Judging Freedom - Prof. Gilbert Doctorow : Russia Spreads Its Wings; Thumbs Its Nose.

Episode Date: September 3, 2025

Prof. Gilbert Doctorow : Russia Spreads Its Wings; Thumbs Its Nose.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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That's an equivalent to $15 a month. Limited time new customer offer for first three months only. Speeds may slow above 35 gigabytes on unlimited. plan. Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details. Hi, everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Wednesday, September 3rd, 2025. Professor Gilbert Doctoro will be with us here in just a moment. Russia spreads its wings commercially and thumbs its nose diplomatically. But first this.

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Replay access and exclusive VIP panels, use promo code judge for 20% off your upgrade. That's expatmoneysummit.com promo code judge. Professor, Dr. Welcome here, my dear friend. Before we get to the significance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting and the effect on bricks of the meeting this week, a couple of questions, if I might, about Ukraine. What are the attitudes, as you perceive them, among Russian elites about the likely end of the special military operation? I think they perceive that it will be resolved on the battlefield. The expectations that any of the friends of Russia

like India or China, or for that matter, President Trump will bring Ukraine to the table and make them amenable to a realistic settlement. I think those expectations are minimal. There is, if you follow the Russian state television news daily, there is a clear perception that the advances are significant, as advances on the ground, the taking of territory, is now at the level of 700 square kilometers a month, whereas it had been 400 a month at the start of it at the start of this year. So there is also the awareness that the front has in some respects weakened to collapsed

around the logistical hub of Pakrovsk, which is of great importance to all logistical services to the Ukrainian frontline soldiers. In that respect, I think that the Russian elites have a vision of the race to the Dianpa River, which would be the culmination. There's also talk, of course, of taking Adessa, which would be a still more dramatic denouement,

conclusion to this military conflict. That is the mood among elites. Do you foresee any circumstances under which have Vladimir Putin and Volodomira Zelensky sit down at a table together? It is possible. It's very difficult to imagine, but it is possible. However, the Russians have made it fairly clear that Mr. Zelensky's signature on any documents will not be welcome. They could meet. They can discuss what a settlement can and should be, but they would want to have a legitimate signature on any documents concluding peace.

They don't consider his to be legitimate. Interesting. What do Ukrainian elites think? They're, if you know, they're generals, they're diplomats, their senior government officials, not including President Zelensky, about the likely coming Russian military achievement of the Russian objective.

on the battlefield? Well, for obvious reasons, they do not speak openly their minds. If they did, they would be in deep trouble, if not imprisonment altogether. So it's very difficult to answer your question. The Ukrainian media are tightly controlled, as we know. The no criticism of the government's policies are acceptable. And the opposition leaders of the patch, like Timoshenko, Poroshenko, are really on board with Zelensky in his objectives.

They just think they could do it better. So there is not a big split in Ukrainian elites at this moment sufficient to encourage us to think that the Ukrainian side will back down until the military defeat becomes impossible to conceal. What about the supernationalists, the bandarists, the people that some refer to as neo-Nazis? Do they accept the coming reality, or are they so driven by ideology that they'll fight to the end? There was an article, I think last week, on Zero Hedge by one commentator who, pointed out that the Russians are ensnaring the elite forces of the Ukrainian army

by not pushing to full advantage their daily progress on the line of confrontation and allowing or inviting Ukrainians to make a counter strike, which they then snuff out, taking so many hundreds or thousands of soldiers with them. Therefore, you cannot see the diminishing strength of those nationalists. Russia's ideal is to exterminate them. And best of all, exterminate them on the field of battle, so you don't get into all the nonsense of judicial trials. You were kind enough to share that article with me, and I found it fascinating.

And the author's thesis is that, as I understand it, I recall it, President Putin could move for a swift victory, but that's not what he wants. He wants a slow methodical victory so as to eliminate as much as possible of the Ukrainian fighting force, particularly these people were calling the bandarists, so he doesn't have to deal with them when the war is over. That is a very good summation. small point here is that Putin wants the Ukrainian people to say uncle. He wants the Ukrainian people to admit that the whole of Bandera program that they have, as was imposed by the new government following in the February 2014 Kutat, that all the principles behind it of extreme nationalism are totally discredited. For that reason, he is allowing or even encouraging the enormous extermination of capable males in Ukraine, those who were inducted into the military.

It would be possible, theoretically, for that to be avoided, but that would not drive home to the Ukrainian nation that they have lost, and that the principle, behind their fight are false. Do you have any feel for ties between MI6, CIA, and the Bandarists? That's outside my field of conflict. I know it's outside your field, but I know you also have a lot of contact, so I respect the intellectual honesty of your answer, and I thought I would throw it out. Before we get to India and the Shanghai Organization,

and bricks. Is there any reaction in Moscow when President Trump does things like blow out of the water of Venezuelan ship killing everybody on it without any due process whatsoever? This is arguably homicide. This is a pre-conviction, extrajudicial execution. Does Moscow react at all internally when Trump does things like this? Sort of like when he killed General Soleimani in his first term. Well, Soleimani, they react to because they are close friends of Iran, and he was a very prominent person. As regards these latest incidents, the Russians are quiet about it. You won't find it in the news. They don't comment on it. their official position remains very favorable

to Trump in the belief that he can do business with him and that he is the first American president in a generation who listens to them. So they leave it at that. All right. Chris, put up the full screen from President Trump

on his truth social police. What the president wrote this morning. The big question to be answered is whether or not President Xi of China will mention the massive amount of support and blood that the United States of America gave to China in order to help it secure its freedom from a very unfriendly foreign invader. He's talking about Japan and World War II. Many Americans died in China's quest for victory and glory. I hope that they are rightfully honored and remembered for their bravery and sacrifice. May President Xi and the wonderful people of China

have a great and lasting day of celebration. Now this sarcasm that I want to ask you about professor, back to quoting the president. Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un as you conspire as you, not as they, as you conspire against the United States of America. How does the Kremlin view that type of diplomacy by sarcasm? I don't think they'll react at all for the reasons I just mentioned. They don't pay much attention to what Donald Trump says, says in public. I think, I've called this out in the past. I don't follow closely what he says.

I don't parse his words because of their, they're largely double talk and double talk to keep off balance all of his many opponents, domestically and far. But I think this message is very important for a different reason. It is very sad, deeply sad, that Trump did not. make arrangements to be present at the parade today. It is deeply sad. And to make these words about hoping that people, that American soldiers who died and will be honored,

I'm sorry, that's pitiful. For the same token, let's luckily be broader about this. I have publicly criticized in Indian television interviews, Modi's decision not to be present because one and a half million Indians died fighting in World War II on the European and the Pacific fronts. And it was a failure to honor those deaths of his compatriots, although that India was not yet a nation that is a state in 1945.

But it was disgraceful that he did not honor their memory by attending. So it was with Trump. It's just disgraceful that he wasn't there. And I think it would have played out differently. What we saw on the television screens today would have looked different if Trump had been at the party. What has been the effect, the economic effect of the short-term economic effect, we can speculate the long term, but the short-term economic effect of Trump's tariffs on India?

Well, the most distinct, for me the distinguishing, uh, uh, consequence was what looks like the pullout of India from the quadrilateral arrangements for a containment of China policy and or a proto-NATO in Indo-Pacific of which they were members after 25 years of cultivating this relationship by Washington. I think that was that was the end result that Trump sought and he got it. Now, um, as As to the other consequences, of course, the late deal has been made, a great deal of knowledge has been made about these tariffs, so they apply to manufactured and primarily to textiles, which is an important employer in India.

So the political impact in India is greater than the dollar value of trade that is being lost as a result of these tariffs, considering that these are low-paid textile workers who will be out of a job. But the major component of US Indian trade, which is IT, software programming, business intelligence, done under contract, or even with subsidiaries of American corporations in India, this remains intact, $80 billion worth out of $100 billion

in trade, as far as I understand it, of exports to the United States. And then pharmaceuticals, also are untouched. But the way that this was brought in and the insulting remarks by Trump in his telephone conversation with Modi made it inevitable that India would react and would dig in the heels and would demonstrate its independence and sovereignty from the United States. This is what happened. What has been the effect on the Shanghai question?

operation organization and on bricks, the combined effect of the sanctions on Russia, the sanctions on China, the sanctions on India. Could one argue that the effect has been the opposite of what Trump wanted? A more unified, strengthened, commercially adaptable and integrated Shanghai organization and bricks? Well, that assumes we know what Donald Trump wanted. And I'm saying, saying that is an arguable case that he wanted the opposite of what he said he wanted. Nonetheless, let's come back to the question that you've posed, which is very serious. I'm very glad that you have brought the two subjects up together. Because in the broad public, there is confusion of what is Bricks and what is the Shanghai

cooperation organization. How are they different? Well, they are different, at least in the most simplified way, we could say that Bricks was from the beginning an economic and commercial trade organization to bring together these countries of the global south and Russia so for the sake of greater prosperity, trade will not going through the dollar and things like that. It was not primarily a geopolitical organization or certainly not a defense organization. Looking at the Shanghai cooperation organization or SEO, we're looking at something that was

