Judging Freedom - LtCOL. Karen Kwiatkowski: How Long Can Ukraine Last?

Episode Date: May 13, 2025

LtCOL. Karen Kwiatkowski: How Long Can Ukraine Last?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

you Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Tuesday, May 13th, 2025. Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski joins us now. Colonel Karen, always a pleasure. Thank you very much for your time I want to talk to you at some length on your opinion about how long Ukraine can last militarily, but there were some of the other things happening that I have to touch on first What is Trump trying to accomplish and what is the effect of in your opinion?

His trip to Saudi Arabia, which is where he is as we speak? Yeah. Well, he is friends with the money people in Saudi Arabia, in the region. You know, he needs to tout a success, and this is a success. I think he is definitely, I think he's sick of Netanyahu on a personal level. Not that that's going to last forever, but I think this is very much, he has liberated himself, at least for this week, from Israel's requirements and demands. And you know, it's about money and deals. This is what he loves to do. I think he seemed very, he seemed happy there. I think he was happier in Saudi Arabia

than he's in Washington. And they treat him well. I think, aren't the Qataris giving them an airplane? There's all kinds of great Trump style demonstrations of good business and friendship and all that kind of thing. So this is what Trump is good at. And I think he needs to do some things that he's good at.

I suppose that this trip to the Middle East is a slap in the face to Netanyahu, since he's poignantly not going to Israel. And since his people leaked about two days ago that Trump felt he was being manipulated by Netanyahu and so a bunch of things happened to embarrass Netanyahu the American IDF fighter Released by Hamas with direct relations between the US and Hamas, Israel had nothing to do with it. Just as an aside, do you remember when it was unlawful for an American to fight in a foreign military?

Do you remember when the consequences of that were the loss of American citizenship? Yeah, I'll say it's very interesting how things have changed. And it is another topic to discuss. I think the people in this country are, certainly when it comes to Israel, because there are so many dual passport holders in Washington, and that's, we never used to talk about this. And it's talked about on every channel, whether it's, you know, the mainstream media and everywhere else. So I think we're in some ways, maybe out of necessity, we are beginning in this country to start talking about the things that are causing

some of the problems that we face. Well, we might, we might. And believe it or not, it might happen under Donald Trump. I mean, the other thing is that he's done besides the release of this young man was from was born in New Jersey, and went to high school in New Jersey. He's 21 years old at age 18. At age 18, he went to Israel, became a citizen and joined the IDF. There are big celebrations in a town called Teneflai in New Jersey, which had a large Jewish American population, whatever. So there's that. There's the sudden stopping of bombing the Houthis. There's Mike Huckabee making an announcement

I know he didn't wanna make because he had said the opposite two weeks before, but two days ago he said, we're gonna supply humanitarian aid to the Gazans, whether the Israelis want it or not, we don't need Israel's permission. So all these things are happening at the same time, these ostentatious trips to the Middle East. So there either is a rift between them or

Trump wants the world to believe there's a rift between them? Can Netanyahu, well, before I get to capturing Damascus, which I'm going to ask you about next, Trump announced this afternoon the ending of sanctions on Syria. Oh, he did. I missed that. Okay. I knew that was coming. He could have done that. He could have done that 20 years ago. Well, he wasn't president 20 years ago. The Americans could have done it 20 years ago. There wouldn't have been a civil war. There wouldn't have been a million people dead, but whatever.

This al-Qaeda murderer, according to Ritter, is now the head of the government. He wears a Brooks Brothers suit. He trims his beard. He wears a coat and tie. And under his watch watch the sanctions are being removed. Can Netanyahu still capture Damascus or would Trump not let him do it? Well, this deal with this guy in Syria, he's not the president, I think he's a junta leader, but he has prevailed in a US-Israel-Turkey mission

to fragment Syria and he has done that very well and his masters will reward him for that. And that fragmentation of Syria I don't think is done. fragmentation of Syria I don't think is done. I don't know if he's going to give more parts of Syria's land to Israel or just allow Israel to take it, but it's not done yet. And if you've ever seen the map, and I know you have, of greater Israel, which is driving the Gaza thing and it's driving all the wars with Lebanon and every other neighbor in Israel. This plan includes, I think it goes all the way to Damascus. So Syria has been destroyed by the greater powers around it and this is a long process.

