Judging Freedom - Russia & NOKO Get Tighter, Ukraine Denies Failures w/Tony Shaffer fmr DoD

Episode Date: September 13, 2023

Russia & NOKO Get Tighter, Ukraine Denies Failures w/Tony Shaffer fmr DoDSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Tuesday, September 12th, 2023. Lieutenant Colonel Tony Schaefer joins us now. Tony, thank you very much for joining us again. Always good to be here. What do you make of the wisdom or potential danger for the U.S. and U.K. and various other countries with smaller navies engaging in war games in the Black Sea. I mean, is that trying to provoke the bear? No doubt. I mean, there's certain cultural and regional, I don't want to say traditions,

it's not the right word. There's just basic taboos, if you will, that militaries generally follow to not have the perception that you're trying to provoke someone. You can be very antagonistic by running your Navy around areas which a country believes is theirs. I mean, look, I don't believe for a minute the Russians would be running a series of exercises just off Miami or down by Key West. It just would not go over well. I'm pretty sure, Judge, the U.S. Navy would have a problem with five Russian cruisers cruising around, you know, ogling the girls on the beach in Key West. I just don't think it would work. So you start doing that in Black Sea, yeah, I think you're going to raise the ire of those who have traditionally had dominance within the region. And the only reason you would do that is to basically to antagonize someone. I do believe that.

In terms of chain of command, Tony, how high up would an exercise like this have to be approved and how expensive would it be? We're talking about the president or we're talking about the chief of naval operations, somebody had to approve sending all this personnel and heavy equipment there. The CNO would have to approve it and the chairman of the joint chiefs would have to essentially direct it and that would be brief to the White House. Would President Biden know? Probably not. Jake Sullivan would most certainly know the White House. Would President Biden know? Probably not. Jake Sullivan would most certainly know. This is something that you would not necessarily bring to a president, but you would have the staff advised because naturally people like us are going to talk about it and there'll be things reported about it. So this is why the White House

is aware. Now, things like this are usually planned well in advance. There's a number of working groups, both at EUCOM. This is going to be done under the auspices of the European Command. That means it was done as a function of EUCOM and NATO. Nothing happens in EUCOM without NATO being at least briefed or vice versa. So this was fully sanctioned, at least briefed to all European leaders as well. So there's a lot of folks who were briefed in advance on this. Anybody who was any NATO nation who participates in activities in Belgium in the headquarters was aware of this.

And when they say war games, what does that mean? Does somebody play the adversary? There's two categories of war games. There's an FTX, which is basically a tabletop exercise. Basically, you really don't get into doing anything. It's all like you pick up the phone and call and you pretend. It's a game of pretend. Actual military exercises, like we're talking about, is where you put ships in the water. You have airplanes, which can be either armed with actual or inert weapons. And you pretend that someone's a bad guy. Generally speaking, you try not to use red or blue. You

try to use red or blue or orange. You don't want to offend people, but then you can do actual exercises over a period of time. These things generally run a week to 10 days and you do everything you would otherwise do in combat over that time. And generally you have referees, raiders, and things like that, trying to evaluate how effective your response is to certain military inputs that are given to you by the exercise controllers. Would the Navy have live rounds in their big guns aboard their ships when they're doing this? The answer is, it depends. There are live fire exercises, Judge, where you will have essentially a full simulated exchange of fire. You will not fire on other ships with live ammunition.

You will simulate that. But you still can do live fire exercises against drones or other inert targets to try to test the readiness and capability to try to test the readiness and capability to respond to something. So the answer is I don't know what they're doing in this case. Okay. So you probably know what I'm driving at. I mean, in the Black Sea where there are many ports and where the Turks are very happy to receive all the grain they can because they're the king of the hill when it comes to turning grain into flour. Ukrainian ships are going to try and get through with grain and Russian ships are going to try and stop them. What is the U.S. Navy going to do? Sit back and watch?

Well, again, it depends on the policy. Right now, the policy is to avoid direct confrontation between the two navies. Russia has been far more aggressive going after our ships than theirs. I mean, they've done flyovers. And I know Doug's not going to like Doug. Doug McGregor's not going to like this. But yes, the Russians behave very aggressively around us. And they've done very aggressive things, very dangerous things like taking down drones. I mean, that's not that dangerous, but it's very provocative. So we are back to kind of a Cold War gamesmanship. With that said, Biden does not want to see an escalation that he can't control. He wants to be he wants to have his cake and eat it, too, Judge. That is Biden. He wants to have sufficient military

stress and friction that he can say, look, I'm a wartime president. Look at me. At the same time, he doesn't want to get out of control where it goes down an avenue he can't control like nuclear weapons or all out firefights between ships in the ocean. So that's why I think the Biden administration's playing this very close to the chest, but they're trying very hard to not have a direct confrontation, which would require actual gunfire between ships in the water. Well, then why do they have ships there with live rounds if they don't want direct confrontation? Well, there may, because the Navy's probably been told. Is the Black Sea a Russian lake or is the middle of it international waters, Tony?

Well, technically it's international waters, but it's one of those, it's like I said, it's like being off the territory of waters in the United States. You know, the Russians aren't going to hang around. All right. Colonel McGregor reports from sources that he believes are credible, and therefore what he's saying is credible, that the Ukrainians have lost 450,000 human beings, about 387,000 troops, and the rest volunteers, I say in air quotes, and even foreign mercenaries. one of which is the documents that were released supposedly by the young guardsmen in Cape Cod, that the kill ratio was 7 to 1. Okay.

If the Ukrainians have lost 450,000 and the kill ratio was 7 to 1, the Russians have lost maybe 50 or 60. How can the Ukrainians survive this? Well, they can't. I mean, my estimate is 60,000 casualties by the Russians. I think that's accurate. I cannot even begin to, I don't have direct sources like those guys do, and I have to go with them. But I suspect it's well over 100,000. I think Doug is probably very close to accurate because Zelensky himself, Judge, is now talking about another call up. And I've seen accounts, read accounts, where you're finding senior citizens on the battlefield. And look, I'm nearly turning 61

next month and I'd be happy to go serve. You don't look at or act it, but Ritter reports 16-year-olds and 60-year-olds. Right, exactly. And I can tell you that that's not a sign of a healthy army. Look, I've said this before on the show. I've gotten in trouble, I think, by saying it. This is what happened right before Nazi Germany fell. They were down to calling up senior citizens, old people, and young kids. And if Zelensky's going in that direction, they've got nothing left. And I think this is Putin's strategy. I keep saying this.

It's a numbers game at this point, Judge. It has nothing to do how anybody feels. It doesn't matter how anybody feels. You can feel good or bad. The bottom line is the Russians have been able to use attrition to a great strategic effect to diminish both the technology benefits of the technology we've given them. They've been able to basically kind of outfox them and at the same time let them use their combat power uselessly against layer defenses, which has resulted in essentially nothing left for the offensive to be used to prevail. And by the way, in about two weeks, three weeks, you're going to have rainy season. So when rainy season arrives, it's going to be just like Burning Man without the hot chicks and tanks. All right. You're talking about layer defenses. We all know what that is. Do you

believe the nonsense in the Wall Street Journal, the only Western media that reports it, but they report it regularly, consistently and systematically? I say this, I'm going to have friends there. You have friends there, but they keep reporting it. That the first of the three layer defense has been breached by the Ukrainians. There's no evidence of that. There's just absolutely, if there was evidence of that, guess what would be going on, Judge? They'd be like out there with cameras showing it. It's like,

hey, look at this big hole. Look at what we did. They're not doing it. Right. All right. Here is President Zelensky over the weekend saying basically that the Ukrainian front lines are moving eastward. I want you to listen to this,

Tony, with your trained ear and tell me if you I want you to listen to this, Tony, with your trained ear and tell me if you think there's any truth in this, if this is intended to enhance military morale or if this is just for public Ukrainian political consumption. Fellow Ukrainians, at the end of this week, it is important to say a few things. First of all, the front line. Over the past seven days, we have advanced. There is movement in the Tavria directions. There is movement in the Bakhmut direction. Kupyansk and Lyman directions, Avdivka and Mariinka, we are holding our ground there. I am grateful to all the warriors who make this possible. Every week, our warriors

continuously keep the initiative in the hands of Ukraine. It is Ukrainian heroism that determines how this war will end. Now, when he says that, does anybody in Brussels or Whitehall or the West Wing take that with credibility? No. Look, how many times have they reported having seized and continued to maintain control of villages? Come on, Judge. We're three going on four months into the offensive. And what do they have to show for it? They have literally been able to secure no village. They've not been able to secure more than a handful of kilometers on the outer edge of the third layer of the Russian layer defenses. So I just don't know what he's

saying. I think maybe he's saying that for purposes of morale, but anybody who takes that to the bank will be essentially going home with no money because there's no evidence of what he's saying is actually factually sustainable or accurate. Here's General Milley. I believe he's standing next to his British counterpart. The other gentleman doesn't say anything, and I'm not sure it's an American uniform. You'll know. Saying almost the same thing.

We don't know which way it's going, but we see some movement and we're optimistic. Yeah. Ukrainians have achieved very steady progress and they've maintained a depth of combat power that is significant. And there's still a reasonable amount of time, probably about 30 to 45 days worth of fighting weather left. So the Ukrainians aren't done. This battle is not done and they haven't achieved they haven't finished the fighting part of what they're trying to accomplish. So we'll see. It's too early to say how this is going to end.

They at least have achieved partial success in what they set out to do. And then we'll get the cold, as you mentioned. It'll start, the rains will come in. It'll become very muddy and it'll be very difficult to maneuver at that point. And then you'll get the deep winter. And then at that point, we'll see where things go. But right now, it is way too early to say that this offensive is failed or not failed. There's still heavy fighting going on. The Ukrainians are still plugging away with steady progress through the various defensive belts that the Russians have

put in place. So, Matt So that cannot be true. We could not have said that under oath. Steady progress to the various defensive belts. We know what those three belts are. Right. So, Judge, this is just more evidence that the Department of Defense, and by the way, the Defense Intelligence agency had one of their analysts do a interview with one of the british papers uh and this the senior di analyst said there was a he said there was significant evidence of potential uh favorable outcome because they may there may be a 40 to 50 chance that by the fall by november december by by winter the the Ukrainians will prevail. It's like it's constant projection and aspirational thinking. It's all vaporware, to use a term we used to use when we saw people coming with information that had no substance. It's all vaporware at this point.

