Judging Freedom - Scott Ritter - Ukraine Russia War Latest 12_16_22

Episode Date: December 16, 2022

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Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here with Judging Freedom. Today is Friday, December 16th, 2022. It's about 1.35 in the afternoon here on a snowy east coast of the United States, just a week or so before the Christmas weekend. Our guest today, of course, needs no introduction. He is the fan favorite of the Judging Freedom fans and a person who's extremely courageous and informative in what he tells us about with respect to what's going on in Ukraine. Scott Ritter, welcome back to the show. When you were on last, which was just two days ago, you teased us at the end about are we going to talk about Romania? And you and I agreed we would do the tease,

but we would wait until today to talk about Romania. What is happening of significance in the Ukraine-Russian conflagration that implicates Romania? Well, first of all, Russia has said from early on, I think in April, Russia published statistics about foreigners, mercenariesaries who were fighting in Ukraine on the side of the Ukrainian military and at that time Russia you know detailed you know thousands of Romanian citizens but more than likely either soldiers released from duty or people recently separated from the Romanian military who were fighting alongside the Ukrainians and suffering casualties. The Russian data was very specific. The Romanians immediately condemned it and said, no, it's false. And they said, well, one of the tricks that the Russians play is to provide great detail to make their information look credible, but it's false. But they provided

no backup on that. The Russiansussians have uh continued to say that their data is accurate and that the romanians continue to be involved not just in ukraine but increasingly in neighboring moldova which is an ostensibly neutral country but they have a very pro-western president who is angling for increased nat involvement in Moldova, who has said that she might be inclined to bring to an end the standoff with the breakaway republic or area Transnistria, a pro-Russian enclave where there are thousands of Russian troops, a giant arms depot that effectively declared itself independent of Moldova and is receiving support from Russia. They've been trying to negotiate reunification. It isn't going to happen.

And so she's made noises that maybe Moldova is going to make moves. And Romania has been supplying Moldova with officers, equipment, intelligence, support. Romania is egging Moldova on. So for any Romanian that wants to pretend that you're innocent in this, that you're just a neutral, innocent bystander, I call you a liar straight to your face. You're providing thousands of mercenaries in support of the Ukrainians, and you're actively egging on a neutral country, Moldova, to precipitate a conflict with Russia over Transnistria. All right. So is Romania acting at the behest of NATO? And if not, why would they be doing this? Why would a little place like that risk the fallout of getting involved in a conflagration between Ukraine and Russia

well I would believe that Romania has been given the green light to just like Poland has to maintain pressure on Russia but with an eye towards managing escalation that they don't want to have this escalate into direct conflict between a NATO nation and Russia. But like Poland, Romania has its own interests. Moldova, it's part of Romania, but the Soviet Union took it away. It's called Bessarabia. They took it away at the end of World War II, and they absorbed it into the Soviet Union. And when the Soviet Union collapsed, Moldova became independent, and they had a referendum that said, we don't want to rejoin Romania. We want to be independent. Romania sort of resented that ever since.

And so there's been a lot of movement now. Romania, some Romanians sense weakness on the part of Russia, that Russia might not be as strong as people thought, and that this might be an opportunity for Romania to take advantage of Russian weakness to absorb, reabsorb Moldova into Romania proper, or at least help get Moldova to be more closely linked to Romania. Do the globalists who run the American State Department and NATO have visions of Romania and maybe even Moldova, and we know they do with Ukraine, joining NATO? Well, I mean, Romania is a member of NATO. Right now we have 4,700 U.S. troops, 101st Airborne Division has a grenade operating in Romania. Part of the ongoing effort by the United States to stiffen the spine of NATO. It would be a feather in the cap of NATO

to get Moldova in. But the problem is Moldova's constitution mandates neutrality. It is a constitutional requirement that Moldova be neutral. It can forgive people for not knowing that because the Moldovan president, who's supposed to know the constitution, continuously speaks about her desire to join NATO and to have Moldova be part of the overall NATO, even if they're not a member, to be part of the NATO club. But constitutionally, they're not allowed to. And the majority of the Moldovan people don a member to be part of the NATO club, but constitutionally, they're not allowed to. And the majority of the Moldovan people don't want to be part of NATO. There's actually a significant pro-Russian segment of that society.

