Judging Freedom - Ray McGovern: The Russians Always Claim What is Theirs
Episode Date: May 19, 2025Ray McGovern: The Russians Always Claim What is TheirsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info. ...
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Today is Monday, May 19th, 2025.
Ray McGovern will be here with us in just a moment on the latest dispute in the intelligence
community and why the Russians always claim what is theirs.
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Hi, McGovern, welcome here, my dear friend. Before we talk about the Russian mentality
during negotiations, I want to ask you about the latest kerfuffle involving the intelligence community. We alluded to it on Friday during the roundtable with Larry Johnson, but now it has reared
its head again with statements made over the weekend by Secretary of State Rubio.
As I understand it, last month, two senior CIA analysts, after doing the type of study and analysis that your former colleagues do, came to the
conclusion that Tren de Aragua, the Venezuelan gang about which the president rails aggressively
and politically, is not controlled by or affiliated with the government of Venezuela. Then last week
the two senior people who authored and and revealed that report were fired. Then
over the weekend Secretary of State Marco Rubio said new analysis has shown
that the gang is affiliated with the government of Venezuela. What's going on here? Is analysis corruptible
like this? Well, it all happened before. No one was ever held accountable, Judge. They all got
performance rewards, for God's sake, from falsifying the intelligence on Iraq. And that was only what, 2002, 2003. Yeah, it looks pretty bad, doesn't it? You know, it was
February, I think, that the intelligence community advised the White House that, you know, the
Venezuelan government doesn't really have much control over these folks. And then apparently,
they were asked to take another look at that. No before Iraq, when they took another look at that, they said,
oh yeah, right, of course there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
But this time, these fellows apparently took another look at it and said,
no, we were right the first time, the president's wrong.
Now, for Tulsi Gabbard to dismiss them under those circumstances is really bad policy and
bad look as they say these days. There may be other things, Larry suggested, Larry Johnson on
Friday, that there was more to it that meets the eye and that may come out later. But for Rubio to
have his own intelligence analysis
now contradicting what the National Intelligence Council
said, that's a bad omen.
That's twisting the intelligence to fit the policy.
It shouldn't happen, but it's going to happen repeatedly
unless someone sometime is held accountable and not given
a cash bonus for yielding.
What kind of a message does this send to analysts?
Well to honest people, I'm just thinking, my grandson just graduated from a very, very
good college and I'm wondering how many of those people that are trained in the traditional way to
have some integrity, how many of those would be tempted to join the CIA, given what they
know?
I daresay the kinds of people are signing up, or maybe the malleable people who will
smell the prevailing winds and trim their sails accordingly. It's a bad situation, Trump.
I had hoped that things would be better under Tulsi Gabbard.
In some respects they are, but not in this one.
Yeah, I mean, going back to when you and Ray and I were talking about how the intelligence
community is telling their bosses what the raw intelligence is showing
them, but the bosses are telling Joe Biden what he wants to hear. It sounds to me as though nothing
has changed except these firings, these public firings. How can you fire somebody for being
intellectually honest? How can you fire somebody for releasing something that had permission
honest, how can you fire somebody for releasing something that had permission to release? How can you fire somebody for honestly doing their job? You could reassign them to another job, but to fire them?
Well, maybe she's trying to make a point. No, maybe she's trying to make an instruction. Look,
this is what happens. This is what happens if you serve up the wrong intelligence.
That's awful, Judge.
I had expected more of her.
But if this is the way it looks, and it's a very bad look, it's very bad news for the
president himself.
Does the president really think that the Russian economy is falling apart?
Does he really think that the Russians are losing more soldiers than the
Ukrainians? I mean, the cadavers that have been exchanged up to the most recent one, 25 to one,
25 Ukrainian cadavers to one Russian. Thank Larry Johnson for those figures, but they're real. So, you know, if the president is told these things
and kind of wants to believe them,
when he talks to Mr. Puccini, like right now,
10 o'clock Eastern,
he's gonna be proceeding from the wrong premises,
and only bad can come of that.
I have more hope for what's going to happen as we speak here, but if he's
misinformed and really believes that stuff and it's not just rhetoric that he puts out there, then he's himself
handicapped by these misconceptions.
You know, I was optimistic after one of the many speeches he gave last week,
which I really enjoyed,
when she said, we will no longer tell you how to live,
speaking to other countries in the Middle East,
a direct, harsh and warranted, in my view,
and I think you agree, criticism of behavior of American governments,
of going back to the beginning of the CIA, certainly aimed at the Bush
administration with Afghanistan and Iraq. But now... And the neocons, that's correct. Now it seems
like he is still in the clutches of the neocons. How does he get away from the clutches of the
neocons? The neocon in chief is masquerading as the secretary of state.
Well, did I mention that Trump is unpredictable?
They don't have to mention it. It's so obvious.
The other thing is that he's got attendance.
