Judging Freedom - Larry Johnson : Trump’s Trapped and Doesn't Know It

Episode Date: March 16, 2026

Larry Johnson : Trump’s Trapped and Doesn't Know ItSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

declared wars are commonplace. Pragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression, with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes to love your country you had to alter or abolish the government? What if Jefferson was right? What if that government is best, which governs least?

What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now? Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for judging freedom. Today is Monday, March 16th, 20206. My dear friend Larry Johnson joins us. now. Thank you, Larry. Thanks for accommodating my schedule. Deeply appreciated. I know how much

you are in demand. Let's just address the hot rumor over the weekend. Is Netanyahu alive or dead? No, I think he's alive. You know, there have been some odd videos out there. And again, you don't know if those odd videos were produced by the Israeli government or by people trying to discredit Netanyahu. So, you know, I'll assume he's alive. He could have been wounded. And so, you know, that may be one of the reasons he's out of sight. They put out a coffee video of him. You know, there's some donut shop drinking coffee.

But the people focus on the fact that after he drink his coffee, the coffee was still at the same level. Oh, boy. You know. Chris told me that one of the videos that showed him, moving around, showed him with six fingers, which is an indication that AI, I didn't know this until he just told me that AI has a problem with fingers on people's hands. Yeah.

Yeah, no, I saw that. And you have to really slow the video down to start, you know, start counting fingers. So, you know, there are some AI images of him out there. That is, that's clear. The real question is why. What generated a lot of this was they had an national. National Security meeting. And instead of him chairing, it was chaired by this knucklehead cats, who's their defense

minister. I mean, that guy is so far in over his head, he didn't even, you know, he doesn't know what he's doing. Well, is there evidence of which you're aware that Iran has sleeper cells in the United States? No, no. You know, we've been hearing about sleeper cells, good Lord. Remember right after 9-11, all those sleeper cells are going to be

activated. Right. That's what do they use to justify the Patriot Act. Yeah. Yeah. And so, you know, there were actual cells in the country that weren't sleeping at all. And they're the ones who, you know, hijacked the aircraft. And that, it turns out the CIA knew about. You know, it was not like we had no knowledge. We knew about it. Yeah, they like to focus on this guy down in Texas in Austin who, you know, grabbed his rifle, went into a bar, and shot it up. You know, that's just an individual one-off. He's not some sleeper agent that was, you know, got a text message and say,

okay, get the work for the glory of Allah. Just not the case. But, again, it's used to manipulate U.S. public opinion to be more supportive of the war and to recognize, oh, my God, we're a threat from every side without understanding that, you know, so much throughout the history, these terrorist attacks many times have been reactions to what we have done. You know, like the, we focus, they like to blame the Iranians for the bombing of the Marine barracks in October of 1983, ignoring the fact that U.S. battleships had been shelling Shia communities in the Bakal Valley in September. You know, I don't

sure what the death toll was, but we certainly fired at least two big salvos in that month. So again, we always like to pretend that we're the innocent, we're minding our own business, and these nasty Muslims come get us for no good reason. It's, you know, folks, we've got a lot of blood on our hands. Here's the junior senator from Texas, who's in the Mike Huckabee camp, when it turns to his belief that to God the Father gave all the Middle East to the present day Israeli government talking about sleeper cells, Chris? The threat of terrorist attack is higher now than it has been in decades. And there are two causes of it.

Number one, we had four years under Joe Biden of open borders. We had 12 million people flood across the border. basically an open invitation to every terrorist, every Hamas and Hezbollah and IRGC terrorist, come to America. Have you been briefed about how many Iran's sleeper cells there could be inside the U.S. right now? I have been, and a lot of people came in through Biden with this stupid open border. But we know where most of them are. We've got our eye on all of them, I think. Is it dozens?

They came in through the open border policies of Sleepy Joe. Biden and we've got our eyes on all of them. The question, of course, was a setup that was Peter Ducey from Fox, but is there any credibility to his answers or to what Senator Cruz just said? Please show me that single incident, single act of terrorism carried out by Hamas or Hezbollah in the United States since, you know, Hezbollah came into creation in 1982, not a single attack by a Hezbollah operative in the United States. I mean, so again, it's scare tactics.

You know, there's a lot to blame Joe Biden on. And, you know, I agree. The border was left, you know, open out of control. But we've not seen, you know, if, in fact, these are all terrorist cells sent to, you know, be activated at the right moment. Well, Iran's at war right now. So I don't know what right or moment you could get in order to activate those cells. And they're not activated. They're not carrying out the attacks.

So we did see the other day in New York City, two characters that were, had made bombs and tried to throw them at, I think, the Israeli embassy. But those two guys had ISIS connections. This, you know, this is the thing that we continue, the American people continue to. They don't understand the difference between ISIS and Iran. The fact of the matter is, Iran, when General Soleimani was sent forces into, Iranian forces into Syria back in 2012, was to fight ISIS. And by God, who was helping fund ISIS at the time by providing weapons and training? Us. You know, so we had, we had, the very people we claimed.

that attacked us a 9-11 by 10 years later we're providing them support and weapons and training through cutouts of course we didn't necessarily want to deal with them directly but you know we were never fighting the the ones who killed Americans on 9-11 we were we ended up supporting them that's who iran was fighting we should have been a natural ally with iran in that battle to go after I know the Shia-Muslims look at, they don't like to call the radical Sunnis Muslim, because they said what those radical Sunnis are doing is un-Islamic. It's not in accordance with Islamic theology. What happened at Karg Island?

What did the U.S. achieve there? First of all, what is it? Carg Island is a it's one of five oil terminals in Iran it puts out a major amount of oil I guess we we cratered the runway which is you got to say you know the runway is like 6,000 feet long and we hit it in the middle so it's now only you know only an aircraft that could land within 3,000 feet could land there. Well, that takes out any large aircraft like C-17s and C-5s

that the United States has. They could no longer land there if we were going to try to take it over. That means only a slow-flying C-130. It's got no propellers. So this was just a symbolic show that accomplished nothing. Because the very next day, Iran was still sending

oil out through the Persian Gulf down through the Strait of Hormuz. that have been loaded up at Karg Island. But Karg Island's become the symbol in some of the, you know, these armchair warriors that are around Trump. You know, they've played a video game or two, and they think, oh, all we've got to do is shut down Karg Island and Iran is crippled.

Well, no, that's not the case, but, okay, they pursue that fantasy. And they don't even think through the practical consequences of if we're going to put troops on Karg Island, how are we going to get them there, number one? And let's say we can somehow get them there through dropping them from airplanes. The ones are on the ground, how the hell do we resupply them? Because, you know, if they're engaged with combat, that they're going to need food, water, and more ammunition.

And then on top of that, there's this little thing called drones that we've seen repeatedly in Ukraine, where there's a reason why, both on the Ukrainian side and the Russian side, They don't mass, they try to avoid getting groups of 10 or more soldiers in one place. Why? Because they become targets for drones. So, I mean, this is just sheer madness. How meaningful are U.S. FAD missiles and Patriot missiles available to defend U.S. assets in the Gulf and to defend Israel?

we're depleted, we're out. I mean, if they're, we no longer, we don't longer have a supply that could respond to a sustained attack. You know, I, I, I'm not making up the numbers. The numbers are in the defense budget every year. So, and we know at least what's in open source. I know there are some people out there thinking, oh, no, the United States is secretly building lots of these.

No, they're not. So the total number of that, as of January 1st, 2025, was 900. Now, understand that if they're used in an attack, when there's an attack of a ballistic missile, they're going to fire two of those. Now, they're expensive, 12 to 13 million apiece. So, but nonetheless, that means if all 900, if there had never been a single one fired since they've been produced as of January, that means they'd be capable of taking down 450 missiles

because you fire two at every incoming Iranian ballistic missile. Well, Iran since February 28 has fired 640 ballistic missiles. So do the math. If they fired all those, they've depleted it. The same on the Patriot side. And I do know that at one of our bases in Persian Gulf, that the missile supply was absolutely depleted. They didn't have, you know, we're out.

And so this is, for all practical purposes, the United States no longer has a sufficient supply of THAAs, and patriots to deal with an actual missile threat. But again, the other thing we've discovered is they're pretty ineffective anyway. These young reservists that were killed at American, American reservists that were killed at American bases in the Gulf, were they adequately defended? No, no. In fact, they were put into the structure they were in was basically a soft roof.

So, you know, you could have. you can harden the walls, but if you're not in a hardened, protected bunker, you're vulnerable. You know, the same, you know, we've seen the breakdown in security across the region. The footage appeared online over the weekend of a base up in Iraq near Irville, and the drone just was flying throughout the base, looking for a target and finally found one boom. The U.S. has suffered significant casualties of personnel in Iraq from these attacks. Same in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis appear, you know, they basically told it looks like they've

told the United States, look, you're on your own, we're out of this. Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirate, they're getting hit as well. So the initial claim, I know, I know for a fact that the U.S. military believed at the outset of this, that our personnel and bases in the Gulf would be just fine, that our air defense was superb, and we would knock down anything that Iran sent. And that turned out not to be true. In fact, there's the one video of this drone, relatively slow-flying drone,

that took out one of the radars. You know, at least it was a half-a-billion-dollar radar, if not a billion-dollar radar, with a $50,000 drone, boom. Boom. So Israel is claiming it as air superiority over Iran. President Trump has made the same claim. But can Israel match Iran's missile superiority?

