Judging Freedom - Pepe Escobar : A Pre-Alaska Analysis.

Episode Date: August 13, 2025

Pepe Escobar : A Pre-Alaska Analysis.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Pepe Escobar, a pleasure, my dear friend. I must say that I'm blessed to have very, very intelligent, very thoughtful people on this program, and almost all of them send me written materials in advance. You have sent me one of the most profoundly intriguing, challenging, informative, and entertaining pieces I have ever read concerning geopolitics. It is your analysis of what we can expect in Alaska on Friday. So let me start. Is it going to be reality or shadow play? Shadow play.

Shadow play 150%. Photo op for Trump, something they could brag about later on. There are serious doubts that Trump understands the underlying causes of Mayden in 2014, of the SMO, of the proxy war in Ukraine, and all the baggage, all that came before. So in the middle To go pop I think this week we're going pop All the way

One of my readers remind me of Goldfinger So all of us who grew up watching James Bond Would remember Goldfinger So I applied Goldfinger to Donald Trump And I think they match So maybe we're going to have a fabulous spectacle But no substance, unfortunately

Wow Do you think that this is just the prelude, the agreement to agree, the prelude to another meeting, which would be in Moscow at a much later date. The reason I ask that is because, as he is want to do, I don't know how he thinks this is going to advance a negotiation, but President Trump just said a few minutes ago, there will be hell to pay for Russia if President Putin doesn't agree to stop the war. And we know he's not going to agree to stop the war. McGregor told us earlier today, Colonel McGregor,

that the Ukrainian military is virtually obliterated. Why would they stop the war now? There's absolutely no incentive for the Russian general staff to stop the war now, especially because now they have total momentum all along the front line. We should go back to the definitive sentence that explains why Alaska is happening. Yuri Ushakov, top Putin aid.

We received a proposal from the Americans that we think is acceptable. We can read anything overground, underground, underground, in parallel, subtexts of what he said. Basically, he's saying that the Russians have no interested in having a blah, blah, blah about Ukraine and bigger questions. But if the Americans have a solid proposal, they consider it. And that's why Putin is going to anchorage. What that could entail, if on the table we have a serious discussion

about the overarching issues, which is essentially they concern US, Russia, reset, a real reset. And of course, spheres of influence, expansion of NATO, the really, really serious indivisibility of security issues that were present in those two letters that the Kremlin sent to the White House and to NATO in December 2022. If we get to a situation on the table

or they start discussing it, then there's a light at the end of the tunnel. Or this thing could derail in 10 minutes. We don't know. We really don't know. So it's on a razor, edge, what could happen? The positives, the negatives are much, much hardcore than the positives. Slim positives, let's put it this way. Who has the most to gain and who has the most to lose? Depends on there are two very complex relationships in terms of domestic public opinion and foreign

policy. Okay, I'll start with Putin because it's easier. Putin is being criticized by some people among the intel agencies and let's say something thanks as well and some business man he should have ended this war a long time ago he didn't cut off the head of the snake this is going for away this is going away and out of proportion for too long it's time to end it and ended the Russian way internal critics domestic critics at the same time Putin answers to bricks very important Putin will be representing bricks in Alaska for several reasons. One of them

is, it's possible that inbuilt in what Ushakov told us about an American acceptable proposal, there is the possibility that Trump would refrain from imposing extra

tariffs and sanctions on British nations that are buying Russian oil, most of them, most of all, Russia and China. If that happens, it would be a brick victory. And Putin will get this Bricks victory. So Bricks is at the table in

Alaska, because of course the Empire of Chaos and Donald Trump himself, he is at war against Bricks, hybrid, hot and cold at the same time. Trump's situation. He has domestic opposition. He has total European

opposition. And obviously he has gangsters of Kiev opposition to any accommodation and any possible beginning. of a peace deal with Russia. So we saw this past few days how the dementia of Russophobia are now completely off the charts trying to smash the summit even before it happens. At the same time, Trump, in his mind, what does he want?

He wants to transfer definitely the war from the US and the industrial military complex to the Europeans. The Europeans will pay for the war against Russia. Russia in Ukraine from out one, buying loads of American weapons and getting 5% of GDP of each NATO member. And obviously, the US will profit one, two times, 10 times, a million times from the whole thing. And he wants to do business with Russia if it's possible. If we get to the point of discussing a reset and doing business and doing business online. oil and gas. And where in the Arctic? And that also explains why this first meeting is in the Arctic. And this is the Russian carrot to Trump. The Russians suggested the first meeting in the U.S.

