Judging Freedom - Ray McGovern : What Putin Is Thinking

Episode Date: June 1, 2026

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Undeclared wars are commonplace. Tragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes to love your country you had to alter or abolish the government? What if Jefferson was right? What if that government is best, which governs least?

What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now? Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for a judging freedom. Today is Monday, June 1st, 2006. Ray McGovern joins us now. Ray, thank you very much. I do want to ask you about, since you have such an incredible grasp on Russian culture and Russian thinking,

what you think President Putin is thinking. But before we do that, I have to ask your views on what our longtime friend and colleague, Larry Johnson just said on air on this show. show about 35 minutes ago. Chris cut number five. I have now heard and I expect trying to get confirmation of that later today, but that there was a there was a message that the Pakistani foreign minister delivered directly to Marco Rubio on Friday and it was basically the possibility that Iran will do a demonstration with a nuclear weapon. Now, does that mean it is a nuclear weapon developed by Iran,

or does it mean it's a nuclear weapon that was given to Iran by, say, Pakistan or North Korea? I don't know the answer to that. Let me take you back to what you said a few minutes ago about Iran-Tenance. Are you talking about testing a nuke or testing something as if it were a nuke? No, testing, setting off a nuclear device. Meaning Iran has a nuclear device. That's what we're trying to clarify right now with the source.

Larry, this is profound breaking news. We haven't heard this from any other source. Right. What do you think, Ray McGregor? Warren. Judge, as you know, Larry has wonderful sources. I would think this really needs corroboration. The Iranians do not have a nuclear weapon.

Whether Pakistan or still less likely North Korea would do this for them, and where would they do it, and to what purpose? It just needs a corroboration or confirmation. I hope Larry gets that later this day. right now, I'm from Missouri. You'd have to show me. Got it. And I agree with you entirely, Ray.

And, of course, your relationship with Larry goes back many years, as does mine. Okay, before we get to what you believe Putin, President Putin, is thinking, why is the U.S. attacking Iran during a ceasefire and during negotiations? Well, partly because Israel is attacking Lebanon. They're characterized as retaliatory strikes or preemptive strikes. Each side is being very careful to say that all those the U.S.S.S. strikes, they don't violate the ceasefire. It's kind of a charade that's going on. But I don't think the military would be doing this kind of thing.

if they didn't have permission from the White House to do it, they're keeping people's feet to the fire, but they're also claiming now this fire is still on unless I've missed something as recently as this morning. So about 20 minutes ago, five minutes before we came on air, CNBC is reporting that Iran has announced that it is stopping negotiations with the U.S. and will engage in a complete blockage of the Straits of Hormuz,

except for those ships of friendly countries which pay its toll. Does that make sense to you? Well, it does. The Iranians don't see any real possibility of coming to a sensible arrangement with the U.S. They hold the high cards. They have Russia and China with them now, and they are confident enough to continue to insist. that Lebanon be included, okay? That, in my view, is really telling. In other words, they're not going to cut a

separate deal. It's going to be the orc of resistance that's going to include Lebanon. And that's the sticky wicket. Israel is attacking Lebanon as seldom before and suffering casualties because the Hezbollah has all kinds of rockets and things that they are shelling the northern part of Israel with. So it's, it's, I can see where the Iranians, that's enough. We're not even going to talk to you anymore. They will listen to what the Pakistanis pass them from the U.S., but the notion that Witkoff and Kushner would show up again to deal with the Iranians, not under present circumstances, not at all.

Wow. I mean, could you, do you think that the Iranians have, that this is accurate, have stuff, the negotiations? I mean, they've already said they don't, and this is understandable. They don't trust the American negotiators, and nobody can trust Donald Trump. Well, trust is key to negotiations. As we know, in recent history, two times recently, last year in June, this year in February, they were negotiating. They were close in February to a deal, and what happened well, Israel struck and according to our Secretary of State Rubio,

we were then, we had to strike because Israel had already attacked, and we were afraid that the Iranians would retaliate against us, and so we took preemptive moves in attacking them so that our casualties would not be as severe as they otherwise would be. He said that. In other words, he said Israel made us do it. And Joe Kent, to his great credit, made it very clear. Oh, yeah, I resigned.

I cannot in good conscience support the attack on Iran, which posed no imminent threat. We started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. That's as clear as you can get. I mean, this guy is really good. I quit, and this is why. Now, could it happen again? Could Netanyahu mousetrap Trump? Of course he can.

