Judging Freedom - Pepe Escobar : World Reactions to Putin Peace Plan

Episode Date: June 18, 2024

Pepe Escobar : World Reactions to Putin Peace PlanSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Tuesday, June 18th, 2024. The inimitable Pepe Escobar is here with us on President Putin's peace offering and the rejection of it by the West. But first this. You all know that I am a paid spokesperson for Lear Capital, but I'm also a customer, a very satisfied customer. About a year ago, I bought gold and it's now increased in value 23%. So $100 invested in gold a year ago is now worth $123. If you have $100 in the bank, it still shows $100,

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Thank you for your time and for what I know will be your analysis and your personality. Thank you. precise offer of peace, said what he needed and said what he would do, and said he would do it immediately as soon as the Ukrainians and the West accepted it and agreed primarily on geographical jurisdiction and on no NATO in Ukraine. It was almost immediately rejected and derided by the West. Before we get into how the West misunderstands President Putin and the Russian mind, how was President Putin's offer received in Russia, in Moscow? It's an excellent question because there's a serious debate raging here. There's a lot of criticism coming from business circles, from, I wouldn't say diplomats, but people linked to the security services, to the security agencies, some military correspondents on the ground across Donbass.

Okay, the criticism breaks down essentially, it's too generous an offer. It's basically a slight upgrade of the negotiations in Istanbul in April 2022 that were practically signed on the dotted line until, of course, the Americans intervened via their emissary, Boris Johnson. It allows NATO too much leeway. For instance, it allows Ukraine to have an army. And we all know if that happens, it's going to be a NATO army. That's very, very dangerous. Not one word on Odessa

or Transnistria or the Black Sea, for that matter. But we can turn this around. And all of us have been discussing every possible circle. Of course, Putin and the Security Council, they knew that this would be rejected as it was. In fact, it was a matter of less than two hours, I would say, was formally rejected by NATO's Stoltenberg. Predictable. Rejection by the sweaty sweatshirt in Kiev doesn't matter because he is illegitimate, illegal, and Putin and the Russians won't negotiate with Zelensky, period. They might negotiate with the Verkona Rada, the Ukrainian parliament.

And that's interesting because several members of the Verkona Rada actually started studying the proposal. So there is some margin of maneuver. We don't know where this is going to lead, of course. And from the Russian side, as soon as there was, let's say, the official NATO rejection, everybody from Nebensia at the UN, Naryshkin, the head of foreign intelligence here, the people at the Duma, they were saying, look, this is the last chance saloon. There won't be any other offers. If you reject it, if the collective West rejects the US and NATO. And of course, Kiev attached to it.

The next one will be a demand for unconditional surrender. And we'll continue to do what we are doing in the battlefield. Well, maybe enough to placate the dissent here in Moscow, which does exist. And in terms, especially when you talk to some businessmen, they always come back to the same motto. This is an almost war, their own definition, and we need a decapitation strike, which happens to be the position expressed publicly by Dmitry Medvedev,

but not by the other members of the high hierarchy, you see. So the bottom line, there is dissent. They expect the rejection, and they know that the summer ahead is going to be volcanic in every aspect. Well, you're using some very, very strong English words, decapitation and volcanic. Hold on to them for a minute. We're going to play the core, the most important 60 seconds of President Putin's comments in which he outlines the terms for peace. And as you pointed out, there's no mention of Odessa. There's no mention of the Black Sea.

