Judging Freedom - Sanctions, Tanks & the Ukraine Russia War

Episode Date: January 30, 2023

Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, January 30th, 2023. It's about 3.15 or 3.20 in the afternoon here on the east coast of the United States. Jack Devine, Career Central Intelligence Agency, joins us now so that we have the opportunity to pick his brain and hear a side of the conflagration between Russia and Ukraine that we might not always hear. Jack, it's always a pleasure. I'm smiling because a lot of your fans, those who love to express strong opinions about

you, have already lined up and they're expressing those opinions. How significant is it that after arm twisting, Germany has agreed to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, and the United States has agreed to send Abrams and Bradley tanks. From a military perspective, I know you're an intel guy, but from a military respect, or even from an intelligence perspective, or even just from Jack Devine's perspective, how significant are these agreements to send tanks? And why the arm twisting, the public arm twisting and hand wringing by the Chancellor of Germany? Yeah. But if we just go back a year or two and how we thought about Europe and how committed they were or not to NATO and our relationship with them, now we're talking about together putting tanks in, that's big. Now, that's not big for just the war in Ukraine.

It's about the nature of the relationship as it faces the threat with Russia. So I think it's a big deal. It's not so many tanks that are going to come actually from Germany. I think the last number I saw was something like 14. That's not going to turn the tide of war. But the Poles, there's a number of countries that have them, but because of the agreement, they have to have Germany to sign up. So maybe you'll get the 200 tanks.

And some people say, well, what's 200 tanks? Well, the other side of 200 Leopard tanks, you want to run as fast as you can. Or April. The only thing, in fairness, the only thing I want to say to the people that might criticize it is my concern is how fast are we going to get there? How quickly can you train people? Because March, April isn't far away. And if there's going to be a push, you know, you need to have your best in place. And I know I have a lot of friends that are critical of the timeline, and I've got mixed feelings, which I can elaborate on.

All right. Admiral Kirby, who's the spokesperson for the Department of Defense, speaking from the White House because he was following President Biden's comments from another room in the White House announcing the agreement to send the tanks said the following about how long it would be before they get there. Take a listen, Jack. And given the process, what's the soonest the Abrams could get there? The Pentagon, I think, talked about this earlier today. There's no date certain on the calendar. I think what we're looking at is what's probably going to be many months before they're actually there. Thank you. Many months. I mean, will the war still be going

on in many months? Will the Ukraine's backs be to the wall in many months? According to General Zeluzny, the commander in chief of the Ukraine military, he wants 500 tanks and he wants them before the winter is over. Yeah. Well, I wish he hadn't used the word many. I mean, that covers a lot of sins. I guess that's more than three. What is many? But I think there's normal time and accelerated time when you're dealing with our military. I've been impressed how fast they can do things when they put the pedal to the floor. And I would double that with the agency

because it doesn't have to go through the same, what I call it, administrative paperwork. And again, there's reasons why the Defense Department has to do it. But the agency, one of its traits was the speed with which it could make things move. But it's not just getting them on a plane. When you say the agency, has to do it. But the agency, one of its traits was the speed with which it could make things move. But it's not just getting them on a plane. When you say the agency, you mean the CIA. Yeah, well, yeah.

To me, that's the agency, but I respect all the others. Okay, understood, understood. So, Colonel... My point is, they could probably get 10 of them on a ship or plane and get them there in a hurry. But, I mean, again, are they going to send 12, 100, what the numbers are? But then you have the training and the preparation. So time is our enemy on this one. And if we knew when we entered into war, the timelines, I think we'd all behave

differently. And if I could just give you a small bit yet on my experience on the Afghan war that drive the Russians out, you know, it wasn't as if we got there and suddenly put everything in and they left. I mean, it took years to build up to the capabilities, but it was clandestine effort, not clandestine. Let me correct that. Covert effort. There's a difference. So my point is, it takes time to get these things in place. If they want to get them into place, they can get a limited number of them there. When I say wanted to, it's, you know, you do the Herculean. I think this situation calls for it. I think they should rescind the phrase many months.

I think we're going to get them there as fast as we can. But that's not the end of the story. I mean, you really have to get people trained. But the fact that the Germans were willing to do it is big. That they wanted to send, if I were in German shoes, I'd say the same thing. What about you? I mean, that's- Yeah. So Colonel- You should have expected that and had the answer yes, and we did. Colonel Doug McGregor, who's one of our military experts and who's west point

and spent his career uh as a tank commander says that these tanks don't exist that they have to be built and that's really what's going to take so long not the administrative paperwork but the time it takes to build them and then he agrees with you on the training necessary to maintain them. And that training, I guess, will take place either in Ukraine or in Poland. So we're not talking about a change in dynamics tomorrow or next month or even maybe before the spring. Not at all. Let me tell you what happened to me when I went to the general in charge of all logistics for the United States Army. I went to ask for Stingers.

He said, Jack, you look like a nice guy. Well, he didn't say that. He really didn't. That's not true. He said, okay, you're here on an official purpose and I'm glad you came, but you're not getting any Stingers. I said, well, why is that? He said, well, they're coming off the line,

and they have to go to the boys in the front. And I said, well, that I understand. But we haven't had a war going in Afghanistan, and it's the only place where people are pushing back on the Russians. I think we really need them, and that's where we need to get them. Well, thank you for your visit. Show me the door. Did you get them?

I called the White House. This is the second part of the story. He said, Jack, go back tomorrow. So I went back tomorrow, and I could see little blood coming out of the corner of his mouth from biting his tongue. He said, how many do you need? I said, X. He said, X? Okay. So my point is, there's a way, if I were in his shoes, I would have said the same thing. There was nothing wrong with his answer whatsoever. But I had a different role. And I would say that to the people that are sitting there with the tanks, say, hey, listen, we need these, we got this, we have tanks. Get those goddamn tanks over there and get the best tanks you have, right? Don't worry about building them.

Get moving on it. We can deliver tanks. The United States Army has tanks and good ones. So I understand he's an expert. I get it. I'm sure they have to be built. I'm just telling you my experience has been once the will is there, it's amazing what the U.S. military can do. All right, let me run this clip from Stefano Sanino,

who's a senior official of the European Union, giving an opinion of the EU on the nature of the conflict in Ukraine. Is it between Ukraine and Russia, or is it between Russia and the West? Take a listen, Jack. Putin has moved from the concept of special operation to a concept now of a war against NATO and the West. So we are not speaking anymore about special operation to free up a country from a Nazi leadership. Now we are speaking about the war with NATO and with the West. Different story. You want this to be a war with NATO and the West, don't you?

Never. I am a peace-neeker heart. Nobody watching you is going to believe that. You represent a culture that wants to use this war to drive Putin from office, right? Absolutely not. But let me tell you where I come from. Peace on earth to all. Okay, let's start with that. But when someone punches your friend in the face, your ally, right? Unprovoked. I mean, you can come up and take all the BS that Putin wants to throw out there. It just doesn't stick. So my point is, he wanted him to go into Ukraine. Why? He wants to make his country that much more powerful. Why? Because he wants to be in a more competitive

position against us. He's not interested in detente. That's the big lesson of the last two years. I've been arguing for, let's try and get an arrangement with him. And what I realized is he has bigger ambitions. Now, I don't think he's stupid enough, although I've now dropped my IQ score on him. I had him up higher than I wished. But for him to invade Germany or Poland, he's asking to bite off a lot. But he can chew up a lot of the neighbors. But can he take Ukraine and move that into Russia? Imagine the fighting force that the Ukrainians have now if that's on the Russian side. So, you know, I think the Ukrainians were helping them.

We didn't have an identity with the Afghans, but when the Russians invaded, we went in because it was part of a bigger story. But let me come to your really big point, because I'm trying to convince people of something, and I'm trying to get pen to paper, but I don't think people want to listen to me, except your audience that loves me. So the point is this, he started it, but we should see that there's an opportunity in it. Where do we get peace and stability in our age, in our time? By having a more powerful Russia and China united together and all of those countries that think they may have a winning proposition? Is that what we want? Because if Putin prevails,

it'll make them a much stronger relationship between Russia and China. If he fails, and I have been... You have to turn it off. Excuse me. You have to cut it. The TV came on. So I apologize.

So we'll just cut that. But let me get back to my position, which is. People are emailing that the TV made more sense than Jack did. But that's all right. Go ahead. Well, good. It was CNN. So I hope they're happy.

So coming back to my point, do we want a strong Russia with Putin and Xi? Is that going to bring us peace and harmony so we can live in isolation and enjoy life? My observation, and this is the part that I'm trying to sell. I think Putin, the day he crossed, I'm on record, I'm on record in the Washington Post, not last month, in March of last year, a few days after he invaded, he sowed the seed of his own demise. That is actually good news for us. Whoever causes it, that's a good news. A weak Russia that sees Putin going weakens China as well as Russia. So you do want to see Putin out of office, whether it's because of his own mistakes or because of military defeats, Jack? Let me not equivocate. If you think I'm equivocating, I think Putin has to go.

Okay. No, I think the Russian people need to do it. We've got to make that distinction. That doesn't mean we put Putin. I think Putin has violated. people need to do it. We've got to make that distinction. That doesn't mean we put boots on. I think Putin has violated... Jack, let's suppose that you're back at the agency and the vice... He's now the president. Sorry. He was the vice president

then. And President Biden asks you, should I put troops on the ground? No, absolutely not. Absolutely not. You've got a fighting force out there. Read Jack Devine's two books. Spidemasters, Presby, good hunting. When do you support? You only support countries that have a mission that you agree with and they're willing to fight. They're fighting. They're going to help a job. When that turns the tide and that turns the tide,

then you come back and ask me right now, you do not put American troops on. You provide support. My formula is to find allies that we give them everything they have. Then if the Russians were to do anything directly against the United States, then you have to do the needful. But that's not where I am today. I want you to take a look at Admiral Kirby again talking about President Biden's investment in boots on the ground. President Biden has said since the very beginning of this conflict that we take our Article 5 commitments to NATO seriously. Article 5, of course, is the notion that an attack on one is an attack on all.

And we take that seriously. In fact, we take it so seriously that President Biden ordered an additional 20,000 American troops alone onto the European continent. And they still are there. Now, we'll be rotating them in and out. But the net number of 100,000 American troops on the European continent has stayed the same and will stay the same for the foreseeable future. I guess he thinks that Ukraine is already in NATO, the way he's quoting Article 5. But do we need 100,000 troops on the ground? But I was going to make the opposite point.

With 100,000 of them in Poland, in conjunction with 90,000 Polish troops, aren't we just waiting for somebody to light a match? Let me come back. I took his comments in the context of NATO, that the obligation is to NATO countries. And, you know, this country has signed up. The Congress has signed up. The vast majority of American people who support this. So we are supporting NATO. I haven't seen any congressman stand up and say that his constituents are opposed to that. But Russia hasn't attacked a NATO country. Pardon? Russia has not attacked any NATO country. Right. So these troops are not to be combat.

They should not be used in combat until a NATO troop is attacked. So where do you put them? You put them in Europe. You put them where it's an effort to make Putin stop twice and think before he invades Poland. They're not there to be the point of a lance of attack against the Russians in Ukraine. That's not part of the game plan. Geopolitically, is 100,000 American troops in Europe a lot, a little, the beginning? How many have we had for 50 years?

I think we've had more than that for 50 years. That's what I'm saying. We've had troops in Europe. They've been staged there for years. I have a grandson that's on his way to Romania, right? I mean, you know, we have troops all through Europe. It's been part of the alliance since World War II. But what happened, it got sleepy. And I think in the last three, four, five years, it's starting. But his invasion nato into a much stronger group that if you would have told

me a year before putin went in that the germans were going to provide tanks to ukraine i would say never never happened so that we're putting troops you know people are trying to draw lines here there's a very clear agreement with nato if they're attacked i mean if you want to change that then you got to go down and win elections get get people in Congress and change that. And you got to get new presidents and all. But as it stands now, that's the rules. That's what he was quoting. But I'm totally opposed to putting troops in Ukraine. Direct attack against NATO. Tell me how you, before we go, Jack, tell me how you think the war will progress in the next two or three months, in the dead of winter, before the spring arrives. Yeah, I'm more worried about the spring arrives.

All right, tell me about your fears of the spring. What are you worried about? Well, I think, you know, we see the Russians clawing away, the Wagner group taking a lot of losses, getting in town here and town there. I see that sort of dragging on. It depends on how quickly we get these armaments there, both the air defense, the shells. Both sides are desperate for shells of the right caliber. So I think it's going to be somewhat stalemated. Then we have to see how the new Russian army comes out. They come out in the spring and are they going to make a big push and have we been able to put everything that we need to to confront that are we ready with the right strategies i'm betting on the ukrainians still it's not to say that the

russians aren't going to be formidable i do think there will be under trained to be sometimes you create something big and it's not well trained they become caught at cannon fodder so I I think it's going to be a really tough a spring and I think the war in many ways will be decided not that there won't be a Victor in other words the Russians cannot conquer Ukraine as long as and the Ukrainians are not going to beat the Russians at a certain point where both sides pull back. And even if you don't have an agreement, they lower their intensity. And that's what I think Putin personally is in trouble in his own country. And I think he goes. If he fails, that's why the stakes are so big. All right. Well, when you say you still think Ukraine can prevail, what do you mean by prevail?

Well, I think when the push comes, that they'll be able to hold the Russians off. Russians will not be able to take it. But they're not going to push the Russians out of Eastern Ukraine, and they're certainly not going to push them out of Crimea. No, they're going to hold so that the Russian, what it'll be is when you and I can say, well, the Russians didn't win that one. It's not that the Ukrainians won. They will prevail by just holding them off. That'll be a failure in most Russians' mind. If he doesn't demonstrate that he's beaten the Ukrainians, when I say prevail, he will not beat the Ukrainians. He'll win a battle, win a battle, win a battle, not going to prevail as long as we're in it. Says he has 300,000 trained new troops ready to enter the theater. Well, he's going to add those to the thousands of prisoners he let out of jail

because he couldn't man his existing army. Who are these people that are coming in? What kind of training? You wouldn't think they went to Paris Island or Quantico. You think they've got – Well, got seal probably not of that caliber, but they're reservists who are trained and now perhaps unhappily are back in the military. It's a huge number.

Lunder armed and trained and supported in the first rounds. I mean, you know, they've got a lot of makeup work to do now. Maybe, maybe, maybe in this short period of time, they have really whipped their army together. It would be unprecedented, certainly unprecedented for the Russians, but numbers matter. But when you start, if you make that push and you're losing tens of thousands of people and you're not making ground, you're not winning. I mean, you might win another city, another province. It so much depends. And this is why time is so important, getting the stuff over there on time. And I'm not as critical about delay because I understand the delays. But we really would be in a much better position if we had moved quicker. And I don't

like to hear that, oh, we take us months to make tanks. That's really the wrong message. Not the message. It's the wrong action. Get the tanks loaded. Load them up. Jack Devine, always a pleasure, my man. You're a good man to come here.

Thank you very much for joining us. I'm consistent. I'm consistent. Yes, you are. Yes, you are, my man. And your audience is consistent. I'm consistent. Yes, you are. Yes, you are, my man. And your audience is consistent. Yes, my audience is consistent in its opinions of you. God bless them.

I had a guy leave a voicemail. I mean, you had some wackadoos out there, right? You got totally confused about life in the world. I hope it wasn't a judging freedom viewer that left you voicemail, Jack. It was. It was. And he said, listen, I believe everything the judge says, and you're full of shit.

That's what he said. Whoever he is, he's a good man. Thank you, Jack. I'll see you. I believe a lot of your audience are good people. This guy wasn't. This guy's one of those people that you've got to worry about at night. Yeah, don't worry.

My guess is he's a 100-pound weakling, big mouth but no muscle. But anyway, the only reason I don't listen to any of this stuff, other than it was all my voicemail. And then I thought, oh, this is humorous. Not humorous. That isn't the right word. It's like listening to someone that does mental, you know, thinks the aliens are coming to get us.

It's like, wow. Wow. There are people out like that. Anyway, I hope we move the ball a little bit today. Every time we talk, we move the ball. It's much appreciated, Jack. We'll see you again soon. Thank you.

And the interviews and the clips are really good. Yes, they are. I think they add to it and it gives you, you know, someone to, you know, bounce off of and, you know, it's not me just bouncing off of something very specific. Oh, no, you're Jack, I got to say. Jack,

you're starting the podcast. Yeah, good, bye. Thank you for joining us. Judge the Paul Taylor for Judging Freedom. And don't forget the book.