Judging Freedom - Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer : Can NATO Handle Defeat?

Episode Date: May 16, 2024

Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer : Can NATO Handle Defeat?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, May 16th, 2024. Apologies for late start, internet gremlins, but our, our guest is worth waiting for my longtime friend and colleague and collaborator, Lieutenant Colonel Tony Schaefer, Colonel Schaefer. Always a pleasure, my dear friend.

Welcome back to the show. Thanks, Judd. It's good to be here. Sorry. I was a little bit delayed. No, no,

no worries. The team knows you're worth waiting for. Is there any question in your mind, Colonel Schaefer, but that Ukraine will lose this war and will lose it badly and will lose it soon? The war has not gone as we were told it would. Some of us judged from day one said, unless there was some outside support, as in troops, manpower, Ukraine would not win. The numbers were just never there. I'm just tired of being told because I'm critical of our policy. I'm somehow anti-Ukrainian. I'm not anti-Ukrainian people.

I'm anti-corruption. I'm anti-stupid war. And the moment that best captures the complete ineptitude of this administration, the Biden administration, was Tony Blinken being in Kiev on stage singing Keep On Rocking in the Free World, sounding like a Second City TV skit. I mean, he can't sing. And singing the Neil Young anti-war song, completely oblivious to the fact that the song

was about the George W. Bush involvement in war and using American might, foreign power, military power over everything else and neglecting domestic politics. Not knowing you were going to go there, but we have a surprise for you. Now, we can't play the song because of copyright issues. But here is the Secretary of State of the United States of America in a basement speakeasy somewhere in Kyiv, Ukraine, two nights ago. The United States is with you. So much of the world is with you. And they're fighting not just for a free Ukraine, but for the free world. And the free world is with you too. So maybe we can try something that's all we we can really play without getting into a copyright hassle but your point is well taken he's not a musician he's demeaning uh the office he didn't understand the song they were

playing he was expressing in that song a sentiment which is absolutely contrary to what he's been saying on the public stage for three years. Yeah, exactly. And so that moment encapsulated the complete failure of the Biden policy. They don't understand. They don't care to understand. They're going to do stupid virtue signaling things that they think. And by the way, C-SPAN was there. New York Times was there. That was not just some random, oh, let's go pick up a guitar and play. That was supposed to be their best footway put forward. And from the beginning, this is the way they function. And so at this point, and by the way, who believes Joe Biden will do anything appropriately based on the fact that Bob Gates even said Joe Biden's been on the wrong side of every foreign policy decision forever. aid showing up out of sync. There was never any concerted effort to put together the aid we're sending them to a strategy that actually would do something.

So in the end, we are probably, I mean, I'm trying to be realistic here, probably about three months from the fall of Kyiv. I think the Russians now are lining up Kharkiv. They've made immense progress, Judge, the past five days in Kharkiv, they've made immense progress, Judge, the past five days in Kharkiv because the barriers, the military barriers that were supposed to be built to slow

them down, oh, they were never built because of corruption. It's like, yeah, we've given them all this money. Go build barriers so we can slow the Russians down. So what do they call those pieces of go build barriers so we can sell the so what what do they call those uh uh pieces of big chunks of cement that are shaped like a pyramid tiger's teeth

something to stop this is a term for them yeah they were used okay so colonel mcgregor sent me a photograph of hundreds of these things thrown on the side of the road they weren't even installed we paid for them we bought road. They weren't even installed. We paid for them. We bought them. And they weren't even installed.

There wasn't even an attempt to use them. No. That's my point, is that those are military obstacles, essentially. Right. What you're supposed to do, and Doug would support me. He's an infantry guy. I'm not, but I had to study the stuff as a military intelligence guy. You set up fixed barriers you set up fixed obstacles with some sort of cover fire so that when the enemy comes up on it you can shoot them because it slows them down you

can't stop them but you slow them down none of that was done nothing right so within like one day they picked up like 120 kilometers which is like patent level moving forward. And is there fighting? No doubt there's fighting. And I'm not trying to mean the bravery of soldiers on your side. I'm just saying that there's no way they're going to stop a million man plus military on the Russian side that is prepared to go all the way, and they're going to go all the way. And I think all the way in this case is the Dnieper River. I think they're going to get to the Dnieper, and they're going to sit there and say, what do we want to do next? Because there's just no military force that's going to hold them back. Sarkozy, Sarkozy's been walked back.

NATO will not come in. NATO, you know, the French president tried to say, oh, we're going to send troops in. It's like, and he was bashed by the rest of NATO. At this point, there is no options left. The only thing Blinken was there to do, Judge, and this is what they're hoping for, they, the Biden administration, is that the inevitable fall of Ukraine comes after the 4th of November. That's what this is all about. I think you're right.

But in fairness to the Secretary of State, we showed him in his blue jeans Tuesday night. Here he is in his business suit Tuesday morning. Assistance is on the way, number 14. But watch this, Tony, because you have a good eye for television. This is a produced statement. There are three cameras in this meeting room in Ukraine, including a jib, you know, the camera that floats down. You're familiar with this. There are more cameras making Tony Blinken look good in this clip we're about to show you

than Joe Biden has on him or even Donald Trump had on him when they're talking from the East Room of the White House. Cut number 14. The assistance is now on the way. Some of it's already arrived. More of it will be arriving. And that's going to make a real difference against the ongoing Russian aggression on the battlefield. And we're determined, along with many other partners for Ukraine, to make sure that you succeed on the battlefield. We're equally determined that over time Ukraine stands strongly on its own feet – militarily, economically, democratically, a strong, successful, thriving, free Ukraine

is the best possible rebuke to Putin and the best possible guarantor for your future. And for all of that, the United States is and will remain a committed partner. Can he possibly mean what he says? If he does, he's woefully ignorant of the facts. And if he doesn't mean what he says, then he's lying. He's lying, Judge. They all lie. I mean, this is I don't know how anybody would take anything said by any Biden official serious at this point. And by the way, a quick aside back on the song real quick on Rockin' in the Free World. Did you know that Tony Blanken's nickname in college when he was in his college band was Spanky Banana?

Did you know that? I just wanted to throw that in there. Somebody, not you, somebody came across that and told me the other day. I'm just saying my point to this is there's nothing real about this administration. It's all about virtue signaling. It's all about imagery. And like you said, in that one shot, you had three cameras. They're all being coordinated.

I've produced TV before. I produced a TV series called National Geographic's Chain of Command. I've been in a room where they set up the cameras. I've been on both sides of the camera, both as an actor and a producer. So it was well produced, but completely bereft of any content that was worth videotaping. It's the same thing we've been told over and over. Oh, the next wonder weapon's going to do it. The F-16s are on the way. They're going to be

there. Man, oh man, those Russians are going to really regret the day they came into Ukraine when those F-16s get there. It's all nonsense. This is all about trying to maintain the best face on a failed policy that's going to result in the death of tens

of thousands on both sides. I feel the pain of the Ukrainian people. Here's somebody who does not feel the pain of the Ukrainian people, and that's President Zelensky. Here's his response to what we just saw Secretary Blinken say, cut number 13. Thank you so much. Thanks for coming to Ukraine, especially these days. Not a simple period for Ukraine, and a tough period for the east of our country, for our warriors.

Thank you that you came, especially these days, to support Ukraine. we need, really, we need today two Patriots for Kharkiv, for Kharkiv region, because the people are under attack, civilians and warriors, everybody there under Russian missiles. What do you think he means when he says two batteries, Tony? Well, I think they, the Ukrainians, have been screaming for more Patriot missiles. Now, the Patriots are very effective against most ballistic missiles, both guided and unguided. The problem is this. Russians are within 17 miles of Kharkiv, so no amount of batteries of anything, except maybe some tactical counter battery fire that would be

able to kind of do artillery artillery on artillery there's no hope kharkiv is gone i don't know i can't give you the exact date it's going to fall but i'd say within the next week you're going to see essentially the encapsulation of kharkiv by the russians coming kind of isolating it from the rest of the country. So I just don't think that any batteries are going to do any good. So the Russians continue to pummel the infrastructure. I can't say what they're targeting. I don't have that information, but I can say that they are very much bumping up against the outskirts. 17 kilometers, you can use mortars almost at that range.

No battery is going to do any different. What are the signs we should look for, the behavior we should look for on the part of Ukrainian people, Ukrainian government, Ukrainian military, that defeat is imminent? Two things. Both of them reflect kind of what the Russians did. I mean, what the Nazis did at the end of World War II. Second, first one is, depending on wonder weapons, we've already seen that, just the next weapon is going to be that thing that breaks the back of the Russian advance.

There was all these wonder weapons that the Germans supposedly had that would stop the Russians and U.S. We were allied back then, and nothing ever stopped the inevitable move on the Nazi forces. I think the same thing can be said here. People are going to get upset, I know, about my comparison, but it is what it is. Secondly, they're going to be more desperate about manpower. One of the things I think there's been great debate about, about returning Ukrainian military aged men from other countries in the EU. There's a great deal of pressure on NATO members to kind of cough them up, which goes against all of the EU's humanitarian laws, saying that people have the right to be refugees

and not have to be forced into conscription or military service. Well, except for when they're needed for Ukraine. So I think they're going to get more and more desperate for manpower because that's really what they're seeking. And as an extension on the manpower issue, I think you're going to see more and more military units not being willing to show up for the inevitable pummeling they're going to get if they actually have to face the Russians

in the conditions that they're currently facing. Chris is going to post a map showing the red is the area totally under Russian control. What are Putin's goals? Does he want to go much farther? I don't think, the goal is pretty clear. And as he and Lavrov have said several times, they want to have essentially control of Ukraine as much as they need to ensure that what they have they can maintain, and that other areas cannot be used to launch attacks into Russia. There's been attacks into a number of places up near Chernobyl, into Russia, that they've done attacks there. So I think you're talking about the potential

of military operations to secure border areas, which have been used to launch attacks against Russia, against Russian civilians. So that's where you may see an expansion of the war, as well as going after and trying to destroy any element of Ukraine, which can be used to stop the Russians from essentially regularizing those areas they currently have control of. So they're going to be able to secure what they have and probably go up to the Dnieper. And I think they want Odessa as well. So I think Odessa is another area where they say they want. That could be a major separate battle.

How wrong is President Biden when he keeps using this sort of pat phrase, Putin takes Ukraine? The last thing in the world Putin wants to do is govern Ukraine. No. They want Ukraine to be a buffer state as it has been essentially since the end of the Cold War and what they want it to be again. I think there was a deal on the table when the war started to stop the war. They could have even joined the EU. I believe the Russians would have let there be an economic relationship, but they could never join NATO.

There is a natural paranoia the Russians have. Judges have to accept it. They are who they are. And the idea that somehow we're going to change and moderate the behavior of the Russian people as a culture is insane. So I think they would have accepted EU membership for Ukraine, no NATO membership. But they did want to have some level of influence to make sure that Ukraine was demilitarized. For better or for worse, I'm not here to judge it, but they are, the Russians are afraid of NATO and NATO expansionism, which is kind of what NATO has done. the 90s i think it was 94 95 that uh i think it was a budapest agreement said basically we wouldn't move wouldn't move west wouldn't move nato would not move east and obviously russia would not move

west and we would stay you know kind of in that static state well that's not happened nato is expanded so they will never permit they r will never permit Ukraine to become part of Russia they will never permit Ukraine to become part of NATO period so um about a week ago uh Rishi Sunak the prime minister of Great Britain the unelected prime minister of Great Britain threatened to send what he called an expeditionary force. What is this? A polar war? Expeditionary force? But anyway, that's the phrase they use. I shouldn't mock that. The language is

the same, but the terminology is different to Ukraine. Even though you and McGregor and Ritter and the others have told us that you could fit the entire British military in Yankee Stadium. Nevertheless, he made this threat and the Brits, excuse me, and the Russians responded. Your former colleague in the military, I'm joking because you two have nothing in common,

Admiral Kirby, the official spokesperson for the united states government cut number one chris said there's been threats from moscow in the last couple days about striking striking british military facilities uh because of the and also simulating nuclear drills uh as sharply rises tensions because of weapons manufactured in the uk being used in the conflict this says it could potentially apply to other allied countries as well, theoretically the United States. Do you have a response to that? Well, what I'd say, number one, is it's just reckless and irresponsible

for the leader of a major nuclear-armed power to be saber-rattling the way that he is with respect to the potential use for nuclear weapons. Obviously, we monitor this and have continued to monitor this very closely. I can tell you we've seen nothing, even despite the reckless rhetoric that would cause us to change our strategic deterrent posture. And look, lastly, if Mr. Putin and Russian officials are uh about their troops in ukraine getting hit with weapons from other countries then the easiest thing to do is just take your troops and leave how absurd is that

last statement take your troops and leave after all this so john kirby lives in an alternate universe you know john is i i comment on John's comments all the time, and that's John Kirby. He would send his mother to Kharkiv if he thought for a minute that would delay the inevitable Russian advances in there, just to give him a few minutes on the podium. The Russians have said, as a matter of policy, that they will respond to any threat that comes at them from Ukraine. If you put British troops into Ukraine, they will be attacked. There have been, I think, credible reporting, Judge, on foreign troops being in in in uh Ukraine being targeted by Russia and I think there's been a number of you know there's been Americans killed there there's been British

there's been French and so I don't see how anybody could be surprised by the Russian statement if there's an escalation to a level requiring nuclear weapons or weapons that are going to be used, Russians will respond with nuclear weapons. They say that it's a matter of policy. There's no ambiguity there. So John Kirby, to kind of do his nonsensical

comments relating to they think the Russians are saying something that's inappropriate, I think is just, again, they, the Biden White House, not understanding the Russian culture. They don't understand Putin. They don't want to understand Putin. They don't understand what he's after. That was the thing that you and I, I think, would agree on. Reagan would always play the man. He wouldn't play the policy, play the man. It was like a poker game. And by now, Reagan and others would have figured out how to deal with Putin and what he wants. And that's something they will not address. You and I both know, and I think have a good understanding of the neocon mentality. Yes.

So will people like John Bolton, Victoria Nuland, Lindsey Graham, will they admit defeat? Do the neocons ever admit they were wrong? No. If they admit they're wrong, they'd have to actually attenuate their policy. Their policy is focused on two things. First, I'm going to say this, I may get in trouble. They are neo-Marxists. They are not part of, they're like an abomination. They used to be Democrats, they went to Republicans, and then they went back to the Democrats. And it's all about using foreign policy with the use of military as its lead. And the idea is to insinuate military operations into everything to maintain control through chaos.

It's chaotic. Remember, they've never seen a country they didn't want to invade. And for them, it's all about using very Orwellian, using the military in a form to keep the churn going, keeping the chaos going. By having that chaos, they have control. It's all about control. It's very it's another form of Marxism using military tools as its primary method of insinuating a Marxist philosophy. But this is not democracy. They are an abomination to both parties. They have, you know, Hillary Clinton's a neocon, and she's a Democrat. Cori Newland's a Republican, sort of, and she's a, you know.

They are a part of the permanent bureaucracy, which really wants to use our militarized foreign policy as a method of insinuating U.S. control and input into all these nations. I am a Reagan guy. I believe, as George Washington did, we should be not involved in foreign entanglements. They want the entanglements because it gives them power, resets their perception. Last subject matter. President Zelensky's term in office expires next Tuesday, May 20th. What happens? Does American intelligence engineer a regime change? Somebody that Putin will talk to?

So since Ukraine's now our 51st state, Lincoln has said that Zelensky's not going anywhere. I think Tony Blinken said in that conference, or one incidental to the one you showed earlier, that until, this is a great quote, completely whack-a-doodle, typical of the Biden folks, there'll be no elections for a new president until all of the Ukrainian territories return to control of Ukraine. So basically what they're saying is as long as the Russians are fighting, we're not going to hold another election.

And that's apparently U.s policy so um no matter what happens zielinski's not leaving because of any internal political process he's going to be there held because of neocons neocons are interfering and and will they get tired of zielky possibly i think it's very possible that they'll sour on him but he's doing what they wanted to do right now judge why would you you know why would you change puppets when you're your guy's doing what he's asked to do so well a time come when the american uh state department and west wing i guess after the election so maybe it depends on the outcome of the election, recognizes that they should be talking to Putin.

I mean, Lavrov would talk to Blinken at the drop of a hat, but Blinken won't talk to him. No. There's no, no. I have to be a little bit careful because of who I talk to. There's no, no, there's, I have to be a little bit careful because of who I talk to. There's no doubt that the moment a change in the White House happens, that is to say, if Trump wins, there would be a 180 degree change of policy.

That engagement and diplomatic discussion would be instantly back on the table. As a matter of fact, I think you would see members of the transition team probably contacting the Russians, both officially and unofficially, saying, let's talk. And I think even that little opening would probably encourage Putin to stop moving forward. I think if you want to stop Putin moving forward, you talk to the man. And I think that's what the neocons know, and that's what they dread. They dread the idea that someone will come in, an actual adult will come into the room and say, all you're playing with soldiers, all you academics who have no military background, using the military for purposes of political gain, it's time to stop.

And I think that's what they most dread, is that that adult Donald Trump will come into the room and say, let's engage with the Russians, let's figure out how to end this thing before more people die. And I think that's what they want. I think that's a very astute analysis, Tony. Tony, thank you for your time this morning. Thank you. I appreciate it. Thanks for your analysis.

We'll hope to see you again soon. I will. Thanks, Judge. Okay, all the best. Coming up later today, bear with me, at 2 o'clock Eastern, Aaron Maté.

At 3 o'clock Eastern, Kyle Ancelone from NAwar.com. And at 4 o'clock Eastern, the inimitable Max Blumenthal. I was with Max and Aaron and Mrs. Blumenthal, Anya Parampol, at a wonderful gathering in New York City last night to celebrate the publication of her new book. As well as I know them, and as much as I love them. This is the first time we met face to face and it was a very happy time. We'll see two of the three of them later today. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thanks for watching!