And the new debt that Syria will, the aid, the loans, this ending of sanctions, this is all part of that effort to destroy Syria and it is working and it has worked. And it's pretty tragic, but you know, countries that have been colonized and put together in the 19th century, the 20th century, as that falls away, they have to find their own way. So I don't foresee a great peace there because of this.

But it's definitely in the interest of the US and Israel and to some extent Turkey. So yeah, I don't give this guy is a terrorist, okay? He's a terrorist. Listen, Trump's own State Department, the Rubio, the Marco Rubio State Department had a 10 million dollar bounty on his head until about a month ago. Now that goes back to the Biden State Department. I'm not a fan of Biden or of the State Department, but there was a rational basis for that. He was

killing people. According to Ritter, he killed Americans with his bare hands in Afghanistan. Yeah, yeah. And that doesn't matter to Washington. Americans can be sacrificed if it's for the greater good of the state. They're not concerned about that. That's a shame. It really isn't. But I'll tell you, I did enjoy Huckabee having to say those words, but I'm waiting for the day coming soon, I hope, that UN Ambassador Waltz will recognize a Palestinian state. I'm waiting for that because I think it's going to

happen and I think it's going to be very difficult for Waltz to do, but I think it's going to happen. Not that there's a state, but the opening of the door for that recognition. Trump has said he's going to do it. Jeff, Professor Sachs is of the view, the same as you, but he's also of the view that the minute that happens the Netanyahu government collapses. Yeah, oh and that's what I wanted to mention when you talk about Netanyahu and why the turn, why this cold shouldering and this discussion. Trump does not like losers, okay? He does not like losers, we know this. He says it every day. And Netanyahu is politically a loser at this point in his career. He has overstayed his welcome. He's a little like Zelensky.

You know, he's actually not the popular president that he once was. And he politically has many enemies. They are preparing for a post-Netanyahu regime in Israel, a post Netanyahu coalition in Israel. They're preparing for that. And of course, you know, I think they all agree on murdering Gazans for the most part. They're into that.

But the way that Netanyahu operates, some of the way that he has disconnected himself from his own people in many ways. This is something that Israelis themselves are looking forward to the next stage, and that is a post Netanyahu stage. Trump knows it. Everybody who's watching knows it. It's happening.

It's coming. And Trump does not like to be yoked with losers. He has no patience. It's nothing personal with him. You're fired, right? I mean, this is this is his thing. You did fine, but now you're not doing fine. So you're gone I think part of that is what what Trump and of course, obviously I think Netanyahu is very arrogant and he probably has embarrassed or humiliated or or

angered Trump Personally and that that's a factor, but I really think that that Trump Sees the end for Netanyahu. that's a factor but i really think that that trump uh sees the end for netanyahu it's a political end it takes place in israel and he wants to be ready to um re-engage with the next president of israel next prime minister whatever the new government israel i think that is very optimistic thinking i share your optimism and of course I hope that it happens because he's destroying Israel. Now you mentioned in a bit of an offhanded way this jet. I mean, does anybody give away a 400 million dollar jet and not expect a quid pro quo? What are they going to get in return? That's the issue. But even even his fierce neocon zionist MAGA supporters like Marc Levin and Ben Shapiro are all over him on this

Yeah, I know. Well, you know, we have a base in Qatar. So we have given Qatar plenty we are in a position to expand in Qatar if there was ever to be something to do with Iran or any other problem in the region. You know, we have that base in Qatar. We use Qatar, the water that's near Qatar. I mean, you know, we have a relationship that is quid pro quo in its very nature. It is a military basing, forward operating basing relationship. So, you know, he's given them this plane. It doesn't look like a military plane, but it could definitely be seen as just a continuation

of our security relationship that the US already has and has had with Qatar for a long time. It's also a symbol. Is it really worth $400 million or whatever they said it's worth? Well, it's just paper money. We throw that around like nothing. What does it symbolically say? it is a it puts Qatari Qatar up a bit in

Compared to you know our relationship with with Saudi Arabia or other countries in the region So they're competing to some extent to be It's just you know this money, like how much it's worth. We throw so much money. You know what's funny? I don't want to dwell on this too much. He's impatient with Boeing. I don't blame him.