He's got people working for him who are hopelessly divided.
Now take Trump and maybe JD Vance and certainly Woodcock.
On the other side, you have people like Kellogg, people like the
secretary of state and, and others.
So, you know, will Trump be able to rise above this and be his own man?
Well, we'll see today, you know. I think when they get together today,
Pucci is going to have a very strong hand.
He's going to say, look, Mr. Trump, I really appreciate what you've done in getting the Ukrainians to the negotiating table.
That was you. I mean, Zelensky said he did it as a favor to you. Lavrov said,
yeah, thanks, Mr. President. So we're grateful for that. Okay? And we prepared. We had a National
Security Council meeting that wouldn't quit. We got all our generals there. We got a best negotiator.
He's got a sense of history, and what happens? Well,
you know, it doesn't look good unless you put more pressure on the Ukrainians, and if they
continue to walk under the pretense that these Europeans are going to help them, well, then you
can draw the right conclusions, Mr. President, but let's keep trying. I think this will be the byword.
We'll keep trying.
We'll keep these things going.
June perhaps will be the next session of this bilateral deal, bilateral negotiation between
Ukraine and Russia.
I think there's hope now that the negotiations have started just as there was hope originally a couple of months ago when Putin and Trump
personally started talking one to the other.
Well, Putin and Trump are speaking as we're speaking now, theoretically, if all of this
is going according to plan as you and I are taping this segment.
And the president is probably going to ask the President
of the United States, is going to ask the President of Russia, why don't you stop fighting
for a month and we can negotiate during the fighting. You sent my team and me a fascinating
clip over the weekend. It's nine minutes long. Chris edited it down to about two and a half minutes.
This is the chief Russian negotiator talking about history
and how the Russians, when they're fighting a war,
negotiate while they're fighting,
they don't stop fighting in order to negotiate.
And then he makes a very, very captivating statement at the end.
Listen to his final words.
The Russians always claim what is theirs, but now listen to this mini
history lesson from the Russian perspective.
But unfortunately the Istanbul process was also disrupted, this time due to the intervention,
direct intervention of the West.
And where does this lead?
As a rule, as Napoleon used to say, war and negotiations are conducted simultaneously.
Stalin proposes an armistice in Finland, that is to make peace.
The British and French egg them on.
You can't negotiate with the Soviets, you can't make peace.
We'll provide you with military assistance.
Volunteer Expeditionary Corps from England and France will come.
Naturally, no one actually arrived. After that, peace is concluded
and the fighting comes to an end. So what am I getting at?
War and negotiations have always gone hand in hand throughout history.
War and negotiations have always gone hand in hand throughout history. Probably the most vivid
and instructive example, Peter the Great.
Sweden forever lost its status as a great power
and the Russian Empire became a great power. But just a few years after the war
began
Peter the Great offered the Swedes peace. He said, we actually don't need anything. We have access to the Baltic
Sea, St. Petersburg, and just a little bit around it, you know, a security zone, and
that's all. Historically, these are Russian lands because the entire Leningrad region
and most of Karelia are all territories that once
belonged to the Novgorod Republic and Sweden had been chopping them off piece
by piece. We know that all of this is our ancestral land but we're not even
asking for it back. Just give us a little, give us freedom and access to the sea.
Give us St. Petersburg and the surrounding area and we'll end the war.
What to the Swedes say? No, we will fight to the last Swede. Charles XVI Give us St. Petersburg and the surrounding area and we'll end the war.
What to the Swedes say? No, we will fight to the last Swede.
Charles XV continues this senseless war despite Peter's repeated offers of peace.
But the funniest thing is, who do you think was supporting Charles XI?
England and France. In the end, we agreed to peace negotiations.
Russia and Sweden go on for a long time.
England and France are putting their foot down. No negotiations. Stop it.
Let's do it through intermediaries, through us instead, because it benefits them when two major powers are fighting.
In the end, these peace talks led to nothing. And only in 1721, 21 years after the war began, did Sweden finally sign a peace
agreement. But it wasn't just St. Petersburg and its surroundings. It was a significant
part of Karelia, the Leningrad region, the Baltics, and of course St. Petersburg itself.
And most importantly, Sweden forever lost its status as a great European power.
There you have it. Well, it's about how, in such a remarkable way, history keeps repeating
itself for us. Time used to pass slowly. Now everything is moving much faster. Bismarck,
who was an ambassador in St. Petersburg for many years, He always said, never try to deceive the Russians or
steal something from them because time will pass and sooner or later the Russians always
come to reclaim what is theirs. How do you read that? It sounds to me more of an academic steeped in Russian history than a developer of high
rises in New York City who's the president's good buddy because he's a good negotiator.
Medinsky is a historian by trade.
He is a personal aide to Putin.
So let me just dismiss one canard.
He's not a decision maker.
Of course he's not.
Putin's the decision maker, but Putin tells Medinsky what to do.
