Judging Freedom - Putin Doubles Down on War - Matt VanDyke in Ukraine

Episode Date: January 3, 2023

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Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Tuesday, January 3rd, 2023. A belated Merry Christmas and a belated Happy New Year to everyone watching and listening to us all around the world. Our guest today is Matt Van Dyke, one of the founders of the Sons of Freedom International, who comes to us from Kyiv, Ukraine. Matt, we haven't spoken in a couple of weeks. I'm glad you're alive and well, of course. Welcome back to the program and thanks for joining us. Your assessment of where the war in Ukraine stands now, early January 2023. I'm getting a little bit concerned about the lack of progress in winter. This is a time when Ukraine really needs to push an offensive. This is the weakest Russia is ever going to be.

Russia is reconstituting its military. It's ramping up the production for artillery shells and ammunition. This is a critical time in the war that I think will be looked back in history as a time when how much of Ukraine Ukraine's able to win back was determined. And they really got to pick up the pace to press their advantage in winter. You wrote to us the following, Ukraine isn't going on the offensive enough this winter. It's going to possibly cost them the outcome. It means we'll be here longer. We're also deciding on some offers we had to form or join a fighting unit before we get to your people who have essentially been advisors and trainers, potentially becoming fighters. What do you mean this will possibly cost them the outcome? Is the winter period so critical that what you say is a victory within grasp

could be lost? I'm saying it depends on how we define victory. There's no doubt that Ukraine's going to win and get Russia pushed back to pre-2022 borders. The question is whether it's pre-2014 borders. I still believe it's possible, but not taking advantage of the winter and covering some ground while the ground's frozen. Once it hits spring, it's going to get muddy. In addition to landmines, it's going to be hard to advance just through the mud. The same soil that makes Ukraine one of the bread boxes of the planet is the same soil that turns to horrifically thick mud like you've never seen before in late fall and early spring. So, you know, this was a time that Russia can't even feed and clothe its people.

They have serious logistical issues. Ukraine's better positioned for this right now. And they got to get on and move on and grab this land now. Because once Russia digs in, this is going to be a stalemate type war potentially and just more artillery war for years. Have the 300,000 troops that the Russians, that the Russian government activated from their reserves, in which we believe have completed their training, have they arrived and have they entered the theater of war yet as far as you know my understanding is that most of them have not arrived yet um the main talk around here is bakhmut

uh which is wagner group's uh collection of mercenaries and convicts uh given release in exchange for fighting uh that's where a lot of the actions happen ukraine government admits that r Russia's trying to tie them down there so they can't do offensive in other parts of the country. But yet their solution is to stay in back mood and keep fighting and allow themselves to be tied down by Russia. So how bad is the bombardment in and around Kiev and to the west of Kiev. Is President Putin succeeding in breaking the will of the Ukrainian people by visiting a horrific, heatless, waterless, electricity-less winter upon them? So far, not. Actually, recently, we've had more electricity than we've had weeks before this. So the electricity situation is actually looking like it's improved. Their defense here is phenomenal. There's a 90 plus percentage shoot down rate a lot of the times. There was a lot

of airstrikes a couple of nights ago. Very loud, terrifies a lot of people but really the damage that russia is able to inflict is minimal um it's really it's really quite shocking how effective ukrainian air defense is and when patriot systems are brought online um you know i think it'll be comparable in quality perhaps to israel's iron dome but it's going to make Russia's terror campaign against infrastructure largely irrelevant. Here's what one of our viewers writes. As we speak, Ukraine, per ends, U.S. drones are bombing inside, in caps, Russia. What do you think would happen if Russian drones were bombing inside the U.S.? We'll put the second question aside for now. Do the Ukrainians think that bombing inside Russia will weaken Russia or aggravate President Putin to the point where

he will want to demolish Ukraine? Well, he already seems intent on demolishing whatever in Ukraine that he can't capture, and even areas that he has captured, he's demolished first. So I don't think that's a consideration. Really, I think Ukraine's just trying to show that they can hit Russia way, way beyond Russia's borders. It's more of a harassment move. It's more symbolic. It builds morale on the Ukraine side, and it shows the weakness of Russia's air defense. If you can have drones hit places deep in Russia where they have nuclear bombers, then it's more evidence that Russia is a paper tiger or paper bear. What are the Sons of Liberty

International, your group, what are they doing now as we speak? Is it just training? And what and whom do you train? Do you train soldiers in using long guns or do you train groups of tech people in using sophisticated American hardware? everything from basic training to how to use anti-tank missiles, everything in between. So a lot of our trainings, tactical training, small unit training. There is some firearms training, but the Ukrainians mostly do that on their own. So what they usually don't provide their soldiers is a lot of tactical training. So that's where we step in. Last week we were training a Special Forces unit and that's generally the type of units that we train now, or special forces type units. Starting next week, our EOD team arrives and we're getting into demining operations as well here.

