Judging Freedom - Larry Johnson : US Running Out of Oil

Episode Date: September 21, 2026

Larry Johnson : US Running Out of OilSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Undeclared wars are commonplace. Pragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes to love your country you had to alter or abolish the government? the government. What if Jefferson was right? What if that government is best, which governs least?

What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now? Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for judging freedom. Today is Monday, September 21st, 2006, my dear friend and longtime collaborator, Larry Johnson, joins us now from Moscow. Larry, it's a pleasure. Thank you very much for accommodating my schedule. I want to talk to you about what you've been writing about very extensively lately, which is the rapidly dwindling supply of diesel jet fuel and kerosene, in the United States, is the demand for diesel, jet fuel, and kerosene outstripping the ability

to deliver those fuels? Yes, short answer is yes, and Donald Trump blaming this on both Ukraine and Russia is absolutely ridiculous. Let's just put the numbers in perspective. Russia produces about 9.4 million barrels of oil a day. Of that 9 million, about 7.3 million is what's known as sour crude. That's the oil that has a high sulfur content. It is out of that oil that you'll produce diesel. Now, the Trump's claim is that, oh, because the Ukrainians have attacked the refineries in Russia,

that Russia is no longer able to export the amount of diesel that it was previously. Well, right now, the global consumption of diesel is about 28 to 29 million barrels a day. Russia exports 150,000 barrels per day. In other words, almost one half of 1% of the global supply. In other words, a meaningless number. Russia exports oil, the high sulfur oil that can be used in other refineries in China, in India, in South Korea, in Japan. Used to be in the United States, but no longer,

they can be used to produce the diesel. But in terms of Russian diesel exports, it's inconsequential, it's meaningless. What you have is a shortage of that high sulfur oil that comes out of the Persian Gulf. And that is what has created this global shortage There's no other way to get around it, but a global shortage of both diesel and aviation fuel. And that global shortage, of course, has been radically exacerbated by the destruction caused by the Houthis in Saudi Arabia in the past two weeks.

Chris, do you have that map that shows the red X's on it, so that Larry and I are. on the same page. There you go. So we know about the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is controlling that. The X in the lower left hand corner is Bob al-Mandeb. That formerly under control of Saudi Arabia no longer. The X in the middle of Saudi Arabia represents either the destruction or the Saudi closure of its own crude oil east-west pipeline. This is having, well, I need you to answer for me. This must be having a radical effect on the ability of Saudi Arabia, A, to earn money, B, to still have respectability in that part of the world. See to get oil.

Previously, until that pipeline went down, the Saudis were able to export about four million barrels a day, maybe close to 5 million barrels. But all that oil was going up through the Suez Canal. Now, it is a high sulfur. You know, they differentiate between high sulfur, low sulfur, if it's like 0.5% or higher, it's considered sour crude. And that requires special processing in a special,

in a refinery specifically designed. to, if you will, shake, bake and cook the sour crude. That was still about only 40% of what the Saudis would normally supply. So it was helping, but it wasn't a game changer for the world. With the destruction of that pipeline last week, and it's still not clear if that was done by the Houthis or what's known as the Iraqi resistance. The bottom line is that pipeline is dead.

It's not going to come back to life for at least another six weeks. So that's one more. Let me just interrupt you, Larry. You're talking about the East-West crude oil pipeline going from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. That is closed, correct? Larry, did we lose you? Yeah, I'm back now. I lost the last part of what you said.

Okay. You're talking about the East-West pipeline from the Persian Gulf of the Red Sea. That is not working now. Correct. Right. And it's not going to be working for at least another six weeks. So what you have is a permanent, let's call it at least for the foreseeable future, there is going to be a global shortage of diesel and aviation fuel.

When that sour crude gets into a refinery, the refineries have to. to make a choice. Are we going to make diesel or are we going to make aviation fuel? They can't do both at the same time. They can do one or the other. And so this is, you know, previously the United States was it was a net importer of the sour crude. It doesn't have any way to make that up right now.