That's the way it works.
So what he's saying here is, look, we're in a position of strength here. Look at history here.
Even Napoleon knew that you continued the war as you continued your talks.
You know, the history, well, the history is accurate.
Do Americans know that history?
No.
Does every Russian student that studies history, and all of them do, know that history? No. Does every Russian student that studies history and all of them do know that
history? Yes, they do. Some of the remarks, although this video indicated, I'm from Vladivostok,
and as a kid I learned that history. So McGovern says, my God, I learned that history too,
but that was 65 years ago. I better check this out, you know? And I checked it out with one of my
best friends, a historian who wrote the book on Stalin. He's a professor emeritus at University
College Cork. Now, he said, yeah, this is accurate, but he said more. And I want to
quote what simple way he put this, because it's the same as what Medvinsky is
doing but it's simpler for Americans to understand.
Look, he said, peace negotiations take place at wartime, okay, because one side is winning.
That's what creates the condition for their success. In other words, the losers make concessions to avoid abject defeat, total defeat, and
the winners get enough of what they want relative to the costs of continuing the war.
Peace negotiators that follow a ceasefire generally fail because there's a military stalemate
and there's a lack of incentive to end the war.
Lastly, ceasefires can be prompted from outside forces like the US is trying to do now.
And this is really tough, but Trump has been able to get the talks going, which will remain a step forward, even if they fail to produce short-term results.
I think that's the bottom line here, and I hope that what comes out of this discussion going on as we speak here will result in a continuation of these talks. The Russians are in no hurry. Trump needs to be patient.
It needs to suppress this, this NAO con influence on him
and give the, give Wittkopf the charter to go ahead
and talk some more and encourage, encourage the Europeans
to knock it off and not give Ukraine the idea that they can still prevail.
I think Zelensky is getting the picture, and I noticed that Trump was going to be talking to Zelensky right after he talks to Putin,
and then he's going to talk to the Europeans. I think good things are going to come out of this today.
I'm in a minority, but that's why you are in the minority because you must know
that the historic lesson just articulated by Putin's aid was his chief negotiator, which
you just summarized so nicely, is probably falling on deaf ears on the Americans. Do
you think Keith Kellogg understands that you fight wars while you negotiate? Do you think Steve Witkoff understands that? Marco Rubio understands that? Donald
Trump understands that? This is core to the Russian mentality and Russian history, is
it not?
Well, it is. But the Russians, even Medvinsky said that the Russians are prepared to make concessions.
And he said that.
In other words, the overreaching, the overarching reality here, Judge, is that both sides want
to get rid of this damn war.
Now will Trump have enough power with the deep state and the neocons to make it happen?
That's the big question.
I think he's going to try.
And Putin, for his point, is going to try to make it as easy as he can to provide enough
lipstick on this pig of defeat in Ukraine to allow Trump to escape or to get out of it by saying, number one,
it was not my war. Number two, this is the best deal we could get. They're interested in root
causes here. Actually, last night or early this morning, our time, Putin himself made this point,
look, we want to do the root causes here. And you know, this
is what we're going to settle for. Nothing short and root causes before there's any ceasefire.
So the alternative, of course, the black view is that Trump is going to say, Oh, man, those
Russians are not serious. And we're going to go with those Europeans, the coalition
of the brain dead. Or what do we call them?
Yeah, I think that Trump does have an understanding
of the Russian mentality.
I think he manifested that when he told the woman that
runs Meet the Press, the Russians want all of Ukraine. He doesn't press the Russians want all of Ukraine
He doesn't believe the Russians won all of Ukraine
But by saying the Russians want all of Ukraine and then they end up with Crimea and the four-o blasts
He can say look at what I saved you
I saved you from the Russians taking over all of Ukraine Joe Biden couldn't do that. I did it
Yeah, and I prevented them from going and taking Poland and the Baltic states,
just like Joe Biden warned. They're not going to do that anymore.
I mean, to the degree that most Americans are brainwashed and believe Joe Biden
in saying the Russians won't stop there, then this is a rhetorical flourish that could help
Trump say, well, you know, look what I did. And so I see more hope here than most people do.
They're talking, this guy, Medinsky is really, really sharp. And he's going to represent Putin
He's gonna represent Putin just as well as he did earlier on in Belarus and in Istanbul three years ago. Correct. All right, Ray, the next time we meet will be Friday afternoon with Larry.
Maybe there'll be some profound news or profound disappointment or something, some sort of an intellectual feast by then.
But we'll look forward to seeing you again.
Thank you, my dear friend.
Thanks for accommodating my schedule today.
Much appreciated.
Most welcome, Judge.
Thank you.
The aforementioned Larry Johnson
will be here at 1130 this morning
and this afternoon on all of this at four o'clock,
Professor Jeffrey Sachs,
Joseph L. Palteno for Judging Freedom. You