Judging Freedom - Prof. Gilbert Doctorow : Is Putin Stable?

Episode Date: October 8, 2025

Prof. Gilbert Doctorow : Is Putin Stable?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Thank you, everyone, for your patience. Professor, Dr. Thank you for your understanding. These gremlins happen from time. to time, you were giving your opinion about whether or not President Putin will voluntarily leave office before the end of his term, and if so, why? Well, I think he will come to the realization that his inability to respond appropriately to the threats that are rising daily from the West and his inability to exercise deterrence

and to keep it in place and make his position untenable. He has been 25 years in service. The SS Putin has grown a lot of barnacles which slow its navigation through troubled waters. And it is

likely the moment has arrived or will soon arrive for him to pass the baton to a younger generation. The younger generation is not going to be in 30s or 40s, but they'll be in their 50s. And they are not hidden. They are visible. There are very capable people to replace him in the management of domestic affairs.

His prime minister, Ms. Houston, the mayor of Moscow, Sabyanyan. They are world-class managers and government people who travel widely, who meet extensively throughout Russia and in the near abroad, the Russia-friendly abroad. In the foreign ministry, Mr. Vavrov has an immediate replacement by somebody much more vigorous and appropriate to the age we live in. And that is Mr. Ryakoff, whose name, of course, will be familiar to you. Let me stop you here. Is there widespread talk about this, or is this view unique to a small number of people?

As you know, from other people who appear on this show who respect you, nobody else is saying this. Well, truth is not a popularity contest. Understood, but I just want to know this is a widely held view. No, I cannot say yes or no, because it's a kind of question that is not publicly discussed. That doesn't mean that the question doesn't exist and that people aren't talking about it over the kitchen table. I don't mean the man in the street, but I mean the political classes. They're not stupid, they're aware of the risks, and I think they are nervous. Let me just say that I'm not drawing this conclusion, which this took a long time to mature,

out of thin air. As your program, one or two other programs that I appear in that have large audiences are now being dubbed into Russian. Each of these programs, like the last one that we had a week ago, had twice as many Russian viewers as the English original. We're speaking now of 150,000 people. Now, when you speak about a poll, a number like 75,000, 100,000, that is an unusually large audience for polling. And I look at two issues that tell me which way the wind is blowing.

One is the comments. I'm speaking now of the Russian version of judging freedom, which you don't produce, but there is a group called In Russian, which produces it very well using artificial intelligence. And I look at two indices. One is the comments, which are almost, let's say, three-quarters negative. thereby they are by i'd say simple people judging by the grammatical mistakes and and the language used thereby simple patriots who reject out of hand without even listening to more than a few minutes of your program they decide that we questioners are idiots can never understand russian

that only russians can understand russian so forth then i look at the other index which is the thumbs up the thumbs up is systematically two times or three times bigger than these comments comments by redneck patriots. That tells me something. People who are watching your program in Russian, they are, I've called them they're politically active, politically interested, and people who bother to give any kind of response, whether a thumbs up down

or a comment, are more active audience. So we're speaking of several percent. It's never 10%, it's less, who actually got the comments. Well, when I see that, these numbers, But the conversation about President Putin's tenure in office while he's experiencing an 80% approval rating is not a general public one. It may be whispered in, as you say, at kitchen tables. Yeah. The 80% I'm sure is accurate, but they're not asking the right question. They're asking, is you doing a good job? Well, if you are looking at your paycheck and you're getting three times now a salary, what you got before the start of the war.

If you're employed now in a small town that was once an industrial town and became laid waste in 1990s and has revived since the start of the war because of industrial production being subcontracted to local factories, then you're pretty happy. When you have money in the bank

and you're getting 20% interest annually, you don't mind the 8% inflation. So for this reason, if you ask, average guy in the street about his combat to approve of Putin. He'll say yes. Now if you ask the politically active class, that's a different story. They're interested in Russia's prestige and they're interested in the risk factor of is this tenable. And they are the ones who are given two to one approval of a conversation that you and I have in which I'm questioning Mr. Putin's speech at the Valdi conference. What was wrong with a speech was he, he, he,

He put Russia's fate in the hands of Mr. Trump, which is a very foolish thing to do. Let me read what you wrote about this. This is a rather profound statement. Forgive me for looking down. I want to read it precisely. This is what you sent me the other day. If Mr. Putin continues to put Russia's fate in the hands of Donald Trump by accepting each further escalation from the West, including those enabled by the American president himself, such as secondary sanction,

and delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine, then Russia is doomed. What do you mean by that? I mean that the very risky probing, poking at Russia is accelerating, and I see the future taking shape. On this program and others, the panelists generally looking at the next few weeks, I was one of those. I put my, I got trying to stand out as having been so much more penetrating in my view of things than my peers, I was saying through with, well, as looking at the progress on the ground, looking at the heavy losses of Ukrainians on the front, the war will probably come to a culmination in the few. weeks to months. However, in the last several weeks, the picture has changed a bit.

First of all, that knowledge that the war is going badly through Ukraine has penetrated the skulls of the NATO leadership and of the biggest influencers of EU policies, the leaders of France and Germany. And the result is that they are putting together something that is now clear, clear to anyone who wants to read the handwriting on the wall.

And so let me give the eyeglasses to read that handwriting. That Europe is now ready to essentially confiscate the 145 billion euros in Russian state assets in Euroclear in Belgium for the sake of so-called collateral for a loan to Ukraine that will never be repaid. This is a very refined way of getting around the question of confiscation of state assets. But it comes to the same thing.

And if Russia were to, say, open what Mr. Putin is unable to, or unwilling to say, that this is confiscation of assets and it is an act of war. There are a number of things that are going on, which in normal international relations are considered a causes belly. The so-called piracy of the French had on this, what they assumed to have been a Russian

shadow fleet tanker. That is normal international relations, the cause of declaring war. Right, right. Will the theft of 165 billion in Russian state assets in European banks, this is the $64,000 question, be deemed by the Kremlin an act of war? Will the ramping up of German arms manufacturers who are making weapons that will be aimed at Moscow be considered an act of war? And should they be stopped before they complete their tasks? This is the very reason why I'm saying that Mr. Putin should reconsider his staying in office because he has aligned himself going back to 2016 when Mr. Obama confiscated Russian embassy properties in the United States, in strict violation of all international relations.

He put up with that, and Mr. Putin has put up with a great many acts of aggression against Russia, which normally could and should be declared Casa's belly. Even last week at Sochi, he was asked about the Tomobox. And he said on camera in front of the audience, he said, yes, this will seriously damage our relations with the United States. Yes. It's a very interesting thing to say. When a year ago, he said, we will respond with armed force against the United States because we were talking about wrong-ranged missiles in case they are used by Ukraine, supposedly used by them, but actually used by Americans operating those missiles against us. Now, after he walked off the stage at Sochi, he had a little exchange with a journalist who was a hound dog.

He was with him all the time, a certain part of Zerubin, who asked him that same question. And first, he was relaxed. He just came off the stage. He was very happy. And his answer to his own Rubin was that if the United States uses those missiles, it will destroy our relationship. Then a second later, he backed up. He said, oh, no, no, it will damage. I'm sorry, which is it, Mr. Putin?

Damage or destroy, they're very different. And if on such an issue vital to Russia's defense, Mr. Putin waffles that I think he should consider that he should leave in grace. Yesterday, October 7th, was Vladimir Putin's birthday. Here's what the Moscow Times wrote. Now, I'm reading in English translation, obviously. Under constitutional changes, he pushed through in 2020,

Putin could remain in power until 2036 when he will be 83 years old. With no sign, he wants to step down. That would make him the longest ruling leader in Russian history, surpassing Joseph Stalin. all right so obviously there is talk out there if the moscow times is alluding to it look let's look at the picture i just said that there's a a constellation that's formed in the last several weeks i mentioned part the first part of it but i didn't say where it leads at 145 billion euros that the The EU wants to take over to provide Ukraine assistance.

It's theft. It's outright theft, and I would think that Putin will declare it as that. The question is, will he declare it as an act of war? But go ahead. The issue is, what will that money do? It's enough to keep Ukraine going for three years or four years. They're not going to just hand it to Mr. Zelensky in one go. So they know very well, they want to feed it to him to be sure that the war keeps going.

when and why. We've heard that not the figure 2029 is the time when Mr. Merz says that Russia will attack. Well, it's not Russia that's going to attack. It's Mr. Merch that wants to attack Russia. And the war mongers, and Merz is a lead warmonger, but not the only one, that want to have a war with Russia conventional war four years from now. Now, if they give Mr. Zelensky this money to keep his troop fighting until then. Well, you see it. It's a bridging loan for Europe to keep Russia distracted with this war of attrition in Ukraine while they gear up to attack Russia. Now, some of my peers have spoken of Europe very dismissively. Russian experts who are on Russian state television

are not so dismissive. When Mr. Merritt puts up one trillion euros to to raise military production in Germany. And when you consider that Germany is not de-industrialized yet, and has a very strong capability of using all of its automotive industry, idle factory employees and machinery, and other heavy industry that still has not gone to rust to create arms. Well, the Russians who are thinking Russians

nobody get a microphone also expressed concern, and I think they were right. No, I don't believe that it will come up to that point. I think Mr. Putin will either become a changed man and ready to openly set, follow his lines, red lines, and defend them or he'll be out. What is the true goal of the EU warmongers? Do they really want a war with the war? Russian military, is this a scheme to enrich their arms manufacturers? Is there some long-term NATO-Donald Trump-related goal? What are they, what a Starmer Macron? And Macron, of course,

has some very serious problems, and Mertz really want. Over the last 20 years, progressively the EU has turned from an economic project into a geopolitical. project under this has been accelerated under fondoleon who has virtually merged nato with the u institutions the consequently the leaders of the european collectively want to assert a geopolitical role for europe which can be done by humbling russia they have i have peers who speak about the military industrial complex in Europe as if that is driving things. I don't agree at all. The military industrial complex is now being raised from the dead by the political leaders who are doing this for their own purposes. Mr. Netanyahu is not the only person on earth who

engages in military action for the sake of keeping himself in power. If you look at European leaders today, that's exactly the game they are playing. Now, Fondolian took it to extremes by saying, oh, we have these great challenges, we have to keep ourselves together, means locked, locked arms, under her stewardship. That's being challenged by Mr. Mertz, but the general idea of Europe as a geopolitical force is very much the order of the day among the top leaders in Europe who want to keep their positions. Well, what do you think will happen with respect to the re-militarization by three very unpopular leaders, Mertz, Starrmer, and McCrone? Stated differently, we only have about two minutes left before I have another commitment.

My apologies because of the problem with the Internet, which we've overcome, thanks to Chris. will this re-militarization re-popularize these leaders domestically? It depends how they play their hand. If they can continue to play this war hysteria, which is going wild to Europe, with the Russian drones and everybody's backyard, then they can instill a fear in the broad population

and proceed with their militarization success. I don't know if they have the wisdom or the advisors at their side to help them do it. And there are serious problems within you, as we saw with the victory, Mr. Bavish, in Slovakia, creating a triad of Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic. I'm sorry, I meant this Czech Republic. Those three, who are your skeptics and who are a stumbling block for the warmongers led by for Andorlaying. So how this will play out, I hope nobody can say with absolute certainty.

But the risks are very great, far greater than we had considered just weeks ago. That is what caused me to change my opinion on a go slow, reasonable, only adults in the room, a description of Mr. Putin. Got it. I know you're taking a lot of hits from a lot of people that I respect. I want you to know that I respect your intellectual. intellectual honesty. And of course, this is all very good for our viewers to hear a variety of views on a variety of topics. And I look forward to seeing you next week. Thank you, Professor.

Very good. Bye-bye. All the best. Coming up later today on this and all the other topics we've been discussing a week at 11 o'clock, Colonel Douglas McGregor at 1 o'clock, Aaron Mote, at 2 o'clock. Professor Glenn Dyson at 3 o'clock, Phil Giraldi, Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thank you.