Judging Freedom - Pepe Escobar: Russia/China/Iran Warn US.

Episode Date: April 15, 2025

Pepe Escobar: Russia/China/Iran Warn US.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Whatever your stage, businesses that grow, grow with Shopify. Sign up for your $1 a month trial at Shopify.com slash listen. Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Tuesday, April 15th, 2025. Pepe Escobar will be here with us in just a minute from Beijing. But first this. While the markets are giving us whiplash, have you seen the price of gold? It's soaring. In the past 12 months, gold has risen to more than $3,000 an ounce.

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It's time to see if gold is right for you. Call 800-511-4620. 800-511-4620 or go to learjudgenap.com and tell them your friend, the judge sent you. Pepe, welcome here, my dear friend. Thank you for accommodating my schedule. I know you're in China and I have a lot of questions to ask you about the Chinese reaction, both political and economic, absolutely. to President Trump's tariffs.

But before we get there, some background questions on which I wanna pick your brain. the economic to President Trump's tariffs but before we get there, some background questions on which I want to pick your brain. Do you sense there is a divide? What is that? Are you with us? Pepe? Alrighty. Hello. Yes. Okay.

Can you see what was that that you just held up? 101 bill, because you mentioned paper wealth and I'm presenting you and our audience through paper wealth. All right, we get to paper wealth in a minute. Do you sense that there is a divide in the president's foreign policy team between the neocons like Hegseth and Rubio and Gorka and Waltz and the America firsters like Gabbard and Vance and Witkoff? There is.

And in terms of so-called China policy, it's an absolute disaster, because I would venture to say that none of them understand China. Just to give a little background for our audience, I spent the day today here in Shanghai at Fudan University. I had a seminar with Professor Zhang Weiwei, which is among the top three and top five Chinese intellectuals. And our theme was the Russia-China strategic partnership. But then, of course,

it extrapolated and we were discussing the US-China relationship. Our audience was absolutely top of the line, PhD students from different areas at Fudan University. And something that you feel in the atmosphere here in Shanghai. I've been coming to Shanghai for over 30 years. And you feel in the streets not only the absolutely extraordinary tech development of China, but resilience, resistance, national pride, and enormous derision, even from taxi drivers to academics and diplomats, in terms of the so-called China policy or different containment policies of the US.

So this is really a new paradigm. China used to be passive in terms of appreciating the hyper power and not unleashing their fury when they are mistreated, which is how the Chinese nation at the moment, Judge, is evaluating this new stage of the trade war against China. Before we get to the trade war, the Secretary of Defense was in Japan 10 days ago, and he looked toward Taiwan and threatened China. How does China react to threats like that? I mean, it is inconceivable, I think think that the American military could defeat a Chinese military effort to isolate or take over Taiwan and here we have

the American Secretary of Defense Threatening to do just that just a few miles away Yes, exactly a Secretary of Defense. It doesn't know what ASEAN is and what BRICS are. Fantastic. As for his CV, no wonder, Hag said, Rubio and especially Trump here, they are treated with utmost derision. In terms of a civilization state, 5,000 years like China, which what we were discussing this afternoon with Professor Zhang Weiwei, and incredibly smart PhDs from everywhere.

And they were at the same time, they were stunned by how this new American leadership knows virtually nothing about China. All right, we're hoping that the signal comes back. You were telling us that, okay, the new American leadership knows nothing about China. Pick up from there. Yes, for instance, very few people in the Beltway judge, including members of Team Trump 2.0, know about how the new Silk Roads were started by China, by President Xi in Kazakhstan 12 years ago, in fact, as an overarching Chinese foreign policy mechanism, geopolitical and geoeconomic. And also very few know about the details of the project Made in China 2025. When Trump launched the first batch of sanctions against China at the beginning of Trump 1.0.

These were against Made in China 2025. And what do we see now in Shanghai in terms of Made in China 2025? In 10 high tech domains, China is already number one in seven and going to eighth and soon all 10. Well, let me ask you this. Who is hurt more by American presidentially imposed tariffs of 145%? Chinese manufacturers and consumers or American manufacturers and consumers?

