Judging Freedom - Pepe Escobar: The Resistance Rages

Episode Date: October 1, 2024

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Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Tuesday, October 1st, 2024. From midnight in Moscow, as I've been promising everyone all day, is my dear friend, a brilliant, courageous journalist and a wonderful human being, Pepe Escobar. Pepe, welcome here and thank you for joining us at this time of day in your world. I have a lot of questions here to ask you about the reaction in the axis of resistance to the murder of Hassan Nasrallah, but we know what the Iranian reaction has been, at least the first part of it. So let's start with that. The latest reports are that Iran fired between 180 and 200 missiles at military and intelligence targets, not at civilians, in Tel Aviv, and that about a dozen or so of these missiles got through. There's also a lot of debris in Tel Aviv due to the clash between the Israeli and American defensive missiles and the Iranian offensive

ones. Obviously, they crash in midair and debris falls. There are no reports of Israeli casualties. How do you read the significance or lack of significance in the Iranian missile assault tonight? Well, I would like to start, George, with a very important information that we confirmed maybe an hour, an hour and a half ago. Please. It's from one of our sources in Iranian intel. Some of us foreigners met this source in our previous visits to Tehran. He is trustworthy, he's not corrupt. Yes, there is corruption inside the IRGC. Yes, there are

generals who are bought with Samsung Knights full of cash, it's true. But there are people who are very, very serious. And what he told us confirmed something that many of us have been discussing since the murder of Nasrallah this past weekend. Because President Pezeshkin, it's so naive that it, you know, it beggars belief. He went public basically saying that, well, we trusted the Americans. They promised us that there will be a ceasefire in Gaza if we didn't retaliate against the murder of Haniyeh in Tehran. How can a president of Iran trust the Americans? This is absolutely impossible. And this generated a groundswell of rejection among Iranian public opinion and especially among the IRGC.

So what happened before the missile attack today. There was practically a frontal clash between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Pozeshkin. When you say a frontal clash, you mean verbal words with each other face to face? No, of course, as foreigners, we don't know the details, obviously. What our source told us is that Kemeny was furious because of the breach of intelligence in Hezbollah, first of all. Second, that Pozhetskian could be fooled by this empty American promise. And number three, that one of the top IRGC generals was also killed by the 85 bunker buster bombs at that building, at that secret meeting in Beirut. So Khamenei, of course, he controls Iranian foreign policy. We all know that.

But he defers a lot to the presidency. That was the case during the previous presidency, where we had a very, very strong president in Iran, unlike... Pesachkin is weak, essentially, and he's basically controlled by Zarif. Our audience remembers Zarif dealing with John Kerry in 2015 in Vienna negotiating the GCP away. Zarif was always an appeaser and he always wanted some sort of accommodation with the West, assuming that especially the American sanctions would be

alleviated. We all know what happened afterwards. And these sanctions will not go away anytime soon. But the problem is Zarif controls Pazashkin from behind. Pazashkin is Zarif's man. And obviously, the IRGC, these people are much more hardcore. And of course, they are directly aligned with Khamenei. Khamenei is the conceptualizer of everything in Iran, and the supervisor, of course. So, according to our source, he got extremely furious by this chain of events. So, that's why the response this time, since the assassination of Nasrallah, which was on Friday night, let's put it this way, it took only three days in practice. Because Khamenei said, no, we have to retaliate and we have to retaliate now for everything that happened since the assassination of Haniyeh.

And the IRGC said, of course, this is what we wanted from the beginning. So apparently a few heads rolled these past two days, in fact. No details, of course. But the IRGC took control completely of the response. They already had this, of course, equalized, mathematically equalized the design, etc. And that's why it was so swift, only three, four days after the assassination of Nasrallah. So this is the most important, I would say, the background for all of us to understand why it happened and especially who ordered it. And there was another chain of events, Judge, yesterday that was amazing, if you allow me. I'll try to be very brief.

Prime Minister Mishustin from Russia was in Tehran yesterday discussing with Pesachka. They were not discussing only energy deals, connectivity corridors, the strategic deal that they're going to sign probably after Brexit in Kazan in three weeks from now. They were also discussing politics, geopolitics, and Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza. Yesterday night, before midnight here, Putin rushed to the Kremlin, really rushed to the Kremlin,

for an unscheduled emergency meeting, nearly, practically midnight in Moscow yesterday night. Today, earlier today, Ayatollah Khamenei said that he is going to conduct Friday prayers this coming Friday in Tehran,

which is something that he never does. You know when was the last time he did it? After the response to the assassination of General Soleimani. When we put this all together, we could all hope something is up and something big is up. With whom, if you know, was President Putin meeting at midnight in the Kremlin? We don't know, Judge. It was a Security Council meeting.

And what is the likelihood that Russia will provide Ukraine with military assistance? We know they've provided defensive. Will they provide offensive? It's up in the air. Obviously, the Kremlin is not going to say it. The Russian Minister of Defense is not going to say it, but it's up in the air because the deal that they are, this strategic partnership that they have been negotiating for over two years now includes military exchanges at the highest level. You have MOD and IRGC going back and forth between Moscow and Tehran all the time for the past two years, all the time. If I remember well, I've seen at least three or four Iranian delegations here for the last year and a half, for instance. And, of course, this would imply that technology of the best Russian missiles

will and would be transferred to Iran. Not that Iran needs it. The missiles that went through the Iron Dome and the Aero system today, they were the Iranian hypersonic, the Fata-2, in fact. The ballistics that they launched were the old ones to saturate Iron Dome. It was perfect. Strategically, it was perfect again. They saturated Iron Dome, and the missiles that really mattered,

the hypersonics, they went through. There is an amazing image from one of the, I think, Iranian agencies that I saw a few minutes ago of a hypersonic actually on impact near Tel Aviv. And apparently the Nevatim airbase, which was one of the main targets, was completely devastated. Of course, the Israelis will never admit that. Is this a military airbase? Yes, this is the military airbase that the planes that took off

and were involved in the assassination of Nasrallah, they took off from Nevatin. And this is where the F-35s are. The hunger for the F-35s is at Nevatin. Apparently, Nevatin was hit by hypersonic missiles. What do you think we can expect in the near future, either from Israel against Iran or from Iran, perhaps plus Russia, against Israel? All bets are off now. Well, the Israelis are threatening a response even tonight. I'm not sure this is going to happen tonight. It's 11, Middle East at the time. There will be a response and the IRGC is already saying

and I got a quote from one high IRGC official. He's saying, well, if the Americans support Israel in their attack against Iran, which they know it's coming, we're going to bomb American bases in West Asia, in the Middle East. So the RGC is now threatening direct hits on American bases. Do we know exactly how many missiles went out tonight? The American government says between 180 and 200.

The Israelis say the same thing. Yes. An Indian newspaper said 400. Some of my viewers are writing in that their sources are telling them 400. Do we know exactly what went out? Exactly. Yes. In fact, your readers are correct. The Iranian agencies, news agencies are talking about 400. Absolutely. And some were the old-time ones that were intended to draw out the Iron Dome, and some were the super-fast ones that got through. Absolutely correct. Yes, they overloaded the system, which is exactly what they did in their previous response,

for all of you remember. And, of course, if they launched between 10 and 12 hypersonics, they did the job. This is exactly what they wanted. And especially Nevatim. For them, Nevatim was very, very important. Because for the

IRGC, Nevatim were all the major raids against Lebanon, against Hezbollah especially, they take off from Nevatim. So if those F-35s were destroyed, Iranian news agencies are saying at least four or five F-35s are destroyed. The Israelis don't seem to have any fear of Hamas or of Hezbollah. Do they fear the Iranians? They do, of course.

And in terms of Hezbollah, judge, they fear Hezbollah. They fear Hezbollah if there is a ground invasion. Because even IDF, General State, we're going to be slaughtered if we try a land invasion of South Lebanon. So what they do? They bomb. It's a bombing machine. It's a killing machine. This is what they do, essentially. And it's unconfirmed, of course, so far, but these IDF troops that were on the border with Lebanon tried a little incursion. Apparently, it went really, really, really bad, the whole thing.

But we don't have any confirmation, even from Hezbollah. What was the reaction amongst the resistance to the two events that occurred in New York the other day, the bellicose, defiant speech given by Prime Minister Netanyahu to an empty General Assembly chamber, followed by his going to an office in the UN and ordering a murder 5,000 miles away, which was carried out. Absolutely. And this information circulated all across the axis of resistance. Everybody, and even in Jordan, for instance, which is ruled by a fifth columnist, a traitor of the Arab world in general, the little king, and the majority of the population, of course, is Palestinian.

Everybody knows that. And in Saudi Arabia, in Bah king, and the majority of the population, of course, is Palestinian. Everybody knows that. And in Saudi Arabia, in Bahrain, everywhere, not to mention Turkey. So this information is available to everybody. How the strike against that Hezbollah General Command building in Beirut was organized and was ordered by Netanyahu inside the UN. Everybody knows that. So, of course, this led our friend Erdogan. Erdogan is, little by little, he's upping his game.

All he has to do is make a phone call and turn off the oil. Exactly, because it's 40% of the oil still. And as far as we know, at least some of it is still flowing. So it's Erdogan's rhetoric. I'm going to Istanbul this weekend, and

I'm going to ask everybody inside, is this real? Or again, he's hedging his bets. Here's from CNN. No surprise. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says Iran, quote, made a big mistake and, quote, will pay for launching a missile attack on the country. They must have struck something significant, as you said, or it wouldn't have been this angry.

There's no question, George, Nevatim base. There's no question about it. And they cannot possibly admit it. How much of a setback is it for them? They must have other air bases and other jets that they can use. They do, but this is the main base. Got it. In the middle of the desert.

Got it. So this is the main base. Got it. In the middle of the desert. Got it, got it. So this is an enormous setback. Is the resistance stronger today than it was a week ago? This is an excellent question because between Fridays, during the weekend, the mood all across the axis of resistance and in many places in the global south was dejected. Everybody was dejected. It's extreme sadness and people were actually mourning. And there was a sort of consensus that the face of the resistance had disappeared, which is true, because Nasrallah,

this mix of a fatherly figure, a very wise old man, and a fabulous politician, moderate. He was always very, very moderate. No wonder he was so popular in the Sunni Arab street, not only in the Shiite universe, in the Sunni Arab street and in places, Islamic lands very far from Arabia, like Malaysia and Indonesia, for instance. Nasrallah was a sort of a political Islam pop icon everywhere, because of all these

qualities, of course, and because he was an excellent articulator, a fabulous orator as well, and he was never threatening anything. He said, look, we are defending a sovereignty of Lebanon, and we are defending a free, independent, sovereign Palestine. These are our two priorities. He was always repeating that over and over again. So obviously he was a threat because he was the main obstacle for Israel to, let's say, finish off Project Gaza and Project Palestine, which is basically exterminate everybody, expel everybody, and take over all their lands, including the West Bank. And, of course, very, very important,

Nasrallah was more or less, indirectly, he was offered a deal. He said, look, the Americans, essentially, and their messengers in the Persian Gulf, for instance, Qataris especially, look, there will be a ceasefire if you abandon this obsession that you have of supporting Palestine all the way. So there will be a ceasefire. And then we're going to see what happens next. And Nasrallah said, no, my number one priority is to defend Gaza and Palestine as a whole. So he was offered a sort of sweetener deal. Who offered him that deal? Well, there are different interpretations. One is that it came directly from White House advisors.

Another one is that it came via the Saudis and the Emiratis. And another one was that this was relayed through the usual channel of communication between the US and Iran, which is the Swiss embassy in Tehran, and then it got to Hezbollah. So there are three possibilities. We don't have a smoking gun. What do you expect will happen next? An escalation, the involvement of the US military, a land invasion of Hezbollah, the back and forth, back and forth ballistic missiles. What do you think will happen next? Judge, probably a back and forth. The Israeli retaliation probably is going to be imminent or within the next few days. And the Iranians already said, okay, our response next time is going to be, in their own words, IRGC officials.

100 times harder than this time. They have enough missiles to do this very very painfully you know they they could launch easily another swarm of ballistics that they have you know thousands and 50 or 60 hypersonics and then we're gonna have you know re this this is gonna be horrible and because they already proved twice that the Iron Dome, in many aspects, is a paper dome. The Iranians are making estimates that this time the intercepted missiles was something like 70%. Last time, apparently, it was 90%. So now it's 70%. If you really overload the Iron Dome, you can fall between 70% and 50%.

And then the hypersonics go in. The American media reported that during the Iranian assault, Prime Minister Netanyahu was in the air in a jet. No, he was in a bunker. The best information that we have is that he was in a bunker for hours, not in the air. It doesn't make sense, in fact, why he would be in an airspace where mis-traversed by mis- I guess it was just guessing. What is Russia's interest in this? Has Russia signed a defense pact with Iran yet, or is that going to be signed at BRICS at the end of the month? It's going to be signed probably after BRICS in another visit by Pesachkin to Moscow. It's not going to be during Brexit. This is a bilateral, a very important bilateral deal that they have been negotiating once again for almost two years. And it includes

very close military, not a military alliance, but like the strategic partnership Russia-China that includes a military component is the same thing. And the most important thing is that it's a trilateral strategic partnership now, because Iran and China, they also have a similar deal, which is more geoeconomic in the case of Iran-China. So, and once again, everybody knows, these are the three existential threats to the United States, the new axis of evil. And the new axis of evil, they are interconnected intimately.

