Judging Freedom - Prof. Gilbert Doctorow: Trump/Putin: Who Has the Upper Hand?

Episode Date: May 21, 2025

Prof. Gilbert Doctorow: Trump/Putin: Who Has the Upper Hand?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

you Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Wednesday, May 21st, 2025. Professor Gilbert Doctorow joins us now. Professor Doctorow, thank you very much for your time, of course. Do you see in the reports of the negotiations, whether it's Donald Trump on the phone or whether it's Steve Witkoff in Vladimir Putin's office, that the Americans understand the Russian mentality on things like land areas that have

been Russian for 300 years, the attitude about a ceasefire while war is going on. Do the Americans grasp that? Well, the Americans are a different group. If you take Rubio and General Kellogg, of course, they may be more obtuse, and I'm not sure if they're interested in understanding. But with respect to Donald Trump and to Steve Witkoff and others in the circle, I have little doubt that they understand what's going on very well. And the peculiarities that we've spoken about in past chats, or that I've written about separately, are the peculiarities in the behavior of Donald Trump may be largely explained by

his attempts to ward off and to keep disoriented and away from his back. The strong opposition that he faces, of course, within all of the Democrats, within a portion of the Republicans on Capitol Hill, and with all of the main leaders in the European Union. What the Russians are talking about is a threat to Trump, precisely the combination of his domestic opposition in the Democratic Party and the leaders of this coalition of the willing in Western Europe. Well, the coalition of the willing in Western Europe seems to be aligned with the neocons in

the United States. And I wonder if the Russians understand that Trump is hearing different things in each ear. In one ear, he hears the neocons. He hears Rubio and Sebastian Gorka and that crowd saying, keep up the war, keep using Ukraine as a battering ram. Ukraine can win, Putin can't last forever. And in the other ear he hears, I'm going to guess it's Witkoff and the vice president. I don't know. The vice president says some things in public that are not always the same as what he's having been reported as saying in private.

But it's the more, let's end this now, it was a waste of money, the Russians are going to win, let's save lives. So he's hearing opposite things in his ears and he says opposite things when he talks. Remember how he said he would end the war in 24 hours? What did he learn from his conversation or what do we know or believe he learned from his conversation with Vladimir Putin on Monday of this week? Well, I wouldn't worry so much about Trump being confused. Spreading confusion is his game. And as I say, that's his best policy against his enemies forming a united front and attacking

him in a dangerous way. The fact that he has two different sets of views in his immediate advisors or assistants is obviously intentional. It's not accidental. He knew whom he was selecting and he selected people like Rubio for very clear, understandable political reasons to maintain his position in the Senate

where anything foreign policy would be heard. He is keeping his enemies off balance by letting them believe what you just said a moment ago, that he follows the recommendations of the last person to have his ear. I don't believe that there's anything more to it than precisely that. Do the Russians understand this? Does the Kremlin know of the neocon forces in his immediate circle,

as well as the, I'll call them America firsters, I don't know what that means, but let's just use it as a handle, because the president uses that phrase every once in a while. And the America firsters in his orbit. Does the Kremlin get that? Oh, they get it very well. And they are satisfied. Putin himself is satisfied that Trump understands the situation and is sympathetic to their security needs. And they give him a long leash, so to speak,

to do what he has to do to maintain himself. They believe that he has to cheat something, which we don't talk about so much, but pays to bring forth in our discussion now. The latest Russian analysis, you know, the talk shows of how this talk, how this discussion with between Putin and Trump went, highlights the fact that Trump has kept the Europeans out of this game, that they were all waiting to speak to him.

And they were greatly disappointed that after he spoke to Vladimir Putin, he spoke to them all as a group, including in that group Zelensky. None of them had a chance to get his ear separately. And moreover, they seem to have acquiesced in the way the negotiations are going and which Trump addressed in his remarks following the talk with Putin by telephone, namely that the sides, the Ukrainians and the Russians are in deliberations directly without any intermediaries. Now let's remember, go back three years, every time the question of peace talks came up at the initiative of course of Zelensky and his European friends, it was always in the context of getting 30, 40 countries all together to talk about condemning Russia. Russia was not invited to these first talks, and even if it were invited, it would have

faced a united combination of all of the sympathetic countries to Ukraine and hostile countries to itself. Now the meetings are going one-on-one and for Russia that is a very important achievement which Donald Trump facilitated. I don't want to get too much into the weeds but prior to the conversation, the telephone conversation between President Putin and President president trump trump and his people. And everybody and not everybody in the west but the leaders were saying ceasefire first ceasefire first negotiations afterwards. at all, going back to the invasion by Napoleon, they're not going to talk about, they're not going to stop the fighting, whether it's offensive or defensive, just to negotiate. However, after the conversation between Trump and Putin, President Trump has stopped asking for a ceasefire question. Can we conclude from this that Vladimir Putin was very clear, ceasefire

as a prelude to negotiations is off the table? I think that's a correct assumption. And I think that is sunk into the thick brains of the Europeans as well, because they have become much quieter about what's going to happen at the next meetings, what the timetable will be and so forth. Although Ursula von der Leyen has got her 17th or whatever number package of sanctions ready to roll out, this is all on the sidelines. In the front page, what we see is the Europeans have fallen back.