founded at the start of the new millennium when terrorism particularly the Islamic state Islamic fundamentalism was rife was a very big issue globally and it was founded by China and by Russia first of all to secure the territory between them for which they could be competitors and the United States of course is one of those hoping that they would be fierce competitors and would be at one of its throats of the Shanghai cooperation organization was precisely created to avoid that to moderate their their joint governance of the big territory in populous territory between them it also as a security organization it's announced its goals to be anti to combat terrorism

and combat narco trading and what we've seen are baby steps from that initial primarily security and regional look, Central Asia, primarily, to a more broader Eurasian framework, extending all the way out to Belarus in the west and to United Arab Emirates in the southwest. So geographically, it has expanded, although it's still Asia. And then the remit, the mission statement, has been by baby steps, going in the direction of economics, trade, and banking. And there was a big step, not a baby step, but a big step this past weekend when she announced the plans to create a SEO development bank. So what we see is the elements of Bricks are now being fully developed within a limited geographic area.

BRICS is global. The SEO is regional, but of course the region takes in 40% of the world's population. Nonetheless, it is regional. It is from India, China, and Russia are the big players. What happened this weekend was, yes, the remit has changed, the emission statement is broadened, and the role of India, I think, has been offered the possibility to be one of the three governing countries of SEO. Oh, that is profound. India was on the sidelines. India is on

the governing board of bricks, but it was not on the governing board of SEO. And now the SEO was becoming kind of regional bricks. It is both logical and important. I also would like to introduce a remark that was made by Gladdecent and when we had a recent conversation. And I think

it's very appropriate to understand what's going on. That But as when Russia and China were involved in a security mission in SEO, Russia and China are pretty balanced. Oh, yes, okay. China has a bigger army in manpower members, but Russia has a much more effective and battle practiced army. So they are pretty balanced in military and security issues. When it becomes very economic, banking, finance, well, the economy, of China is many times the size of the Russian economy. And Russia would be a junior partner.

By bringing in India as an equal partner, Russia improves its feeling of comfort in SEO. This was Deeson's observation, and I think it is a very good insight. Very astute observation, and I'm grateful that you raised it. What is the significance of this Siberia II pipeline, which I guess will be the longest pipeline in the world by far

to deliver, is it oil or natural gas, enlighten me, from the top of Russia into the bowels of China? It has several dimensions to it. Yes, it's primarily to double the amount of natural gas that Russia is delivering to China on pipeline. The Siberia, Power of Siberia 1, which is been operating for several years and is close to 50 million, 50 billion cubic meters of gas a year. It itself will be raised as part of separate agreements that were reached this past weekend by another 12 billion cubic meters.

And Siberia, Power of Siberia 2, which has been in talking, in discussions, year after year. I know two years in a row at the Vladivostok Eastern Economic Forum, which is supposed to be the big platform for Russia to announce its investment projects in the Far East. Each year there was discussion with the Chinese come and sign it off and they didn't. This year, ahead of the forum, the forum starts on Friday. Ahead of the forum, the Russians came out and said, It has been done. And this was announced yesterday by the Financial Times, although they had to kick the tires and say that the financial details aren't yet in place.

But they admitted this is a legally binding commitment to construct that pipeline, which has an additional feature that it passes through Mongolia. It goes more directly to the interior of China, and from the interior it passes all the way down to Shanghai. But its features are several, and they are not widely announced. So I'll add a couple of additional factors that Russian television talks about. That is one, spurs of this pipeline will be feeding natural gas into parts of the Russian Far East that have not been served by any pipelines and which are energy short. And for example, in the Far Eastern Siberia, they will be building a major production center for fertilizer. based on this gas.

So Russia will be serving itself. And the transiting of Mongolia is a very good issue. For Mongolia, it will be an important source of additional income, and it locks the three together. The United States has been doing its best to prize Mongolia away from Russia and China. Well, it's failed, guys. This pipeline across Mongolia means Mongolia is a fraternal country, with Russia and China and not with the United States.

And there's not much the United States can do about this unless they're going to engage in sabotage like on Nord Stream 2. How long will it take before we run? How long will it take to build this? The early 30s. So I think about five, seven years, something like that. And it will be receiving gas from those gas fuels

which had been supplying Western Europe and are now underutilized. because Western Europe is boycotting pipeline gets. There's a minute, pipeline gets. The fact is that Europe is buying a lot of liquefied natural gas promotion. Another topic for our next talk, the absurd decisions of Western Europe. Professor Redoctora, thank you very much.

Thanks for your time, as always. Thank you for the illuminating little lecture on Bricks and SCO. very helpful and very timely. All the best. We'll see you again next week. Thanks. Bye-bye. Thank you.

Coming up later today at 11 this morning, Aaron Mate at 1 this afternoon. Max Blumenthal at 2 this afternoon. Colonel Karen Quatkowski at 3 this afternoon, Phil Giraldi. Judge the Paletano for judging freedom. Thank you.