That's what the Iranians are afraid of. That's why they're saying, if that report is correct, look, don't bother us with faux negotiations anymore or double crossing. We've had it. We'll stay the course. We're not going to open the street. So what Trump is looking for is opening the strait of Hormuz. under Iran's terms and eventually and lifting the blockade, eventually he's looking for a deal on enriched uranium,

and Iran is looking for lifting U.S. sanctions. Let's see. Before the war, under the JCPOA, Iran's enriched uranium was limited to 3.67 percent. with international inspection, impossible to turn that into a bomb, and the Strait of Hormuz was open. So what did Trump gain? Well, you get anything yet,

except a whole bunch of losses and the billions of dollars. What it sort of came out of this with, this slavish devotion to Benjamin Netanyahu, who himself is in dire straits and continues to do genocide, which would be impossible, without our continuing to supply arms to Israel.

Joe Kent, March 31st, for any peace agreement to work, we must first restrain Israel. Israel will force any peace deal unless we take away the military aid it needs to attack Iran. It's very simple. I really admire this guy. It puts it in a nutshell without our military aid. They couldn't do these things. And yet, as you know,

And as Alistair and Larry have already said, it's getting worse in terms of what the U.S. Congress is willing to do not only to give the IDF, the Israeli military, the same benefits that our own soldiers have in addition to the other stuff. So that's really crazy. It'll be interesting to see what happens when the straight continues to be obstructed and the economy goes down to hell. not only in our country, of course, worldwide. So the Iranians will not enter into a permanent agreement without a strong mechanism to restrain Israel, and Israel will never allow the United States to enter into an agreement that restrains it.

Therefore, no agreement is possible. Well, you heard Ben Gavir just late last week say, we will allow an agreement to take place. We will just not allow this kind of agreement. Well, you know, that's pretty blatant. He said that quite openly. And he's the same guy that tortured, and some of them were raped, some of those people on the Samud flotilla that ended up in Israeli prison.

So this guy is really deranged. They're doing all kinds of things in the West Bank as well. Somebody's got to rein them in, and they must have something on Trump, because it'll be as simple as pie for Trump to say, look, it's up to here now. I don't care about my Jewish donors. We're going to end this thing. But you can't do that. He won't do that.

And I guess it has to do with the money he needs or what the major donors, the 1% of the 1% of the U.S. population, is given him and his colleagues. Alster Crook told us that Whitkoa, and Kushner have suggested to some Pakistani intermediaries that they, Whitkoff and Kushner, would invest in gleaming high-rise office buildings and residential towers in Tehran. A, it is reprehensible the self-dealing would be going on during negotiations. B, after all this, these people still don't understand the Iranian, the Persian mentality. do they? Well, if that report is true, it's just bespeak what you just said. They don't understand

the Iranian mentality. They don't understand the Hezbollah mentality or the other arc of resistance mentalities, which are trying to get back the occupied territories, which the UN ruled unanimously back in November of 1967, that under international law, Israel must give back those occupied. territory. That's what it's all about, and that's how long it's taken for Israel to solidify its presence there and kick other people out or at least disable them to the point where there's no threat to Israel. Does your gut tell you, I'm laying back to what Larry said, that if Larry and apparently our colleague and friend of Pepe Escobar is part of the communication, with which Larry was engaged.

If our friends Larry and Pepe are correct, wouldn't U.S. Intel know about this? Well, I think they should. I don't know exactly how sensitive this source is or how this source has been nourished and developed by Larry and Tippy. So it's really hard for me to say. It always astounds me how little the U.S. intelligence community knows. and also the good ones have trouble purveying their solid arguments,

so the solid intelligence, up through Rubio, who, after all, controls access of all intelligence to the president. So there's a big sticky wicket right there with Rubio controlling as National Security Advisor, all that information. What do you think I'm switching to the special military operation in Ukraine now. What do you think the Russian government will do in response to the attack on the girls' dormitory? Well, it's in response to a lot, but that being more or less, to use the American phrase, the last straw. Yeah, Judge, I dug out the statement just exactly a week ago

that Lavrov made saying to Rube, actually, this is a conversation. The readout comes from the Russian side. When he called up Rubio and says, look, let's make clear, I'm talking for Vladimir Putin, and this is what I'm going to say. There will be attacks. We're going to attack in Ukraine. We're going to launch systematic and sustained strikes on facilities of the armed forces, as well as decision-making centers. Well, we know that the Russians already did that a day, after that attack on that girl, the teachers college there in Lugans. The words used here, I looked up the Russian, systematic and sustained. Well, the word for sustained really could mean consistent or sequential or, in other words,

people were expecting, always every day down it's going to be. And I guess it was Piskopf backed off that. I don't expect it every day, but do expect it. Now, I do expect that they will be hitting all kinds of military targets in Ukraine in a way that they haven't done so before, perhaps even more Arishniks. Now, if they can't, if they fail to succeed in eliminating all the firing positions that these drones or other missiles come from, and if the Latvians, for example, is so stupid as to allow Iran to use some of their bases to fire drones and other missiles in Russia.

