Judging Freedom - Prof. John Mearsheimer : Trump’s Disaster

Episode Date: July 28, 2026

Prof. John Mearsheimer : Trump’s DisasterSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Undeclared wars are commonplace. Pragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes to love your country you had to alter or abolish the government? the government? What if Jefferson was right? What if that government is best, which governs least? What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now?

Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for judging freedom. Today is Tuesday, July 28, 2006, my dear friend, Professor John Mearsheimer joins us now. Professor Mirosheimer, no matter what we discuss, it's always a pleasure, and I deeply appreciate your time. Can you describe the scope of the disaster caused by this war in Iran that Trump and Netanyahu began? Yes, it's clearly a disaster of the First of all, you want to understand that the president had four objectives. One was regime change. Two was to put an end to the nuclear enrichment program inside Iran. Three was to put an end to its long-range missile capability.

And number four was to end support, Iranian support for the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas. They have failed clearly in terms of achieving any of those objectives. And furthermore, on top of that, the Strait of Hormuz is now under the control of the Iranians, which was not the case on February 27th. Number two, we have basically created a situation where our bases in the Gulf area are either badly damaged or destroyed. We've fractured the alliance structure that we had with the Gulf states. The international economy is in terrible straits, and there's a great danger if this war keeps on that will go off a cliff and end up in a world depression. And on top of that, the Russians, but especially the Chinese, have benefited greatly from this war, in large part because we've expended so many precious, so much precious ammunition in the Middle East that otherwise could be used in East Asia for the

purposes of containing China. Yesterday, or actually Sunday, former Secretary of State Tony Blinken made very similar arguments to what you made. Listen, I'm not a fan of the Biden foreign policy at all, but the core of his observations, which will play in a moment, are that Trump did not think this through. Number seven, Chris. in a situation where the president seems to be in a corner that he can't get out of. Some have called it an escalation trap.

I thought initially that he would be really hemmed in by two things. Markets on the one hand, munitions on the other. Markets in the sense that the longer this went on, and you saw gas prices going up. We're fast running through a lot of critical munitions, both defensive as well as offensive that we need in other theaters potentially to act as a deterrent. And I think the president knows that.

There's a good reason. Administration after administration, while trying to make sure that Iran never had a nuclear weapon, was very careful about the way we did that, and particularly not getting into a situation with them where they thought that the regime was existentially threatened, as they obviously do now. We knew that one thing they could do

would be to close the Strait of Hormuz, and it would be very difficult for us to open it again, absent some kind of land invasion of Iran, a country of 90 million people. And in addition to that, we have troops in the region who would be endangered. And what have we seen? They closed the strait, and they've killed our troops. So this was not fought through.

And beyond that, getting out of it now is very, very challenging. Kind of obvious. It's hard to disagree with him. But let me just add to what he said. Because it's not just the fact that we got into this war. it's the fact that Trump has missed a number of opportunities to put an end to it and instead has doubled down. The war starts on February 28th, and the first major ceasefire is on April 8th. That's when the 40-day bombing campaign ends. Now, at that point in time, it would have made sense for Trump to cut a deal.

But instead of doing that, what he does is he puts the blockade on, on April 13th, and he continues to play hardball with the Iranians. Finally, on June 17th, he ends the blockade and he signs the memorandum of understanding. This is the off-ramp, right? But what does he do? He violates the June 17th memorandum of understanding, and it is the United States that violates it in early July. And what we then start doing is engaging in a tit-for-tat campaign, right? And then what happens on July 23rd, this past Friday, is he ends the tit-for-tat campaign.

And now he wants to go back to negotiations. But the problem is that the longer the war goes on, the worst America's bargaining position is. So it would have made much more sense to cut a deal. after the April 8th ceasefire, and certainly stuck to the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding. But he didn't do that. And now he's looking for an off-ramp. But the Iranians have figured out that they have a vested interest in stringing him along and making this conflict go on for another couple weeks, if not months, so as to weaken our coercive leverage further and get an even better deal than they got in the 17 June Memorandum of Understanding.

Who controls Hormuz now? Oh, the Iranians clearly do. They've mined the strait that, let me put it differently, they've mined the channel that we created, which was a violation of Article 5 of the Memorandum of Understanding. And furthermore, even if they hadn't minded, they shoot drones and cruislems, and cruise missiles at any tankers or other ships that go through that U.S. dominated channel. So the only way you can get through at this point in time is to go through the Iranian-controlled

channel. So there's no question that the Iranians control the strait. Here's my friend, the former governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, saying the country is Sick and tired of Trump's act. Number six, Chris. There are no signs he's winning in Iran. And the Iranians have learned, as many of us in this country have learned, that the bluster is the bluster.

How many times does he threaten to bomb them out of civilization, bomb every power plant, bomb every bridge? And then he inevitably backs off. He thinks that this is a real estate deal, that if he blusters about someone else is looking at this property and you have to offer right now, that something. somehow they're going to do it. That doesn't work in international diplomacy. It's certain doesn't work with the Iranians.

The show is over. He can no longer distract from bad decisions with his charisma and his speaking. No one is paying attention anymore. They are bored with the act. And the Iranians notice all of this, Martha, and they're not going to take him seriously. Be much recognized that the United States lost this war, internationally recognized. Could you repeat that question? Sure.

Is it pretty much internationally recognized that the U.S. has lost the Trump-Netson-Yahu war? Oh, I think there's no question about that. It's just hard to miss the fact that we have no way of shutting down this war on favorable terms. And every time someone lays out a strategy for the United States to win this war, someone easily shoots it. down. And the reason is that there is no magic formula here. I just want to add one point to what Governor Christie said. There's no question that he's correct. But it's also important to emphasize that Trump cannot be trusted to stick to a deal. In other words, a memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17th. And it was Trump who walked away from that deal. And remember much earlier in his

first term, it was Trump who walked away from the JCPOA. So the Iranians fully understand now, if they didn't understand earlier, that you can't trust any deal that you work out with Trump. That means that in a future deal, the Iranians are going to want to front load that deal so they get more goodies up front than at the end because their great fear will be that once they sign the agreement, Trump will violate it. So they need guaranteed goodies up front. A goody like allowing them access to their own bank accounts and foreign banks. Absolutely. I think that is probably the principal demand that they will make moving forward. And there'll be other demands as well, but they will make sure they get a lot of goodies up front. But the one thing that they will even deserve, and it's

very important emphasize this is a settlement of the nuclear issue. They have been very clear from the beginning that the nuclear issue is not settled until the end. So if we get another memorandum of understanding, you'll get a ceasefire, of course, and a number of other things will happen. We were hypothesizing that they'll get their frozen assets back, and I think that will be the case. But the nuclear deal will be kept to the end, and that will provide the Iranians with significant coercive leverage over us because the Iranians understand that the United States and especially the Israelis want a new version of the JCPOA. And the Iranians surely understand that they don't want to negotiate that up front. They'll keep that till the end.

Isn't this whole invasion or attack on Iran a good reason why Iran should have have a nuclear weapon that would deter these types of attacks. Nobody attacks North Korea. Nobody attacks Pakistan. Well, there's no question about that. As I often say, former Israeli Prime Minister Ahud Barack once said that the reason he thinks Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons is because it makes so much sense. And of course, he's correct. We, of course, have gone to great lengths to make sure Iran doesn't get nuclear weapons. But at this point in time, given what's happened, the Iranians have powerful incentive to acquire nuclear weapons. And by the way, the problem has been compounded by the fact that it's quite clear

that the Saudis want a nuclear enrichment capability that's akin to the one that the Iranians have. And that means that should the Saudis get that nuclear enrichment, capability, they will, like the Iranians, have the ability to get a bomb somewhere down the road. And of course, this has all sorts of consequences for countries like Turkey and Egypt and Iraq, as they watch what's happening with Iran. They surely understand the logic that you just laid out vis-à-vis Iran. They see what's happening with Saudi Arabia and that it's moving to get a nuclear enrichment capability. And they'll all want one too. So the danger of nuclear proliferation as a result of this war has increased significantly.

