Judging Freedom - Kremlin drones _ Russian Ammunition_ Bakhmut fighting Matt VanDyke

Episode Date: May 5, 2023

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Sponsored by the California Department of Public Health. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here with Judging Freedom. Today is Friday, May 5th, 2023. It's about 10 minutes after three o'clock here in the East Coast of the United States. Matt Van Dyke, who usually joins us from the front lines in Ukraine, now joins us from an undisclosed location in Europe. Matt, you've been our eyes and ears for what's going on. Thank you very much for joining us. From your current vantage point, what are you learning? What are you hearing? What do you know about the state of hostilities between the Russian forces and the Ukrainian forces? Well, the offensive's coming. It's not clear if it'll be in May or June. Russia has pretty much resolved the fact it's not going to make any more offensive process anytime soon. They're ready to go on the defensive. They know a counteroffensive is coming from Ukraine.

The only question is where it will be and when. Why would the – excuse me. I'm now going to ask you based upon your own military experience. Is Matt still with us, Gary? Yes, there he is. Okay. Why would the Russians even prepare for an offensive? Why don't they just keep going westward and prevent the offensive?

I don't think they have the capability, really. You've seen how bogged down they've been in Bakhmut. They don't have the logistics. They don't have the trained forces. They don't have the logistics. They don't have the trained forces. They don't have the morale. It's hard to get people to advance. Are you saying this because politically and morally and emotionally and personally you want the Ukrainians to win? Or are you saying this because you honestly and truly believe the Russian military has been degraded by its fighting against the Ukrainians?

I think it's been degraded, but from the very start of this conflict, their logistics were so poor. They had a convoy 40 miles long of trucks and didn't have even diesel fuel tanks, ran out of fuel on the way to Kiev. So really it's a problem that's been systemic in the Russian military for quite some time. You know, this is, Russia had every intent of going on the offensive. They tried it in some places over the past few months and they just weren't successful. They don't have the morale. Nobody wants to advance. It's really Putin and some people that want this war and those soldiers on the front don't want it. Most of them are conscripts. They don't even know why they're there. They don't want to be there and they certainly don't want to die for a war that doesn't make a lot of sense to them either. Are you of the view that President Putin is

unstable or weak or unpopular politically in office as a result of the war? Because we're hearing the opposite here. Well, rumors are pretty strong that he's physically unwell. Something's definitely gone wrong in his decision-making process. Over the course of his career, he hasn't made too many mistakes. Then all of a sudden, this colossal mistake. So something certainly seems off with him. Will he be overthrown or replaced anytime soon? Probably not. It's either going to be a ceasefire that ends this or he's going to die in office. And hopefully whoever comes after him uses that as an excuse to get out of Ukraine. General, who's the Commander-in-Chief of all American forces in Europe, Air Force, Army, Navy, and Marines. He recently testified before the House Armed Services Committee. He has a different view from you, Matt, about whether the Russian forces have been degraded. Here's General Cavoli. I'd like to underline your comment about the specificity of the degradation of the Russian forces. Much of the Russian military has not

been affected negatively by this conflict. Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict. One of those forces is their undersea forces. It's hard to talk in public, as you well know, sir, about undersea warfare and our efforts in that regard. But I can say that the Russians are more active than we've seen them in years. And this is, as you pointed out, despite all of the efforts that they're undertaking inside Ukraine. What do you say, Matt? I think a lot of what he's talking about is other parts of the efforts that they're undertaking inside Ukraine. What do you say, Matt? I think a lot of what he's talking about is other parts of the Russian military. Certainly their infantry, their armor, their artillery, all this has been affected and degraded by the war.