And they suggested the Arctic. Before we get to the Arctic, is Putin under any pressure from his intelligence people and his generals not to cooperate with Trump? Or to get American and UK intel to stop firing weapons on Russian soldiers. Exactly, Judge. This is the red line not only for Putin, but for the Russian general staff. If in the discussions in Alaska, there is no mention of the U.S. seizing to provide intel. to Kiev, not to mention weaponizing, then all bets are off and Russia will continue to do

what they're doing. A tradition war, victory in the battlefield within the next few months or maximum beginning of 2026. And they are absolutely sure this is going to happen. It's a national consensus. It goes from the Minister of Defense to the men in the street in Kazan or in Vladivostok. So the differential is, can we sit on the same table with the President of the United States and have a dialogue about resetting Russia-U.S. relations, the overarching teams, discuss the big

picture. They're going to see that in the first 10, 50 minutes. And LaBrogue is going to be there. This is going to be quite subs. Oh, boy. It's upside down. Our friend, Sergei Lavrov, our other friend, Scott Ritter, who's in Moscow, was on the show with some guests of his. We had a translator.

They were government officials as well as business people. They're expressing the view that the Russian public wants a grand reset, geopolitical, economic, and commercial, cultural, reset, as was the case, excuse me, before Biden imposed and Trump continued the sanctions. Do you think President Putin comes to Alaska with that on his agenda? It's also on his agenda. It's a very, it's a multi-layered agenda. resetting relations as a whole, discussing underlying issues and especially the background that led to Medan and then to all those years of harassing of Dombas populations and the SMO.

Resolution of the SMO, respecting these four oblasts that will be Russian. and it is already inscribed in the Russian Constitution, demilitarization of Ukraine, neutral Ukraine, no NATO in Ukraine, no Ukraine in NATO in Ukraine, of course. Right, right. No, they can answer you any time they want. The Russians don't care about that. Let's say Trump says yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes. What about Zelensky?

Exactly. And especially, what about his sponsors, Judge? What about the movie? Zelensky is just an actor. What matters in this case are the sponsors. And among those sponsors is the American deep state. And of course the American deep state. So anything that Trump agrees, by definition, will be opposed by the U.S.

deep state, except if Trump after, let's say, this first meeting and the second meeting in the Russian Federation, which Trump is saying, you should. be held immediately after the first one in Alaska, he finally concludes that there's no way he can sell any possibility of any sort of arrangement to the Europeans. So he transfers the war completely to NATO. And then the industrial military complex in the deep state will continue to reap their profits in euros, selling loads of weapons to NATO. But then it's going to be an European-NATO war against Russia and the Americas but this presumes that the

UK, Germany, France, Italy, Brussels, etc. can afford to pay for the American arms and have the political will to do so. Not only they cannot afford judge because they don't have the money.

They will have to go in the open market and get loans with absurd interest rates. that they won't be able to repay any way. How they're going to sell this to domestic public opinion? Here in France, in Italy, in the UK, in Germany, it's absolutely impossible. There is a silent but extremely angry. I would say approaching a majority in most European nations

that they are doing the mess and they are making a direct. connection between weaponizing Ukraine and the degradation of social services all across Europe. People are finally doing the math. If President Putin is unable to talk or negotiate for the removal of secondary tariffs, I'm pretty sure that Bricks has a plan B, don't they? Not yet, Judge. This is what they are discussing. I'm sure you and our audience, all of you, you have noticed the flurry of phone calls these past.

I would say less than a week. Everybody is calling everybody else. Putin, Modi, Lula, you name it. She. And they are organizing a collective response to the tariff dementia, let's put it this way, and to the overall hybrid war by Trump 2.0. against BRICS. They are coming with their plan B, which is not a plan B. It was always their plan A. We are de facto de-dollarizing without even invoking the term de-dollarization.

We are increasing trade in our national currencies, more and more all the time, all across the BRICS spectrum and involving the 10 BRICS partners as well. So this is what, this is de-dolarization de facto. And you don't even need to comment about that. You don't even need a label for that. And in parallel, what I call the Briggs Lab, they are still testing all this payment settlements mechanisms, which will be implemented between now 2025 and 2007.

They will all be implemented. There will be three, four, five of them. Not to mention payment systems like, like the SIPs payment system in China, the SPFS payment system in Russia, they will be merging. And this will be expanding to other BRICS as well. This is all ongoing. No stop. It's a high-speed rail thing.

The I in BRICS, the letter I in BRICs stands for Iran. Now I would say, yes, very good question. The President of the United States has been demonizing Iran because the President of the United States is arguably controlled by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and all of his acolytes here in the U.S. Question. Will Iran be on the table for Putin and Trump? It's a very good question. Probably not, because this is basically about U.S.-Russia relations.