There's wide anticipation that Trump is going to remove himself, remove the United States from this war. That's the current expectation, and I believe it will be fulfilled. The Europeans are trying to deal with that fact without having to go into a direct attack on Donald Trump. And Trump has managed to detoxify this decision. I have to take my hat off to him because I was quite critical of his not dealing with this properly, of his spreading confusion. Now I see that his tactic has achieved a certain result. The Europeans are backing

off them. They are gracelessly accepting the fact that the Europe and the United States is going to withdraw. He's not doing it in a fit of anger, in a fit of confrontation with Mr. Zelensky. He's doing it simply saying, look, these sides have many issues on the table that you and we don't understand, and therefore, best if we leave them alone to do it themselves. That is an enormous achievement. And we didn't see it coming. Do the people in the Kremlin view the United States as a neutral, sincere mediator between Russia and Ukraine, or as a co-belligerent with Ukraine against Russia? I think it's a second.

Having said that though, they understand that Trump is trying to extricate the United States from this situation and they are very happy about that. Generally speaking, the review that I heard last night on these talk shows, is flattering towards Trump. They are satisfied with it. At the same time, they are saying clearly, loudly and clearly, that Trump is not a friend of Russia. That Trump is looking after American national interests, period.

So there's no romanticizing this relationship. And yet they are pleased with what Trump has achieved by getting the Europeans out of the act. Here's President Zelensky on Monday after reports of the Trump-Putin conversation came out and presumably after President Trump addressed EU leaders along with President Zelensky. I'm going to ask you if this is domestic political claptrap or if he really believes it. Chris Cutt, number three. Nobody will withdraw our forces from our territories.

It is my constitutional duty, the duty of our military, to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. Yes, there are temporarily occupied territories now because of the aggression of such a huge country. It is understood. But we will accept no ultimatums. We will not give away our land, our territories, and our people, our homes. Now, all right, you don't need my opinion,

but I need yours. I think these are brave words. They will be undone the moment that Donald Trump acts on what he was hinting at the last couple of days and says that this is not his war, this is not America's war, it's Europe's problem, and he hands it over to Europe to solve. Assuming that he does what is logical and connect to such a position, and he stops US supply of finance and military material. And he refuses Europe to the right to buy US equipment for delivery to Kiev.

If he does that, then Mr. Zelensky will have to eat his words. And he will do that unless he gets on a plane and leaves the country, which would be, frankly, a better option for him. I don't see how he can avoid getting on the plane and leaving the country unless he wants to be a martyr. I mean, if he concedes one inch of territory, notwithstanding how realistic it would be for him to do so, how could he possibly expect to stay in office or even alive back in Keefe? Well, yes, if he leaves the country, then he can claim that he has done the honorable thing.

He's refused to sacrifice his country's national interests, and he leaves that unpleasant task, that dishonorable task, to anyone who takes power after him. He would then leave in his own eyes as a hero, and possibly as a hero in the eyes of many of his followers today in Ukraine, such as they are. So I see that as a very real possibility. As for the Russians, they definitely want to have a negotiated settlement. Mr. Putin is not saying that just to please the ears of Donald Trump. Very interesting.

In the meantime, is there going to be a Trump-Putin, well, before I get to that, what will the EU leaders do if Trump turns off the spigot? What will von der Leyen, Mertz, Macron, Stammer, Tusk of Poland, what will they do? Will they try to replace American military equipment with their own? Oh, they will try. That will give them a few months of breathing space during which they can write a new script for themselves and explain, some of them, not all of them, why they are expelling their countries from the coalition of the willing and facing the facts that Russia has won the war. I think in a few months that they pretend to provide aid to Ukraine, they will succeed in developing a common narrative that frees them from their guilt of the last three years, or at least tries to. But they will have to come around to the facts that

But they will have to come around to the facts that Ukraine is going to go belly up. Are you surprised that there seems to be a sentiment amongst European leaders that Prime Minister Netanyahu and the IDF have gone too far in Gaza, too many innocents killed, too many children starving, too many babies about to die of malnutrition. It's time to dial it back. This seems to be an attitude relatively new amongst European leaders. I point out the British Foreign Minister on the floor of the House of Commons and President Macron.

I haven't actually heard anything from von der Leyen or Mertz or Stammer on this. Just as we spoke a moment ago about the EU taking its time to reposition itself and actually to reverse itself on the Ukraine war, what you have just said indicates the first baby steps Ukraine war, what you have just said indicates the first baby steps in the direction of sanctions and pariah status being given to Israel if it pursues its present genocide in Gaza. They're not doing a flip-flop from one day to the next. These very important remarks by Stammer, which were flashed over BPC every 20 minutes. What is he threatening to do? Not to continue to extend the free trade arrangements that they now have, not to sanction Israel.

