Judging Freedom - Live from Ukraine - Matt VanDyke, Sons of LIberty Int_l

Episode Date: December 12, 2022

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Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, December 12th, 2022. It's about 1140 in the morning here on a snowy, early snowstorm east coast of the United States. to our audience Matt Van Dyke is the founder and leader of Sons of Liberty International, a group of former American military and intel physically present in Ukraine who helped train Ukrainian troops to resist the Russian invasion. Matt it's a pleasure. Welcome back to the show. So the last time, since the last time you were on, how have things been going? We are learning in the U.S. and from a variety of sources that the Russians are aggressively pounding infrastructure in and around Kyiv. And there are times when you have no electricity, no heat, and no hot water. And of course, we're midway through December, so winter's coming. Give us a feel for what your group is going through, what the people you train are going through, and what the average Ukrainian civilians are going through. Well, at the beginning of the targeting of the infrastructure, the Ukrainian government tried to produce a scheduled blackout. So you'd have electricity for a few hours each

day. You could look up the schedule for your neighborhood. That seems to have been largely abandoned. The blackouts come randomly. Sometimes you might have electricity almost all day, then other days, not at all. On average, maybe a third to a half of the day you'll have electricity in a few hour periods at a time. It started snowing here quite a lot. There's usually snow on the ground here. It's already gotten cold. What's really tough is people that live in apartment buildings. We're fortunate that we have a house so we can turn on the house's generator when we have to, but people live in apartment buildings. They don't have elevators working. They don't

have water because the pumps can't pump the water up. So they very quickly turn into primitive conditions whenever there's a power outage. What's your feel for how the war is going? In the West, the press which favors Ukraine indicates one day it's good, one day it's bad. They push the Russians out of Kyrgyzstan. Did they leave for some strategic reason? Are 500,000 more Russian troops about to come? President Putin will use whatever means are at his disposal to win. What's your feel from the ground?

I feel that most people are overly optimistic about how quickly this war will be over. They think the Kharkiv can be repeated, the northern offensive that went so well with the Russians routing, I think that was a one-off. A lot of those units were undermanned and had poor morale at the time, and once one routed, the rest routed. I don't think that'll be repeated. The withdrawal from Kyrgyzstan was very organized. Ukraine wasn't able to hit them much as they did the withdrawal. It shows that the Russians are planning for the long haul. I'm concerned that Ukraine won't push an offensive strong enough in the winter and give time for Russia to get back on its feet by spring. More conscripts will be brought up. They have time to produce more ammunition. So that's the main concern, that rather than push now when they have all the advantages over the Russians, including warm weather gear and logistics and fuel and so on, that they'll delay too long. And we don't want Russia to get back

on its feet. Have you changed your attitude? I mean, this is the first time that I have heard either, I'll use some strong words, but I can dial them back, fear or skepticism or criticism with respect to the Ukrainian effort. Your prior comments on our previous shows have been more positive. It's not criticism. It's concern that I would like to see things moving faster in winter when they can. Normally winter is a time that wars slow down, but Ukraine cannot afford to have that happen now. When the ground freezes is when they can get vehicles moving forward. The spring thaw produces a lot of mud that makes movement difficult and would make an offensive difficult. And right now the Russians don't even have warm

weather clothing for their soldiers and Ukraine does. So now's the time they should be moving forward. I've always had a belief that this war will go on for two or three years. I still hold that belief. But it's very clear what Putin is doing. He's buying time, hoping that the coalition in the West will fall apart. You know, a few elections in Europe or the United States go a certain way and NATO support for Ukraine could drive pretty quick. So he's buying time, same thing that he did when he propped up Assad in Syria, buy time until the coalition falls apart and just outlasts the opponent,

and hopefully Ukraine won't let that happen. Have you encountered, either in uniform or out of uniform, troops on the ground in Ukraine that are not Ukrainian, that are on the side of Ukraine, whether they're American or French or Polish? No, I still haven't seen anybody. Anybody who is is just a veteran who's out of their service. He's over here volunteering. And what are the Sons of International doing? I mean, do you handle American military equipment similar to what you all handled when you were active duty and you train Ukrainian soldiers how to use it? And if that's the case, don't they have their own people

to train them how to use it? Right. We train them on a variety of weapons, everything from small arms, anti-tank weapons, and everything in between. Really, they have equipment now, but they don't have trainers. The groups that we train, in most cases, they would receive no tactical training before their deployments. We've trained groups at least two occasions that days after we train them is when they have their first deployment. So they get some shooting instructions, sometimes some medical, but a lot of times they don't get the tactical training they need and that's where we step in. What kind of an onslaught do you or your Ukrainians with whom you speak expect from the Russians during the winter, before the muddy spring? I really just expect Russia to secure its defenses and work on building its supply lines to what they need to be for the spring. They have conscripts coming in. They need to train.