No, no. Israel's got some, they do have some missiles. that are capable of delivering nuclear weapons, yes, but they don't have the volume of what Iran has. And look, this is the thing people fail to appreciate. Israel is tiny. It's not big. You know, population between 7 and 10 million.

Its population is concentrated in two cities. Isn't it about the size of New Jersey? Yeah, yeah. Okay. And so it's concentrated in Haifa and Tel Aviv. Iran is gigantic by comparison. So let's just assume, you know, I did some calculations last night. And it's crude and, you know, people in sharpshoot it all they want. But let's just assume that Israel and Iran have the same amount of weapons,

of missiles and bombs. And they drop them on each other every day. How long it would it take for Iran to saturate Israel, vice Israel saturating Iran? Well, Iran can saturate Israel at that pace, if you're assuming 2,000-pound bombs, 50 a day, in three years. For Israel to saturate Iran, it would take two and a half centuries. Okay? So that's the difference. And that Iran's in a much better position to absorb punishment than Israel is.

So this is, you know, Israel does not have what would be called strategic depth. It did they have a great capability to launch an initial attack? Yes. What's one of the most interesting things, it looks like we're learning. that Mossad had run a masterful intelligence operation in recruiting the very top guy of the IRGC, of a general named Ishmael Kani. Mossad recruited an Iranian general? Yeah, yeah.

And Connie, because Connie turns out had this reputation that he would be at all these meetings, like he was at the meeting with Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. And then, oh, hey, listen, got to go. I got another thing to attend to. So he leaves like 10 to 15 minutes before the place is hit with bombs. The same happened last June. And then the same happened on February 28th. So he was quickly identified as having been a major source for helping Israel.

And, you know, I think this helps explain why there was some confidence on the part of the United States in Israel that all they had to do was decapitate. And then they're going to be able to take over Iran because this General Kakhani was willing to help lead the opposition. Well, apparently he's dead. So, you know, this war is now unfolding in a way that the United States and Israel, they no longer have control of it. Does Trump understand that he no longer has control? And can we expect you used this phrase once before, the long knives to come out? Well, the long knives are out.

Trump does not, he does not understand he doesn't want to hear. He reportedly has pushed away J.D. Vance, as well as Tulsi Gabbard, who have tried to, you know, present the opposite case. He's listening to people who are telling that, oh, yeah, we've got this under control, the worry. It's just a matter of time. Iran is failing, even though they're not. And we see the long night that's coming out.

There's this recent article in the Wall Street Journal. It may have been today that described how Trump had been warned specifically about, oh, listen, the Iranians can close the straight of Homoos, and it's going to create all these economic problems. So the fact that there are articles being published saying Trump was briefed. he knew. Many have asked, was this an example of the CIA failing to tell Trump the truth, or is it that Trump rejected it? And I think it's the latter. And one of the pieces of evidence we have for that is the National Intelligence Council assessment that was provided to Trump the week before he launched the war. And they're saying, you know, you're not going to overthrow

the Iranian regime. So this is, as we start seeing these articles coming out, it's just a reminder that those in the intelligence community and senior military level that warned you were facing a potential disaster, they're not going to be left holding the bag. You know, they're going to, they don't want to be scapegoated. They're going to make sure that the blame falls on Trump. He just ordered Secretary Hegsseth,

to order 2,200 Marines to the region. What are they going to do? Die. This is number one, if you say, how are you going to employ them? Okay, well, they're not, most of the Marines are not airborne trained. So they land amphibiously. If you're going to get them on a ship that would land at Carg Island, as the example, how does that ship get through the Strait of Hornets?

Hormuz, number one. Or ostensibly, you can try to land them on the shores around the Strait of Hormuz. We're not talking an area that's five miles wide. We're talking an area that's about 1,600 miles long. So maybe you put one Marine every mile. Yeah, that'll work out. Now, this is just desperation. Flexing, and it's not even flexing muscle.

because, again, a 2,200 Marine Expeditionary Unit, the Mew, this is not a mission that is designed to carry out. And, again, they've not learned the lesson that have come out of the war in Ukraine, that FPV drones give the defending army a dramatic advantage in dealing with anybody that's trying to attack offensively. And the attackers would have to be equally equipped with that, which the United States is not. How could Trump get out of this? He would have to do what he's incapable of doing. Admit that he's wrong because he's going to have to make concessions to Iran. Iran's not going to surrender.

People forget that the, you know, within the, the sheep, the sheep, the sheep, The Shi branch of Islam has this Imam Hussein as sort of their, you know, founding story. And the Imam Hussein went out to fight. He had 70 men. He went out to fight an army of 3,000. He and his soldiers were deprived of water for three days. And they fought and they ultimately all died. but it was seen as a holy sacrifice.

And that mentality is resident among many of the Iranian military officers and political people as well. I mean, it's not just something they pay lip service to. They genuinely believe it and are inspired by it. So Iran is going, you know, they're fighting to say, their country. And whenever you encounter fighters who are, you know, waging a war of, to prevent extinction, you find it's a very difficult, if not impossible task. There's an interesting comment from the Iranian foreign minister yesterday on CBS. Chris, number seven.

48 hours before the U.S. strikes happened. You had personally offered two President Trump's negotiators to take that 440 kilo amount of 60% enriched material and to dilute it. You said Iran was ready to give that material away. This was in the deal that was also presented to Vice President Vance by Oman. Today, is Iran still willing to let go of that enriched uranium? Well, that was one of the elements of a deal that we were negotiating with our, you know, American interlocutors. That element dealt with the question of Iran's 60% enriched material. And I said, I offered actually that we are ready to dilute those enriched material or downblend them, as they say, into lower percentage. So that was a, you know, a big offer, a big concern.

in order to prove that Iran has never wanted weapons and would never want them. Are you willing to give that up now? Well, there is nothing on the table right now. Everything depends on the future. If any time in the future we decide to enter into negotiation with the US or other interlocutors, you know, we may decide what to put on the table. For the time being, nothing is on the paper. You can't blame him, Larry.

Hey, they've been burned twice. You know, the old saying, you know, full me once, shame on you, full me twice, shame on me. Right. Well, they got full twice. You know, they got the bamboozled last June. And then here they got bamboozled in a nuclear fashion by the United States. So now they've got no interest in negotiating with.

Trump. And so this comes back. What can Trump do? Look, they talk about opening the straight of Hormuz, and I saw one of the people watching or commenting claimed, oh, the Marines are just going to take Kark Island and we're going to force Iran to give up the straight. No, that's not going to happen. You know, you can't even get the Marines there, number one. But even if they got there, they would be killed. And it would not, you know, it would be a disaster. Let's call it a Persian Gulf version. of Diembian poo, that happened to the French, where they got wiped out by the Vietnamese. This, as long as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and the Iranians are allowing some ships through.

Chinese, sure, come on through. Reportedly, they're going to allow oil go to India, but they made it very clear. Any oil that's going to Israel, would go to Israel, would go to Europe, would go to the United States, it shall not pass. And the economic consequences of this are not going to go away easily. Because it's not

just the disruption of the oils, the disruption of the natural gas. Taiwan, for example, now reportedly only has a six-day supply remaining of natural gas, and it's out. So they're going to have to shut down

some of their chip factories, which is going to have a dramatic economic impact. And they don't have it, they don't, there's not an easy solution. They can't just, you know, call up the United States and say, hey, send us some natural gas. Even if the United States wanted to do it, it'd take a while. You've got to load the tankers.

You've got to sailor to cross the Pacific. So Taiwan is going to be in a real dilemma. It's planting season in the north. 35% of the fertilizer that would be needed. It's not on market now. So, and, you know, when you don't put fertilizer on the ground, the crops don't grow. And when it comes time to harvest, you're not harvesting food. And then you've got a food crisis, which is six to eight months away.

So this, you know, Iran's got enormous leverage right now. And the U.S. is pretending that it, oh, these oil prices, they're going to come. down quick. No, they're not. And as the full economic impact of this, the raises gas prices, as Americans are paying now $2 more per gallon by the end of this month, they're already, diesel fuel is up over $2. So the diesel fuel impact, look at all the trucks that carry items, you know, the stock grocery stores and different businesses, that means the prices of all those goods, they're going to go up.

So we're going to get an inflationary spike that the Trump administration wasn't counting on. Thank you, Larry. Great analysis, my dear friend. I know you've been busy. Thank you for all the time you give us. We look forward to seeing you on Friday with the roundtable. Absolutely.

Thank you. All the best. Have a great day. Coming up at 10 o'clock this morning, if you're watching us live in 30 minutes, Professor Jeffrey Sachs. At 11 this morning, Larry's compadre on the Intelligence Community Roundtable, Ray McGovern. At 1.30 this afternoon, one of the country's foremost authorities on Iran, Trita Parcy, from the Quincy Institute. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.