Judging Freedom - Rebellion in Russia, Now What? w/Ray McGovern fmr CIA

Episode Date: June 26, 2023

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Thank you. Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, June 26th, 2023. It's about 10 o'clock in the morning here on the East Coast of the United States. Ray McGovern joins us now for his, what is now the opening episode of Judging Freedom every week, Monday Mornings with Ray. All right, this is for a radio show. We might call it Monday Mornings with Ray. Ray, always a pleasure. Welcome back to the show. So everyone wants to know, from the perspective of a career person with the Central Intelligence Agency,

from your perspective, from your extraordinary knowledge of Russian government, culture, and language, what happened over the weekend? There is an arrow in the quiver of intelligence agencies worldwide, Russian and U.S. as well. And that arrow is to play on meligomania, to play on sharp disagreements and sharp disappointments of people who have aspirations for grandeur. That defines preglosion, in my view. He got too big for his pants. He did something really ridiculous without any real expectation of getting the support he needed. He's a little

bit deranged, and don't take my word for it. Just look at some of the videos he's done over the past three weeks. The main question that people ask me is, were Western intelligence services involved? You know, the honest answer is is I don't know, but one of the most circumstantial pieces of evidence that I would adduce is the certain knowledge that the Gang of Eight, that is, the people in the House of Representatives and the Senate and our government were briefed on this on Wednesday. Now, Wednesday. It didn't happen until Friday, right? Okay, right. So let me stop you for just a minute. You're, as usual, so far ahead. So the Gang of Eight is the Congress within the Congress. It's the leadership of the House and

the leadership of the Senate. It's the leadership and minority in both. It's the leadership and minority in both intelligence committees. And the laws require major intel or military events to be revealed to them in secret. They can't tell the rest of Congress and they can't tell their constituents. These are the people, I didn't know this until you just mentioned it, Ray. Great, great get. These are the people who were briefed on Wednesday. Now take it from there. Well, the only thing that I would pick something with what you just said, Judge, is that it's not just events that they need to be briefed on. They need to be briefed on covert action.

Right. Okay. That's by law, as you know better than anyone else. So it doesn't really matter what McGovern knows from watching CNN, of all things, over the weekend and reading Julian Barnes and David Sanger in the New York Times, it doesn't matter that McGovern has been briefed now, that this was briefed to the gang of eight, the recipient by law of any covert action plans. What matters is that Putin knows that too. He's pretty well briefed. And so whether or not there is Western intelligence involvement, and I suspect there is, but suspicions aren't really worth much,

the circumstantial evidence, and I would adduce this one piece of evidence as pretty much, pretty conclusive, that at least Putin and his generals and his advisors are convinced that there was some role played. And we know that Prigozhin has had contacts with Ukrainian intelligence and also U.S. intelligence over the years. Now, whether his contacts with these foreign intelligence services gave him a nihil opstat, you know, sort of a, okay, no problem, go ahead, try it, or not, it's really hard for me to believe, but there's enough in his own personality, and his feeling of having been dissed after all his successes, and they were appreciable successes, appreciated by the Russian people themselves, being dissed and dissolving his Wagner group, right, and having them sign up under his arch-rival foreign defense secretary, Shoigu.

So, you know, it was a blow to him personally. And, you know, people do crazy things when they think they might have a resonance within Russia. He did have that resonance. And I would just add this one thing. There was no Western reporting from Rastafan Dunn. A almost amateur photographer and videographer and reporter who has reported for the last eight years from Donbass, from Donetsk and Lugansk, got in the car, drove to Rostov. What people are rejoicing about? They just got word that there was going to be no bloodshed, that there was a deal, and that Wagner was leaving. Wow. So there was great applause.

There was great enthusiasm for these guys. And the question was, because they liked the fact there was an insurrection? I don't think so. Lancaster says himself that he got there late, okay? He got there after the word was passed. No conflict, no blood. These guys are going back to their base, and the crisis is over. Now, there's a residue.

People were killed, okay? Some 20 helicopter pilots and crew were killed, okay? Some 20 helicopter pilots and crew were killed. And that comes to the fore when people like this fire-eating general in the Duma goes on Solovyov's show and says, we ought to put a bullet right to Pigoshin's head, two bullets maybe, okay. Now, tempering that is Simone Young, the head of RT, who is also on Soloviov. And she says, this was a pretty artful move. Sure. It was treason. And, you know, the laws say this.

But the supreme law is to avoid a civil war. Remember, 10 million people died between 1917 and 1921. In that awful civil war, we avoided that. My hat's off to President Putin. Now, it's no... We have... She would say that. We have some clips from Patrick Lancaster.

Oh, good. We actually have three. We're going to run them back to back to back. I'm going to, for the benefit of our friends that just have this on audio, I'm going to do my best because some of it moves pretty quickly to read the subtitles.

But this will give you a flavor for what Patrick, who sometimes comes on the show, we hope to get him in the next 48 hours. This will give you a flavor for what he saw in the streets. Now, before we get to it, where is this taken? It's in Rostov-on-Don. It's just over the border from Ukraine.

It's the city that the Prigozhin's troops took over peacefully, and that raises the question as to whether there were people inside the military in Rostov that were willing to accept him peacefully and not shoot him up. Got it. Okay, Gary, you can run those

clips. Thank you. we pray for you thank you we are with you how was the result for today what how was the result for today what's next no the result oh the result is normal? We energize them all. Good luck. Take care. Take care. What do you think about the Wagner? They are nice guys.

Really? Yes. We were not afraid at all. We are people of the same blood. What is the situation? Super. Great. Top level.

No problems today? No problem. No problem. situation super great top level no problems today no problem can you tell us you know there is no conflict everything is great we love our president you are just kidding perhaps to just pick us up our president is the best one we love w Wagner and our defense minister. Wagner is the strongest assault group in the world. Was I afraid? No. What is the situation? F-ing great. Really good. What are you going to do now?

Work, work. Really, keep working. Guys, you are great. This is also a victory. No matter who says what, we will win. So by noon, we were terrorists, and in the afternoon, we are great guys. Come on, you know yourself. I think that's pretty telling. The last statement from one of the troops, at noon, we were terrorists. By the end of the day, we were great guys. He could have substituted terrorists for traitors, and he would have made the same point. Yeah, it's really remarkable, isn't it? I would cite the earlier remarks. These people who have

this devotion to Pudygosian, I mean, let's face it, he's got his own PR machine, and that has been very effective in those parts of Russia that are closest to Ukraine. The woman, we are praying for you, we are praying for you. And then the result. What's the result? It's a typical Richard expression. Все нормально. Everything is normal. No problem. That's from Prigozhin, okay? Now, I'm not sure that Prigozhin is long for this world, frankly. Well, I was going to ask you that next. He might find himself

going out of a window from a 10th floor of a building. Well, that could be. Now, Judge, I kind of doubt it, although it's a fear that I have. This deal that was struck with the help of Lukashenko and Belarus, deals are deals, and Putin normally abides by them. I would probably think that Prigozhin has got new orders to go down to Zambia in Africa and lead a detachment of Wagner down there to do whatever Wagner does down in deepest, darkest Africa. You mentioned Prigoziev's angry videos.

We've all seen them. Was he speaking to the Russian people or was he speaking to terrified and impatient Russian troops? Well, I think he was speaking to everyone that would hear him, and that's everyone. Now, he had legitimate grievances. He complained that there was a lack of sufficient ammunition. Whoa, what's that all about? The next day, he had sufficient ammunition. Was the Ministry of Defense, as he charged, shortchanging him on the bullets and the rockets necessary? I believe that probably was the case. Was it to deprive him of a victory in Bakhmut?

No, it was to deprive him from enough wherewithal to go into places like Rostov and cause an insurrection. I mean, 25,000 more Wagner troops. They had the ability to do this, precisely what they tried to do. Everyone was surprised that they actually did it, whether they were encouraged by people on the outside. I suspect they were, but people on the outside are not dumb enough to think this could have succeeded. So they play the game, ah, Putin is now weakened. Now he's weakened. There are chips, there are cleavages, and he'll never, now he'll surely lose in Ukraine. David Sanger today or yesterday in the New York Times, give me a break. They're getting that from the CIA. The CIA wants this thing to continue and holds out this forlorn hope that Ukraine can win.

If CIA and MI6 were behind this, in what form would their support have come? Cash to Prokofiev, who's a billionaire? I think I mentioned before the arrow in the quiver of all intelligence agencies is to play on megalomania and to address people who are profoundly disappointed in the due respect that they have received. I think it's mostly a case of precaution, sort of letting them know, hey, I'm going to do this. I expect some support from inside Moscow, of course. And, you know, what do you think? Now, agents are crawling, Western agents, MI6, CIA, crawling all over Ukraine. God knows what GS-15 says, yeah, we'll give it a try.

Give it a try. And then report it back to headquarters and say, yeah, they're going to try try. I'll give it a try. And then reported back to headquarters and said, they're going to try this. Okay, let's see what happens. The same thing happened when Nguyen Diem, president of Vietnam, was assassinated. Kennedy didn't really know that. These were orders that came ostensibly from the State Department, but went down to the agent and told the Vietnamese guys to shoot.

Does Prokofiev represent or typify Russian populists or right-wing Russian oligarchs unhappy with President Putin's patient management of the war? I think he's a sui generis. I think he's unique. He has this reputation, you know, whether it's deserved or not. I'm not sure he's the military strategist responsible for the appreciable victory in Bakhmut, but he has this reputation and he thought he would play on it. He calculated miserably.

And, you know, it's just, in my view, it's just a sign of how confident Huchin feels in his own position that all he had to do was make a little speech, round up everybody else and say, forget about it. Stop. Tell the people in Rost say, forget about it. Stop. Tell the people in Rostov, I'm done. Don't shoot this guy. We're going to turn him around.

And Lukashenko is just kind of a middleman to make sure this thing works. So it's a big thing. I don't think it weakens Putin at all. I think it strengthens him. And I think this Malcolm Nance, for God's sake. I was watching CNN the last night. My God. It's just really, really.

Even Blinken. What is he saying? There are divides now, you know? Well, you know, the divides have been kind of closed. It was a fool's errand to begin with. And Putin showed his strength and the unanimous support of all the people who really count. Here's the CIA's man in the State Department, Tony Blinken, yesterday. We've seen this aggression against Ukraine become a strategic failure across the board.

Russia is weaker economically, militarily. Its standing around the world has plummeted. It's managed to get Europeans off of Russian energy. It's managed to unite and strengthen NATO with new members and a stronger alliance. It's managed to alienate from Russia and unite together Ukraine in ways that it's never been before. This is just an added chapter to a very, very bad book that Putin has written for Russia. Is any of that true? Well, you know, I can't believe he keeps saying these things because they're going to be disproven within weeks. He said the same thing on Face the Nation

to Margaret Brennan, you know, There are now cracks, real cracks. Well, that's crackpot. There was a small sliver of a, you know, a little crack here, and it was put down, and now it's been closed and signed, sealed, and delivered by all the people who matter in Russia, and Putin is enjoying this appreciable support. I mentioned Simonyan, Maria Simonyan, who heads up RT, but is also on Solovyov's prime talk show, okay?

What she said just 10 hours ago was, look, this is a masterstroke. This was no bloodshed. Now, that's not completely true, right? The other side says, well, there was bloodshed. There were 20, 22 helicopter pilots that were shot down. The Ministry of Defense is not going to put up with that. Well, I say the Ministry of Defense answers to Shoigu. Shoigu is prepared to put up with that for the larger good of tamping this thing down and avoiding a civil war. I think that he's going to make that stick on behalf of Putin.

I don't see any cracks, except among the crackpots like Blinken and like Malcolm Nance, who is so frequently on CNN. I have the book on him, but I won't go into it. Contrary to Secretary of State Blinken, you said that this event or these events over the weekend have strengthened Putin. How has he strengthened? And with whom has he strengthened? Is his government more stable? Is he personally more popular? Are the troops more patient and loyal?

Please address that. Sure. Well, there are two things. One is that his reaction, his typically circumspect and well-planned reaction. Stage one, warn these guys, you're committing treason and mutiny. And then sending his lieutenants out to Rostov and saying, look, don't shoot this guy up. He's gone bonkers.

Let's make sure we don't shed a lot of unnecessary blood. So I think that betokens a confident Poochie that can make these orders, make them stick, and work out a deal. Now, how it works out in the medium or longer term, there's an argument that can say, well, you know, he looks a little weak. He only looked weak until he resolved the damn thing. And typically he resolved it in a very thoughtful way. And I go with what Simon Jan said.

He himself invoked the example of the Civil War in Russia 1917-1921. That was a bloodbath. They don't want that. They don't want anything like that. That's why they resolved it the way they did.

This is the 60th anniversary of one of the most famous speeches in American history. Almost forgotten because the speaker was assassinated five months later and because his inaugural address was so profound. But what was the message that JFK gave to the Russians in 1963 and to the American intelligence community at the same time? I remember well, I had joined the CIA just two months before. He spoke at American University and he shocked everyone. After the Cuban Missile Crisis, the previous September, we're talking June 1963, he said, look, we ought to figure out how to get along without a nuclear holocaust. And for that, we have to change our method of thinking. We all inhabit the same earth.

We all hope for the same things for our children. We need to get along, okay? The thing we need to avoid is to demonize the other side, but rather to consider them humans. And the worst thing we would do would be to give another nuclear power a painful choice between having to use nuclear weapons or to retreat. He had just been through that. He had forced Khrushchev to retreat. He didn't want to have to do that again, okay? That's where we are in Ukraine, folks. We are about to face, the Russians are about to face a choice, okay? If we escalate any farther when Ukraine forces are completely decimated, then there will be a choice that will be forced on President Biden.

You know, will he escalate to include nuclear weapons? You don't drive a situation to the point where the choices between what JFK called a humiliating retreat, and for Biden that would be a political political retreat or coming to a sensible result. So it was also relevant. I came down to Washington because of what JFK said in my senior year, do something for your country. You know, I was pretty much devoted to the same ideals he was. And when I saw that the people on the other side of the turnstile in that blindly building where I used to work, when I realized that there was a nest of assassins in there, it was more than I could bear. And it wasn't until about 10 years ago that it came to

the realization that he was killed, as Bobby Kennedy Jr. has said, by a deep state combination of the CIA, FBI, and other security services. Ray, God bless you for your intellect and your courage and for your regular appearances here on Monday morning. What a pleasure. Thank you very much. My pleasure, Judge. Lieutenant Colonel Tony Schaefer at 11 o'clock this morning. Colonel Douglas McGregor at 245 this afternoon, both times Eastern. More as we get it. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thanks for watching!