American manufacturers, consumers and all the American multinationals who delocalized around the world, especially to Asia and especially here in China. Explain please. Well, this is a, I would say this is a turbo capitalism process that started decades ago when the American oligarchy, let's put it this way, and I'm being very diplomatic, decided to delocalize American manufacturing to East Asia, to the Asian tigers and later on, especially to China,

and then later on to India or Vietnam, for instance, or both. So obviously American productive capacity in terms of a capitalist power was completely hollowed out and transferred abroad. So expecting that American multinationals can relocate to the US, whole factories, chains of production in a manner of what weeks or months and start producing in the US is absolutely absurd. This is going to take for each of these

factories and these chains of production three, four, five years at least. And China has already way beyond that and in terms of trade partnership the US-China trade relation is a fraction of Chinese exports and Chinese global trade. China trades with the global South and the global majority as a whole. Do you know what President Xi Jinping is doing this week? I'm sure you and our audience knows he's doing a tour. He's in Vietnam, is he not? A mini tour of Southeast Asia, Judge. Three top Southeast Asian nations. Now Malaysia. He left Vietnam, he's going to Malaysia. Why? Because all the 10 members of the ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations,

who is their number one trade partner for each and one of them? China. It's very simple. This afternoon, for instance, we were discussing China is, because of this circus dementia on the tariff issue, they're going to get even closer to their neighbors in ASEAN, in the South, to their neighbors in Central Asia, to the West. All right. Waiting for your internet to come back to us.

Is it back? Yes, it's back. It's great. To their neighbors in the West is where you were There are neighbors in the West and of course West Asia at the moment is a theater of war which for the Chinese is a terrifying prospect because Trade potential trade partners in West Asia are very important. And the most important for them is Iran.

Iran happens to be a BRICS member, a Shanghai Corporation Organization member, and they have a strategic partnership with China, which brings us back to the zillion dollar question of, if there's going to be a Zionist attack against Iran, it will be a Zionist attack against Iran, it will be a Zionist attack against three top bricks because they all have interlocking strategic partnerships.

Will those three top bricks use their militaries to resist a Zionist or American or joint attack on Iran? Iran will, Russia and China, it depends. It's a very complex question, including the provisions in the Russia-Iran strategic partnership signed end of January in Moscow and ratified by the Duma in the past few days. Very, very

important. What we know for sure is if there was an attack, Russia would find ways to help Iran. What Putin describes, it's a beautiful alfamism in fact, military technical measures. And the Russians are very good at that kind of thing. Would the Chinese find military and technical measures with which to aid the Iranians in an attack by the US or Israel?

Nobody can answer this question with certainty, Judge. The Chinese are not a warrior nation, first of all, very, very important. But they will find endless ways to help the Iranian economy, depending how much the Iranian economy would suffer after such an attack, because they are their main partner in West Asia. And it all comes back to the overarching geopolitical and geoeconomic development of China, which is embodied in the New Silk Road, the Belt and Road Initiative. So if there was an attack like that, it would be against Eurasia integration, against the Belt

and Road Initiative by China, against the Russian notion which in Moscow is called Greater Eurasia Partnership. That's the official denomination and against leaders of the global south and the global majority. Of course, for the moment we are in the negotiating stage in Oman. So the first one was not so bad actually, much better than many of us expected. The second meeting is going to be next Saturday in Oman between Witkoff and Araxi, the Iranian foreign minister. So at least they are talking and here in Canada, they hyper appreciate all that. But they don't expect any negotiation coming from the US. And the means that you see around Shanghai and

all over China judge in terms of it's it's it's the title of my latest column a tariff wielding barbarian that could never expect a call from China. Well that was going to be my next question will Donald Trump wait in vain for a call from President Xi. Would you mind if I ask you this question, George? I wouldn't mind. It's always a happy conversation with you. In my opinion, he will wait in vain. It would be like waiting for Godot who never showed up. Absolutely. Absolutely. And this is what not only from President Xi Jinping, the politburo, the academics, Professor Zhang Weiwei, which is extremely well connected. He was discussing this afternoon. And once again, this is the academic elite of China. Fudan University is one of the top universities and in humanities, in history philosophy, for instance,

they are, if not number one, number two. And they are, it's a mix of being stunned, appalled, and at the same time, predictable, because they understand the circus world wrestling a federation aspect of the Trump administration but what but there is something that they simply cannot accept which is China being mistreated and treated with extreme disrespect. China either the government the Communist Party or their investors, their wealthy residents,

owns about a trillion dollars of United States debt, US bonds. What are they going to do with it? That's a weapon that they can use against President Trump, is it not? Yes, it is, Judge. And did you see what happens when the Japanese started to use it? When the Japanese started to move the bond market? The tariffs went away, or they went away everywhere except China. Exactly, Judge. The American oligarchy freaked out completely.

And obviously they picked up the phone, they called Donald Trump and said, you have to stop this now because we are losing money and a lot of money. So if the Chinese do that, it's going to be even worse. Okay, Japan has more US treasured bonds than China, but we are talking about almost a bit in the case of Japan is nearly $1 trillion. In the case of China, if I'm not mistaken, is around 800 and 150 billion. That's a lot of funds. If they start unloading this via their they have direct connections with traders in Wall Street, the Chinese can pick up the phone and call their favorite traders in Wall Street and say, Okay, go for it. They always but they but but this

will be, I would say the the nuclear option. The Chinese are extremely – This would force the American government to raise the interest it pays on these bonds, not only on future bonds, but on bonds that are already out there when they're rolled over. Most of them have a short shelf life, this would drain the American treasury. Absolutely, but at the moment, Judge, they are still not thinking about this possible nuclear option, which they are safeguarding it if they need to use it. They are talking about the opportunity that China has to expand even more their trade footprint all over the global south, the global majority, from their neighbors

here in Asia to Africa to Latin America. And guess what? European chihuahuas are sending a delegation here in June to propose a better trade deal between the European Union and China. Wow. We all believe that. No, exactly. What is the, if you can put your finger on it, the consensus about Donald Trump, whether we're talking cab drivers or academics? about Donald Trump, whether we're talking cab drivers or academics. A joke.

A circus ringmaster, which is what this is. This is the expression that I used in my column. Circus ringmaster in a Chinese way, the really, really hardcore Trump denomination at the moment, all across Chinese social media, Weibo everywhere, is barbarian. And when a Chinese with 5,000 years of history calls an European or an American or a Western a barbarian, that's the lowest of the lowest.

So this is not good for the American president and for but they keep treating Americans royally. There are a lot of American tourists here in in down. Let's put it in downtown Shanghai or around the big towers here. I'm in the heart of the business center and American businesses everywhere American businessman. You hear American accents everywhere doing the continuing to do business here. And American residents here, many of them are absolutely appalled because they know that their business will end up suffering, of

course. But the bulk of the Chinese, and here in Shanghai, to feel the spirit of Shanghai is amazing. This is electric, electric in a New York style sense. And the electrification that we used to feel in New York in decades past, now you feel it here, even walking in the streets. It's an absolutely fascinating phenomenon. And you can feel it that you are in the capital of the future and in the capital of the big superpower

of the future. You feel it in your bones and you feel it in the air. Wow. Let me ask you about another of your fields that you examined closely and that is the Kremlin. What is the Kremlin's reaction to Donald Trump's experimentations with tariffs? Well, it's that famous metaphor which is attributed sometimes to Sun Tzu, sometimes to Lao Tzu. I am by the side of the river and I'm watching the river flow and sooner or later the cadaver of my enemy will be floating by.

That's the Russian observing, not necessarily literally of course, but they know that maybe there will be the cadaver of a unilateral order floating by the river sooner rather than later. But at the same time, Judge, they are involved in this immensely complex negotiation of trying to solve the Ukrainian riddle. And at the moment, the mood in Moscow and the mood in the Kremlin is relatively, relatively upbeat.

We don't know what's going to happen next. Steve Witkoff said just the other night, it may have been last night on Fox News that he met with President Putin for five hours. Now, Witkoff is not a professional diplomat. Five hours is a long, long time to be negotiating with Vladimir Putin. And the negotiations were on other bigger matters

than just the Ukraine war. This is right up Donald Trump's alley, who notwithstanding the ignorance he manifested by imposing the tariffs, nevertheless understands the benefits to the world of a reset, a commercial reset, as well as a political and military one between the United States and Russia? Absolutely correct. A commercial reset, a geopolitical reset, and spheres of influence. There's no question that Putin explained to Witkov in detail, five hours. explained to Witkoff in detail, five hours. Look, we're going to have a sort of IAOTA 2.0 sooner or later.

It's going to be you, us, and the Chinese. And we're going to define spheres of influence. We know our spheres of influence very well in the post-Soviet space. We don't want to infringe on your spheres of influence, let's say in the Atlanticist nexus, or even in the Americans. But you have to respect our spheres of influence.

And in terms of China, you have to respect China in Asia. China is the big Asian superpower, and you have to respect that. The only leader in the world who can tell that to Trump directly, for the moment indirectly via Witkoff is Putin. Absolutely. The neocons reject that. I mean, that's the core of their existence is that America must be dominant

and Chinese influence and Russian influence must shrink. So Trump is turning a battleship or an aircraft carrier 180 degrees on a dime because he's dealing with an establishment. Those neocons, his secretary of state, his secretary of defense, his director of CIA, his national security advisor, his Director of CIA, his National Security Advisor, his people closest to him. He's dealing with the heart and soul of neocons. Absolutely, Judge. And he's dealing with the heart and soul of the neocon silos of power all across the deep states in every different area of the deep state. And they won't let go. And they won't let go of exceptionalism in terms of the Americans,

the Monroe doctrine. They will never let it go. And of course, unilateral domination and what we say go, our way or the highway. You cannot do our way or the highway with both Russia and China. Got it. And maybe some of these silos are starting to, you know, read the tea leaves. And Trump, we can even say, Judge,

that his domestic challenges coming from these silos in the deep state, they are even more hardcore than his international challenges, which from the point of view of the American system are this triad, what I call the new Primakov triangle, Russia, Iran and China. Updating what Yevgeny Primakov at the late 90s said was the beginning of the RIC, India at the time. Nowadays, Iran is much more powerful and significant than India. India is still on the fence. They don't know if they're going to be a colony

of the Anglo-Americans or if they're gonna be part of the Eurasia integration. Not even the Indian elites know where they're going next. But this new Primakov triangle with Russia and China, and also, let's say they've got Iran's back, the war or the overall framing of the war by Trump so far is against these three, which happens to be three bricks and the top three bricks in terms of importance. But the deep state and his enemies inside the deep state, they see these three as total threats against American domination. So they must be

smashed geoeconomically and geopolitically. It's absolutely impossible and many of these silos are imposing on Trump. You have to destroy China geoeconomically. You have to destroy Iran militarily and any accommodation with Russia. No we gonna say how much you can accommodate with Russia. But they to destroy Iran militarily and any accommodation with Russia. We're going to say how much you can accommodate with Russia.

My dear friend, I misspoke earlier when I said you're in Beijing, you're in the heart of the Chinese commercial development in Shanghai where more construction goes on there in that city than in most countries in the world. Thank you very much. Thank you very much for accommodating our time, my man.

We'll talk to you again. Nice. All the best. You know that very funny judge. Do you know that my server on my VPN at the moment is called USA for China three? Wow. I would say only in America, but it wouldn't make sense. Thank you, Pepe. All the best, my friend. the Coming up later today at two o'clock this afternoon, Colonel Douglas McGregor at three o'clock this afternoon, Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski at four o'clock this afternoon, not sure where on the planet he is, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, judge in the Palo Alto for Judging Freedom. MUSIC