Judging Freedom - Pepe Escobar : Iran’s New Offensive Strategy

Episode Date: August 14, 2026

Pepe Escobar : Iran’s New Offensive StrategySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Undeclared wars are commonplace. Pragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes to love your country you had to alter or abolish the government? Jefferson was right? What if that government is best, which governs least? What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish fighting for

freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now? Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Friday, August 14th, 2026. Pepe Escobar joins us now. Pepe, a pleasure, my dear friend. My pleasure, Judge. Thank you. You've written some fascinating pieces in the past 24 hours. I don't know how you know it, but they are absolutely terrific. I want to start with the new Saudi-Bakistani-Turkeia treaty. Is it a defense pact in the traditional sense? We could go on forever on this one, Judge, because they didn't better to explain to anybody what this is all about.

There was no leak of the final text, only a few snippets. All of them focused on the NATO's Article 5, an attack on one of us is an attack on a few snippets. the three of us and they were emphasizing deterrence but this looks more like deterrence theater it's very hard to imagine that for instance if something or someone or some entity goes after Saudi Arabia the Turks and the Pakistanis will wait in with the second largest NATO army and with Pakistan's nuclear power so I was I was trying to get a direct answer from our Pakistani mediator friends, Larry and I.

The best we could get is that the ambiguity of it all is the policy. The policy for the three of them. Okay. Yes, go ahead, please. One of them is in NATO. Turkey is a member of NATO. How complicated can this get? Absolutely, Judge. They are the eastern arm of NATO, the second largest NATO army outside of the United States, with an enormous interest in being part of the integration of Eurasia. But for the moment, they are by the other two major players, Russia and China, they keep the Turks outside because they simply cannot trust Ankara. It's simple as that. Ankara is not a member of NATO.

of BRICS and is not a member of the Shanghai Corporation Organization, although they try very, very hard on both cases. Russian and China, they don't trust them. Simple as that. And Iran, which is a full member of both BRICS and SCO, it's complicated. They are neighbors, their relations are improving, but still, to give you an idea, there's more trust between Iran and Pakistan than between Iran and Turkey. As the Iranians, the Pakistanis, the Russians and the Chinese and the Central Asians, they all know what Turkey really wants across Eurasia.

It's what they call the Greater Turan project, which means an amalgamation and an organization of Turkic-speaking peoples with Ankara at the top. They might be interested in more deals with Ankara, but not with Ankara as at the top and dictating terms. For instance, there's a fascinating panel in the Astana Museum in Kazakhstan. It's a whole room. There's a huge map in this room with the list of Turkic peoples. Over 40 different ethnic groups. So we find Uyghurs in Xinjiang, Western China, of course, Kazakhs, we find Kyrgyz, Turkmen, etc. But this is, it's not that these are subordinated to Turkey.

These are peoples who speak Turkic languages or Turkish-derived languages. And on top of it, they originated in the Altai Mountains, which is a large region that nowadays encompasses parts of Russia, parts of Kazakhstan, parts of. of Mongolia. So this has nothing to do with Ankara, which is on the extreme left of the map in Anatolia, controlling everything else. What is this new arrangement, and then we'll get to Iran in a minute. What is this new arrangement, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia?

What is its effect on bricks? Well, bricks so far, they haven't said a word about it. Just like, by the way, the United States, the United States has, there's no formal reaction by Washington about this Mecca deal. Once again, because it's so ambiguous that everybody is scratching their heads. Okay, if there is a pact, it's against whom? And there's an enormous list of possible candidates. The first one will be Israel, in fact. And this proves why the Zionists are slightly in discomfort about the whole thing.

It's not essentially against Iran, because if it was, the relationship between Iran and Pakistan will be already broken. And apparently, it was not reconfirmed, but Minister of Foreign Relations of Turkey, Fidane, he called the Iranians before the signing in Mecca, he basically said, look, guys, this is not against you. And the Iranians quietly will say, okay, let's see what the facts are doing later on. So is this a photo op and a PR cool for MBS, Mohammed bin Salman Saudi Arabia? Definitely.

Will that detect him from anything from our own? Nobody knows. As recently as two days ago, President Trump made another one of his proclamations that the Strait of Hormuz is totally open to anybody in the United States wants to go in there, that the United States Navy has effectively erected a steel wall and won't let anything in or out that affects Iran.

Does anybody believe him when he says that, anybody in the international scene? Not even camel caravans in the Gobby Desert, Judge. Nobody believes. Just look at the facts nowadays. And to look at the facts, you have to listen to one person, essentially. Moshin Resei. Mosef, Rézai, since Monday, in fact, the exact date is Monday, started on Monday, only a few days ago.