And this is just another factor that we can add to that list I laid out at the beginning of the show of the downsides of this war. What has the war done to the American relationship with its, I don't know if it's present, but it's certainly former allies in the Gulf? Oh, it's done significant damage. There's no question about it. The fact that the United States and Israel started this war and the Gulf states were not driving the train matters when you take into account what actually then happened. These Gulf states were targeted. Great damage was done to them. and great damage was done to the alliance structure that they thought was going to provide security for them.

Can they trust the Americans going forward? Are they going to want the Americans to rebuild the bases on their territory, since those bases have proven to be giant magnets for Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones? I doubt it. But there's no question that this war, has done significant damage to relations between the United States and the various states in the Gulf. What tricks does Prime Minister Netanyahu have up his sleeve when he meets with President Trump in the White House later today? I don't think he has any tricks. I think this is going to be

a pretty straightforward discussion of two big issues. One is going to be what Trump does moving forward vis-a-vis Iran. And in that case, I think it's quite clear the Israelis want us to continue the war, go back to a tit-for-tat campaign, maybe go back to a major strategic bombing campaign. But the Iranians will push Trump not to end the war. And Trump, of course, I think now understands that he has to end this war sooner. You said the Iranians. You mean the Israelis will push Trump not to end the war? Yes, I'm sorry, yes, the Israelis. Yeah.

That'll be issue number one, and then issue number two will be southern Lebanon and even Gaza and southern Syria. I think that Trump will push the Israelis to leave southern Lebanon because I believe the Iranians are saying this time the Israelis have to leave southern Lebanon before we agree to another memorandum of understanding. And furthermore, Trump has a very important. interested interest at this point in time in getting the Israelis out of southern Syria because he's developing quite close relations with the Syrian leadership. And also, I think he'd like to

get the Israelis out of Gaza so that he can work out some sort of modus vivendi in Gaza. So there'll be, I think, significant disagreement between Netanyahu on one hand and Trump, on the other hand, on two issues, one, what to do with Iran moving forward and what to do with Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, southern Syria, and Gaza. But can you envision the IDF leaving southern Lebanon, southern Syria, and Gaza on its own voluntarily? Could you imagine even conjure Netanyahu giving that order? No, but the question is, can President Trump coerererer President Trump coerce the Israel to leave any one of those locations. That's the question. Is Trump willing to play heartball? Here's a possible situation moving forward. What if the Iranians say to Trump that we will not even

negotiate a memorandum of understanding until the Israelis are out of southern Lebanon, just southern Lebanon? What is Trump going to do at that point? Trump is under tremendous pressure to shut this war down. And if the Iranians won't talk, they won't play ball until the Israelis are out of southern Lebanon, there's going to be powerful incentives at play for Trump to try to coerce Netanyahu to leave southern Lebanon. So to go back to your point, they won't leave on their own. This is the Israelis. They won't leave southern Lebanon on their own. But the question is, can Trump use his powerful position to get the Israelis to leave? How stable or unstable is Israeli society in this time?

Well, I think that Israeli society is very unstable underneath the surface. I think what you see, because Israel is at war on so many fronts, is that it looks like things are quite stable. There's no question you have an election coming up. and the two or three sides, however you want to count them, are battling with each other. But Israel looks quite stable on the surface. I believe that once this war against Iran comes to an end, what you will see is an eruption of forces that reflect the tremendous dissatisfaction

that's sitting there underneath the surface and the lines of fracture among the various groups. groups inside of Israel, I think will manifest themselves in obvious and nasty ways once the fighting stops. And how unstable is the Netanyahu government? Well, I think there's a good chance that Netanyahu will be defeated in these upcoming elections in the fall. But as you and I have talked about before, you can never rule Netanyahu out.

