oil,

basically. But now in the region, since there has been a serious threat against Israel's security after October 7, the U.S. has projected enormous might on the region and has given unlimited support to realization, even if they don't like the U.S. presence in the region us and see the road and silk initiative of China, it has to pass through Iran, Iraq, and Syria, going all the way to the Mediterranean. But with the presence now of the U.S. forces on the eastern shore of the Euphrates, with the presence of all these militias running around the country, I think the Chinese would be also big L. They have received a big L in this case. One more thing, Judge, I think... Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute. The Chinese will have received what? Like this is a big down for their interest in the region,

an L, like a lose for them. Because you have multiple things here, one of which is the road and silk initiative passing through Syria to the Mediterranean, which is going to be frozen. Secondly, in the governorate of Idlib, where Jolani was the emir, there are around 15,000 Uyghurs. They came from Xinjiang to Turkey because Erdogan invited them and said, you guys are persecuted in China. Come here to Turkey. You

can find peace and stability. But he sent them to Syria and he opened them training camps, basically. And this has been even reported by The Vice. There is a documentary on The Vice. You can watch this. You have many training camps there for Uyghur kids, basically. If you're a Uyghur kid, nine years old, you're already joining the military camp. And they have, yes. So there are thousands of well-trained Uyghurs in Syria, and they say that they want to go back to Central Asia and start a war against China.

So I think in the next step, we have to watch this case carefully because these Uyghurs, the same way they came to Syria through the Turkish intelligence, they can go back to Western China in the Qingyang province and start troubles in China itself. Do you expect Donald Trump to lift the sanctions on Syria? I would love for Donald Trump to lift the sanctions on Syria. I'm in no way or shape would like for the Syrian people to suffer in the next stage, even though I don't like the rule in Damascus. But I'm not sadistic like the opponents of Assad who imposed these sanctions with collaboration with different congressmen in the United States.

The lifting sanctions will allow the Syrians to recover, reconstruct. However, judge, we have to be also careful about one thing, that when we allow our country to be invested big time by the foreign corporations, the foreign corporations will bring their invested interest to Syria, and they will put the politicians in their pockets. And the politicians will be sooner or later serving the interest of the foreign corporations, just like the era of the COVID, for example, we've seen politicians serving the pharmaceutical industries. And this is going to be similar in Syria. Syrians will build roads and they will build new

schools and universities, et cetera, but they will not own these things. It's going to be, the ownership is going to be for the foreign investors. And since Tony Blair met with the foreign minister of Syria now in Davos, and if you remember, the World Economic Forum used to tell the people that you will own nothing and you will be happy a few years ago. I think the message for the Syrians is the same.

They will own nothing, but they will have some jobs to survive at the end of the month. That's the only case. Syria will no longer have a national industry factories to export to the outside world. Syrians will become consumers when they were producers before the war. And that's the sad tragedy.

Got it. An unhappy but very insightful series of observations. Kivorko Massian, thank you very much, my dear friend. Much appreciated. We'll have you back again soon. Thank you so much, my dear friend. Much appreciated. We'll have you back again soon. Thank you so much, Judge. Of course. Coming up in just a little bit at 2 o'clock, Colonel Wilkerson.

At 3 o'clock, Professor Mearsheimer. At 4 o'clock, Professor Sachs. At 4.30, Colonel McGregor. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thank you.