He does use an interesting word, negotiations. Take a listen. The West is ignoring our interests and at the same time forbidding Kiev to negotiate, all the while hypocritically calling us to some kind of negotiations. It just seems foolish. Ukrainian troops must be fully withdrawn from Donetsk and Luhansk peoples' republics and from the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. And I draw your attention to the fact that it includes the entire territory of these regions within their administrative borders, as they existed

when they joined Ukraine. Once Kiev declares its readiness and starts the genuine withdrawal of its troops from these areas, as well as officially notify about the abandonment of plans to join NATO, our side will immediately, literally at the same minute, follow the order to cease fire and start negotiations. I guess he is willing then, the last two phrases, the last three words, and start negotiations. This is not a take it or leave it. This as I understand it correct me if you see it differently a starting point for

the normalization of relations is it not? Yes, you're absolutely correct and that's why he's being criticized because the offer is too generous the fact is he knows and people who follow what's going on in Donbass know, that NATO will never accept the total loss of Donetsk and Luhansk, maybe, but never Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

All four out of the question. So it says if he introduced this notion in the proposal, knowing already that, of course, it will be completely rejected, but it's on the record. Very, very important. This is something that political leadership in the West don't understand. He does make think in terms of five, six, seven moves ahead. It is chess

play, just like the Chinese play Go. It's a mix of chess and Go at the same time. And no wonder they discuss in their strategic partnership, which is officially comprehensive strategic partnership, they discuss strategic moves in detail from the level of the strategic partnership, which is officially comprehensive strategic partnership.

They discuss strategic moves in detail from the level of the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Foreign Relations, up to Putin and Xi on the phone virtually twice a week. Sorry, twice a month at least. So he's being extremely careful, accommodating, generous, knowing at the same time there will be rejection. And then comes the different scenarios to fight what will be, let's say, a sort of triple strategy by the U.S.-NATO in this next few months. The possibility of launching a false flag and blaming it on Russia, this is openly discussed here among intel agencies as well, monopolizing a sort of

foreign legion of terror and the number one actors would be ISIS-K, ISIS-Khorasan, which many of them were transported from Syria to Afghanistan and parts of Tajikistan. And of course, the third part of this strategy, actually stealing Russian assets via that famous $50 billion loan by the Americans to Ukraine, which is not an American loan. Basically, this is Russian money that will be confiscated by the Europeans. They will do the heavy lifting. So the Russians are pretty much aware that what's ahead is really, really heavy metal coming from the West. But, okay, so they had an initial preoccupation, which was to preempt the Swiss Kabuki. They did it.

Because the winner of the Swiss Kabuki, without even showing up in Switzerland, was Putin. Everybody was discussing. Right. And very important, Judge, five Brits did not sign the final declaration in Switzerland. If I remember correctly, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, India, and South Africa, they did not sign the vacuous final declaration, meaning that it was really a kabuki. It was a kabuki in the sense that it was just a meaningless dance,

a show that once the lights are out, the show is over, and it exists just in people's memories, not in reality. Do you expect that either by his own choice or in reaction to pressure imposed upon him, that President Putin will level Kiev, as you called it the last time here, a decapitation? No. This is what Medvedev unplugged, the way I call it, would like to happen. This is something we can say that some people at the FSB and the SVR, Foreign Intelligence, would like to happen. But this is not what extremely calculating, legalistic Putin would do. Definitely not. And some other people who are very influential in the Security Council agree with him.

Shoigu, for instance, agrees with him. And Shoigu now has an important position in the Security Council, former Minister of Defense. Gerasimov agrees with Putin, essentially. Gerasimov is the gradualist crab, meat grinder, heavy artillery approach and accumulating a very slow advance in the battlefield and decimating the fourth Ukrainian army in two years and no more not enough weapons and no more Wunderwaffen, nothing. So this is the gradualist approach by the Ministry of Defense.

There are serious problems with that. I'll give you just one of them. The attacks on the Black Sea Fleet. This is extremely serious. And we cannot talk about it here in Russia. Official media cannot talk it. Only independent telegram channels talk about it. They complain that Ukraine monopolizes the narrative because they pinpoint their attacks and then there's enormous propaganda all across the world.

Why can't official media talk about it? Why has this become such a problem? Very good question, because the Ministry of Defense, there's essentially censorship. So it's considered state secret. Is the Ministry of Defense adequately defending the Russian fleet in the Black Sea? Extremely sensitive question. Okay. Don't get yourself in trouble. I know, Judge. From the point of view of an independent outsider, I risk to say it, and this is my own personal position

I don't think so and I discussed this with some pretty well informed people here and they agree and they are even more radical in fact and if you read some of the military channels in Russia wow

they are absolutely furious like even you know they are not enough hangars to protect SU-57s, that kind of stuff. Not to mention to protect the Black Sea Fleet, which some of it has been exiled already. It's not in Sebastopol anymore. But this is an extremely sensitive subject because it's considered state secret. I get it. But it would profit the Minister of Defense to do some tweaking in their soft power narrative, at least, which

they don't have, by the way. Here's a very un-soft power narrative from an extremely well respected person in the Russian government. Cut number one. You know, we don't ask the West to trust us. Trust is not something which is

illustrating the Western positions, the Western actions, and today there were many examples. I don't want to recite those failures to deliver on the promises, those failures to deliver on the legal obligations. Frankly, I don't care whether the West trusts us or not. The West must understand the real situation. They don't understand anything except real politics. Let them go to the people. You are democracies, right?

Ask the people what the West should do in response to Putin's proposals. What do you think? He lost his patience, George. Yes, he did lose his patience. It appears President Putin has not lost his patience, but the people around him have. Yes, and Lavrov is a gentleman. He's like a Taoist monk.

You must tell him that the next time you shake his hand. dealing with those lunatics. Tell him that the next time you shake his hand. Dealing with these lunatics from the Beltway to Brussels, you need to be a Taoist monk. Otherwise, you know, you go crazy. But it's not only Lavrov. Everybody, Ryabkov, the number one Sherpa for BRICS, which is one of the deputy foreign ministers as well. And when we met him already a few months ago, he's already saying, look, we tried everything.

We are exasperated. It's impossible to have a dialogue with the Americans and with the people in Brussels, especially NATO. Let me remind you how impossible that is. Here is Secretary General Stoltenberg of NATO, followed by Secretary of Defense Austin of the United States. Cuts five and seven. It's not for Ukraine to withdraw forces from Ukrainian territory. Det er ikke for Ukraina å fordre forhold fra ukrainsk territorium. Det er for Russia å fordre forhold fra ukrainsk land. Dette er et forhold som mener at Russia bør ha rett til å ford right to occupy even more Ukrainian land.

All the four provinces that they claim are not Ukrainian. He is not in any position to dictate to Ukraine what they must do to bring about a peace. I think, you know, that's exactly the kind of behavior that we don't want to see. We don't want to see a leader of one country wake up one day and decide that he wants to erase borders and annex the territory of his neighbor. That's not the world that any of us want to live in. And so I think, you know, he is not, in my view, not in a position to dictate to Ukraine what it must do to pursue peace. Boy, the United States has been dictating to the world what the world must do to please United States exceptionalism since the end of World War II.

Do the Western leaders understand the Russian mind, the Russian mentality? Do they understand President Putin? No, absolutely not. First of all, because they don't understand the other. Like, you know, these people never read Lévi-Strauss, for that matter, which would be required reading even in humanities, you know, even undergraduate studies. You need to understand Lévi-Strauss when he talks about the other. Basic anthropology. No, forget it.

They consider everybody else as inferiors. They still think that they are living in that famous period from 1945 to the end of the 60s, early 70s. They don't understand the reorganization of the system of international relations that is being attempted by Russia, China especially, and the BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Eurasian Economic Union, the Belt and Road Initiative by China, none of that. They see all these initiatives as subversive, as counter rules-based international order, and they should be fought against. And worse, existential threats.

Existential threat to the rules-based international order, obviously. So everything is a threat. And in fact, now the whole global majority for these elites is a threat. So 88% of the globe's population is a threat, in fact. This is something that we see in everything that Austin says, Stoltenberg says, their very, very faithful asset, von der Leyen at the European Commission says, which, by the way, I have some breaking news about von der Leyen. Let's hear it, please. Can I give it a go? Yes. This is something that if an average European voter, I would say very few know about this. When they learn about this next week, they're going to be beyond furious.