Is, well, on Thursday, Trump apparently. decided to attack the Houthis and gave orders to the military to prepare for that. Yesterday, he changed this mind and decided against it. What is your understanding of the lack of willingness of the Trump administration to help its friends the Saudis? Yeah. Listen, the Saudis are going around with their hat and hand begging, looking for help, and they're not getting it from anywhere. And frankly, there's nothing the United States could do militarily that's going to stop the Houthis. We've tried that once a year ago, May in 2025. We'd had Operation Rough Rider where the United States tried to, oh,

open up the Red Sea to freedom of navigation. And despite repeated bombings in the presence of two aircraft carriers, we failed. We declared victory went home. Now any attempt to go after the Houthis again is simply going to lead to an expansion of the war with the Houthis attacking the Saudis. And the Saudis, frankly, not having the military strength to defeat the Houthis. So this is, and it looked like Trump was going to do it, but I think he got enough advice from within that he backed away once again, which is, you know, I think at least smart on his part,

because all he'd do is if he launched that attack, he would exacerbate, he would further damage the stock market and increase the price of oil further inflaming inflation. What kind of damage did the Houthis do to Jordan? Well, I don't think the Houthis could do much to Jordan. They don't have the same ballistic missile capability that the Iranians do. But I think Iran is ready that if the Houthis are attacked, Iran will retaliate against U.S. military. basis if the U.S. participates in such an attack. Here's President Trump's, you know, he's suffering terribly.

Apparently he has told his inner circle that he expects the Republicans to lose badly in the midterms. So here's the kind of nonsense that he puts out. This is yesterday, or last night, actually, gas prices were much higher under Biden than under Trump. So were almost all other prices, President D.JT. This, of course, is not only not true, but the average Joe knows that it is not true. Right.

No, you're absolutely correct. People, listen, people don't care. Was this cause because of Russia and Ukraine? I mean, that's a lie. Or was it caused because the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the United States attacked Iran? They're not geography experts. All they know is that when they go to the gas station, they're paying a lot more. I note that when I left the United States, when I left Florida on the 5th of September,

the price of diesel in Florida in my town was $5.52 a gallon. As of three days ago, that price was now $6. 49 cents. It's up almost a dollar in two weeks. And the odds are that in another two or three weeks, it's going to be up another dollar. This is, and here's the dilemma for Trump. There is absolutely nothing he can do by intervention, whether militarily or economically, that is going to bring the price of gasoline and diesel down. There is now a baked-in shortage that is part of the supply chain, the refineries, and as well as the actual supply of oil. It is a problem that is not going to be solved anytime soon. That if, let's just assume that Trump gets the straight of hermuse open and Bob I'mandab open tomorrow, you're still not going to see potentially any relief until January at the earliest.

Wow. Well, no wonder he's privately quaking over the electoral defeat that appears to be coming in seven weeks. Colonel McGregor sent a piece to you and me in which sources told him that he, The United States Air Force assets are being maneuvered into position so as to suggest another serious invasion by the U.S. of Iran after the midterm. So you're hearing the same thing? Yeah, the military is confused. They keep getting contradictory orders.

They were three days ago, they were standing up. They fully expected to be back engaged. with a military attack. And then all of a sudden, boom, Trump again reversed himself apparently yesterday or, or let's see, today's Monday, so it was either yesterday Sunday or late on Saturday. So this moving these forces around, and I've heard indirectly for people

who've talked to their friends who are still active duty, They have no clue what's going on. They're as confused probably as the Iranians with respect to what is Donald Trump and the United States going to do. You have been in Russia for a couple of weeks now. I was happy to have joined you during your first week there. You went to St. Petersburg and now you're back in Moscow. What thoughts do you have being in Russia during national?

elections, Larry. Yeah. You know, you keep hearing the real irony is someone like Kayakalas of the European Union. Someone who is not, let me emphasize, not

democratically elected, she was appointed by other members of the European Union. Criticizing Russia is not having democratic elections, even though there were 10 different political parties that participated.