So you can imagine the despair in some silos of power and knowledge in the Beltway. Switching gears for just a few moments, I've taken a lot of your time. Is there pressure on President Putin to bring a dramatic and quick end to the two and a half year special military operation in Ukraine? Depending on where is this pressure coming from, from certain, I would say certain silos inside the intel agencies, yes. No question. Some people in the Security Council, they all like things to be much more hardcore than they are at the moment. Yes.

But this is not how Putin makes decisions. He's cool, calculating, legalistic. He takes his time. He always tries to find some sort of, not accommodation, but in the case of Ukraine, he already proposed something a few months ago, which was judged by a lot of well-informed people here in Moscow, making too many concessions. But he actually put that on the table, which basically would freeze the situation in the battleground as it is at the moment, which from the point of view of Russia would be a defeat.

There's no question about that. But maybe he was just enticing, especially the Americans, to come to the table and then discuss for real what would be the final deal. But now, after Kursk, the whole thing changed completely. And they're not in a hurry. They know that the mopping up of Kursk is going to be finished in a matter of probably more weeks than months. What's happening in the battleground? Wow! Ugledar has fallen. Not fallen. Ugledar was conquered by Russia after I don't know how many months, 20 months. This thing has been going on forever in Ogledog. And now Pokrovsk. And then after that, as the Ukrainians admit, there is nothing.

There's just empty step all the way to the western part of Ukraine. So they're not in a hurry. And the tactics are not going to change. It's the same thing. Meat grinder, very slowly, like a crab, you know. And, of course, with the tsunami of artillery. Let me add to the tsunami of artillery. Winter.

And general winter. Isn't the Ukrainian energy supply and infrastructure incapable of delivering enough fuel to keep people basically warm this winter? Absolutely right. At least 70% of their electricity potential is gone. So for them, it's going to be an absolutely horrible winter. So that's... when you pile up all these reasons, that explains why the Kremlin and the Minister of Defense, they are not in a hurry. And of course there are two things very, very important in the next two months, which will condition what's going to happen next. The major decisions at the BRICS summit in three weeks, and of course, the American presidential elections.

So they're not, especially now, they're not in a hurry. They're just, it's wait and see. And of course, they have to make sure that the BRICS summit is a success. And all the major decisions, once again, it's very important to remind everyone, they have not been taken yet. And these are, wow, everything, geoeconomic, payment systems. Of course, every day we are discussing, ah, there's going to be a new payment system. Everybody wants to join.

There's going to be presented to the leaders yet, and it's less than three weeks. Very interesting. Will you be there for the BRICS Summit? Of course, of course, of course. This is going to be, Judge, this is the most important thing this year, this whole year. And we'll condition what's going to happen in the next few years. And don't forget, the BRICS are meeting in the middle of at least, what, three wars going on? Right.

And they need a consensual position of, you know, let's say the BRICS as the most important emerging force in the Global South, they need to be straight to the point about these forever wars. So they will need to, especially because Iran is part of BRICS now officially. Iran is a member of BRICS now. That changes everything. And all the nations in the Global South who are the first tier and the second tier to become part of BRICS+, the next expansion of BRICS, they understand the Russian position, at least in Ukraine, and they all condemn what Israel is doing in Gaza and in Lebanon.

Pepe Eskapar, thank you, my dear friend. I know it's the middle of the night where you are. You're as sharp as can be, as well as charming. It's early. Even when we discuss these awful events, you have such a great sense of humor. Thank you very much for joining us. I hope you can come back next week. I hope we can talk to you about Bricks while you're there. Maybe you'll

even have your arm around some important person who speaks Russian and you can translate. Absolutely. We'll be talking in Kazan. That's a deal. Great. Thank you, Pepe. All the best. Thank you. All the best. Thank you very much.

Wow. A great man with unbelievable sources. At 6 o'clock tonight Eastern on the military aspects of what Iran did or attempted to do to Israel today, the best person we can have for that, Scott Ritter. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. We'll be right back.