For instance, Putin will not explicitly mention bricks at the table. First of all, because not only Putin, but everybody around Putin. They know that Trump doesn't understand bricks and Trump doesn't know exactly how bricks work. But Putin can say to Trump, look, I'm here representing a group of emerging powers from the global south. And we all align in many aspects. So dealing with Russia means dealing with them as well. But this is going to be told in a, I would say, almost like when Putin decides to to revert to a history lesson lasting 20 minutes, amidst this 20 minutes, he could introduce

this extra element if he has 20 minutes to talk to Trump and give Trump the full background of what they are actually discussing, the parameters. As far as we know, right now, Trump has no idea about the parameters they will be discussing I have to say that I fully agree with you. I mean, when you compare Vladimir Putin's knowledge of geopolitics and history, Sergei Lavrov's knowledge of geopolitics and history, with Donald Trump's and Marco Rubio's, it's not a comparison at all. It's an extraordinary balance favoring the Russians

in terms of their knowledge and grasp of these affairs. It's not the first time that this happens, a judge. In one of my columns, the column I published earlier this week, I reminded the readers about the last time there was a summit in Anchorage. March 2021, U.S. and China. Guess who was representing the U.S.? Blinken and Sullivan? Guess who was representing China?

Wang Yi and Yoda Yang Jashin. They destroyed Blinking and Sulu. And this was, everything was fully documented and translated because, of course, the Chinese, they had an absolutely outstanding translator. And she translated everything from English to Mandarin, from Mandarin to English. So this went all over the place, reproducing that, you know, I would say the smackdown that Blinket and Suleva got, especially from Young Jishi. So this was one side of the table that was completely unprepared, and the other side of the table you're dealing with giants.

We have the same thing. You mentioned the Arctic earlier. Will the Arctic be in play on Friday, or do more players need to be there to address the Arctic? In Trump's mind, yes. Because in Trump's mind, in business terms, He wants to do business with Russia and Russian companies, American companies and Russian companies, again, in the Arctic. Why? Why? Because of oil and gas, obviously.

The problem is Russia is deeply invested as a matter of national security in the development of the Far East and the Arctic, especially via the Arctic Silk Road. This is the Chinese denomination, which I think is much more appropriate. than Northen Sea Route, which is the Russian denomination. With their fleet of icebreakers, they have nine nuclear icebreakers, two being built now, including a monster which is capable of navigating the Arctic 365 days a year, non-stop anywhere in the Arctic. So this is the fleet that will allow the North and Sea Route or the Arctic Central supposed to be functional all year around.

Everybody will be interested because it's shorter, faster, and much more convenient than using the Swiss Canal. So this is the long-term Russian vision. Will the Russians allow the Americans to be part of it? Forget it. No way. Gas exploration in some parts of Siberia or even the Arctic, maybe, depending on the contracts, depending if gasprone is interest, etc. But this is what Trump has in mind. He wants business, oil and gas, and that's where the Arctic comes in. Depends on how he's going to go.

Would he be able to convince Putin? Oh, let us in. Let's make a lot of money together. Okay, but first we need to solve that little indivisibility of security problem that we have. Right, right. Will Putin let Trump take Greenland? I love this one. Well, I think we should think would Putin let Trump get part of the Arctic business?

This is more because this is directly linked to what should be discussed on the table in Anchorage. Greenland is too far away. And Putin would say, okay, whatever you want to do with Greenland, this is not our problem, this is your problem, which is true. Will the military action in Ukraine be affected one bit by the meeting in Alaska on Friday? Absolutely not, Judge. Absolutely not. And for instance, Pokrovsk is going to become Russia in a matter of a few days, Max. And then everything to the West is open. coming back to what commanders in Dombas told me when I was there last time in February.

After that, you know, you see those planes over there, we'll keep going all the way. And this is what they are already doing, and they will continue to do. And the only thing that could, let's say, humanitarian pause of two, three, four days or something like that, the Russians would never accept a long-term ceasefire. They don't need to. They don't have to it. They don't need to. Would be if there is a strict American promise, and then we come back to Lavrov, the United States is non-agreement-capable.

Can you trust any promise made by Trump? Well, Lavrov would probably say no. Exactly, exactly. And he has all the background, and he followed everything. Minsk one, two, three. Right, right. five six same thing right ask ask the iranians with whom the americans were negotiating when the americans started dropping two thousand pound bombs if trump can be trusted pepe i have to run thank you very much

i know it's the middle of night in paris but it's worth it uh to have you on a deeply appreciated my dear friend publish this piece it's about goldfinger it's a masterpiece thank you so much all the best yep we'll see again soon all the best thank you coming up if you're watching us live in five minutes, but at 3.30 Eastern Kyle Anselone, Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thank you.