Judging Freedom - Re-Shuffling of Powers - China, Russia, U.S. around Ukraine - Tony Shaffer

Episode Date: March 23, 2023

authorities within the Patriot Act, Judge, which does not permit any adequate oversight of the agencies you just mentioned. And most importantly, those people who are supposed to be immune from being surveilled, people who are innocent or members of Congress or members of the media are authorized to be spied upon just because, yeah, you may have someone three lengths away from you may have some contact with some bad person somewhere that they use as a pretext to get into everything. And it's completely illegal and very dangerous. OK, I want to move on to Ukraine. Earlier this week, President Xi of China, and you're a student of Chinese politics, had three very public ostentatious days in Moscow and at one of them in the physical presence of President Putin in the Kremlin publicly called for a ceasefire in Ukraine. would this have happened without Putin or his underlings having agreed to this before the

Chinese president made that statement in President Putin's presence? I think everything that you're seeing has been, to use a term, pre-chewed. It was pre-digested. Yes, I think they've actually kind of gone through and they've run this. And just like we do, Judge, they have people who sit back and do evaluations of how certain things are going to play before their audience. And I think this is the thing to remember about all this. This isn't about the U.S. audience at this point. We're irrelevant. As a matter of fact, they aren't even actually considering us as a major factor when they do these things. The larger audience is the EU, Africa, and Asian

countries, because at this point, the United States is seen as completely feckless and not a player. And so whatever they do, they really don't even consider how it was going to be viewed by us or the U.S. audience. That is a very interesting, a great, and a compelling answer, especially in light of what the U.S. had to say about it. Gary? Admiral Kirby. We'd be concerned if coming out of this meeting there was some sort of call for a ceasefire, because right now, while a ceasefire sounds good, it actually ratifies Russia's gains on the ground. It actually serves Russia's purpose for a ceasefire to basically call a stop right now without any acknowledgement that Russia is

illegally inside Ukraine. So United States will be against the ceasefire because this principle issue or because it was proposed by China? I think I've been very clear. It's about the principle of a ceasefire called for right now, which would essentially just ratify Russia's gains. So that interview with Admiral Kirby, who's the employed by the Chinese government, interviewer. Right. Basically says we don't care if Russia, China, we wouldn't even care if President Zelensky agreed to a ceasefire. We won't go along with it. Now, this interview with President or with Admiral, forgive me, with Admiral Kirby was before President Gee made his statement. What the heck is he talking about? Well, let me do my best, John Kirby. Well, Judge, I think I've been very clear in pointing out that

John Kirby belongs to a group which is akin to the high school debating team. And since then, he's acting like an adolescent teenager who has more steroids than brains. All right. No, I'm serious. Look, the way he presents it is just, it's like, to my point, we just, before you brought this up, Judge, they are behaving like a bunch of emotional teenagers

who have been left out of going to the prom. And that's what's going on. So he's being over the top, overly dramatic, and oh, we're just not going to go along with it then. What kind of adult speaks like that if they're actually concerned about the Ukrainian well-being, the issues regarding how we're going to defeat the Russians, if that's what they're really trying to do, and I'm not convinced at this point, or it's just them being upset because they don't have a seat at the table and nobody takes them seriously. And I think it's the latter. Nobody takes them seriously at this point, Judge. Whatever he says or does, whatever Biden says or does,

it's just not acknowledged or relevant. But it's almost as if, let's say President Zelensky confronts reality and realizes that Russia can't lose. Right. Why should he sacrifice another 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers above the two or 300,000 that have been sacrificed already? Let me at least start talking. What does that mean? The United States would object to the talks? What is the U.S. going to do? Fire their own HIMARS on their own without Ukrainian soldiers? Well, with the current leadership, Judge,

I'm just saying, look, the fear I'm hearing, and I'm not sure what your other folks are hearing, but I'm hearing that the biggest fear is Xi goes to Ukraine. He sits down with Zelensky and says, have I got a deal for you? Let's sit down and try to make an end of this. Go to ceasefire and try to see how we, the Chinese, can, lay out to Zelensky saying, they're not giving you the tanks like they promised. They're not going to give you F-16s. Let's face it, the numbers are not for you. I mean, it's almost like a mafia, like, you know, you're not going to win this, but I got a deal for you. You know what the deal could be? The Chinese could rebuild the parts of Ukraine that have been destroyed by the war. That's right. Right, right. You and I have a lot of friends in the Republican Party.

Back when we were younger and not as smart as we are now. Okay, couldn't resist that. But we both know Ed Rollins, who was the senior advisor to President Reagan for eight years, managed both of President Reagan's campaign. You also know he managed the campaign of the governor of New Jersey, for whom you once worked, Tom Kane, who put me on the bench. So we can both confirm his bona fides. Yesterday, I interviewed him, and he made some very interesting statements. I want you to look at two of them, but the first one about, I think you'll agree,

about the likely, now this is a political observation, but a very astute student of history, senior in years, extremely well-read, the likely outcome of the conflagration in Ukraine. Take a listen. I don't think Russia's going to win. What I think Russia's going to do is try and solidify what they've already captured. They're not going to conquer Ukraine. And I think Ukraine would love to go fight and do some damage to Russia. That isn't going to happen. I think you're going to get into tactical nuclear weapons. I don't care who you are. I'm not a military leader, but that's just what's going to happen. I understand human nature. And Putin is not going to be the man who's going to lose Russia. And he now thinks Russia includes the provinces they've

already taken. And it'll go on for another year with a lot more bloodshed and a lot more resources. Ukraine doesn't have the resources. I think China will give Russia the resources that they need. And the other allies, Iran and the others that are dangerous allies to us, will all unify around Russia. This is the man that talked Governor DeSantis into taking the position that Ukraine is not our fight. Right. Well, he's right. It's not our fight. And I think, and I remember you asked him in that interview, Judge, about do you think President Reagan would have done what Lindsey Graham recommended, that just start shooting planes down, and he wouldn't have shot down Russian planes over the drone. I agree with his thinking on that.

Ed is actually aptly examining the situation from the Russian point of view. The Russian point of view is we're not going to lose this. And we have way more numbers, at least an order of magnitude, perhaps two orders of magnitude, more resources and forces than the Ukrainians. And if it looks like something's about to happen where they're going to lose, I don't think there's any doubt that they would use nuclear weapons. They're just not going to lose. And I think any rational student of history would examine the underpinnings of why the Russians are so adamant about that. And the Russians aren't going to budge. This is not negotiable.

And I think others need to take. And I think maybe that's how Ed presented it to Governor DeSantis. The Russians aren't going to budge on this. Don't even try. So if you or I got to interrogate Admiral Kirby, or if we got to interrogate the president and said, what is your military goal? Is it to drive the Russians out of eastern Ukraine or out of Crimea? Militarily impossible. Is it to drive President Putin out of office? Militarily impossible. Is it to drive President Putin

out of office? Not militarily achievable. How would they answer that question? Well, I don't think they can because Joe Biden has said both those things. He said through proxies that we want to retake Crimea for Ukraine. Ain't going to happen. And he's also said he wants regime change regarding Putin being gone. Ain't going to happen. So this is my problem with this over-militarized national security foreign policy we have. And I've said this to you. I've said this to others. Both sides do this, by the way, not just the Democrats, but it's more pronounced with the Democrats. Judge, we've led with technology and weapons of war, not words of peace or wisdom. And that's the problem we're facing right now.

You've had all these knuckleheads. They're really knuckleheads. I do mean that. Who've said all these obtuse and stupid things, which will never be actionable. And yet they're very provocative and actually only justify having the Russians get their backup and use that, our own words, our side's words, to justify their actions. This is what's ironic. The very things we're saying help them justify their actions. When you talk about Kirby not saying the right thing, that's what, you know, Kirby and others have said those things, which actually play well to Putin's audience and permit them to justify their own actions. It's a self-picking

ice cream cone. I understand that politics can be involved in achieving the rank of admiral but there's got to be some respect there's got to be some intellect does there have to be intellectual honesty i mean does he really it's a guy whose whole career has been in the military you know when i first met him he was a spokesperson for the pentagon in uniform i know that's what i met him too. You've known him too, but does he know what he's talking about? Does he believe what he's saying? Is there credibility coming out of this man's mouth? Besides being a consummate selector of wonderful ties, John Kirby knows exactly what he's doing. He is speaking with precision and alacrity based on what he's told to say, Judge. He is the ultimate salesman. If I were a betting man, I would bet that after he leaves

this, he will go and open a used car dealership selling Pintos and doing well at it. I'm not joking. I mean, he's just that, he does what he does extraordinarily well. He's instructed others. Some of the folks I work with now, Judge, he taught. But, you know, it's, again, his skills can be used for good or evil. I'm just sorry John has chosen to use them for what I consider an evil cause. Here is Ed Rollins again recounting for us pretty much the argument he made to Governor DeSantis. And by the way, Donald Trump accepts the same view. The two of them, the two likely combatants at this point, pre-indictment in late March 2023, the apparent two combatants for the Republican nomination for president, are both opposed to U.S. involvement militarily in Ukraine. But here's the argument Ed Rollins made, which is,

in a nutshell, it's not our fight. There are 30 nations in NATO. Russia is not on our border. Ukraine is not on our border. There's a humanitarian effort that you always want to go in and see some bullying stopped. But we're the only ones in there. We're the only ones paying the price. And every time another country puts weapons in, we have to go replace those weapons. And I think the American public now sees a lot more priorities and doesn't see an endgame here. As long as Putin is there, Putin's going to stay in this war as long as possible. He doesn't care how many men it takes to wipe out.

At the end of the day, he's still got all the nukes. We have nukes. Ukraine has no nukes. And sooner or later, he's not going to lose Russia, and he's not going to lose the ends of Ukraine that they've captured. So my sense is, building his allies with China. I sit here and I watch all these news guys basically talk about, well, what war is China ever won? Why are we worried about China?

As I recall my history, which I am a historian, they did a pretty effective job on us in Vietnam, pretty effective job on us in Korea. And the Chinese army today is far greater military than it was way back when. Is the Chinese military stronger than the American? The United States military currently is not prepared to take on a peer or near peer, because as Doug McGregor often says, we've been chasing around people who wear pajamas as our primary adversary for the past 20 years. And that has made us weak. Plus, the issues of woke, which we don't have time to get into. But the issue is the Chinese have made an alliance that they believe will be effective in deterring the United States via the Russians.

I mean, Judge, as you recall, you study history as well as I do. Nixon played the China card against the Russians back in the early 70s. And did so brilliantly, yes. And here we go again, all the other way around. So, yeah, I don't think the Chinese want a military confrontation. I don't. But with that said, even if they're one that came, even if we provoked one or they decided to do one, we're not prepared to actually do it.

Our combat power, and again, I'm going to echo what Doug says here, the number of forces we have available for actual combat operations is minuscule compared to what would be required to actually conduct a near-peer battle of any nature for any extended amount of time. So it's not practical. And the more we have people like Kirby saying antagonistic and completely inane things, the more likelihood the miscalculation or the arrogance of cultural expedition, basically the projection of our own cultural values from someone else is going to get us in trouble. Can you push back on this argument, which I heard recently? Oh my goodness, if Ukraine falls to Putin, that's going to signal war of mainland China on Taiwan, and we'll be stuck defending Taiwan. To me, that's an absurd argument. There's no logical nexus between what happens in Ukraine and what the Chinese Communist Party designs on Taiwan might be. But secondly, how could we possibly defend Taiwan? We couldn't even get enough manpower and equipment through the Chinese Navy and Air Force to get them there.

Yeah, three things real quick. First off, Taiwan is the foundry of the planet for all microchips of any relevance. And I heard General Kellogg, one of the people who actually advised President Trump, that we will destroy the foundries first in Taiwan before we give them to the Chinese. Like, what? It's like, what? When did we become the Nazi party retreating from Poland into Germany and destroying everything as we retreat? That's insane. there we you know we did something called plan orange during world war ii it was a very methodical very well thought out uh series of operations to retake islands from the japanese it was very effectively done huge hugely resourced took a year just to figure out how to resource it and then when we executed it took five years so the idea that all of a sudden we're just going to go over and take care of taiwan is insane there's no capability for that and third the

russians and chinese have both developed classes of weapons, which you and I've spoken about already. Those hypersonic missiles that the Ukrainians are having a hard time, nearly impossible time stopping. Those things were actually designed to take out aircraft carriers. So our primary means of force projection, which will be necessary to defend Taiwan, will not be, I believe, effective based on the new weapons that have been produced by the Russians and Chinese. So at this point, someone's going to have to come up with a better plan than what's been put forth by our side at this point. So I don't agree with the idea that we can just jump in and defend it. Late last week, the International Criminal Court

indicted President Putin and others and the Russian government for war crimes. Interestingly, it's not murder, it's not torture, it's not an illegal war, it's kidnapping. The allegation is that they kidnapped Ukrainian children and are bringing them to Russia and are indoctrinating them. Putin's argument is these are orphans whose parents have died. What do you want us to do? Let them roam around the streets when their home has been destroyed. We are saving their lives and health. And as soon as their relatives can communicate with us, of course, the children will be returned.

Not my point. court, of course, is a court to which every country on the planet is a signatory, the Treaty of Rome, except for Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the U.S. I wonder if Joe Biden knew that when he praised the International Criminal Court for indicting President Putin. Nevertheless, former president and probably future president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, had some extremely harsh words for any country that would try and arrest President Putin. His comments were made in response to those of the German foreign minister who said words to the effect of if President Putin comes to Germany, we will arrest him. Now, President Medvedev's words are in Russian. I'm going to speak over the words so that folks listening to us, not watching us, will know the English translation of what President Medvedev Они вдруг принимают вот такое решение в отношении главы нашего государства.

А потом отдельные придурки, недоумки, типа министра юстиции Германии говорят, ну вот если он приедет, мы его арестуем. Он же юрист, вроде как. Он понимает, что это значит? Вот представим себе, понятно, что это ситуация, которая не реализуется никогда, да? Но тем не менее, вот представим себе, что она реализовалась. Действующий глава ядерного государства приехал вот на территории допустим германии и подвергся арест что это объявление войны российской федерации и уже в этом случае все наши средства ракетные прочие полетят в бундестаг в офис канцлера и так далее. speaking the language of the Cold War. They understand the idea of power, of negotiating

from a position of power and levers. And they have credible threats that they can use. They mentioned nuclear, and that's something that does tend to get people's attention, and rightly so. But you did notice that there was no comment about us, no comment about anything Joe Biden said, and I think it's notable. We're not relevant at this point, and I think the Russians are very serious about this judge. Well, we might be relevant historically. I mean, if Vladimir Putin is going to be prosecuted for kidnapping children off the streets of bombed out Ukrainian cities, is George W. Bush going to be charged with killing children in Iraq? I think that's the issue.

There may be some truth to the idea that Putin is trying to preserve the Slavs. I think that's the only thing you can do. I mean, what he's saying is probably true. It's like, yeah, I'm trying to save kids. And does he want to make them Russian? Well, maybe. If they can't find the parents, of course they become Russian. But I think the very premise of what they've went after Putin on is insane. It's not,

based on everything else going on in this war, Judge, there's much more serious crimes that could have gone after him for, if you're going to do that. This was to me, almost an insult to the whole process. And Medvedev is correct in pushing back against the whole thing. Do you have any sources on the ground who give you information about where the battle stands? I mean, they've been fighting over Bakhmut for two months now. Right. We had somebody on the ground three weeks ago say it's over, Bakhmut has fallen. But apparently it hasn't fallen yet. And President Zelensky is willing to allow this slaughter to go on

and allow this city to be destroyed. So my sources are different than Doug's, and my team basically said that there's about 10,000 troops that remain trapped inside of Bakhmut, and there's no rush. Basically, the Russians are doing what the Russians do well, which is grind down the enemy. Part of this, I think, remains the Wagner Group. The Wagner Group is still that extra legal organization which essentially responds directly to Putin. And I think they're the ones that they really want to give this victory to. And I think there is some friction between it was just like it was like us. Judge, if people read my book, Operation Dark Heart, there was friction between us, the military operatives, and Blackwater, because Blackwater is the equivalent of Wagner, and we always had conflicts. The CIA was working closely with Eric Prince, and I know Eric and Eric's not going to be happy with me saying this, but Blackwater was always in conflict with

what we were doing on the ground. I can see that being one of the reasons that there's chaos. Eric Prince is the head but Blackwater was always in conflict with what we were doing on the ground. I can see that being one of the reasons that there's chaos. Eric Prince is the head of Blackwater. Was at the time. Yeah. Now they've changed their name twice. They're now, I think, called the Academy or something. But the fundamental idea that you have contractors who report to basically are almost outside of the chain of command, well, they're outside of the chain of command, outside the law, do kind of what they want to do. That leads to all sorts of problems, no matter what country you're doing it for. So I think that may be one of the issues is who's really in charge of trying to win the battle there. Tony Schaefer, always a pleasure, my dear friend. Thank you so much for joining us.

Thank you, Judge. Always great to be on with you. Thank you. There's Colonel Schaefer's book, Operation Dark Heart. Get it at Amazon or wherever you get books. It will keep you awake at night. And of course, if you like what you hear and what you see on Judging Freedom, like and subscribe. More as we get it. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.