He is a wily politician of the First Order, and he may very well. well survive. I'm not sure it makes much difference who wins in Israel. I don't think, you know, any of the alternative candidates are very different than Netanyahu himself. Well, the people that are competing for prime ministers seem to try and be outdoing each other and their bluster for a hardline attitude toward Iran. So you're right. You're right. The only differences and then Netanyahu's personality and personal baggage. Yeah, and it's not only the Iran issue, it's also the Palestinian issue. All of them are interested in the Greater Israel Project, and all of them are interested

in ethnically cleansing the Palestinians from Gaza and from the West Bank. You don't hear any of the other candidates criticizing the genocide in Gaza. In fact, they were basically cheerleaders when the Gaza invasion, the invasion of Gaza by the Israelis started back in October of 2023. And they have not protested at any point along the way. Let me switch gears, if I might, Professor Mearsheimer. The media in the West seems to have stopped the drumbeat that Russia is losing its special military operation with, Ukraine and that Ukraine is winning it. Do you have a handle on where things stand today? I think that the Ukrainian situation is deteriorating quite rapidly. First of all, it's quite clear

that on the battlefield, the Ukrainian line is beginning to buckle, the front line. In the east, it's beginning to buckle, and the Russians are making steady progress on a day-by-day basis. There's no question that the Russians are not making rapid progress, but they are making progress, and they will soon control all of the Donbass. And then there's the air war. Much attention in the West is focused on these drone attacks against Russia, which don't do serious damage and don't affect the outcome of the war in any meaningful way. But if you look at the Russian air campaign against Ukraine, it is doing truly serious damage. And most importantly, it has shut down the port of Odessa so that Ukraine is now basically a landlocked country. It cannot get imported goods and

imported weaponry through the Black Sea. Odessa is shut down and other ports on the Black Sea, other Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea are shut down as well. So you have a serious Russian blockade of Ukraine's ports on the Black Sea. And this is having disastrous consequences, not only on the economy, but on the war effort as well. So the Ukrainians are definitely on their back foot. And it has become obvious that you can't make the argument that Ukraine has turned the tide and is now winning this war. If anything, Russia is now moving forward and is going to win the war. And the only interesting question at this point is what does victory look like for the Russians? One of the websites reported that President Putin has called up 500,000 reservists.

That's an enormous influx of manpower into the Russian military, isn't it? Oh, of course. There's no question. about that. I mean, you know that since the conflict started, the Russians have not called it a war. They've called it a special military operation. Quite clear that as the Ukrainians, and not only the Ukrainians, the Europeans and the Americans, and this includes President Trump in recent months, have increased the pressure on Russia. The Russians have responded. The problem that Putin faces, is that this war has lasted longer than World War I.

And Russians are, and this is Russians across the board in the body populace and in the elite, are very angry with Putin for not winning this war more quickly. So the pressure is on Putin to put an end to this war. And to do that, he has ramped up the bombing campaign, as I just discussed. He's basically taken the Odessa port out of the control of the Ukrainians. And furthermore, there is evidence that he is increasing troop levels. And if that is the case, he will probably use those additional troops to move more quickly to conquer more Ukrainian territory.

And I think at this point in time, the only interesting question is how much territory the Russians end up conquering. Wow. Professor Mearshan, I'm a pleasure, my dear friend. Thank you for all your analysis, as always. My pleasure, Judge. Have a good week, and I'll see you next time. You got it. All the best. Thank you. And coming up later today, if you're watching us live in 36 minutes at 10 o'clock Eastern, Scott Ritter at 2 o'clock this afternoon, Matthew Ho, at 3 o'clock this afternoon, Colonel Karen Kodkowski, Judge Nipal Teno for Judging Freedom. Thank you.