Boeing's very slow. He ordered a new Air Force One in his first term five years ago, and they told him it's going to take two more years for this new Air Force one to come Well, guess how long it's gonna take to retrofit what the Qataris are given giving how long two to three years They have to strip it down to its to its rivets. So yeah. Well, there you go Your argument is an interesting one. I didn't realize that we had this quid pro quo expensive military relationship with them already speaking of expensive military relationships

Karen quackosky with all your experience in the military. Do we need a Defense Department budget of one trillion dollars a year? No, no and also I can say no confidently, but no one can say yes confidently. Because they have an audit. They've never passed an audit. We don't know where the money goes in the 46 different accounting systems or whatever they have in the Pentagon. We have people still working in the Pentagon. They have not faced the full exploration of the doge, you know, to see where the people are, where they're not, where they're not, who's working, who's not, who's connected to a productive program and who's not. We have not examined any of that. We still have lines of production kept open from World War II just in case. And we do not need that in

the 21st century at all. So we hadn't done our work, so of course we don't need one trillion, but who's asking for one trillion? Because those people should be thrown in jail. And I know who it is, I mean it's the Congress and it's the people in the Pentagon, and they should all be... Well the President proposed the one trillion, of course Hegseth embraces it. If Hegseth were here under oath, he couldn't answer my questions as to how it's being spent for the reasons that you've just articulated. Nobody can.

How is it that the Russians have a better army and the Chinese have a better Navy? And our one trillion is more than the two of them. Plus Germany, France, Great Britain and another three or four countries combined. Yeah, yeah, and you know I just can't get out of my head the image of F-18s falling off of an aircraft carrier into the water along with a wrecker I think or some sort of equipment vehicle that was holding it because the story is the aircraft carrier did a rapid maneuver. And that is just, that's Benny Hill type. This is Benny Hill stuff, okay? It really is. And we Americans pay for all this and we're not getting the straight answer at all. And it's not,

I mean, Hedge Seth should be attempting to answer these questions. I don't think he is, be attempting to answer these questions. I don't think he is, not that he's competent or incompetent, the answers aren't there. You have to dig very deep and you have to be laser-like focused on finding out what is going on in the Pentagon and even then you're not going to get a full picture. They're not doing any of that work so they don't deserve a trillion dollars.

What needs to happen, and the easiest way to find out where your waste is, is you cut their budget in half. Very simple to do. They made 880 billion, almost a trillion last year. Let's make it 440 billion. That's your new budget, Mr. Pentagon. And you can use that. You have the authority and the accountability to use that money where it needs to be used and watch the cuts happen because they're there. The fat in the Pentagon is there. No one can deny it.

Everyone knows it. And Trump knows it too. But you don't give them more money and say, oh, I'd like you to make a few cuts. You challenge them. Yeah, and Trump keeps moving 180 degrees. He must have said, kiddingly, but he said it about two months ago, maybe we'll cut the Pentagon budget and have exactly what you said.

And then he comes out with this one trillion, which is actually 1.1, excuse me, 101 billion more than they're spending now. I mean, the numbers are simply staggering. Does he have, I'm switching gears now, Karen, does the president have a realistic understanding of the issues that cause the special military operation in Ukraine? He doesn't understand it as well as your guests understand it as well as you understand it because we've been paying more as you understand it. Because we've been paying more attention for a lot longer and we've been doing research on it so we know. He understands

it because I suspect JD Vance told him about it. And so two or three conversations maybe, that's how much he understands. That's not in a depth of knowledge. It's better than nothing. And I'm sure what JD Vance told him is very consistent with what we know to be true about the origins of that whole problem in Ukraine. Because Trump does realize it started before 2014. He realizes the role that the US had, that the Democrats, Obama administration played in the 2014 coup. He understands from speaking with President Putin, the Russian perspective, so he's been educated, but he's been educated only in the past maybe six months, seven or probably five months, and it's firehose.

What else has he learned? What else has Trump had to learn in the past several months? Much. So his knowledge is not deep. The fact that he has Kellogg still as his ostensible Ukraine guy tells me he doesn't understand, because Kellogg doesn't understand it. So he's the wrong guy for that job. And I said that a long time ago.

But he's not the right guy. Why does he surround himself with these neocons? I mean, yesterday was today Tuesday, yesterday was actually threatened by two of his staunchest supporters in the senate, Tom Cotton and Lindsey Graham. Phil Girardi reassess to them they might as well be senators from Israel because everything is Israel, Israel, Israel. But anyway they Israel because everything is Israel, Israel, Israel. But anyway, they basically said to him, if whatever Witkoff is negotiating for includes any uranium enrichment, I realize I'm switching now from your brain. Any uranium enrichment, it'll never pass the Senate. It'll just be an executive agreement. It won't be a treaty. Well, they're never going to agree to no uranium enrichment. They have very high-end hospitals which need uranium isotopes.

That's right. They have energy which is powered by uranium. Sure. Getting back to Trump, I just wonder how much of an understanding he has of this. He's threatening to show up wherever Putin and Zelensky are going to be. I wish there could be a fly on the wall on such a negotiating, because for all their faults, they know the issues. Trump doesn't. Yeah, no, no, he doesn't. And I think, I don't know who's going to show up in Turkey. Zelensky said he was going to go and he wants Putin to go. But this restarting of the anchor talks or whatever the talks are called, the Turkish talks that were abruptly ended before a conclusion in 2022,

those talks are being effectively restarted and in a kind of a diplomatic way and that means the first meeting of that restart is probably not going to have your top people. It's going to have your teams. Putting together, you know, where are we, where were we, what's changed since, you know, and they going to reset and then go forward from there. And so that is not the place for the leader of any of these countries, this first restart meeting. So I don't know what's going on, but Zelensky does not show any indication

that he wants anything other than what he says he wants, which is more weapons, more war, more support. Does Trump understand that the militarization of Ukraine occurred during his first term? It's the reason he got impeached. They realized it was a political hack job, but it was all about all the weapons we're sending them. That's right. I think what Trump should do is call in that Ukrainian American Lieutenant Colonel that he fired from the National Security Council forget the guy's name. He said he's a twin Alexander Vindman. Yeah, he called Vindman in and have a little just a sit-down, you know, hey, you know I know we we met under unfortunate circumstances six years ago. How about Let's talk. Yeah.

And see, because this is a big, big problem. It is American-Ukrainian problem. It is a corruption problem beyond the depths of what most Americans expect. A lot of people say, oh, well, Ukraine's corrupt. We have no idea the level of corruption that has been going on in Ukraine. And this war, when Zelensky came up, and I think you probably talked about it, but he came up and said to the American people

on television or whatever, hey, yeah, you gave us 200 million, so you say, but I only received like 90 billion of it. Yeah, I don't know what you're talking about, but where's all this money? Yeah, good question. Where is all that money? They have no idea. This is a huge grift. Not necessarily just on the part of Zelensky and his people and those who want to fight Russians in Europe. It's American grift as well. And I haven't really seen Trump get to the bottom of the American side of

that corruption. And we should do that. We are Americans, this is our country, he's our president, so why doesn't he dig a little deeper? And again, start with Vindman, because Vindman has it. I agree with you, Vindman can be an asset. It's not really in Trump's character to forgive and forget like that. I mean, Vindman was a witness against him in the impeachment as absurd as it was. A little bit for laughs, but this is very serious stuff because he's so different now.

Here is Senator Rubio ripping President Putin from pillar to post. I'm sure that Vladimir Lavrov has shown this to, excuse me, Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister, has shown this of Vladimir Putin. But you'll get a kick out of this. Chris, number 11. I don't think we understand enough in our debates about Russia how much this is about

domestic politics within Russia itself. He is basically trying to generate popular support by creating this perception that he has restored Russia to great global power status on par with that of the United States. And so largely, what has given him influence in the world and allowed him to kind of position himself the way he has internally especially is their willingness to use the assets they do have, conventional military capabilities, the nuclear threat, the use of cyber tools, and to use them in brutal ways often, certainly indiscriminately.