He is not only the new Secretary General of the Supreme National Security Council in run, but also the personal representative of leader Mostaba Kamenei. Anybody who will check Morsenna's X account and see what's posted over there, this means that this comes also directly from Mostab Khameen, the leader. Go ahead. Go ahead. No, please, go ahead. Go ahead. Here's what General Razai said just the other day about the Strait of Hormuz. Chris number 16.

The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened. No American worship has the right to enter the Persian Gulf. The American presence in the Persian Gulf is the main cause of the insecurity of the last 50 years. Without the U.S. leaving the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz being controlled by the countries of the region themselves, especially us and the country of Oman, who are on both sides of this trade, it is impossible for security to be established. The end of the war is also in our hands. We will look at the end of the war when, first of all, we have received all our damages from America. Secondly, we must reach a 100% guarantee about the future,

which is not possible without the US leaving the Persian Gulf. Therefore, the second condition is the withdrawal of the US from the Persian Gulf. These are basically the conditions that are laid out in the a memorandum of understanding signed two months ago this weekend. Absolutely. And by the way, the 60-day clause just expired. By now, according to the MOU, they should be on the table actually discussing details. And that has not even started it because the U.S. blew up the MOU.

So this a minute and a half that you played of Wosendra, as I, a judge, It's all there in detail, not only what was signed by both parties in the MOU, but what the tone of the discussions these past few days with Pakistan, Oman and Qatar. And obviously that was relayed to the Americans as well. And behind all of them, as we all know, is China. China wants the straightover moves. open for obvious reasons. They are major trading power, but respecting Iran's conditions. And Iran is a key strategic partner of China. So, very, very simple. If there is something moving in the strait over moves in the negotiations, means the Americas need to fulfill their commitments that, by the way, signed by the President of the United States in the MOU. Otherwise,

absolutely no chance this will move. And we would be. be delving into ominously the possibility of a forever war, a war that could drag on. You read my mind. I was going to save that to the end of our conversation, but since you raised it, should we in the United States, should the people in the Middle East, should the world fear another forever war, because the president of the United States, can't find an off-ramp without admitting his incredibly poor judgment and starting this war. And admitting a strategic defeat judge, which in geopolitical terms, this is the mother of all mistakes, in fact. Well, let's look at how I'm starting to calling them the three musketeers, Russia, Iran, and China. A more elaborate definition, which I was using until literally yesterday, is the new Primakov Triangle.

Primakov in the late 90s coined Russia, India and China as the Primakov triangle. The three nations, then civilization states, would organize the remaking of Eurasia in the 21st century. So now we have the three musketeers. Let's say this is a pop adaptation. Netflix could even do a movie about that. Okay, so the three musketeers are, they are applying, let's say, titanium torniquets enveloped in a velvet glove in three different points. The first one is the Strait of Hormuz.

What Iran is doing, and their policy in the Strait of Ramos is fully supported by China. and in the background also by Russia. Because they all understand that this war from the beginning was and is an oil war in an oil choke point war, in an oil against an oil choke point that transits and markets currencies away from the petrol dollar, especially the petrol you want. The Russians, they have a system of payment settlements called the 80s, called A7 by a Russian bank and now becoming very, very popular in Africa, which is circumventing the international system controlled by the US big, big time. And the number three is the Chinese

new sovereign law that forces any Chinese company not to obey U.S. sanctions. And every sanction applied against a Chinese or other company in a Chinese jurisdiction will be met with, obviously, lawsuits. So we have the three musketeers applying pressure in three crucial points that directly affect the unilateral domination of the U.S. So this is what matters much more than this photo-op Sunni-style mecca plan, in fact. Do those three musketeers have a banking system? Now we are reaching the key, key problem, Judge. And for all of us who have been following the bricks closely, which is my case,

we entered despair territory a few months ago because it's blah, blah, blah, and nothing happens. We're going to have, by the way, the Briggs Summit next month in Delhi. So less than three months, less than three months, less than, I'm sorry, less than one month from now. Are they going to come up with something extraordinary? No, especially because it's India that is sharing. But, of course, the Russians, they are doing it their way. This system, the A7, which is Reuters, came out with an enormous article about that,

sounding all sorts of red alarms about it because, ah, this is Russia. You know, they're trying to control the financial system all across everywhere. No, these are African governments looking at the way to bypass American interference or effects of American sanctions or secondary sanctions by using basically a stable coin. This A7 system is a Russian stable coin. And this can be adopted by scores of nations all across the global south, even before Bricks come up with their, I used to call it the Briggs Lab. Yes, they have different forms of currency settlement, payment, they are testing. But this can go on forever.

It's too bureaucratic. So you need an initiative like that that's very practical. And you have a guy in Nigeria wanting to buy something from Iran for Estas. He's going to use the Russian A7. He's not going to use the international financial system. And this is already working in practice. Wow. I'm terrified at the thought of a forever war, Pepper.