That will be the next baby step. Other European countries are speaking of sanctions. So as a collectivity, the European states will head towards severe penalties for Israel, but not all at once. They're feeling the ground under their feet. Here's Prime Minister Netanyahu's latest, this is two days ago, stating publicly that the IDF intends to take full control of Gaza, which means controlling food, water and medicine for the Gazan babies. Cut number 14. Eventually, we will have an area fully controlled by the IDF, where Gaza's civilian population

can receive aid while Hamas gets nothing. This is part of the effort to defeat Hamas alongside the intense military pressure and our massive incursion, which is essentially aimed at taking control of all of Gaza and stripping Hamas of any ability to loot humanitarian aid. This is the war plan and the victory plan. I don't know if Donald Trump wants the IDF to take full control of Gaza. I mean, the cynics would say he wants his son-in-law to develop it. The realists would say, where are 2 million people

going to go? Well, I think Donald Trump can only handle not because of his own limitations, but simply the realities of office. I don't think he can handle two major crises simultaneously with equal efficiency and equal logic. The logic is that he would dump Israel. The question is when will be opportune for him to do that.

If the Europeans all come in and go from the baby steps I've mentioned a minute ago to some real sanctions against Israel, then the United States can begin to make a move. What Netanyahu is talking about essentially is going back to where the situation was before Sharon pulled Israel out of Gaza. But doing it in a most violent, repugnant way that flags Israel as a demonic entity to the whole world. Talking about demonic entity, here is a former member of the Knesset articulating about the harshest view imaginable on the relationship between the Netanyahu regime and the babies the children of Gaza, this is stomach-churning it's in

Hebrew but there's a translation Chris cut number 10 every child in Gaza is the enemy We are at war with the Gazan entity, the Gazan Terror Entity, which we ourselves established in Gaza, in Oslo, and in the disengagement. The disengagement that Prime Minister Netanyahu voted in favor of, that is the enemy now. Every such child to whom you are now giving milk in another 15 years will rape your daughters and slaughter your children. We need to conquer Gaza and settle it. And not a single Ghazan child should remain there. Let's stop telling ourselves this deception just to score points in this game between pro-Bibi and anti-Bibi. This isn't about left or right. It's about winning this war and it's about justice. When will

we learn? When will we learn? When will we learn? In other words, slaughter the babies. I mean, this attitude should be unacceptable everywhere on the planet. No, justice will be served from that gentleman who is facing court charges in the ICC. Of course, the behavior of Netanyahu and his government is monstrous. It's taken a lot of time, much too long, for European countries to back away from their unqualified support of Israel with a backward view of the Holocaust and Europe's complicity in the destruction of European jewelry. But we're reaching that point, that tilting point, when Europe is facing directly what you have just shown on the screen, the awful nature of Netanyahu government and its calling

for a tribunal to try its leaders for genocide. We're coming slowly to that point. As if Trump doesn't have enough headaches, what is your take on India-Pakistan? The United States shares with Russia a basic alignment with India, whereas China is the basic backer of Pakistan. So here is where both Trump and Putin are really in the same camp. Regrettably, both American and Russian armaments to India have not been as efficient as cutting edge as what China has supplied to Pakistan. So there was a very big embarrassment on the Indian side

for its failure to show its muscle when it was challenged directly to dogfights with the Pakistani Air Force. So the United States surely is embarrassed by this. Russia doesn't talk much about it, but it isn't exactly their best hour either. That the Chinese force have assisted Pakistan better than United States and Russia have assisted India.

Before we go, you have a book coming out pretty soon, don't you? Yes, in the next week, this first volume that's entitled War Diaries will be appearing on Amazon and will be available, of course, from all booksellers. It is, just to be clear about it, my diaries are diaries in a very specific personal sense. They are these essays that I have been publishing in great volumes over

the last three years relating to the war. Essentially, I see the value of this book will be to those who want to follow the evolution of Russian society onto the pressures of the war. I am not pretending to be a front line follower or a military expert on what has been going on in the field. But how this war has changed Russian society, where it started before the special military operation was launched, and where it is today, it's a dramatically different society with different makeup, composition of leadership

and elites to come. And that is what the virtue of this book is, particularly the essays for my periodic visits to Russia, at a time when all Western journalists had left the country, and there was no serious reporting going on. Well, the cover's very enticing, and you're a gifted writer and observer of the scene. I wish you well on the book.

We'll talk more about it once it's available. There it is, War Diaries, very optimistic, Volume One, The Russia-Ukraine War 22 to 23. Professor Redaktorow, thank you very much for your time, my dear friend, but look forward to seeing you. We have a short week next week, because Monday's a holiday here in the US, but we'll see you next week.

Okay, look forward to it. Thank you, all the best. And coming up later today, some schedule changes at one o'clock, Pepe Escobar at two o'clock, Matt Ho at three o'clock, Phil Giraldi at four o'clock, Scott Ritter. Aaron Maté moved to tomorrow. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. for judging freedom.