Guess what's going on? After the results of the European elections, which is basically governments in place have been, you know, people fed up, go away. And obviously, the right, the extreme right, the center right, the soul right, the crypto right, etc. They had better voting virtually across the board. On Monday, there's going to be a private dinner in Brussels. Private. Nobody gets in, only heads of state of the 27 and their representatives, if they cannot go. They are going to elect the next president of the European Commission. And guess what's going to happen?

There are no other candidates. They are going to re-elect, re-appoint the unelected Ursula von der Leyen for a second mandate. This means that everything that happened in these European parliamentary elections doesn't mean absolutely anything, because the decision to appoint the most important official who actually carries an issues policy regarding the whole of Europe is appointed in a private dinner. So the elites at the private dinner will thumb their noses to the hundreds of millions of voters who told them that they, the voters, are fed up with the elites. Absolutely.

That's it. That's the headline, in fact. And when they wake up in a few days and they know what happened. But we come back to the same problem. They have bills to pay. They barely reach the end of the month. Their savings disappeared. Unlike the US where people can live with 15 credit cards, people in Europe don't have 15 credit cards.

When they go down in the bank, they go down in the bank, period. They cannot roll over their debt. It's a completely different system. They are being expelled from city centers or the best parts of the capitals. They have to live a 40-minute train commute or a two-hour commute every day. Impoverishment of middle classes across the board. Ultra-high taxes. Price of energy 100%, 200%, 200% higher.

And, of course, the number one Rousseau foe promoting total war against Russia is going to be back in power for another five years. Wow. Where do you see the war in Ukraine going? It's now the middle of June 2024. Where will we be by Christmas time? going extra slow, rather slively slow, or are we going to have a blitzkrieg in some nodes across the front lines, or we keep doing what we're doing, which is extra slow. It's like we capture one village a week. If we go on like this, this war will go until the year 3000. But the most, I would say that the key factor in this summer of living dangerously ahead of us is the possibility of a very serious direct strike with storm shadows or sculp missiles inside Russia, plus Russian civilian casualties. This will be the game-changer. So we don't know. And this will condition, of course, the response by the Ministry of Defense. It will alter the response of the Ministry of Defense. For the moment, they adopt the business

as usual approach, which is, by the way, heavily criticized here as well. The decapitation strike gang, they, okay, that's it. Let's finish this war before the end of the year. Remember Shoigu last year? He said on the record that SMU would end in 2025. So the calculation of the Ministry of Defense a few months ago is that this thing would go on for another eight months at least, nine months, even another year. There's no evidence that they changed these calculations. So these calculations would be changed by one of these horrible possible attacks, including a terrorist attack just like the Krakow terrorist attack a few months ago,

which could happen again. Yesterday, for instance, I was discussing, we were discussing Turkey with a group of analysts at the Ministry of Education, but then we started discussing the possibility of these ISIS-K fighters from Syria who are now scattered a little bit, a little bit in Tajikistan, a little bit in Kyrgyzstan, they could do a mega crocos all over again because these networks are still there. This is the number one danger. This is one of the reasons why your presence in Moscow and availability to us and unique analysis is so valuable, my dear friend. Thank you. Always a pleasure. We are big fans and we have been for a long time. But as the audience knows, we have yet to meet in person, but we will change that.

We will change that soon I hope you can join us I hope you can join us again next week Pepe thank you thank you very much all the best my friend thank you coming up later today at 2 o'clock eastern

Phil Giraldi at 3 o'clock eastern Karen Kwiatkowski. At five o'clock Eastern, you remember him, Ryan Dawson, the young whippersnapper. We'll see what the youth movement thinks about all of this. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thank you.