And I think through the lens of that, and through the lens of that goal is how you begin to understand Ukraine, where now they hold on to Crimea. There's all this talk about NATO and assimilation with the West has vanished. You look at Syria, where their engagement basically shifted the entire dynamic. They are now positioned themselves in the eyes of the Russian people, many in the world as a regional power broker, which is in fact an alternative to the United States. People who oppose Vladimir Putin wind up in jail, convicted, as we saw yesterday, on trumped-up charges, or poisoned in a hospital bed, in intensive care, and dead.

And of course, the military buildup for a country that's suffering dramatically economically, they continue to expand the military capabilities while the rest of the economy. And I guess it leaves Vladimir Putin at this moment in a position, and maybe this is an exaggeration, I don't think it is, I think he has more power amassed in his hands than we have ever seen in Moscow since the death of Stalin. He's reading from notes that were given to him. His depth of knowledge is very shallow, which is why I was surprised he was made Secretary of State and now acting National Security Advisor as well. But he's humiliated. I actually feel sorry for him. The real Secretary of State is Steve Woodcroft. I know. I know. I think Trump enjoys putting it to people like that. You know, what he did to

Waltz. I mean, he could have put Waltz in a lot of different places, but he put him in the UN and everybody's like, oh, the UN's a great job. No, it's not. Not for Trump. No, but the Vice President Vance claimed it was a promotion. That was a promotion. Not at all. From having your personal office right outside the Oval Office and talking to the President half a dozen times a day to go onto the East River in the middle of Manhattan,

a promotion? And the UN spokespeople, I've watched those meetings. I actually, yeah, I've watched the meetings in the UN. And the ambassador to the UN says exactly what they are told to say by the president. They don't make up stuff. They get told what to say and they read it. No, they can't even vote the way they're,

No, they can't vote the wrong. It tells them, how much longer do you think the Ukraine war can go on if Donald Trump keeps open the Joe Biden spigot? Now, at some point that spigot will run out. I don't think there's any interest in Congress in re-appropriating more funds. So Trump knows it's a finite amount of money that's there. Yeah. I think that because of the way things work

between us and Ukraine and the Congress, that every bit of appropriated money, if they got it, they're going to send it over there. And it's going to buy weapons, some of it's going to buy weapons. And then at that point, Europe has already said the EU, NATO, they all know they don't have enough to keep the war going and at that point the war will stop. So we could have stopped, just like with Gaza, we could have stopped the genocide and we could have stopped the war in Ukraine overnight, simply by shutting off the spigot, because we are the ones making those things happen. We are logistically driving those, both of those things. So when the spigot is dry, which as you said, it's going to

be dry soon enough, then it will stop. And Zelensky will have a problem on his hands because the few around him that want war, and that's not a big number because the Ukrainians that remain do not want war, they want peace, but the few around him that still want war will probably continue to try to fight war. And Russia is not going to stand by and let a relative handful of terrorists in Kiev or any other part of Ukraine cause problems. They are going to eliminate them. And unfortunately, or fortunately, Putin

was very clear on the objectives of the SMO three years ago. And one of them was to denazify or to de-radicalize Ukraine. And they're going to do it because it looks like Ukraine's not going to do it on its own. So it'll probably go on for a while. Now, will it be a major war that's killing all the people that they're picking up, you know, kids and old men off streets and sending them to the front? No, I think that part's going to stop pretty soon. But it's not over until it's over. And really, Putin has the upper hand. He has earned

it very much earned that by his planning for war, his conduct of the war. He's earned it. Right. Colonel Kratkowski, a pleasure, my dear friend. I know we're all over the place, but thank you for a very fulfilling, stimulating conversation. All the best. We look forward to seeing you next week. Same to you, Judge. Thank you. Thank you. Coming up tomorrow, Wednesday at eight in the morning, Professor Gilbert Doctorow at 11 in the morning, Scott Horton on his new book, Provoked the origins of the war in Ukraine. Guess what they are, CIA, professor Glenn Deason

at one in the afternoon and our old buddy, Phil Giraldy at three in the afternoon. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. MUSIC