Judging Freedom - LtCOL Tony Shaffer: How Long Can Ukraine Last?

Episode Date: May 1, 2025

LtCOL Tony Shaffer: How Long Can Ukraine Last?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Upfront payment of $45 required. That's an equivalent to $15 a month. limited time new customer offer for first three months only speeds may slow above 35 gigabytes on unlimited plan taxes and fees extra cement mobile for details Hi, everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, September 18th, 2025. Colonel Tony Schaefer will be here in just a moment. Just how long can Ukraine hold out? but first this.

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double or triple by 2026. I believe in hard assets like this bar of silver. You can hold it in your hand or put it in your 401k or IRA. That's why I urge you to call my friends at Lear Capital and get their free report, the AI revolution and see why silver prices are set to soar. Call 800511-4620, 800511-4620, or go to Learjudsonap.com. Don't wait. The government can print dollars, but it can't print silver. Colonel Schaefer, welcome here, my dear friend. Always good to see you.

Before we get to Ukraine, can you explain how it is, if it is even conceivable, that the Israelis could have attacked? Doha without the United States knowing about it, approving it, and even assisting? There's no way that we didn't know. For three reasons. First, we're a close ally. And many of the things that they rely upon are provided by us regarding logistics and intelligence. I mean, while they're not one of the five eyes, they most certainly have a favored nation status regarding information. And Doha is our playground. Just saying, I mean, we have a base there. We know a lot of what goes on, which comes to my second point. There is no way that the nations around Doha, such as Iraq and Saudi

Arabia would have permitted this to happen, would have been, let me phrase this correctly. There's no way Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and even Qatar would have not been outraged. And yes, they had the conference and, oh, they're all getting together and talking about how bad this is. They have to do that to save face with their people. But there's no doubt that the Saudis and Iraqis at least, probably the Qataris in some form, were aware. As a matter of fact, I think President Trump even said we tried to warn the cutteries that they were coming. So yeah, we warned them because we kind of knew. So that's

the second thing. Third, I think what's kind of important is the fact that everybody was looking the other way, allowed the Israelis to do this, and it was essentially a decapitation strike. That is to say, the theory was, based on the intelligence, all the different Hamas leadership would be in that one spot at that one time discussing the proposed ceasefire that Steve Whitkoff had offered up. So the belief was this was a chance to take out at least 80% of the senior leadership of Hamas. I don't think they got 80%. I think they probably got about half, but they got more than, Hamas lost more than they're saying, and the Israelis didn't get as much as they're saying. So it's somewhere in the middle there.

But maybe everybody knew on our side to include our Arab allies, this was about to happen. So when the president says he didn't know, that means either he's not being truthful or he wasn't told. If the latter is the case, isn't it inconceivable that John Radcliffe, the head of the CIA, General Kane, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Secretary Rubio, the Secretary of State, Secretary Hague Seth, the Secretary. of defense or war wouldn't have told him i i think i'll be honest i think he's saying he didn't know the specific time these other details to include when the israeli aircraft left the ground the route they were flying these all these things all take hours this isn't like the movies where you do a cutscene from the the loading of of ordinance on the ramp to the plane in the air to the strike, which is what? In a movie about two minutes, maybe, maybe less.

This took at least a day of, hey, aircraft of a specific configurationer on the ramp. We know it. They're off. They've asked for clearance in airspace in either Saudi Arabia or Iraq. We know it. So I think what he's trying to say is he didn't know the specifics of the strike. But we, we the United states do there's no way we didn't know that this was coming uh and i i do believe since i get again we have a heavy presence in cutter that we wouldn't have known exactly what those targets were in cutter well in advance of of the strike so i think i think maybe he's saying he didn't he wasn't told told it was in the air which is possible someone would what may have gotten him and said hey prep mr president the israelis are about to strike cutter this is what's going on

I think that's possible, but he did have foreknowledge of what was about to happen. And did we tell the Qatar government before the planes arrived, watch out? I'm sure we did. Because again, President Trump said he tried to warn Qatar that the aircraft were coming, which means I think that he said that. He said, yeah, we try to warn him. I think that that means there was calls made saying aircraft are coming in, don't miss with him. Remember, Cutter has our air defense artillery systems.

They have Patriots. So, Judge, there's no way Cutter's air defense was caught off guard and failed to act. Just saying, you know? I mean, it's our stuff. Would we have, I'm going to use a lay phrase, I'm sure there's a technical phrase with what you're familiar, turned off the radar and air defenses in Qatar, which we can. because of that enormous air base there. Would we actually have done that?

And if we did, isn't that dangerous? Well, we had to. There's ways of aircraft to sorty through airspace in a way that's permissible. And that's what I'm saying. It's like what the amount of surface to air missiles, Cutter was just a wall back. I think six months, five months ago now, they were attacked by Iran maybe it's four months four months and if you recall there were missiles

fired from Iran that we had to that the cuttery patriots had to go shoot down so again there's no possibility and this is where I get a little bit upset with the Pentagon and the White House like it's so kabuki theater there's no way Israeli aircraft could have gotten in that close to do a strike on a building in downtown Doha without, to use your term, things being turned off. They weren't turned off. They basically had a secure corridor. They were told to stay within. Basically, this is again, the Kabuki. They were told, fly here, go to this IP initial point, go here, go to this initial point, and you'll be fine. There's just no way they would have risked high-performance aircraft in a confrontation without.

without full knowledge that they were going to be okay as long as they threw within certain corridors. Okay, switching over to Ukraine. Yeah. Two days ago, President Putin visited the Belarus-Russian war games. Yeah. And he showed up in a military uniform. A, why would he have gone there and B,

why would he have been dressed that way? I couldn't imagine Trump wearing a military uniform. no i can't either no i i i i love president trump but no i couldn't see that he he looks snazzy in his suit and red time so um there's a lot of cold war level messaging ongoing judge you i think you see it i know a lot of other people see it and this is this is going back to the the chess game that was the East and West confrontation during the Cold War. There's Putin. And there's a distinction with the difference regarding what Russia's doing and what Europe's doing. Let me explain. Russia is making it very clear that militarily we are strong. I think that's why Putin's

in uniform. It's like, hey, we are strong. We're very strong right now. Belarus is their key ally. They were doing exercises. BBC actually had an article saying, is Belarus and Russia trying to send Europe a signal with the exercise? Yes. Don't mess with them. Don't tread on me, so to speak. You know, the whole- Didn't they invite NATO observers? They did. They did, yes. How unusual is that? Typical. That's Cold War. We used to have, we used to have observers on both sides. during the Cold War. I used to go to reforgers. This is not well known. The Russians had a small element in Germany that would run around to the exercises. They were German officers. I'm sorry, they were Russian forward-deployed Soviet officers in Germany. And so they had a little car,

they'd get in, and they'd run around and check out exercises. So again, this is very cold war. like hey come look we're doing an exercise got it so we typically invited observers so that's what i'm saying the russians are speaking to us in the language of the cold war europe is speaking to uh the russians and pig lat because i don't think they understand what they're saying and i don't think the russians do either can you explain uh the drones over poland where did they come from how did they get there were they intentionally put there by Russia, were they a false flag by Ukraine? So President Trump has said, as me, I'm skeptical they came from Russia. Why? Because of the range. These things ain't missiles. A drone judge has a certain range.

If you just look at the map, to get to where they were observed, it's a long haul. And yes, it could have gone over Belarus and all this other stuff. over Ukraine but I just why there's other ways of intimidating an enemy like they're doing with the exercise the exercise in Belarus that's intimidation that's saying hey that's sending a message this drone stuff I think is meant to spin up the the Europeans and so who benefits most from spinning up the Europeans well it's Ukraine I'm not saying Ukraine did it I'm just saying they're the ones who benefit the most from any sort of expanded interest in in europe of doing something so there's been a lot of skepticism even russia said hey we're open to the investigation

we don't know now it's not to say the russians didn't do it and just being too too cute by half by saying oh we want the investigation were they drones without explosives they were they were basically cardboard and styrofoam styrofoam drones yeah they were they were meant to have kind of an effect they had no explosives or as far as i can tell what is your gut tell you is this something putton would do or is this more craziness from zolensky people i think it's craziness from zelensky because putin is doing something again Putin is doing something. You just showed him in uniform. So, yeah, they're doing stuff to send the Europeans

a message. I just don't think this drone thing would send a message the kind of message Putin once sent. It's like, yeah, the Russians are intimidating, trying to be intimidating. But the drone thing, I don't think, is it. Just saying. And NATO's reaction and Poland's reaction was as if we're on the cusp of World War III. We better get ready for it. So I have no problem. with that and that we have 10,000 troops to include two armor brigades and the 5th Corps headquarters forward in Poland. That's their job. Our job is to be prepared. It's a deterrent. Again, cold war. Judge, think about the adults in the room recognize this is a cold war series of equations. The children, Zelensky, and the Europeans,

all think this is some sort of game to get more money and resources out of us. So there's two games being played here. The serious, the adults in the room recognize the Cold War language and it's being spoken. I think President Trump understands it. You've got the Keith Kellogg's, you've got the Zelensky's, all living in an alternate universe. Keith Kellogg, let me throw him in for a second. He actually made a public speech last week. He says, oh, the Russians are losing.

I'm going to play that for you in a minute. But before we get there, is NATO close to war with Russia? No. No, no, no, no, no, no. We have, again, forward-based about two armored brigades, divisions. Sorry, I misspoke. Two armored divisions. And what does that mean?

What's a division, a number of troops? It's a huge, it's a huge 10,000 people, 10,000 people. That's a core. We've got basically a core minus two armored divisions, core minus forward in Poland. And Poland is our biggest current deployment in NATO. That's us. Plus we have aircraft there. Now think about the insanity of this, Judge.

We were shooting $800,000 missiles plus at probably drones, which costs maybe $200 dollars each that's that's the problem here we we are we are forward leaning but not discern it we need to be better at discerning what's a threat what's not but having troops in poland is their job it is a deterrent with that said are we at the break no neither side has established the long-term logistical trains they would need to sustain any incursion nor do we see the troops necessary at the front of the near the border in Belarus, which could do any effective movement other than get themselves killed should they cross the border.

So we are in the messaging phase of a potential third, second Cold War. Here's the clip of General Kellogg that you referenced. I think he is truly off the wall, but he gets to whisper into the president's ear. I'd like your thoughts on this. Chris, got number nine. If he was winning, he'd be in Kiev. If he's winning, he'd be west of the Nipa River. If he was winning, he'd be on Odessa.

If he was winning, he would have changed the government. Russia is, in fact, losing this war. Now, they may make movements and see, well, they're advancing in the Donbass region and the desk. But if you consider advancing moving by meters, not miles, well, then, okay, that's successful. But if the cost they're having, it's enormous. and I don't think people truly appreciate it.

It's a number, but the numbers they have lost, when you're talking dead and wounded, well over a million, they left Afghanistan after losing 18,000. We left Vietnam after losing 65,000. They've lost over a million debtor wounded. These numbers are World War II-level numbers when you think about it. They're stunning in the loss.

And their first-line units that they came and tried to take key with a little over four years ago those first line units are gone so they've gone through a second or third or fourth iteration of wartime commanders they're pulling tanks out of mothballs out of museums put on the battle line they can't operate in large movements because the Ukrainians will kill them on earth is he getting his numbers from ukraine come on we know we know where this is coming from and the whole uh oh they're they're breaking down washing machines and refrigerators pulling a chips out for their weapons like getting tanks out of museums this is preposterous the russians produce vastly more tanks per month than we do they are the russian

economy is on war footing so let me say a couple things and i'm going to get in trouble with some people but i'm going to be i just feel i got to speak the truth keith keith kellogg is fundamentally undermining and is being counterproductive to President Trump's purpose of ending the war. I don't know how to put it in any clearer terms. The fact that Kellogg has any access to the president, I consider detrimental, especially after this display of utter propaganda from the Ukrainians. Have the Russians lost a significant amount of troops? Absolutely. the Russians are known for being able to sustain massive casualties it's not new uh we saw that from in world war two from stalingrad to berlin no doubt no doubt that they can do that is it a million

no it's it's it's in the hundreds it's probably a hundred thousand maybe a bit more it's significant it's more than we would take on but it's not a million secondly the keith kellogg is either fundamentally incapable of understanding strategy or has decided to just take the party line of Ukraine and use it as its own because the Russians, by their own special military operation objectives, aren't trying to take Kiev or all of Ukraine. That's not the standard, Judge. The standard is aggressive attrition. What they're trying to do, the Russians, is wear down Ukraine and by extension, us, the West.

And we've been just letting it happen. They have attritted every weapon system. They, the Russians, have attritted every weapon system. We've given them. We've done exactly the opposite of what we should have done to help the Ukrainians win. Here, take this, go use it on the battlefield. Grind, grind, grind, grind, it's gone. Okay, so how dangerous is it that General Kellogg gets to whisper into Donald Trump's ears?

Well, I've said publicly, I fire the man. I would have never put him back in play. And again, this is going to get me in trouble for saying this, but I don't know why President Trump gives him any of the time of day. By the way, Keith Kellogg just got some sort of Order of Lenin Award from the Ukrainians. So he's not a neutral party. This is one of the things to you. President Trump has said, as policy, we are the neutral party.

Well, Mr. President, Keith Kellogg is not on your side. If you're saying we're a neutral party, he's playing for Ukraine. Steve Whitecock is trying to be neutral. I think most other folks now recognize our job is to be neutral to end this. Keith Kellogg should have a permanent dacha in northern Ukraine on the front line to help advise because that's kind of what he's doing. And by the way, let me be clear, he is perpetuating the Ukrainian propaganda by saying the stuff he did. I'm just saying, I hate to be that blunt.

But Tony, your bluntness is deeply appreciated. Colonel Schaefer, how much longer can Ukraine last? Well, they've gone through all of the weapon caches that we sent them. There is a proposal on the table for over $100 billion that the Ukrainians have asked for from the Ukraine's vast war from the EU. The EU doesn't have the money. I don't know where they think they're going to get it, and we're not going to give it to them.

The new scheme that we proposed that NATO furnish weapons to Ukraine has now kicked in. The first tranche of weapons, $500 million worth, I think was just approved by the Pentagon. So again, now we're kind of involved, not really, but kind of because NATO. So NATO now is taking over the U.S. role in providing weapons and advisors to Ukraine. We're out. It's the EU. So that first package was just approved, I think, within the last two days.

So we'll see how that goes. It wasn't as large as other packages, $500 million, it's not a billion, but it's still big. And so that's what's going on. How long can they last? The Russians are preparing for a series of additional offens coming out. up this winter. Even during the supposed time it's going to be too cold to fight to any great degree, I think we're going to see the Russians continue to whittle away until they've eaten the four provinces they want. I think by January, we're looking at a full collapse of

Ukraine as a nation. Your colleague, Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson agrees with you. He said by the end of the year, which is the same as January. So you're talking three months. We're in the middle of September. Yeah. Wow. All right, Colonel, thank you very much. Thanks for your time. Sure. I appreciate it. Thanks for the analysis. Thanks for letting me go back and forth from Doha to Keeve. If you get any love letters from General Kellogg, please let me know. No, I'll be getting love letters from other people you and I know who have worked there. We all respect you. Last time I said this on the air, I got a call within 10 minutes after it was out.

Just say it. Colonel, we all respect you, and I am so appreciative of our friendship and professional. You too, Judge. All the best, Tony. Thank you. Thank you. And coming up later today on all of these topics at 11 this morning, Colonel Douglas McGregor, at 1 this afternoon, Professor Glenn Deeson at 3 this afternoon,

Professor John Mearsheimer. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thank you.