They're trying to get their industrial production up. They can manufacture artillery shells and small arms, pretty much the key components of the Russian way of warfare. So they're going to entrench themselves, be on the defensive, especially after withdrawal from Kherson on the left bank of the river. And they're going to let Ukraine go on the defensive and go on the offensive while the Russians stay on defense. But eventually the Russians are probably going to make a move and try to grab more territory. But right now, it's really we'll see what happens in the spring. What do you say to you probably haven't listened to them, but because you've got other things to do. But what do you say to people like Scott Ritter or Colonel Douglas McGregor, who have argued, I think persuasively on this program, that the Russian resources are almost limitless compared to Ukraine,

both manpower and equipment, and it's only a matter of time before Russia prevails, that Putin did make some mistakes initially, but now is prepared for all-out warfare. And the Ukrainians, without the active assistance, the physical assistance of NATO, don't have the manpower or the equipment to resist all-out warfare from the Russian army. I still don't really understand that belief. It's clear that NATO has made a stand here, the United States has made a stand here. You know, it would be disastrous for the West if they were to lose this war to Russia. I mean, Putin is correct that this is a war of Russia versus NATO in a way through the proxy of Ukraine.

NATO is not going to lose this. All the investment in this war so far would be thrown away if the West were to back off Ukraine. So it's pretty clear. Aren't about 300,000 more Russian troops. These are not conscripts or prisoners. These are National Guards. So they've already been trained. Aren't they about to arrive?

And isn't that almost overwhelming compared to what remains of the Ukrainian army? We just had our power outage. Can you still see me? All right. Well, no, we can't see you, but we can hear you. Go ahead. Were you able to hear the question I just put to you about 300,000 Russian troops? Yes, yes, I heard the question. You know, it's a concern, but really the Ukrainians have the weapons equipment experience so far. They have quite a large army.

They have the ability to conscript and expand their forces also. They've made it since the beginning of the war that men are not allowed to leave the country. So there is a waiting pool of recruits ready to go to match what Russia can bring to the field. Yes, Russia is a larger population. In theory, they can field more men, but they also have an ammunition limit. Their industrial capacity cannot match what the West can get into Ukraine. So, you know, is it going to be a war of attrition? To an extent, but not entirely. I mean, the factor of sanctions, the factor of industrial capacity of Russia, all these things make it that

you can't just look at the numbers of one side versus the other and draw a conclusion. And we've seen that Russia is a paper tiger. Everything we thought about Russia... Wait, wait, wait. What do you mean? Hang on just one second. If you've just tuned in, we're speaking with Matt Van Dyke from Kiev, where they've just had a power failure. So it's Matt's voice that you hear, but obviously you don't see him. And I appreciate all of you who are staying with the program. Now, Matt, what do you mean Russia is a paper tiger? Putin's new general is a butcher, hardly a paper tiger. This was considered the second greatest military in the world.

And it's gotten trounced by Ukraine. We saw Ukrainian allegedly drone attacks. It's not clear if they were drones, strike Russian airfields in Russian territory where their nuclear bombers are without being intercepted by Russian air defenses. Russia's been bluffing for a long time, I think not only in its conventional capability, but also on its actual functional nuclear capability. Really, I think it's time that the West presses this forward, deals with Russia. Russia is a destabilizing force in the international community. And I don't think that the fears of Russia are founded. And I think we've seen that.

All the power is back. Okay. We see you. We see you smiling. Tell me about other Americans you've encountered. Have you encountered American military outside of, or not outside, but not wearing uniforms on the ground in Ukraine? No, I haven't. I haven't encountered any, and I don't think it would be necessary. All the advising of the higher level Ukrainian

leadership can be done remotely. Really, Ukrainians are the ones doing the fighting on the ground. But America is sending billions of dollars worth of equipment there. Is the Biden administration relying on people like you to teach the Ukrainians how to use this equipment? It doesn't have Americans there showingians how to use this equipment? It doesn't have Americans there showing them how to use American equipment? Well, they're taking some Ukrainians outside of the country, training them in the UK and parts of Europe, and then sending them back, particularly for the sophisticated

systems like HIMARS, that training is done outside the country. Should there be more trainers here? Yes, but that would involve sending NATO on the ground to do the training. Are you as positive in your belief about an eventual Ukrainian victory today as you were a few months ago? I'm positive about a Ukrainian victory. The timetable may be even longer than what I initially thought of two or three years. It really depends on what happens this winter. It's a pivotal moment in this war. Will the absence of heat, hot water, and electricity diminish the support of civilians for the Zelensky government? Not in year one, maybe in year two or year three. That's one of the, you know, it's a democracy. Russia doesn't have to worry about that. Russia's intent is to break the will of the Ukrainian people and have them put political

pressure on the leadership, maybe to come to a solution. But Ukrainian morale and belief in victory is still very high, and I don't see any sign of Ukrainian people breaking anytime soon. And is President Zelensky still popular amongst the Ukrainian people? Yes, very popular. Okay, Matt, you draw a large crowd. You can't see the comments that people write. They're pretty colorful, as you can imagine. You know, this is a libertarian show, and McGregor and Ritter are very popular. We may have you on with Scott Ritter at the same time so the two of you can go toe-to-toe. How about that, Matt Van Dyke?

No problem, anytime. Okay. So stay well. We appreciate you coming on. Thanks for staying with us during that momentary pause in electricity and all the best to you and your team. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom.