Judging Freedom - Ray McGovern: Will IDF Ask US For Permission Or Forgiveness?

Episode Date: April 22, 2024

Ray McGovern: Will IDF Ask US For Permission Or Forgiveness?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, April 22nd, 2024. Ray McGovern joins us now. Ray, a pleasure, my dear friend. Thank you for coming here. Who do you think got the better of whom in this, what initially was a tit-for-tat between Israel and Iran? And I don't mean to denigrate the fact that humans have died in this. And then there were all sorts of rumors that Israel had planned something far more devastating, but was prevented from doing so. We know, and we're both of the view, as are the folks watching us now, that Iran's response to Israel's destruction of the consulate in Damascus was not so much an assault as it was

a message, and apparently the Israelis were stunned and shocked at that message because the Iranians got through. What did Israel do thereafter? Do we know? Well, we do, actually. That was a watershed event, the Iranian attack on the Israel air bases and that intelligence unit up on the Golan Heights. What that showed was that Iran could do that generals at their consulate in Damascus. They did that precisely, and they didn't even use the hypersonic or their most modern missiles. So they demonstrated that this deterrence that Israel has always pretended to have and has had, in fact, is over. That's big. Now, with respect to the tat for the tit, the tit for tat, okay, here is Israel trying to figure out how to respond. Now, their instinct, their instincts, of course, was, oh my God, we've

got to respond to this, right? But from the very start, even our president said, look, take this wind. Look, it shot down 300 missiles. God, just take this wind. And so the Israelis, wonder of wonders, in my view, were restrained. What did they do? It was a pathetic sort of thing. They did actually nothing. There were some drones that attacked one of the airfields around Isfahan or appeared there. There was no real damage done. And those drones were not sent from Israel. They were sent from within Iran. So here's proof positive that the Israelis are finally coming up to the realization that, look, you know, not only are we no longer able to deter Iran, but the U.S. is saying, my God, if you try to attack Iran, we're not with you this time. We will not give you

offensive help. That's been made clear. So Netanyahu and those folks are between a rock and a hard place as they have never been before. There were rumors and even a report over the weekend by someone whose journalism, you and Larry and McGregor and Ritter and I respect, Pepe Escobar, that the Israelis had launched a nuclear device which they plan to detonate over Iran in such a manner as to destroy its electrical grid. I mean, this sounds fantastic, what I'm about to say. You know it, because we've talked about this. And the Russians shot this plane down. Now, that seems almost fantastic. Is there any reason to believe that or to reject it? It's not almost fantastic. It's fantastic. Pepe Escobar is an incredibly able journalist.

Yes. But even he said, look, it's just, I have this one source. He's not even in Israel or the UN. He's in Asia. And he told me this. Now, when you see Pepe Escobar, you take it seriously. And then you check with people who know about these things like Scott Ritter and Larry Johnson. That's what I did. I was on an interview right after all this happened. And, you know, they shoot it down for technical and other reasons. And just it doesn't make a lot of sense. I think Pepe was misled. I'm sure he repeated what his source said.

But it doesn't parse. And by now, we would have had evidence, in my view, that there was support for this notion that the Russians shot down an F-35 with a nuclear weapon. Not almost fantastic, fantastic on its face. The Israelis have always believed that they're, and if this is a too broad a generalization for me, for you, let me know. The Israelis have always believed that their survival in the geography where they are is based on other countries fearing them. Does Iran fear the Israelis after the past two weeks? Not in the way that has been in the past. The Iranians have been gradually building up, building up, building up this deterrent capability, which they have now demonstrated. OK, it's like a case study.

Look, Israel, this is what we can do. We'll send these drones. Yeah, shoot down the drones. We'll send some crew. Yeah, shoot them down. But we're going to get through. Witness the fact that we hit that airfield and we hit that intelligence center. So next time we're going to even use our hypersonic missiles and you don't have any defense against that.

So deterrence is now a real deterrence on the part of the Iranians deterring Israel from doing the kinds of things that it would willy nilly do in the past. The Israelis are deterred. And the big factor, of course, is that Israelis used to have friends that would say, we'll defend you, we'll support you for as long as it takes. And what the President of the United States said a week ago is, take the win, we're not going to support you if you mount an offensive offense, a military operation against iran funny you should say it's funny you should say take the win uh john sauer who's uh you probably know him uh he's the former head uh of mi6 said over the weekend on uh on the Israelis have lost in Gaza.

They should just come home and declare themselves the victor and deal with the Iranians. Listen to this. Cut number nine this morning, Chris. This general is saying that you have to finish the job in Gaza. I'm not so sure about that, actually. I think Israel succeeded in reducing Gaza to rubble. Is that a success? Well, exactly. That's not exactly a success.

They haven't secured the release of the remaining hostages who are still alive. They haven't killed the Hamas commanders. They've caused an enormous amount of humanitarian suffering. Frankly, I think from the Israeli point of view, they can change the subject. They can switch to Iran and Hezbollah and just call it a day in Gaza. I think that is conceivable. But the alternative, Christiane, is if the Israelis do go back in a big way into Rafah to take on the last of the um hamas battalions yes there's a security logic to it but will they actually achieve any more than they've achieved already

can they achieve any more than they've achieved already what did you think of that analysis by the former british chief spy judge i wish you were the current MI6 head. I mean, here's Tom Sawyer finally coming clean and saying, look, the war is lost in Gaza, unless. Now, the unless is what worries me. I mean, Netanyahu and his coterie of right-wing friends have such a big stake in this, Netanyahu including a personal stake. What will they do now? Will they follow Tom Sawyer's advice and say, well, look, you know, let's tuck tail and just make deterrence against Iran and Hezbollah? I don't think they have that option in terms of Israeli politics. I think they have to do something drastic despite what President Biden has told them. And I think they fully expect,

you know, they fully expect that when push comes to shove and they get in real trouble deep, that Biden will come around because it's an election year and he needs the full support of the Israel army called AIPAC. Meaning the full support of the United States military in support of Israel in a war against Iran, right? Well, no, it won't come to that. Let's say that Netanyahu goes into Rafah, where there are 1.4 million Gazans sequestered there. He's going to get into real trouble because he's just going to be killing more and more civilians. Hamas is, if it's still there, underground. They won't be able to touch Hamas. So what's Biden going to

do then? Well, he'll be tempted to send still more weaponry, even more sophisticated weaponry. And I think, whether he does or not, I think Netanyahu believes that he will. He once talked about U.S. support being absurd, and he used that word again over the weekend. So if he thinks that U.S. support is so absurd that it will support him no matter what for as long as it takes, as we say these days, he's going to try something really out of the ordinary. I don't know exactly what it will be, but he's not going to tuck tail and live with the situation such as it is. Here's Mr. Sawyer again saying that Hamas, no matter what Bibi does, Hamas will reconstitute. I think Hamas will be able to reconstitute its military forces. There'll be plenty of volunteers for Hamas battalions emerging out of this conflict. And the only real answer to both Gaza and the West Bank is to have an authoritative

Palestinian leadership which takes responsibility for those territories in the context of working towards a Palestinian state which lives alongside a secure and peaceful Israel. Is he speaking for himself, or does the British government really believe that a two-state solution is possible with Netanyahu at the helm? At the risk of defaming myself, he's one of these retired intelligence officers. I know some pretty good ones, Ray, but on this side of the pond. Well, this one, you know, is saying true things. And two years from now, he'll be looked on as a real savant, as having predicted what's going to happen. Why the hell did he tell his prime

minister while he was in office these things? So it's, yeah, he's on the ball here. He's not trying to do anything other than to burnish his image so that he could say a couple of years from now, look, I told him, I told Christiane, I'm on board. Didn't you see that? I mean, it's pretty, it's pretty cynical. Does Netanyahu know what he's doing? Hamas taking on Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran proper at the same time? He's between a rock and a hard place, Judge. He thought he knew what he was doing when he started this thing in response to the October 7th events. He didn't realize it would come out this way. After all, what, six months plus into this thing? And now he doesn't know it would come out this way after all what six months plus into this thing

and now he doesn't know what to do US support has been withdrawn to the extent that he might want to hit out against Iran or even Hezbollah now what is he going to do? I don't know what he's going to do but he's not going to sit back in my view and do nothing that's uncharacteristic of these guys. They're going to do something really, really stupid, it seems to me.

And the question is, will the Biden in an election year reverse his perspicaciousness and say, oh, all right, here, Netanyahu needs our support, and military will be sent, military, U.S. military will be sent in more than an air defense function to help Netanyahu. Is the Israeli public in a state of fear after the Iranian response? I mean, I think you and Larry have both said that one of those bases, I don't remember which one, I haven't paid attention to the names, is arguably the most defended and secure place anywhere in Israel, maybe even anywhere on the planet. And Iran penetrated it. Yeah, that's the air base right in the desert there in Negev, from which the F-35s took off to do in those Iranian generals at Iran's consulate in Damascus. Yeah, some got through. And I think it's really important to emphasize that Iran was not using its most sophisticated misslery.

It saves that for next time. Now, whether the Israeli public is chastened or fearful, yeah, I just really don't know. The press in Israel is a little freer than ours, if you can believe it. So they have the means, if they read Haratz or some of the more liberal

progressive papers, they have the means to understand what's going on. But, you know, at last count, 68% of the Israeli people, not the government, the people wanted to finish off the Palestinians. That's called ethnic cleansing. That's called genocide. So the government, such as it is, has the full support of the Israeli people, they see things in a very parochial way. If the Israelis invade Rafah, will it be with missiles and fighter jets or troops on the ground? And if with troops on the ground, will they be met with resistance, severe resistance by Hamas fighters? Well, you know, the place is crowded as can be. They can't do anything without killing a whole bunch of civilians. Now, at one point,

I guess it was about a month ago, Biden said, well, 30,000 Palestinians killed. My, are we going to tolerate another 30,000? Well, when they get to 60,000, is Biden going to be shamed into calling the whole thing off, which he has the power to do? I just don't know. is depending on what he said way back in 2001. American support for us is 80%. That's absurd, says Netanyahu. It may be less than 80% now, but I think in an election year, Biden will see no option other than to support Bibi if he gets in real trouble. Here's Secretary Blinken talking about Rafah, the United States,

and Netanyahu, cut number 12. Mr. President, you are opposed to a military operation in Rafah as long as there is no plan to evacuate one and a half million Palestinian civilians. The Israeli government is no plan to evacuate 1.5 million Palestinian civilians, the Israeli government is adamant to go ahead. What is your understanding of the plan now, and what is acceptable for the U.S.? SECRETARY BLINKEN We have been very clear about this. President Biden has been very clear about this.

We cannot support a major military operation in Rafah. First, there are currently somewhere around 1.4 million people in Rafah, many of them displaced from other parts of Gaza. In the first instance, it's imperative that people are able to get out of the way of any conflict. And doing that, getting people out of harm's way, is a monumental task for which we've yet to see a plan. And not only getting them out of harm's way, making sure that they can be supported with humanitarian assistance if they're out of harm's way.

But second, even if people are largely out of harm's way, inevitably there's going to remain a pretty significant civilian population in Rafah. And we believe that a major military operation with a large presence of a civilian population in Rafah. And we believe that a major military operation with a large presence of a civilian population would have terrible consequences for that population. I think that's hogwash. They could stop the military invasion with a phone call, and they know they cannot get the civilians out of the way if they fail to stop the military operation? Well, it's hogwash, but it is putting President Biden on record through Blinken as saying, look, we will look askance at further extermination of Gazans in Rafah. Now, when Blinken talks about there's no plan,

well, he had a plan. He trotted off to Cairo in October, just a week after the October events, the Hamas attack on Israel, and he tried to sell this plan to Sisi, President Sisi of Egypt. He said, look, you got that Sinai desert there. We could give you a million tents, a million tents, and they can accommodate the palace. He just let them in there, and Sisi said, go to hell, okay? So there is no plan, and the reason there's no plan is because no place to put these people who have already been driven out of their homes in the rest of Gaza. So, again, what's Netanyahu going to do? Well, I don't know. But this is as clear a warning as you're going to get, except for the one that Biden himself gave with respect to Iran.

Look, take the win. Don't do anything drastic. So I do see things changing. I think you're right when push comes to shove, as I said before. If Netanyahu gets in real trouble, then it is just hogwash. They'll go in. But, you know, I think these are very clear warnings. I'm more hopeful now with the Iranian retaliation, with the Iranian deterrence now, and with these warnings from Washington.

I don't know exactly what the Israelis are going to do. I don't think they're going to tuck tail. But what options do they have? I just don't know. What do you think Putin feels about all of this adversity between Israel and Iran? Putin has been in direct touch, or Lavrov, his foreign minister, with the Iranians all along here. Matter of fact, Raisa, the president of Iran, called Putin about five days ago. They consulted.

The readout was very sympathetic to what Iran is doing. What most people don't realize is that a 20-year friendship agreement treaty with Iran, between Iran and Moscow, is about to expire. A new one has already been worked out. It awaits signature and ratification, but it approaches a defense treaty. I mean, that's the information I got, changes the ballgame. So with Iran demonstrating not only its capability, but also its caution as to not to use everything it has. And the Russians really being very, very intent on preventing a widening of the war in that area.

The Chinese as well. The Russians and the Chinese with Iran part of BRICS now, for God's sake. The whole world has changed. And the pity is that President Biden doesn't get it. And his advisors either don't get it or they're afraid to tell him. Are there a thousand French troops in Ukraine as we speak? Not intelligence people, not military in civilian clothes, but combat troops? No. I know of none. When they come in, they're going to be obliterated. Now, there's that wonderful

expression, you can sheep dip them, okay? You can take French troops, sheep dip them, and put on a Ukrainian uniform, and there are lots of those. Many were killed in an attack on a hotel about a month ago. French troops, sheep dipped into Ukrainian uniform. Now, I don't know what Macron is trying to do, but it's very clear that if he sends any appreciable amounts of overt French troops into Ukraine, they're all dead. They're all dead within a day. So, you know, he must have some political reason for pretending to be able to do that. I don't see that that will be happening.

And I don't really understand Macron, except he is very unpredictable. If that does happen, will CIA inform Langley before it happens? Oh, my God. I sure hope. We've been trying to warn the president about this. I mean, we wrote a veteran intelligence professionals for Saturday memo. Actually, Scott Ritter authored that memo. He said, look, Mr. President, for God's sake, if the French troops go in there, they're going to be obliterated.

And please, please make sure that they will not pretend to be NATO troops and try to trigger Article 5. Just make sure of that. And actually, the White House has taken some steps to tell the world, as well as the French, look, don't even try it. Ray, thank you very much, my dear friend. A variety of topics here, and I so appreciate your analysis. We'll see you at the end of the week with Larry, though I think it's Matt Ho this week because Larry has another assignment. We'll let him talk about it.

Well, thanks, Josh. Okay. All the best, my friend. Have a good week. You as well. Coming up at 11 o'clock this morning, the aforementioned Larry Johnson. So let me check my calendar here. At 2 o'clock this afternoon, Colonel Douglas McGregor.

At 3 o'clock this afternoon, Professor Jeffrey Sachs. And at 4.30, Scott Ritter. This is our first team on Monday for you today. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thank you.