And there's no evidence. Judge, take my word for this. If any of this was true, you would have reporters out there running this 24-7 on CNN showing the progress. There's no such thing going on. The Daily Caller and The Economist each have some interesting reports this morning the daily caller reports that ukrainian central bankers some of whom were fired by zielinski acknowledge bribery and graft and of course they claim that the biggest grafter there is zielinski himself yeah and the economist may be the most widely read and credible uh our friends at the Financial Times don't want to hear this, international reporter, they call themselves a newspaper, but to us they're a magazine, reports about UK assassinations of dissidents by the SBU. Maybe start with that one.

SBU is the Ukrainian Intelligence Security Services. They're Mossad. Yeah, they're like the KGB. Yeah, they're their version of the KGB. So they do. Are they assassinating Ukrainian dissidents, as The Economist claims? Let me let me put it this way. And I've said this over and over. Russia, the Russians and Ukrainians are cut from the same Soviet cloth, the same bolt of cloth that both nations are cut out of. So they have oligarchs on both sides. They use the same basic philosophy and techniques. And yes, I believe that Zelensky and the SFB or whatever their services would do the exact same things as Putin does. Putin assassinates people, their FSB assassinates people, I'm sure the Ukrainian does too. So I would always go with two sources, but I would say that the facts are very likely correct in this, that there's probably

assassinations of folks going on. The Russians do it, and I'm sure the Ukrainians do it. Is Zelensky himself involved in the type of graft for which Ukraine has this awful reputation? Well, according to Cy Hersh, and I believe Cy, I think, yeah, I think he is. I think, look, you don't get to be the king of the oligarchs and all the nonsense if you don't partake in that. It's like, do you really think, let's just use an example, Hugh Hefner. Do you think Hugh Hefner was a priest at the Playboy Mansion when he was running around with all those Playboy girls? I don't think so. So if you've got a guy in the middle of corruption,

do you think he's not corrupt? There's no doubt in my mind that Zelensky is in the middle of all that stuff that's going on. And yet your friends in the intelligence community, particularly the CIA, as well as our friends, I say that in quotes in Congress, are effectively financing the Ukraine government, paying their bills, paying for health care for Ukrainian veterans, for wounded troops, and financing the corruption, and doing so knowingly. Tony Blinken pledged another $1 billion. Of that $300 million goes to internal security and police. Now, Judge, last time I checked, we have a border problem that we don't have fixed.

The people of Maui are getting $700 per person. I think Doug did the, was it? Oh no, my friend Blaine Holt, General Holt, you've probably seen him because you've played a clip of him once. Blaine estimated that each, that we are paying per Ukrainian citizen in that tranche, $3,700. So people of Maui get $700. Yet if you add it all up, we are paying per Ukrainian person $3,700 for whatever they're doing. How is that even logical within the context of what our people need versus the fact that I don't think there's going to be any positive outcome for what we're funding regarding the war? You and I have a lot of friends in the Congress, particularly on the Republican side. And man, they are silent when it comes to. I know. I don't get it. Oh, by another twenty eight billion. I just can't see a Republican House of Representatives

giving him that. Can you? No, I don't. And again, you've got people who are going to be very vocal about this. But the problem is this. Even some of the friends that we have still get certain money from certain organizations that it's hard to say no to. And that's going to be spent in Washington supporting defense industry. So it's hard. It's I, I, it's not hard for me. I don't, I'm not on a tape. We don't get any money. My think tank, we don't, I don't get any money from those folks. I'm just saying some of those folks. And by the way, big think tanks, the Institute of War, Heritage, they all get money from those folks. So, you know. Well, were you surprised?

Last question, because I have to run. Yeah. When Putin said last night that the Soviet invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia were wrong. Well, I think Putin was a child when that happened. I think he was someone who really did want good relations with the West. Did he have concerns and want to bring back the Soviet empire as it was during his time in KGB? I think so. But he wanted to do it in such a way that he actually was telling people what he was going to do. So yeah, I think kind of looking back and figuring out that maybe that,

that wasn't the best move is a good thing. He's, he's kindler and gentler. It's perfect. Every time I hear people like Victoria Newland and who are these knuckleheads, Jake Sullivan, Jennifer Rubin, all call for his removal. You don't understand. He's a moderate compared to the folks who take his place. Correct. I'm in sync. Yeah, a lot of Russians don't like to be too timid. I'm just telling you, be careful what you wish for because his replacement is not going to be the good, you know, Putin's not a good guy, but I'm saying the replacement would be an order of magnitude worse. So Tony Schaefer, always a pleasure. Thank you,

my friend. Thank you, Judge. Good to be here. Thanks. Thank you for watching. We'll be back at four o'clock, excuse me, at three thirty Eastern with Larry Johnson. I'm about to jump on to Newsmax right now. We'll see you shortly. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.