Well, then I think the Russians may be tempted to retaliate not only against Ukraine, but against those bases in Latvia, for example, from which these things might be fired. I think that would be a last resort. My guess, and it's just a guess, is that there's plenty of targets left in Ukraine, including decision-making centers. In my view, Putin will limit himself to doing that kind of thing before he's tempted to do what the Europeans really seem to want him to do, Judge. And that is, well, Putin explained this on Friday.

You gave a big pressure, okay, in Kazakhstan. And he said, you know, it must be just military-industrial complex enriching themselves on this, keep this thing going. But it's also, I think he didn't say this, in Putin's mind, why are they doing this? It can't be just the military dust. Do they want to,

do they want to mousetrap me into retaliating against a NATO country in a last gasp attempt to get the U.S. in with both feet? Now, in my view, Putin has to be really scared of that. He doesn't want to have an irascible, unpredictable Trump with his fingers on the nuclear codes as well as other things challenged in such a way that the Europeans can say,

look, Latvia, let's say, Riga. They say, look, we've been struck by the Russians. Yeah, the Ukrainians were using our bases, but the Russians hit a NATO country. What are you going to do? I think that's what Putin is afraid of. Now, what would Trump invoke Article 5? It's okay, we'll come to your aid right away.

I don't think so. But it doesn't matter what I think. What I put better is what Putin thinks. And in my view is that if I were here, I would say, look, you guys say there's no chance of that. You're all my advice. But look, would you say a 10% chance? Oh, yeah.

Okay, 10% chance is too much. We'll build up this country here. We're not getting a chance that some arrasible, some crazy person that has a nuclear capability will be shamed by those Europeans into honoring a treaty that really we think is in obedience, but we can't be sure. So that's my reasoning here.

He's a cool calculating, cool-hand Luke, in my view. It's going to take a while before he's provoked into that. And the latest TV shows that Gil D'Coto watches says they're not talking about this anymore very much. And so according to Gil, it looks like Putin is backing off. I think that's too much. It's not backing off. It's just biting his time. It will not be provoked.

I want to get back to Gaza. But before we do one last question about this conflict, Is Putin tempted to attack the EU manufacturers of arms in France, in Britain and in Germany? Tempted to be sure. Whether he would do it, I would cite the same reasoning that I gave before that would be attacking a Native country. I think that would be beyond the pale. Here's, we're back to Israel and Gaza now. This is reprehensible, but I want you to see it. Former director of the CIA and former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo on Gaza.

Chris number three. The next generation of young people won't remember October 7th in the same way. That's true in Israel and in America and broadly in the world. And we need to make sure two things. one it's not that we don't forget we need to make sure that the story is told properly so that when the history books write this they don't write about the victims of Gaza right they they they can't and it's I should be a little more precise though there were victims in Gaza right there it's true there are

civilian casualties in every war that's ever been fought but the victims were the people of the nation state of Israel though that the aggressor was the Iranian regime in the proxy of Hamas. And we need to make sure that the history books reflect that. And that requires each of us every day to talk about it in real time with our children, with our grandchildren, about it in a way that it's serious and thoughtful and complete and moral.

Defying his own admonition by talking about completeness and morality. It's not war. It's genocide. Talking about Gaza, it's genocide. And, you know, the Israelis have made it very clear that they're in that for the long term, they're going to chip away, they're going to get rid of all the Palestinians. That was their original plan after October 7th and arguably before October 7th. That gave him the rationale. And genocide is genocide, for God's sake.

So this guy makes me, this Pompeo, Pompas Pompeo makes me very angry to hear him saying, well, the history books, they won't talk about the genocide. God, I know, oh, give me a break. Well, maybe the New York Times, maybe the Washington Post won't talk about it, but the history books, if we're all alive to tell the history, we'll talk about it and will shame not only the state of Israel, but those who enable it, those who fund it,

those who enable genocide, and that's the United States of America, first and foremost. Ray McGovern, thank you very much, my dear friend. We'll look forward to seeing you Friday at the Intelligence, Community Roundtable with Larry. If Larry has breaking news, obviously we will stop what we're doing and bring it to everyone and we may need your opinions as well. Thank you, my dear friend. Thank you. Sure. Coming up later today, unless we have breaking news, at 3.30 on all of this, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, Judge Napolitano for judging freedom.