So that's a new program we're rolling up. And we're also, we've had some offers to do some fighting as well. That's something we're considering. Before we get to the offers to do the fighting, which to me is tantalizing, and I can't wait to ask you about it. You said more of your people are coming. Where do your people come from? Are they all Americans? Are they all young males like you with military backgrounds willing to come to Ukraine on their own?

The U.S. government has nothing to do with this. Do I have an accurate grasp on your group and your affiliated groups? Yes, they're all volunteer. They've been from various nationalities, but generally 90 plus percent of them are American, have been American. They come from all branches of the military. And who pays for this? Who provides food, shelter, clothing, and security? And is there a chain of command? Subs Deliberacy International is a 501c3 nonprofit organization. So it's all funded by donations.

We fly people over, we give them a place to live trainers or volunteers but we pay all their expenses while they're here um yeah do you accept do you accept um money or material from the united states government no we've never received anything from any government uh everything's private donations usually small donations and monthly donations. The Russian intel must certainly be aware of your presence. They're everywhere. They certainly are. I actually, a few years ago, somebody was in a conversation with a Russian diplomat,

and he said very clearly, this person, that what I and Sons of Liberty International do are not in Russia's interests, which was one of the greatest compliments that ever came back to me. Okay, I understand that. Tell me about the offers to become active in the fighting. I mean, who would offer this to you, and how would you do it? Well, I don't want to say which unit specifically, but as you know, there is an international legion component here and a few other groups here that are full of international fighters. You know, this is something that would be done outside the organization because the organization itself doesn't fight. It would only involve some of my personnel. It would also involve advising and training with units that were fighting alongside. But a lot of the international fighters have left.

There were some management issues with the International Legion early on. There were supply issues early on. Some of them were used just as basic infantry instead of special forces, which is what they're being used more as now. So there's been some changes in that system. So it's one thing we're taking a look at and considering the offers, because the more experience that we have at the front line, the better we can customize the training as well. How many international troops do you think are on the ground in Kiev? And again, is there a command and control

or are they just groups that are out there on their own? I don't know what the official numbers are. The numbers I'm aware of are just in the low hundreds. There's definitely command and control. It's a very bureaucratic war. You can't just grab a gun and go to the front line. Everything goes through change of command. No foreigner is allowed command and control. This is a very bureaucratic war. You can't just grab a gun and go to the front line. Everything goes through change of command. No foreigner is allowed to be officers.

Everything is under Ukrainian officers. So it is. It's very bureaucratic and regimented. And that's also something that has turned some people off. There were over 10,000 applicants early on. I don't know how many of that number are still willing to come over, but they're doing a little bit of a recruitment drive now to try to get internationals back, knowing what's coming in the spring, which will be one hell of a fight

against Russia. So not far from you, but to the west over the Polish-Ukrainian border are 40,000 American troops, many of them 101st Airborne. Right behind them are 90,000 Polish troops. Any inkling about whether, if at all, and if so, when, a force of that magnitude would enter the theater of war? I think there's no chance of that happening. You know, short of Russia using a tactical nuke or something that provides justification for that level of international intervention, I don't see it happening.

You know, Russia does have a three to four advantage of population size and people they can recruit. Ukraine has the advantage in technology due to supplies from the West. We'll see how that evens out. But there doesn't appear, and I don't think there would ever be any reason for an international military force backed by governments here. One of the people that Judging Freedom speaks with, in fact, he's on right after you, and he's about as popular with the audience as you are, Jack Devine, career CIA expert in all things Russia, makes no bones about the will of the West

to see President Putin removed from power. President Zelensky has made no bones about his will to see President Putin removed from power. He wants him tried as a war criminal. Do you think statements like this are made to gin up the morale of the troops or that these are legitimate international goals? Maybe a little bit of both, but I think the idea of Putin being removed from power in a coup d'etat appears decreasingly likely. You know, a lot of Russian oligarchs, anybody who's spoken up against Putin has been falling down stands or out windows lately. The death counts up to about 20. That also includes some who are pro-Putin, who I think are being assassinated by probably Ukraine or Western intelligence agencies.

But in any case, it seems that anybody who Putin views as a threat seems to be having an accident. And you understand the view inside Russia is that this still is winnable. And this still is winnable. This is not a guaranteed victory by Ukraine, especially when we see what's going to come in the spring when Russia gets back on its feet. Matt Van Dyke risking his life for a cause he believes in and gracious and generous enough to come on the show. Much appreciated. And thanks for joining us.

Those of you, those of you who are watching us live at 1115 Eastern, that's just 25 minutes from now. The man you love to hate, Jack Devine. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom.