Judging Freedom - Larry Johnson: Can Iran Avoid War with the US?

Episode Date: August 26, 2024

Larry Johnson: Can Iran Avoid War with the US?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is August 26, 2024. Larry Johnson will be here in just a moment on, is Israel committing national suicide? But first this. A divisive presidential election is upon us and the winner is gold. Let me tell you what I mean. Since 2016, our national debt has grown a staggering 70% and gold has increased by 60 percent do you own gold i do i bought my gold in february 2023 and it has risen 33 percent you've heard me talk about lear capital the company i trust let me tell you why recently kevin demerit who is the founder and ceo of lear, assisted the FBI in discovering a nationwide gold theft ring. And because of Kevin's good work, the FBI caught these people before they could steal anymore. That's why I have been saying the people at Lear are good people. They believe in America. They believe

in their product and they're honest to the core. So take action right now, my friends. Call 800-511-4620 or go to learjudgenap.com. Protect your savings and retirement before it's too late. 800-511-4620, learjudgenap.com. Remember, hope is not a strategy, but gold is. Larry Johnson, welcome here, my dear friend. Some of the viewers who write in ahead of time were taking odds on what color shirt you'd be wearing today, and the odds were low because most people were betting, I don't know what color it is, but they were betting this one. Yeah, it's the Monday red shirt. Red shirt Monday day. Life in Florida. God bless you. But the matter is far, far more serious. I want to talk to you

in a granular way about if Iran is going to be at war with the U.S. But before we get there, is Israel committing national suicide, Larry? Sure appears that way. You know, when you're in a fight, in particular in a war, the last thing you want to do is be fighting a civil war, be warring against each other at home. You know, regardless of what people think about what's going on in Israel and Gaza in the West Bank.

I'm saying just looking, stepping back and looking objectively of what is happening within Israel from a political standpoint. You've got the head of the military, basically the Israeli military, the IDF, spokesman coming out and opposing Netanyahu. You've got the head of Mossad opposing Netanyahu. And Mossad is like the Israeli version of the CIA. You have the Shin Bet, which is, I describe it as, it's like the FBI with the CIA twist, because it's really,

it's not so much a law enforcement outfit as it is a domestic intelligence, domestic security outfit. All of them are coming out and condemning Netanyahu. And Netanyahu, in terms, has been calling them cowards and weaklings. And then, in addition to that, you've got some very prominent members of, you know, former members of the Israeli Defense Force. There's General Itzhak Barik, who he put an op-ed in Haaretz over the weekend. And boy, he didn't pull any punches. You know, he's certainly not getting invited to the Hanukkah parties this year

because what he came out and said was that Israel, if it keeps on this path, it's going to collapse within a year. That the country will come apart at the seams. So it's just, you know, you've got this separation. I call it sort of the baby boomer generation, those people who are at least in their mid-60s, that served in the Israeli military or in Mossad and such,

going up against this younger crowd, this, you know, the Etamir bin Gavir and the Bezalez Smotrich, this younger extremist crowd, and there's a real split. Well, some of the stuff that General Barik said is strategic and some of it is personal. For example, he said of Prime Minister Netanyahu, he has lost his humanity, morality, norms, values, and sense of responsibility. That's about as harsh as you can get. He's not talking about Netanyahu's personality. He's talking about his decisions to slaughter innocents and to use reservists and the IDF with which to do so. He also, let me add, is the Shin Bet chief. So this is like the head of the NSA or the head of the FBI attacking Ben-Gavir's militia, calling them Jewish terrorists. Now, Ben-Gavir, who's the head of their FBI, he has his own private army, or not private, it's subject to him,

his own army, his own militia, his own police force, and they back up and protect the settlers in the West Bank who are killing Palestinians and in some cases taking on the police? Do I have that right? Yeah, absolutely. You know, it's very reminiscent of Hitler's SA. You know, it was one of the predecessors of the SS. It was active in the early days of the formation, the rise of the Nazis in Germany in 1933, 34. And they were basically sort of thugs. They'd go around and beat up Jews and destroy their shops. It was a terrorist outfit.

That's exactly what Ben-Gavir has created. And they are, in fact, carrying out attacks against Israeli military personnel. And Alistair Crook was on your showbollah and a war with Iran, it's facing this tremendous internal division. You can't pretend that it's just one or two. And you know, what's interesting is if you just read those quotations that you read, if you said that, or I said that, and we do say that, we'd be accused of being anti-Semites. Yet here are the Jewish officials who serve their government as patriots are saying it. Then we know that this isn't about anti-Semitism. This is about barbarism. Right.

Netanyahu and his crowd. One of them is still a high-ranking official. I don't know how they get their jobs. The guy that's in charge of Shin Bet, is he appointed by Netanyahu? Ronan Barr. Right. So is he appointed by Netanyahu? I mean, would this be like Chris Wray, the head of the FBI, attacking the president?

No, no. Because Israel, at least with respect to its intelligence services, both Shin Bet and Mossad, these are not political plum jobs where they pick out a crony and put them in charge. Now, I'm not saying that there are no politics in Assad and no politics in Chibet. But by and large, you're dealing with people who are proven professionals. The Israelis have been keen to not promote clowns into those positions because they've recognized in the past that, you know, the survival of Israel may depend upon them. And so when these people are coming out and calling out the Netanyahu government for its genocide, essentially, you recognize that Israel's in trouble because it's not like the economy's humming along great guns.

It's not. It's not that tourists are flocking to Israel. They're not. That the ports are open and receiving goods right and left. They're not. So at the same time that Israel's embroiled in this attempt to exterminate the Palestinian people, they are in an economic decline. And the current leadership doesn't want to acknowledge what's going on.

From what source, Larry, does Israel get its oil, principally? Well, a large amount of it comes through Turkey and out of Iraq, of all things. So, again, there is that aspect of power that the Turks could exercise to force Israel into changing its course. This is, you know, the problem we have is that the mindset of Gavir, Smotrich, and Netanyahu, if you've never dealt with people like that, you know, you don't understand that you can't reach them with reason. They are beyond the reach of reason and logic. They are so caught up with their own emotions

and their own, they've settled in their belief that nothing's going to dissuade them from that until they actually set the whole place on fire. This is, you know, the head of Shin Bet, one of his concerns was that they are in the thrall of a rabbi with this eschatological vision. And when we talk about eschatology, the doctrine of last things,

they literally believe that they are going to bring about this battle of Armageddon and that it will usher in the appearance of the Messiah. Because remember, from the Jewish tradition, the Messiah has not yet come. For the evangelical Christians, it is, oh, Jesus, the Messiah, will return. But this particular branch of Judaism in Israel, with their extremist views, believe that they're actually going to usher in and prepare the conditions that will bring about the appearance of the Messiah. Does Netanyahu and his crew have an academic or a theological guru, a rabbi who preaches all of this at the same time he preaches blowing up mosques and busloads of Arabs. Resolve to earn your degree

in the new year in the bay with WGU. WGU is an online accredited university that specializes in personalized learning with courses available 24-7 and monthly start dates. You can earn your degree on your schedule. You may even be able to graduate sooner than you think by demonstrating mastery of the material you know. Make 2025 the year you focus on your future. Learn more at WGU.edu. Yeah, not Netanyahu. Netanyahu, you know, he's all about power and taking care of himself.

But the Smotrich and the Ben-Gavir, yes, this Rabbi, Dolph Lior, he's been quite influential and quite extreme so it is there's a religious dimension to this we can't discount that I think the tendency is for many western pundits not to delve

into the religious aspects of this but they're real as far as these people are concerned, and that's what's driving them. I mean, part of their premise is that they actually have a covenant with God and that that was established 3,000 years ago, and they have a right to this land, and they have the right to do whatever they need to do

to eliminate those who are not chosen of God to live there. And so when you take a religious belief like that and then translate it into policy, of course you can kill Palestinian children. Because they're just refuse in the way that you need to clear out. And so that's part of what has the head of Shin Bet so alarmed in his comments. And he said, look, I grew up in a family of Holocaust survivors, and we believed in never again. But he goes, my God, what I'm seeing coming out of these Jewish mouths about Jewish supremacy, and not just that, hey, we're smarter, we're more accomplished, but it's that we're actually, we are human beings.

You are untermensch. You are not human beings. He says that mindset is what alarms him. And that has taken hold among a big segment within Israel. That's the danger. Is this a majority view, this messianic belief, God the Father gave us this land and we can crush and destroy anything or any person who stands in our way?

We can establish our own morality because we are the chosen. Yeah, apparently at least it's over 50% now within Israel. And again, part of those numbers, that number may go up as Israelis who were secular are leaving Israel or coming back to the United States, going to Europe, going to other places, because they don't embrace that. As they leave, that means those who do believe that become a larger percentage of the population. So it's sort of naturally gravitating that way. Is the IDF worn out, exhausted, not prepared to take on Hezbollah, or ready and raring to go, or something in between? No, I think they're worn out. Look, Israel is largely a reserve army. So the reservists, they've gone through some training, but then they're called up for their annual training.

But in this case, they're called up and they have to go. They leave their businesses behind. They leave whatever work they were doing. And when you leave your job, in several of these cases, they don't have other people that can step in to replace them, number one. And then they're launched into these combat operations in Gaza. And let's not forget, you know, some may criticize me for drawing the parallels with what happened to the Nazi troops in Ukraine when they first went in and were rounding up civilians and killing them. But well, at the time, the German commanders were writing back into Wehrmacht saying, look, this is causing a psychological toll on our troops. It's one of the reasons that they created

the Einsatzgruppen, and then they went off and developed special techniques for trying to kill Jews during World War II. Because that's what these Israeli soldiers are experiencing. They're not killing guys that are decked out in body armor and carrying RPGs. They're killing women and children, by and large, and the images are apparent. They're horrific. I mean, just in recent days, the actual pictures of a baby burned. I mean, it's sickening. Babies missing chunks of their heads. Now, we heard the Israelis after October 7th talk about,

oh, Hamas killed 40 children. We've never seen a single picture. We've never had a single picture. We've never had a single name. But what's coming out of Palestine is names and pictures that are horrific. And it's establishing a reality. And so this is taking a toll on these Israeli soldiers. Plus, they don't have an industrial base that's just cranking out weapon after weapon after weapon. And so they don't have a strong reserve. And that's what, at least the military is being honest when the spokesman, who is a rear admiral, said just two weeks ago. They said, look, we can't beat Hamas.

Hamas is an idea. And the evidence from the ground is showing that Hamas is recruiting more people now. Because what's happening is these Palestinians who are outraged at what's been happening to their families are now rising up to fight back. So Israel has really set itself a problem that it is not capable of solving. What are the chances, what is the likelihood of Iran engaging in a full-scale war with Israel and the United States coming to Israel's support? And if the U.S. comes to the Israel support, I'm sorry for cutting you off. No, no, no.

Would it be with both feet, full guns blazing? I think it's highly unlikely. Let me put this. Iran does not want a full-scale war with Israel. What I think Iran is going to do is they will launch a ballistic missile attack. They may take out that, you know, Alistair was on your show earlier this morning talking about this place, Galat,

which is Mossad headquarters. It represents what they call Unit 8200, which is Israel's version of the National Security Agency. They intercept communications, emails, telephone calls. They track people. I could see Iran launching an attack and hitting a facility like that, maybe destroying it, but it's going to be limited. It's not going to be what we saw in April, April 13th, when they launched that barrage of drones and then cruise missiles and then

ballistic missiles, because that was a demonstration. That was Iran's attempt to try to tell Israel that, look, we're not some impoverished little kid. We've got we've got a full panoply of weapons here. And, you know, watch what you do going forward. Well, Israel didn't get that message. They assassinated Hania in Tehran. So, you know, Iran is, in my view, I think Iran is preparing a strike, but they're taking their time. They are, one, bolstering and building up their defenses around sensitive sites in Iran that they believe Israel would be likely to hit. They're doing so with the help of Russia, who's providing air defense systems like the S-400. Russia also is providing trained personnel who know how to operate those systems, and then they can work with the Iranians in training them

so that they will become proficient with electronic warfare. But Iran's not, you know, in contrast to Israel, this is the real oddity. Iran's not driven by this rabid emotion, even though, you know, the images that appear in the West or the crowds of Iranians chanting the death to America and death to Israel. But the reality right now is they're weighing not just seeking revenge, but politically what's going to happen. Because right now, Iran is coming out of the shadows economically. They have been under Western sanctions, but now because of their relationships with the BRICS countries, especially with China and with Russia, Iran's economic fortunes are starting to look up.

And the dynamic that's playing out in the region is that the United States and Israel aren't becoming stronger. They're becoming more weaker. They're becoming more isolated. And Iran looks at, like with the United States, we've deployed this massive naval fleet. We've got two carrier strike groups in the region, not to mention, you know, a couple of, you know, several squadrons of F-35s, F-22, F-16 planes deployed. Well, that deployment puts a cost on the United States. And it's like, you know, if I tell you to sit there and hold a gun and be ready to shoot, and I say, okay, I'll be back in seven days. Keep that up. Don't let go. You're going to get tired. All right. So you've made the point very convincingly that Iran does not want a war

with the United States. Does Hezbollah? And can, if the answer is answer is yes, to the extent you have an answer, can Iran restrain Hezbollah, or will Iran unleash Hezbollah? Yeah, and Hezbollah is in the same fashion. What they see themselves as is defending the Palestinians. They're not looking for a full-blown war with Israel but they're ready to do so if necessary and they have the wherewithal that was what was so interesting about this exchange Israel showed up with bombs dropped from aircraft

and Hezbollah responded with a barrage of rockets and drones. And part of that, you know, I think one of the things that's going on with those drone attacks is that every time Israel would fire from its Iron Dome missile, there's intelligence being collected. It wouldn't surprise me at all that Russia or China gathered intelligence on the locations of where those weapon systems were being fired, and that's being shared with the Iranians and being shared with Hezbollah. Because a lot of times you can throw out a drone or two just to draw them out to see, okay, where are you and what are you shooting? And the other element that's in here, Judge, is that every time Israel shoots off one of those iron dome missiles, you know, two missiles to try to engage one inbound target, it's not like they've got a massive stockpile that they're sitting on that they can just go pull

them out of the cupboard and then put them, you know, reload. So Hezbollah, though, you know, it sent a message, and Alistair talked about it convincingly on your first show today, that, you know, we can stand and we can go toe-to-toe with you on this. And what Hassan Nasrallah said yesterday in a speech, it's fairly lengthy, it's online in transcript, and people should read it. You know, if necessary, they may invade Israel. But what they're hoping to see is that Israel agrees to a ceasefire and actually comes to a genuine peace agreement with the Palestinian people. But that's not going to happen. No, that's not going to happen as long as Netanyahu is running the government.

Jake Sullivan, President Biden's National Security Advisor, was in Canada yesterday, Sunday, and he had this to say about Hezbollah, cut number three. We have been concerned about the conflict escalating into an all-out regional war since October 7th. And we have worked around the clock with partners and allies, moving military assets, engaging in intensive diplomacy, both publicly and privately behind the scenes to avert that outcome. We continue to work to avert that outcome. And our hope is that the events of last night do not spill out into an escalation that leads to regional war. Fanciful hope. Doesn't he know that Netanyahu wants war? Let Netanyahu and his religious zealotry folks believe that this is the time God ordained for them to kill

everybody that's impeding them. Yeah, the United States could put a halt to this immediately. And you say, tell Netanyahu, okay, the military aid's done and we're cutting you off economically. You're not going to get another drop until you sit down and do a serious negotiation with the Palestinians. And that, you know, part of what needs to happen is that all of the 700, eight hundred thousand settlers that are in the West Bank, they need to come out. They need to withdraw. But that's, you know, again, that's what needs to happen.

But politically, that's not possible. They're not going to do that. And so that's why they are. Israel is making these decisions that are not in its best interest. And in making those decisions, it's going to do exactly what you said, which is expand this into a broader war with Hezbollah, with Iran, and with the Houthis. What's fascinating is while there is some coordination between them, they're still retaining the capacity to act independently. And the Houthis basically

have defeated, they've shown that they defeated the U.S. Navy. Think about that. What? Yeah. Well, the U.S. Navy set up the Operation Prosperity Guardian in December. We were going to stop those Houthis. We were going to show them that they couldn't close off the Red Sea. We sent a carrier task force group in there, and what happened? The group left because we couldn't stop the Houthis. You know, so at least from the perspective of the Houthis, they won because they're not the ones that had to stop shooting missiles and rockets

they're not the ones that pulled out pulled the ships out of the Red Sea now there are still two I think two US destroyers there the USS Cole and I forget the name of the other but again they haven't stopped the Houthis. And the port of Eliyat in Israel, which serves the Red Sea, it's gone bankrupt. They're laying people off. It's stopped operating. Colonel Wilkerson says we only have three fully operative aircraft carriers, and two of them are there in the eastern Mediterranean.

I guess the third is somewhere near China. Is this a wise use of military assets? Oh, heavens no. And again, the point is, the longer they're deployed, the more they're depleted. Because we don't have the traditional ship tenders like we did in World War II, which would tell along behind these convoys and be able to resupply quickly. A lot of times they need, particularly the destroyers, if they fire off any air defense missiles, they've actually got to go to port to be reloaded. That's number one.

There's also news that came out over the last week about the U.S. Navy. They're talking about they're going to have to decommission 17 ships because they don't have enough trained crew to man them or woman them, you know, to completely staff them. So right there, you're seeing a weakening of the U.S. Navy. And this comes at a time where China's Navy is building up and expanding. They're building ships at a pace that looks like something we did during World War II. And I'm not suggesting that we need to counter that or get into a military confrontation with China over that. But I'm just simply noting that in comparison of how the United States perceives itself and then what we're actually doing, it's a night and day difference. Not happy stuff, but a terrific analysis, Larry.

Much, much appreciated. Thank you very much for your time. See you at the end of the week with the young man, McGovern, for the Intelligence Roundtable. Okay, at least I wore a cheery shirt, okay? Yes, you did. Yes, you did. I don't know if you can see the comments that I do,

but our regular viewers love your shirts, Larry. All right, thanks so much. Thank you, my friend. All the best. Coming up at two o'clock this afternoon on all of this, an academic perspective from Professor Jeffrey Sachs. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thank you.