I think he's talking about naval power, air power, and other parts of the Russian military. There's really no question here. Air power is very significant here. As you may know from the top secret documents that were revealed, allegedly by a 21-year-old in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, if you believe the government's version, but they were revealed, they are authentic and they are accurate. The top command of the U.S. military, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, he's one level below them. The top command believes that the Ukrainian

air defenses have been substantially degraded and will be degraded down to nothing by June, and that Ukraine is likely to lose this war. That's the opinion of the American generals. Now, you're on the ground. You have a different view. Challenge that view. Well, look, I don't know what the stockpiles are of ammunition for air defense. I know a lot of Patriot systems have just arrived in Ukraine. I'm confident every effort's being made to supply Ukraine with air defense. You know, the Russian capability and missile supply has been degraded also. Their ability to produce more cruise missiles has been degraded. They've been importing Iranian-made drones that are slow-flying and not particularly effective.

You know, I mean, the air war is one issue. I think the real danger with Ukrainian air defense, if it is very degraded, is Russia actually being able to use its air force and gain air superiority, which it hasn't been able to do in this conflict. That's what I'm most concerned about. But I believe that the West realizes what a problem this is. And if it came close to that point, that the taps would be open and the supply would come, even if it meant lowering the stockpiles in some of these European countries or even the United States temporarily in order to do that. Here's more from General Cavoli, in which he actually talks about the numbers of pieces of equipment that the Russians still have. How do you believe the threats are going to change in Yukon in the coming decades? In your crystal ball, what do you see?

Do you mean in general, Senator? In general. Well, I think Russia is quite likely to remain the core security challenge in Europe for some years to come. Their military has suffered significant losses in this conflict, but they've mainly been in the ground domain. The Air Force, the tactical Air Force, has lost about 80 fighters and fighter bombers, but they have more than 1,000 of them left. The long-range aviation has not been touched. The Navy has barely been touched, lost a ship or two.

The strategic nuclear forces, the cyber, the space have not been touched. The Navy has barely been touched, lost a ship or two. The strategic nuclear forces, the cyber, the space have not been touched. So I think Russia will continue to be the core security challenge. But there are others, China. She said Ukraine, she meant Ukraine. He's talking about the core security challenge, the United States. Sounds like the Russian military is still pretty viable, Matt. What do you say? I mean, being our main adversary in Europe, who else would be? I mean, it's far behind the United States and NATO,

but who else would be our main adversary? But the point is that I'm trying to make, and that I think the general is trying to make is that this is a mammoth military against a limited one with a kill ratio seven to one, according to the top secret documents that were revealed. Seven Ukrainian soldiers killed for every one Russian. Do the math. It's almost impossible for Ukraine to survive. I'm not aware of the seven to one figure. The figures I've seen have not been at that ratio. But regardless, then why hasn't Russia made the progress that it's tried to make in this war? It ground to a halt. It's barely made any progress since last winter. It creeps along even in Bakhmut. Nine months later, Ukraine still controls 15% of it.

Hardly any movement in the front lines in several months. And now Ukraine are the ones who are going to be going on the counteroffensive. So I don't see a lot of progress for this second best military in the world. And that's the evidence. I mean, what's on I don't see a lot of progress for this second best military in the world. And that's the evidence. I mean, what's on paper doesn't really matter when you look at what's actually able to be accomplished by their military. And it's not very much. Here's Sergei Progozhin. Now, there's a lot of foul language in here. You'll see the subtitles and hear the bleeps, the head of the Wagner group cursing out, cursing out the Minister of Defense Shogu and the commander in chief of the Russian forces.

Forget his name, but you'll hear it and see it in a minute. This film was made in front of a pile of dead bodies of Wagner soldiers. The version that we were able to capture has those bodies blurred, so you can't see them. It is, of course, a crime under Russian law, American law, international law to film and show and try to make some political point over dead bodies. But Mr. Prokosian marches to his own drum. Here we go. Боеприпасы! Посмотрите на них, сука! Жи... Если вы даете норму боеприпасов, их в пять раз меньше. Они пришли сюда добровольцами и умирают за то, чтобы вы жировали в своих кабинетах с красным деревом. Учтите это! This is supposedly one of President Putin's best friends, Shagoo, whom he attacked by name as the Minister of Defense,

Gerasimov, as General Gerasimov, the Commander-in-Chief of all Russian forces. I want to fill you in. In response to this, this film was made yesterday. Today in Russia, in response to this, the Russian military announced that if Wagner can't or won't fight, we're going to bring in the Chechens, who, as you know, are fierce, fierce fighters of the same caliber. Some of the people you fought with in your career, certainly of the same caliber as Wagner. OK, what do you think? I mean, the Russian military is so great.

Why do they need mercenaries and Chechens? I don't think Perzogin is going to pull out at all. He's making this threat. He's made these threats before to get ammunition. I mean, what's he going to do? He's going to pull out and cost made these threats before to get ammunition. I mean, what's he gonna do? He's gonna pull out and cost Russia the battle of Bakhmut. He'll never be able to leave the first floor of a building again, because he'll be thrown out a window as soon as he does.

So I think it's an empty threat. He has a conflict with the Ministry of Defense over ammunition. It's been going on for some time, i highly doubt that russia is going to gamble on this and have him withdraw they can't just mobilize chechens out of nowhere i think it's alive it is a lot of talk he's certainly an animated character um but if he wants to stay alive he's not going to follow through on that threat you're you're on that even the judging of freedom folks who disagree with everything you say must agree. He certainly is an animated character, to say the least.

You mentioned Bakhmut. Hasn't Bakhmut fallen? Haven't the Ukrainians lost so many human beings there that they've decided it's not worth defending this now shell of a city it depends on your definition of fallen and your definition of you matthew van dyke told the judge freedom audience that bakmout has fallen you told us this three or four weeks ago right well i i qualify the statement with the information I have is that it looks like it may have fallen. That's what I was hearing from people who I heard it from journalists who were on their way to Bakhmut. I heard it from soldiers who were outside of Bakhmut. That was the word going through through through the community and through the military.

You know, 15 percent of Bakhmut still controlled by Ukraine. Does that count as falling? You know, it depends on your perspective. The center of the city is controlled by Russia. Ukraine will fight on there. Whether that's a good decision or not is for history to judge. The United States has been pressuring Ukraine to withdraw from Bakhmut since January, possibly even before that. But, you know, I mean, they're holding Russia off. It's good for morale for the force. The ones who are fighting there are heroes, regardless of what decisions are made at the top. And I hope that they're able to continue holding off Russia as long as possible. The Russian military reports the deaths of 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the month of April. Is this believable?

No. All the fighting has been taken in Bakhmut. There's no way 15,000 died in that amount of time in Bakhmut. Are they fighting elsewhere or just Bakhmut? There's limited exchanges across the front. There's almost always artillery in a lot of different areas with really not that high casualty count. Really, all the high-intensity warfare has been in Bakhmut for the past two, three months at least. It's highly unlikely that that number died. Both sides lie about the

number killed and about the number that haven't been killed. You can't really trust the numbers that either side say, really. I would go with Department of Defense estimates. Presumably, a lot of those are made using intelligence intercepts, satellite photos. That's probably the best estimate. And even those estimates vary widely widely we're not going to talk about this war what the real casualties were so Department of Defense estimates show 7 to 1 kill ratio you've been fighting for

most of your adult life after your years at Georgetown isn't a 7 to 1 kill ratio catastrophic I mean the worst kill ratios at World War II Isn't a 7-to-1 kill ratio catastrophic? I mean, the worst kill ratios in World War II were 2-to-1 and 3-to-1. Who's ever heard of a 7-to-1?

I haven't seen a 7-to-1. I've seen estimates that there's about 100,000 to 200,000 casualties on each side. That includes killed in action, wounded, and missing. I haven't seen this discrepancy of seven to one. Almost all the estimates I've seen have put the Russian casualty figures higher than the Ukrainian figures, which would make sense considering, especially in Bakhmut. Russians, especially Wagner, have been sending in just waves of people. They're shot if they try to retreat. If the Ukrainians start making advances, Russians will shell their own positions just to try to kill the Ukrainians advancing. There's such a low value on life in the Russian military.