I had an opportunity yesterday to observe some of the final last days of the election. And I'll note that Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on Russia, particularly on the Moscow region, to try to disrupt the elections. Now, that said, I didn't hear a damn thing. And when I woke up in the morning and heard that there had been these over 1,600 drones launched, I could see some smoke on, you know, some smoke drifting over out near the buildings where I was located. But then I spent the day driving around Moscow, east, west, north and south on various interviews and such. It didn't see anything.

So the attack failed. Then you had a cyber attack on the polling stations. That failed. But you had a competitive election. There were volunteers out for all of the different political parties. Nobody was being picked up and hauled off to jail. And, you know, you had the second largest vote getter was the old Communist Party headed by Gennessee. Nadi Zhuginov, and I've had the chance to interview him previously, interesting old guy,

but he's got a number of young supporters. So it's just simply to say that Russia has a viable democracy. I've spoken with several of the international observers that came to watch that election. people from Lebanon, from Ireland, from Greece, from Argentina, from Spain, from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. And also that they were very, very impressed with what they saw, that it was well organized, that it was efficient. And hey, this is an election system Donald Trump should love. You're required to have an ID in order to vote. You've got to have an ID.

Very, very interesting. How cold and horrific a winter is in store for Ukraine? If general winter comes, as it did in November and December of 1941, when the Nazis tried to take Moscow, it is going to be really, really bad. bad. I think you will see the people abandoning Kiev trying to go to LeViv or other towns outside. I got to tell you, yesterday I was taken on a tour of a World War II museum. It's a private museum. One of the, an oligarch, you know, one of the wealthy capitalists in Russia, he decided instead of collecting cars or, you know, collecting exotic works of art, he bought, he actually bought every single variety of tank that Russia produced or used in World War, from World War I up

through World War II and into the modern era. And these are tanks that actually work. So I saw a Sherman tank that the United States provided under Len Lease. I also sat in the Sherman tank. It was used in the movie Fury with Brad Pitt. And then I got to sit in a T-34 that had a functioning engine and they let me start the engine. I didn't drive out of the barn. but where this museum is located was literally the front line that separated the Nazis and the Soviets during the Battle of Moscow in December of 1941.

So that was really something special. Well, Larry, some of your fans who watch the show and who write to us during the show are complaining bitterly that they don't recognize you without. one of you, call me Bahamahma's shirts. Are they legal in Russia? They are. I left one back at my hotel room. The other one I gave to, as you know, gave to Sergei LeVroff. He accepted it, though, when he hit his word to me, when I told him, giving him the shirt, he goes, is it used?

And I said, no, no, it's brand new. It's brand new. So hopefully we'll get to see Foreign Minister LeVroff wearing one of my Florida shirts. You know, I was there when he said to you, is it used? And I took that as the highest compliment for you, because that means he has seen you on air wearing these unique shirts. I'm being charitable by calling you unique. You gave me one. I can't imagine wearing it, but you'd have to twist my arm.

Well, you'll have to have to do it maybe for the Intelligence Roundtable on Friday. All right. We'll be back in the good old U.S. of A on Friday. Larry, you'll be back with us on Friday. Yes, I'll be there with the shirt on. All right. Safe travels, my dear man. Thank you for this analysis. Your first person observations are of great value and great interest to our audience. Thank you, Larry. Safe travels. We'll see you Friday. Thanks, Judge. Sure. coming up later today if you're watching us live in 39 minutes at 10 o'clock on all of this

Scott Ritter at 2 o'clock Janine Yunus Max Blumenthal's lawyer as he tries to get back what the feds stole from him and at 3 o'clock what will prime minister Netanyahu who preach to the UN and who will bother listening to him when he talks on Wednesday. Who else? Professor Jeffrey Sachs. Justice Napolitano for judging freedom.