Judging Freedom - Russia trying to wear us down, But it’s wearing itself down

Episode Date: December 7, 2022

Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here with Judging Freedom. Today is Wednesday, December 7th, 2022. It's about 10 after 3 in the afternoon here on the East Coast of the United States. My next guest is someone that many of you like to write strong things about, Jack Devine, of course. I'm being charitable, Jack. Excuse me. Jack Devine, of course, comes to us after a career in the Central Intelligence Agency on both sides of the Atlantic. Jack, welcome back to the show. Do you still believe that Russia is trying to wear NATO down, but NATO is wearing Russia down?

Yeah, I'm actually relatively, I have to be careful, relatively optimistic about how things are going. I noticed two days ago that the director of intelligence, that's the czar of intelligence overriding CIA and other intelligence agencies, came out with a public statement saying that the situation for the Russians, it looks like she's pessimistic that they're going to be able to bounce back and that in the days ahead, we should anticipate some further enhancement of the Ukrainian position, which is quite interesting. She also said one final thing, which is Putin is finally getting on the ground truth about what's taking place, which is really fascinating. We should talk about that. Not necessarily this second, but we should talk about it because there is a

difference between their approach and ours. Is she telling the truth, Jack? Because let's face it, the CIA steals secrets, keeps secrets, and lies about them. That's the coin of the realm. That's not true, Judge. We collect secrets. What's with the lying part? Let me tell you, when you walk through the door, I don't care what anybody says. There's a quote from the New Testament there, and it's etched in marble. And it says, you shall know the truth, and it will set you free. The founding fathers and generations, including mine, take that very seriously. That's the job. We're not there to promote opinions. We're not there to promote the Republican or Democratic. We're there to

play it out the way it is. But you get ahead by telling the bosses what they want to hear. So whoever's advising Joe Biden is telling him what he wants to hear. Yeah, that's not true either, Judge. Let me give you two really good examples from my personal career in the agency. I was head of the Counter-Narcotics Center. Please do. When Pablo Escobar met his demise. Now, your audience won't know this, but the Counter-Narcotics Center is made up of operators, you know, spy masters, analysts, technical people, and people from the community. And we had to do an estimate.

What was happening in the drug trade every year. And there was an intelligence community report, and we disagreed with it. But because it was a community report, it went forward. We dissented. And the director of CIA signed off on our dissent. That was Bill Casey. And when I would correct analysts, I'm a nitpicker about the use of the English language and wordsmithing. When I would edit some of the analysts, they would get annoyed, it was politicization. I said, wait, I'm only putting a semicolon where it belongs.

So there is great pride in independence of thinking. Now I'm a little concerned about modern times. There's things going on that are not consistent with my understanding of the group I grew up with. So what's going on? What's going on? If an analyst came to me and tried to spin something, I'd throw him out of the office. It's the only product.

You don't have a product. You're not selling anything else. People don't get it. What's going on with respect to intel from Ukraine that you're not happy with? Well, I don't see it. I'll be unhappy about that. I don't think you need to read all the reports to see very clearly what's going on. I mean, the Russians occupied the east and they've been

pushed out. They've gone and pulled into a hole. They're trying to modernize their army. They didn't realize they had a World War II army on the ground and 21st century missiles for the air. They're bombing the hell out of the country because they're on the back of their heels. They have nothing else. Even their infrastructure, cyber, should have taken this stuff out. Now they have to just bomb everything to oblivion. So there are 29 hills. It was a terrible, it was

a shameful performance by the Russian military. And their intelligence assessment, and this is what Avril Haines was saying, she was saying Putin, and I'm assuming she knows this on good sourcing information, he's just now getting to realize the obstacles they were up against in the intelligence. That's the difference between the democratic American system and the autocratic one. What you're describing is what takes place when you have dictators. The biggest fights in the intelligence community about intelligence is the quality and accuracy

of the information. They're really professional people. They're not politicians. One last thing, and I think I've mentioned to your audience before. I didn't know the political affiliation of 99% of the people around me. You didn't talk politics. You didn't know the political affiliation of 99% of the people around me. You didn't talk politics. You didn't bring it into your product. Now, today I'm saying there's too much politics by directors, and they should be out of this game. They shouldn't even bother talking.

So my point is there is a difference between their system and ours, and ours, there is integrity information, and no matter what your audience feel about what I'm saying, that's a truth and I'll stand by it. Find somebody that can prove otherwise. The CIA is obviously present in Ukraine. It's obviously providing intel to Ukrainian intel or Ukraine military intel about Russia. Is the CIA in Ukraine also spying on the Ukrainians?

Well, first, I do not know firsthand, right? I hope they're there. It feels like they're there. They're doing a hell of a job. Who's ever there? In other words, how did the Russians not succeed with their cyber attack? Why did the Ukrainians move their service out of the country? Why did they decentralize it? Why were they so effective in all of their counter-punching with them? And I would say- Let me stop you, Jack.

There's a reason I asked you about the CIA spying on the Ukrainians. So I'll get to the bottom of it. Is it more likely than not that the White House or NATO was aware that Ukraine was using drones to strike within 150 miles of Moscow before it happened? Knew about it, approved of it, or looked the other way? I don't know the answer to that. I would say this, what I was going to say a minute ago. The Ukrainians are much more sophisticated than people are given credit for. They know how to do things. And what I was going to say is when Russia invaded in 2014, the Ukrainians have been working on this war and planning for it and getting ready for it and how to deal with it. So I think they didn't need

prodding on this and they didn't need help. But if you're bombing their cities the way they are and their brutalization, if you're a general and you're sitting there saying, we got to give them a little bit of their own medicine, I don't think you need the CIA there. I'm not saying they're not there. I'm not saying they're provided. I'm saying they don't need them. And it's a natural outflow of what the Russians are doing. Where are they going to sit there when they have the capability to burn some of their facilities? Do your friends and colleagues in the intel community in NATO think that Putin will be weakened by this war and maybe pushed out of office? Forget them.

I've written to it in March, and I continue to say that. I think that diet was cast the day he walked across the border. They gave him shrinking pills. He became a miniature leader. The bully aspect's gone. The guy gets beat up the way he's getting beat up. Who's he going to scare? I think it's, you know, and I read it. I'm sticking by it that you don't come back from this. How long is he going to protract it? But we should not fiddle inside his country trying to speed the process. He will take care of it, and his people will, because it will backfire if we get involved.

Is his military stronger and wiser now than it was a year ago? Do they now know that they need to modernize from their World War II era equipment and ways of thinking? Well, what I said earlier is Hayne's official US government statement says that she's got doubts that they're gonna be able to do that. That means the current reporting would show that that's not happening.

But look at it you just don't you don't get 180 people and certainly turn them into Warriors I mean you got to train them they got to want to fight you know you don't have you don't have the material he's running out of shells he can't he's burning them just that's the only thing he can do is fire shells so I I'm I think with the the spring comes I'm not expecting him to march across the plains in the cab. Good luck. Good luck. You know, this isn't the first time.

My other experts on this, Colonel Doug McGregor and Scott Ritter, and we're going to tape a segment with Scott as soon as we finish with you. Tell such a diametrically different story that the Ukrainians are on their heels, that Putin's 300,000 reservists are now trained, equipped, and ready to move into the theater of combat. And it's only a matter of time. Let me finish. I'm summarizing what they're saying... I'm summarizing what they're saying and then I'll let you deal with it. And it's only a matter of time before Kiev is surrounded. Go.

All I'm telling you is the official statement of two days ago. That's not what the CIA... And if you're spending all that money and they got this wrong, then we need to have a chat about it. I know Scott, and please pass on my regards. That doesn't mean because I know him and like him that I agree with him. I see no indication of that.

I see nothing that would support that. You get pushed out, they have to retreat out of Khorasan. They're getting hammered. They got hammered. They can retreat. Where do you see this fantastic army showing up? Where? Where? What will happen to the government when the governed have no heat, water, or electricity during a bitter Eastern European winter?

This comes back to my point. People are grossly underestimating the toughness of Ukrainians. When I was in the Afghan program, people underestimated. The Russian analyst in CIA thought Russia was 10 feet tall. People underestimate the grit and pain that people will put themselves through. After you kill family members, cold weather is not going to blind you from fighting the Russians. You don't go into a country and you think you're going to take it over when the people are prepared to die to the first person. That was their number one intelligence failure in the invasion. They really didn't know, despite all the years, who they were fighting. They really didn't get it. And their intelligence reports, some of them had

their parade uniforms packed with them. Some of them had hotel reservations. They thought this was a cakewalk. How terrible does intelligence have to get? All right. Well, we'll see where this goes, my dear friend. What's your prediction for the spring? Putin goes home? No, I think, again, this is where we get overly optimistic. And I don't want, you know, I'm saying he's going. What I didn't say is he's going to go April 15th or the eyes of March. He's not going to go, might not go then.

But he could go tomorrow. But I'm thinking that it's a lot. What has to happen, I think, is we get through the winter and the Russian people look around and say, here we go again. You know, our economy and the troops are going. I don't feel like going over there. I don't feel like dying. Have you seen the footage of some of the planes being shot down? I mean, some of the helicopters, rather.

And they're going in and they don't want to fight. They did the same thing in Afghan. The Russian soldiers did not want to fight in Afghan. They had tremendous defection. You can't win a war. It's very hard to win a war when one side wants to fight and save their country and the other one really doesn't feel like getting involved. So he has a sales job. So I think the trouble really begins for him when he starts to come back. And I think the Russian people are going to start saying, well, here, this is, this is Putin's folly. We'll end on that.

Everyone's going to walk away. All right. We'll end on that. Jack Devine, always a pleasure, my dear friend. If we don't speak in the next couple of weeks, a Merry Christmas to you. Did we fire up the audience? That's the important thing. Yes, you did. I'm reading emails. Your reputation has not changed with my audience, Jack.

But I still love you as a friend. Thank you for joining us. Putin's folly. I'm going to use that phrase when I talk to Scott Ritter in a few minutes and Doug McGregor tomorrow. But, Jack, it's always a pleasure. Thank you. Tell them to lay off the martinis. That's what I'm going to tell them.

Don't do analysis. You're one of a kind, Mr. Central Intelligence Agency. Judge Napolitano for judging. Mr. American. Mr. American. That's what I want to be, Mr. Central Intelligence Agency. Judge Napolitano for judging. Mr. American. Mr. American. That's what I want to be. Mr. American. Okay.

All the best, Judge. Thank you. Thank you, Jack. Bye.