It's been there. Russia always had the highest casualties in World War I, high casualties in World War II because of the way that they fight these wars. And nothing's changed of it. I'll look for the 7-to-1 figure. I just have not seen that or anything close to that. You are traveling in Europe, and in the midst of your travels, I assume, because this just happened two or three days ago, two drones attempted to attack a building in the Kremlin. The Russians blame the Ukrainians. The Russians blame the Americans. I would think if it was Ukraine, certainly somebody in the American State Department or a Defense Department or a national security council knew about it and either approved it or looked the other way. What is the general perception that you gather from people with whom you interact in your outside of Ukraine travels about these Russian drones exploding

over the Kremlin? Remember, the last time a bomb exploded over the Kremlin was 1941. And we know what happened to the military that attempted to do that. Right. It seems to be that it's an internal Russian dissident group that would do this. I don't think Ukraine... Russian dissident group? Yeah. There's opposition groups in Russia that have taken up arms. A lot of these attacks that are happening where buildings are being burned constantly. There's factories that get torched, malls that get torched. This has been happening for months in Russia. I really don't think it's Ukrainian agents doing it. I think it's internal opposition to Putin that's doing it.

For the Ukrainians to be able to detonate a drone over the Kremlin, I really don't think they have that capability. Plus, most likely that drone had to be controlled by line of sight and to be detonated in that position. But certainly it wasn't an assassination attempt. Very far from that. It was more just a statement, presumably to show the weakness of Putin. But I really do not think that it was Ukraine that did it. I wish they did. I wish they had the capability to do it. You wish they did. At least you're consistent, Matt.

Gary, do we have the tape of the drone being destroyed on top of the Kremlin building? If you can find it, just run it while Matt and I are talking. I don't know if you've seen these views. Here we go. That's the Kremlin. That's the Kremlin wall in front.

There's the drone. It explodes. You'll see a few more views of this. You're going to see it repeated, Matt. This is a view from outside the wall. Here it is again. Same one. There were two drones.

You've seen the same one twice. There you go. Now you're going to see a different version of it from the other side. This is from Russian television. It's the other side of that dome. Watch the explosion. Now you'll see a close-up. Well, you can see the fire on top of the dome.

It's the same dome we saw earlier. Now, that fire appears to be residue from the drone, either fuel or material or shrapnel or whatever was in it. It appears as though this drone was diffused by Russian electronic technology. It doesn't appear as though it was detonated. It doesn't appear as though it struck its target. It doesn't appear as though it was shot down. Do you still think this was an internal Russian dissident group being crazy enough to attack the building that Vladimir Putin works in and sleeps in?

Well, I don't think the Ukraine has the capability to have a live satellite feed from a drone to be able to push a button and attempt to detonate it flying over the Kremlin. They just don't believe they have that capability. There's no sign that they have anything close to that capability or they'd also be using it on the battlefield. So I think it was done by a group controlling the drone within line of sight of the drone, most likely. Not particularly sophisticated attack. It is surprising if it took the Russians that long,

they couldn't destroy it or disable it until it was already over the Kremlin. The Russians should be quite concerned about that. When do you think the last subject matter, I know it's late where you are, when do you think the Ukraine spring offensive will come, if at all, Matt? If I had to guess, I'd probably think most likely June, probably a summer offensive, wait until the ground's harder. And, you know, there's all this speculation will be May, you want to leave some element of surprise. And with the leak of the intelligence, the Russians are ready now. So probably it's best to delay it.

But, you know, I don't know when they're going to do it. But that's what I would suggest is throw a wrench in the works and go for June. Matt, we wish you well. Stay well. Thank you so much for all the time you spend with us. Godspeed. Thank you. Of course. If you like all that, I know you do, like and subscribe.

More as we get it. And they promise to let you know about whether Donald Trump is going to testify Monday morning in court in New York City in the civil rape trial as soon as I hear it. And I might hear it before the judge does. More as we get it, as always. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.