Yes, of course, all of us, yes. I mean, don't the Americans recognize their humiliating defeat, at least, don't they recognize it in a non-public way? I mean, Trump and HECSeth probably never will because they're fanatics. except for military glory, Trump for personal glory, but don't the people around them understand this can't go on? The current setup in the Trump White House and the Trump administration as a whole judge, I don't see so. I don't think so, especially because they are tremendously unprepared

and their knowledge of geopolitics and especially across Eurasia. is next to zero. Somebody who could understand is a very widely operator and a very smart guy is Elbridge Colby. The guy who actually redacted the national security

doctrine. But there is a huge problem. He is a first-class synophore. He doesn't understand China. He only sees China in terms of a threat. But he doesn't bother to study China and how China

operates globally. But the most important element is the people we don't see. American elites. And I'm sure you know and our audience knows who we're talking about. The guys who never appear anywhere. They are too powerful. They go to exclusive clubs. They decide what to do. And they don't even bother to show up on TV or Builderberg or all that crap, you know. These are the people who actually run the U.S. Can you imagine for them to admit a strategic defeat, which would mean in practice admit that everything that they always imagine who lasts throughout the 21st century,

like it lasted from 1945 to the end of the millennium, will collapse. They can't. Last topic, is China dumping U.S. dollars? Yes. Like there's no too much. Right, right. What is likely to be the effect of that? It's, well, Chinese judge. It's always very long term.

But dumping treasuries all across the board constantly. And if it's at the current volume, you take only a few years for the whole thing to disappear. and obviously the effects then will start to be fell perhaps between one and two years from now. They are more preoccupied at a moment in China with applying the five-year plan until 2030, which is to diversify their investments and diversify their economy

and let's say digitalize their economy to the tune of 70% of the whole Chinese economy. This is their number one priority. And their international priority is to solidify their BRICS-CO, Global South alliances all across the global south, especially inside Eurasia. And, of course, part of that is preventing a collapse of Iran. And this is a policy shared by the Russia-China Strategic Partnership. partnership. Of course. Because they are interlocking strategic partnerships of the three words. Oh, I love this new AI three musketeers. This is so cool. Yeah, you can thank you can

thank Chris and his nimble fingers. Oh, Chris. Oh, man, you do this in one minute. It's absolutely outstanding. Let me go to one last subject. What do your Pakistani friends tell you about any negotiations. Are the Pakistanis talking to the Iranians? Probably yes. Are the Pakistanis talking to the U.S.? And if they are to home, are Whitkoff and Kushner, still in the picture? No. Tweedldom and Tweedldi, bye-bye. And the Iranians said from the beginning, we're not talking to those clowns again. So what do we get from our Pakistani mediators and sources, what they tell Larry and I is that yes we are still relaying our messages to the Americans but as best as we can tell this is not 100% confirmed these are people linked to JD Vance's office this is

a very important information because it can be interpreted in many ways they didn't get into too many details because they don't want to burn of course their relationship with their new American interlocutors. But they could be saying that there's nobody in the Trump camp, let's put it this way, talking to them, or they could be saying that most of the talking goes through J.D. Vance's people. Or both, or all of the above. What they do say is that, look, we still believe that this window of opportunity

for the MOU dat cat is not dead yet. of course for the moment is in deep coma again but it could be resuscitated but there's only one condition and this is the conditions that the iranians told the pakistanis if the americans start to fulfill their commitments in the m o you otherwise exactly what moshandresai say in that clip that you just played there's absolutely no chance of anything and the iranians are running the clock and the Iranians are not in a hurry. Last question. One of the chatterers just put this thought, people that write to us during the show.

Just put this thought in my mind. Marco Rubio is the Secretary of State of the United States. Does he have anything whatsoever to do with any negotiations between Iran and the U.S.? Can you believe that U.S. Secretary of State never talk to Arakshi? Wow. Arachi is the foreign minister of Iran. Never. He never talked to Arachi.

How can you have a negotiation at the highest foreign ministry level between two nations when they don't talk to each other? That's my, it's not a good answer, but this is the answer we have at the moment. Got it. Got it. Pepe, thank you, my dear man. Thank you very much for your time. I hope you have a great weekend.

I know you will. forward to seeing you next week. And thanks for the three musketeers. Oh, yes. Yeah. There you go. There you go. Crystal, send you the link so you'll have it for your own use. Thank you, my friend. Really? And I'll tribute it to you guys and I'll put it everywhere. Thank you so much. God bless you. All right. All right. All the best. Thank you. Coming up later today, the end of the day, the end of the week, the Intelligence Community Roundtable with Larry Johnson, Joe Kent, and Scott Ritter. 4 o'clock this afternoon, U.S. Eastern. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom.