Judging Freedom - Prof. Gilbert Doctorow: Europe Stands Alone

Episode Date: February 26, 2025

Prof. Gilbert Doctorow: Europe Stands AloneSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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what leverage do President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer have with President Trump? Not much. They are respected in a way that Donald does not respect the Canadians, for example, and all the, and Germany, for example. He has a certain romantic inspiration with the United Kingdom, so he is not about to insult the prime minister the way he did Angela Merkel during his first term. As for Macron, I don't think that he feels very comfortable with Macron, but Macron has nothing, nothing to offer him.

And I think what came out of a meeting they had in the White House and the press conference which followed it, which was easily available on YouTube by a variety of carriers, showed that Macron thought that he had done mission accomplished and that he had brought Donald Trump online for the European role in the post-peace Ukraine. But as even a Russia hostile news organization like the Financial Times commented yesterday morning, Donald Trump had not been forthcoming. He had not committed the United States to anything, even if Macron said that he thought he did. Very interesting. Why would the Europeans even expect Trump to include them in negotiations with

the Russians? Well, they are committed. They have taken enormous expenses in following a line that was set down by the Biden administration. They have spent a lot, and they still have the prospect of spending a great deal more if they are involved in the post-peace situation. Now, let's make a division here between the leaders of the countries and the national interests involved. Just as in your show, there's a lot of discussion about... Let me stop you. Did you say there's a gap between the national interest and what the leaders of these countries are talking about, France and Great Britain, want? And not just France and Great Britain. All of those EU countries that have signed on for

the Biden program of marginalizing Russia and punishing Russia. They are led by people who, in the vernacular of critics, would be called compradors. They are people who are bought into the American empire, who personally profit from it, and who are indifferent to their own nation's interests. Now, that isn't a remarkable thing to say. A similar thing could be said about American foreign policy, which for 30 years by well-regarded polls showed that the majority of Americans were not interested in being

the policeman to the world. Well, does the European public fear and despise Russia the way European leaders do? That's a difficult question. There are certain people who do, of course. The fear is the better word, and fear leads to despising. The key word here is fear. Yes, they do fear Russia, and they might well because they've stirred it up. They have Russians moved into Ukraine, the Europeans suddenly understood that they are defenseless. And they are defenseless without the American NATO participation. Now, I've gone over this question, why were they defenseless? They spent 10 times more money on defense than Russia did before it went into the war.

So why do they have nothing to show up, to put up? Well, I can give you an example from the country I live in, from Belgium. I spoke to, it was at a luncheon that we had, one of these fancy clubs where the speaker was from the defense ministry of Belgium. And we were asking him about the budget and asking him about mobilization. And he said that Belgium cannot mobilize. It has no money in the budget for it. And then he told us where the money is going. Maybe 80% of the Belgian Ministry of Defense budget is going on personnel. That is the salaries and benefits of the serving military and the very large component of retired military. Not on new hardware, simply to pay the existing forces, as small as they are, that Belgium has.

Well, let me ask you about Great Britain. When Prime Minister Starmer two weeks ago offered to send troops to Ukraine, was that essentially a farce? Does he have the troops to send? No, of course he doesn't. As far as I know, the active military force of Britain is something like 50,000 people. I could be wrong, but this way or that. But there's a reason why these were so small. And it's not because these countries were dependent on America for their defense. As Donald Trump has

been saying, they haven't paid their fair share. No, no, they knew what they were doing. The reason why Europe was defenseless was because Europe saw no need for defense. Europe understood that there was no hostile country in their neighborhood. They did not, until they were provoked and pushed by Washington, they did not see Russia as threatening. The United States policy so provoked Russia that it invaded Ukraine. And that was the epiphany moment for Europe when they saw that they were defenseless. But it's not because they had been stupid before. It's not because they had been cheapskates before. They'd spent a vast amount of money that was wasted.

It's because there was no threat until the United States created a threat by forcing its way into Ukraine, by the coup d'etat that triggered a very strong Russian reaction. Do the European leaders by and large, and we can use as our examples President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer, believe that Russia is worthy of trust with respect to any agreement that it enters into? Or are they like Victoria Nuland and Senator Graham, Senator Lindsey Graham, who believe that Russia needs to be rid of Vladimir Putin, can't be trusted, wants to expand to the old Soviet borders, wants to invade Eastern Europe? Well, let's differentiate here. When we speak about Macron, we're speaking about a chameleon.

His only interest is holding power, and he will do whatever is opportunistic at the moment. So he has been, for the last three years, one of the leading voices condemning Russia, trying to mobilize Europe under his direction to defeat Russia. But as the situation changes, as the United States position becomes crystal clear, and as he finally realizes when he gets home and thinks it over, that he didn't persuade Donald Trump of anything, he will not be embarrassed to change his direction. He's been changing his direction every two days for the last five years, so it's not new. Mr.

Starmer, I don't think he's so bright, and I don't think he is such an opportunist. He would find it embarrassing to flip-flop the way Macron does quite naturally. What do you think Prime Minister Starmer hopes to achieve by his trip or his visit to the White House tomorrow? Apparently, he is going to offer to increase the government's military budget from 2% of GDP to 2.3% of GDP. I don't know what that is in actual numbers. And he's going to invite the president to dinner with the king. Well, that's not going to animate Donald Trump, is it?

Well, he wouldn't mind having a dinner with the king. That would animate Donald Trump, but doesn't obligate him to do anything. The numbers, as far as I know, were 12 billion pounds, which must be $15 billion, something like that. This is the increase. To be blunt, what does Starmer hope to get from his trip to the White House tomorrow?

The Americans backstopping the mission of European peacekeepers in Ukraine. They all know that without the United States' logistical support, intelligence support from its satellites, they cannot possibly send troops there who will not be murdered very quickly by the Russian forces. So that is a critical point, and he hopes to bring Donald Trump around to this idea of being the final guarantor. It won't work.

Do Prime Minister Stormer and President Macron, I suppose we could throw in, we haven't discussed him yet, in waiting Mertz understand the Russians will never accept a foreign peacekeeping force in Ukraine any more than America would accept Chinese troops in Mexico? There are a number of reasons for it, and one that is very little discussed is which way are they looking? The assumption that Macron set out, and as Starmer will certainly repeat when he's in the Oval Office, is that the Russians can't be trusted. The Russians have already twice invaded.

First in 2014, when they took Crimea, and then in 2022, when they invaded Ukraine and headed towards Kiev, the capital. They can't be trusted. They're aggressive. They're recidivist. These are dictatorships. Dictatorships are fragile. They only can maintain their people in place by foreign wars. And so, well, that's the story that he'll deliver. I don't think that Donald Trump will be buying any of it. But if you have such a position, if the Russians can't be trusted in our intent on war,

then you'll be looking east. You'll have all the peacekeepers looking east, and they won't be looking up over their heads while the Ukrainians restart their genocidal activities that precipitated the Russian invasion in 2022. That is firing east into Russian settlements. That is what touched off the war. And there you have it. The Russians have seen these. Do you know if the Ukrainians are still firing east using American attackams and British storm shadows,

I think they're called? Yeah, I don't believe they are. What we read about, hear about now are primarily drone attacks. And let's be clear about it. The drone attacks are much more difficult to stop than the Atacoms or storm shadows. These are, first of all, these highly sophisticated missiles are extremely expensive. The Ukraine has few of them. They are husbanded.

They are kept. They are used sparingly. And they are reasonably easy to shoot down. However, with the standard high-accuracy air defenses, of which Russia has perhaps the leading air defense. Now, the drones are a different story. They're harder to detect. And maybe you shoot down a great some of them, but whole swarms of them come in.

You hear about 100 or more drones being sent east by the Ukrainians, being sent west by the Russians, and inevitably some of them get through. And we knew about this last week. We knew about the success of the Ukrainian drone in destroying an oil pipeline pumping station that was essential to maintain flows of petroleum, raw petroleum from Kazakhstan into the pipeline network in Turkey, I believe. It works. You can destroy things with the drones. The drones cost a fraction of the cost and the ukrainians make many of them themselves in in the underground small-scale plants so the this is a factor

in what what has slowed down the russian advance and why all calculations of how they can sprint and go to the yapper in two days are mistaken the drones, a relatively small number of Ukrainian skilled forces can cause serious risk to the lives of an advancing Russian battalion. Therefore, they have to proceed very carefully. And this frustrates those of us, particularly the military experts, who are trying to tell us that the war is close to an end. Well, yes, the military experts that appear on this show, excuse me, all of whom have a lifetime of experience, a professional lifetime of experience in this, all tell us, you know, it's not months, it's weeks. Are you suggesting that the use of drones will extend the life of the Ukrainian

military? It is extending the life. Simply watching, well, these experts are not spending much time looking at Russian television. They would see and hear from the soldiers on the ground who are being given the microphone by the Russian war journalists. That is tough slogging. You have to be very careful of the little birdies. That is both the reconnaissance and the kamikaze birdies. They are deadly.

And the Russians use them to great advantage. We see on the screen this tank, that personnel carrier, whatever, every day being destroyed by one or another Russian. Well, is the Ukrainian military pushing the Russians back, or is the Russian military continuing to move inexorably but slowly westward. The second scenario, you described it very accurately and concisely. The Russians are advancing, but cautiously,

and not like a steamroller all along the front, but in select places where they see that the Ukrainians are weak. What is the reaction of Russian elites to some of the more extreme statements articulated by President Trump? Ukraine started the war. Zelensky is a dictator. Comments of that nature. I would imagine they're ecstatic over what he says, or do they not take him seriously because he sometimes says one thing on one day and the

opposite on the next? Well, they don't want to spoil the air, so they're not directing attention to these inconsistencies in Donald Trump's statements. I'd give them credit in being, that is, Russian television. Let's be honest about it. These talk shows bring on serious experts, and they are given the microphone, and nothing is ever censored or cut from the transmissions on air. But nonetheless, the hosts know what is acceptable and not acceptable to be aired, and the conversations are steered accordingly. There is nothing disparaging said about Donald Trump. What is paid attention to is less his words than his deeds. And I think the Russians were much more interested in what

happened in the voting in the United Nations on Monday than they were in any particular remark that Donald Trump said about Zelensky. Why do you think, Professor Doctorow, President Trump is offering Ukraine continued military assistance in return for access to minerals in the earth. If he really wants to bring about peace, why doesn't he just turn off the Joe Biden military spigot? Well, he's not adding anything to that, to the flow. Well, what is he getting in return? Well, excuse me, what is he offering Ukraine in return for the mineral assets, or are those mineral assets payback for what Trump says is a loan and Biden says was a grant? It's the retrospective payback. It is not.

He's very careful. And when he was speaking with Macron, he did not support the notion that the United States is going to commit anything further to Ukraine. I think it is of great importance to Donald Trump to be able to argue to the American people that he has pulled, that he has taken back the enormous expense that the United States incurred without any strings attached under the Biden administration. He is going to spare himself the embarrassment of an Afghanistan too. He is stuck with a losing hand in Ukraine, but if he can at least have the external signs of recovery of America's investment in this failed war, he will look good. Where are these minerals for which he's negotiating. Some of our military people tell us that the vast majority of them are in the four provinces or oblasts now controlled by Russia in eastern Ukraine. Again, it'd be better if they paid more attention to what the Russians are saying.

The Russians are saying on television that about 30 percent of these minerals are in the eastern provinces or oblasts that Russia holds. So it, and indeed in his offer, in Vladimir Putin's offer to Trump a day ago, to make available to the United States its resources in rare earth and other critical elements for modern and future electronics production. He mentioned both Russia's vast expanse going out to the Far East, where these deposits are located in various places and to jointly exploit those those elements that are in the four provinces oblasts that russia took has taken from ukraine um so he also said that russia's uh holdings and all of these minerals and metals is as he said um an order of magnitude greater than Ukraine's.

And that is believable. Right, right. Very interesting. Dr. Rowe, thank you very much. As always, it's been a fascinating conversation with you. And as always, we are deeply appreciative. And as always, we look forward to seeing you next week. Thanks so much. Thank you. And coming up later today at one o'clock, pardon me, this afternoon, Professor Glenn Deason at two o'clock, Phil Giraldi at three o'clock, my dear friend, Congressman Thomas Massey at four o'clock, midnight in Moscow, Pepe Escobar, and at 4.30, the always worth waiting for, Colonel Douglas McGregor.

Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. We'll see you next time. Resolve to earn your degree in the new year in the Bay with WGU. With courses available online 24-7 and monthly start dates, WGU offers maximum flexibility so you can focus on your future. Learn more at wgu.edu.