All right. Switching gears to the war in general. Winter is just about upon us. The Russian troops that have been in training are, we believe, ready to join the battle. How do things look from the perspective of Kyiv? Are they deluding themselves that they think that they can resist what's about to come? Do they really think that American Patriot missiles are going to save Kiev if they ever make their way to Kiev? Well, you know, there was an interesting interview with General Zeluzhny, the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces. And it was a fascinating interview because on the one hand, he said, look, the Russians are getting ready to launch a major offensive.

You're talking about the interview and The Economist. Correct. Yeah. Fascinating and, in my view, candid and devastating in its admissions with respect to Ukraine. But I'll let you continue. Absolutely correct. He basically said the Russians are going to kick our butts. They're getting ready to kick our butts, and there's really nothing we can do about it.

And then he said, I'm going to beat these guys. I'm going to beat them. But to do that, and here's the fascinating part, I need 300 tanks. I need 500 infantry fighting vehicles. I need 500 modern artillery tubes. I need unlimited ammunition. It reminded me of that movie Downfall about Hitler in the bunker at the end. It's a German movie, fascinating movie, when Hitler's around the table with his generals moving imaginary armies. Sign up. Event through this. Where are the troops? You know, I can win it if the troops just, but the troops aren't there.

And here's Zelensky. I'm sorry. I just fumbled his name. But the general saying, I can win this if you just invent me an army that's literally bigger than the British army. So he's saying, I can win if you give me the British army plus something. It isn't going to happen. A couple of questions. One, to what end is he saying this? Two, he can't get that even if Joe Biden opened up the floodgates. That's a massive, you tell us, that is a three or four man crew. So if we're talking 300 tanks, you know, that's, you know, that's a thousand guys. Plus you have the maintainers, the logistics, the whole infrastructure.

It's not just a tank. There's a whole bunch of stuff that comes with it. Infantry fighting vehicles, you know, it's only a crew of three, two or three, but it's a squad or a fire team. So anywhere between seven and 12 guys in the back of this thing. And you want 500 of those, do the math, thousands. So we're talking about basically, you know, 50, 60,000 troops plus this equipment, all trained and ready to fight. Now he has said that with this force, he would be able

to advance 84 kilometers and seize the city of Melitopol which is a part of the land bridge connecting crimea with um with the donbass melitopol he says if you can capture melitopol he'll shut off the supplies starve out crimea and be able to launch attacks in either direction i mean it's a dream i can play map games too i can get a map and draw arrows and say if i that, I could do this. But, you know, you can't do that because there's a thing called the Russian army between you and Melitopol. They're fully equipped, fully trained, rested. Right, Scott. He may be a patriot. He probably is from the Ukrainian perspective. And he probably wanted to impress his boss who was there during the interview. But why would he be saying this? Well, first of all, he's saying impress his boss. You're talking about Zelensky. What you have to understand is what was happening with this interview is that the West is starting to push Zelensky aside and to promote Zeluzhny as the

future leadership of Ukraine. This is happening all over the place. Notice what Zelensky said when he talked about all the major decisions. There's Zelensky sitting in the interview. Never once did Zelensky say, and on the orders of the president. You are the first person that I know of in the West on the media to be saying this and to point this out. So are the powers that be, whether it's NATO and the West, or whether it's the political leadership in Ukraine, recognizing Zelensky's not the guy to turn the page, but the general is? I think that's the trend. This isn't happening because the economist staff decided this was going to happen. This is happening because the feeling coming from Washington, I mean, you can see it in the emphasis that Washington gives. the New Yorker just a little while ago that could only have been written if the National Security Advisor of the United States said, I'm authorizing all these people to talk to

you and release this information. So you have to say, OK, this is something that the U.S. government wants us to read. Why? Because it was an article that put all the emphasis on Ukrainian Defense Minister and General Zelensky, and it de-emphasized Zelensky. This is part of a trend. Zelensky's day is past. He's no longer a force multiplier. He's a man who no longer brings much to the table. In the future, the future is going to be decided by people like General Zelensky, who, by the way, has presidential aspirations of his own.

The general must know, but the general must know what you just told us, which is that that equipment and those trained human beings and that ammunition, it's not going to arrive. It doesn't exist. If it does exist, it's not in a location where it can easily, feasibly, and quickly be brought to him. So why is he asking for something that he knows isn't there unless he's prepared to kick Zelensky to the side and sit down and negotiate a truce with President Putin? I think you're hitting it on the head, Judge. I might as well let you answer because you just answered. You gave the answer. It's quite clear.

You're a good teacher, Scott, the way you've been educated. I'm just a simple trial lawyer and legal scholar and former TV guy, but you're the one that's educating us. You put two and two together there. Look, what he did in setting up this question, he said, look, I can go to Melitopol. I can split their defenses. I can beat these guys. I can do this, that, and the other thing. But to do it, I need this.

Then he said, if I don't get that, then you know what's going to happen. The Russians. And so what he's saying is, I can win if you give me this, but I know you're not going to give it to me. So we all know what's about to happen, which is the major Russian offensive, and there's not much we can do to stop it. So he's creating an excuse for failure. Moving forward a little bit.

Winter is there. Winter is just about here. By the way, in northern New Jersey, winter is here. I'm covered in five inches. And there's a sheet of ice on top of the snow. But that's life up here. It's New Jersey, but this time of year it's like Vermont or New Hampshire. It's beautiful.

Winter is there. The huge Russian numbers are ready. Are they not? What happens next? Well, I think, I mean, there is about 175,000 troops that need to come. And understand this, the Russians are patient. They are not going to get ahead of themselves. So you don't start an offensive operation until you have all the pieces in place. So there's still some troops being trained that are coming in. This will probably, you know, they'll be arriving here by the end of the month, early next month. But then the Russians are going to, the first thing they

have to do is cut the Gordian knot of the Ukrainian defenses opposite Donetsk. And the key to that is Bakhmut. The city is about to fall. The Russians have succeeded in basically cutting off their supplies through fire. And they're in the process of this. The Ukrainians understand what's happening. They're pouring in everything they got. Their most elite units are being poured into Bakhmut and they're being ground up. Units are going in. Battalions are suffering 100% casualties. Normally, that's a sign to get out. The Ukrainians just keep putting them in to try and slow the Russians down. Eventually, Russia is going to break through sooner rather than later. And when that happens, we're out of positional warfare. We're into maneuver warfare. And this is where 200,000,

300,000 troops, freshly trained, freshly equipped, ready to fight fight are going to come into play and then the question is which direction do they do they go uh whichever direction they go they're going to win zeluzhny uh you know I think he's playing mind games with them he said uh they you know I think they're going to make a move on Kiev because he wants them to make a move on yeah because the last thing he wants them to do is dominate the main fight. I think the Russians are going to do their primary task, which is to push the Ukrainians out of Donetsk proper to fulfill their promise to liberate all of the Donbass. And then to push Ukrainians even further out of artillery range of the cities, because right now the cities are being shelled, civilians are dying. And then I believe they're probably going to pivot south and make a move towards Odessa. But, you know, everything you've just said, everything you've just said must be known or at least suspected by American intel. American intel

is on the ground, CIA, whoever else is there. They're spying not only on the Russians, they're spying on the Ukrainians. They know what's going on. They must be telling this to the president. Is the president, Tony Blinken, Lloyd Austin, Jake Sullivan, are those guys going to see this as it truly is? Or are they going to react the way LBJ did when Westmoreland in 1965 said I need another 125,000 troops, lambs to the slaughter, and LBJ said okay we'll get them for you. So which way is this going to go? Before you answer that, take into account this. Lieutenant General Robert McGowan, British Army, leaked that British troops are in Ukraine doing training. Pentagon has leaked and when challenged by NBC and CNN

did not deny that the US has advisors, same word LBJ used for the initial landing of troops in Vietnam, and that the advisors are there to do training. I don't know if the advisors, American advisors, are in uniform or not. If they're in uniform, they can be shot. If they're not in uniform, they can be shot as spies. Either way, this is very dangerous. Does Joe Biden know that some Americans could come home in body bags or without limbs that they had when they got there? All right, I'm laying all this out. I think the president has been fully briefed by his national security team on not only what America's doing on the ground in Ukraine, but what's likely to happen in the

coming months. The United States is in a very difficult predicament because they have been promoting this conflict and encouraging Ukraine to resist. You know, the United States bought into its own propaganda. You know, over the course of the summer, Judge, you know this. The pressure that was being placed on you for allowing people like me and Colonel McGregor on your program. How dare you let these Russian propagandists on here? They're fighting this. Ukraine's winning. Russia's going to lose.

I still hear from that crowd, even though you get hundreds of thousands of views, like the people watching us now. I still hear from the crowd, some of the personal friends who want me to stop putting you and McGregor on, and I will not stop. Well, I appreciate it. But, you know, the proof is in the pudding and the pudding is ready to be eaten right now. Ukraine is going to be eaten for lunch and dinner and breakfast and whatever leftovers. And the U.S. military now knows this. I mean, one only has to see the eyes of General Wesley Clark, former four-star commander of NATO. You know, he used to get cockily. The Russians are going to lose. They're the most horrible fighters in the world. Can't do this. Can't do that. And then lately, his interviews, he's like a deer in

headlights. The Ukrainian army has been sucked into a trap in Bakhmut. The Russians own them. They're destroying them. They're devastating. There's nothing that can happen. I'm like, yeah, you're finally waking up to the reality that Russia's serious about this game. And the president knows this. And this is why what you're seeing is, to the reality that Russia is serious about this game. And the president knows this. And this is why what you're seeing is on the one hand, we do something like we're going to send Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Well, they're not really going to get there that soon because it takes a minimum of five months to train up these troops before they're ready. So, you know, even decisions made, it ain't going to happen for five months. And I'm telling you right now, in five months, the battle isn't, the map isn't going to look anywhere like what it looks like right now.

It's going to be an awful lot of Russian advancing, a lot of dead Ukrainians. So that's a political ploy. But behind the scenes, they're calling up Zelensky saying, you got to negotiate. Now, Zelensky's saying, no, he's coming up with these impossible things. The Russians have to retreat, surrender, turn Putin over to a war crimes tribunal. You know who's more realistic? Zeluzhny. This is why we're seeing the transition. The general gave the interview to the Chronicle magazine with President Zelensky sitting next to him with his lips zipped. And the interesting thing about Zeluzny, if you listen to, pay attention to what the Russians are saying about Zelensky, dismissive, derisive. They have no respect for this guy. Zeluzny, from the top to the bottom, we respect him as an opponent. He's an honorable man. He's a

professional fighter. We respect the, you know, what he's done. We're going to beat him, but we respect him. Now, why would they be saying this? And I think the reason why is because he's the guy that is going to be sitting across the table from them when conflict termination is being discussed. And so they're creating the opportunity for his presence to be credible because if they attack him right now, you can't sit across the table from somebody that you attack. If you praise him, then he's somebody you can do business with, and the deal can be seen as legitimate by the Russian people. I want your analysis on these leaks. I don't know if you know personally or know of this British general, Lieutenant General. Okay. So there's no way he'd be leaking this if 10 Downing Street didn't want it leaked. And there's no way he'd be leaking it if it were untrue, given who he is and

what his rank is. What the hell are British soldiers doing there? And why is their boss telling everybody that they are there? And remember, there's another aspect to this. In England, there's the Official Secrets Act. So there's no way that this stuff would have been published in the newspaper unless the government wanted it published. So it's not just that he's leaking, because he's not leaking. He's speaking in his formal capacity. In his formal capacity, his words are an exception to the Official Secrets Act. If some private or corporal tells his girlfriend what the general announced before the general announces it, this information. And here's why.

What are British soldiers doing there? Why is the general telling the Russians publicly what they already know privately, that the Brits are there? Why don't they ask you the same question about the Americans? Well, about the Brits, basically what he's saying is that 4-5 Commando, this British Marine unit, was deployed to Ukraine twice. Once in January, I believe, to provide security to the embassy. The second time in April, I believe, to secure people and bring them out. 4-5 Commando is not a covert unit. It's a line infantry unit. But then he said British troops or Marines are operating covertly in high-risk areas with great risk, et cetera, et cetera,

but not very specific about that. Now, to the average reader, they're going to link that statement to the presence of 4-5 Commando, and that was the idea. That's the whole purpose of this thing is to link potential classified missions to 4-5 Commando. Why? Because I believe that 4-5 Commando is no longer in there. They did their limited job. They got out.

People that are on the ground in Ukraine, helping the Ukrainian Marines and Ukrainian Navy are the Special Boat Service, which is a classified unit, a covert unit. And I believe they've suffered casualties. And because they are recruited from the ranks of the Royal Marines, I think at some point in time

when the names have to be released, they're going to be released as 4-5 Commando so that there is plausible deniability about the presence of the Special Boat Service on the ground in Ukraine, because there's no other reason for the General to have done this. There's no legitimate reason. I think this is to create cover. Just like during Black Hawk Down, during the Mogadishu raid, when the Delta Force operatives were killed, the United States Army released them as members of the 5th Special Forces Group out of Fort Campbell, Kentucky. They didn't say, you know, 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment Delta because that was a classified name, a classified unit at the time. A couple more topics I want to go through with you. attachment delta because that was a classified name a classified unit at the time so a couple more topics i want to go through with you the americans uh why did the american why did the

pentagon leak that american advisors are there what is an advisor are they in uniform or not are they armed or not are they anywhere near areas where they can be killed by russians or where they're shooting at russians, there were two aspects to the leak. One was talking about beefing up the on-site inspection capabilities of a couple dozen American soldiers. They said that they were going to have a sort of scanner in their hands like you get at the supermarket, self-checkout, to make sure that the equipment that arrived in Ukraine was the same stuff that left Poland. That's a little ridiculous, but that's what he said. Well, no, equipment is barcoded. It should be barcoded for accountability

purposes. So they're going to come in and be able to go scan it and say, yep, that's this, yep, that's that, whatever. But the surprise was when they acknowledged that they have technical advisors on the ground advising the Ukrainian military on the operation of some of the equipment that's brought in. This raises questions. Are these guys trainers? Are they maintainers? Are they a combination of the two? Or are they involved in operations, operational planning? Do we know if they're in uniform? Mr. President, do you have troops on the ground, sir, in Ukraine? How does he answer that? Well, he should answer it honestly. But, you know, the U.S. government very rarely answers honestly when it comes to sensitive military deployments for obvious reasons. But why leak

it to the press? That's the question. If you don't want Judge Napolitano and Scott Ritter to be discussing it on judging freedom, why would you leak it to the press? What is the purpose of that? And the purpose is to have us discuss this. So obviously, our job is to generate some sort of story that's covering something up. And I think that's where we have to go on this, is that there's something going on that they don't want us to know about. So they release information to get it, you know, it's sort of like confuses over here and it's focused on this or something

else is happening. And I, I think that something else might be the fact that we have technical advisors for deployed in combat areas whose lives are at risk. And, you know, we may have even lost some and we're trying to come up with a plausible deniability about what they were doing in Ukraine. That's just speculation. Tell me what the polls are up to. The Polish president is even more aggressive than his opposite number in Moldova. This is the fellow who said, I think we can win back the Crimea, which of course is They're just west of the Polish-Ukraine border. Putin and his generals know that they're there. Who turns down the heat on this tea kettle that's

about to start bubbling and whistling? Well, first of all, we have to remember that in Belarus right now is a joint Belarusian-Russian operational group that will wipe the table with the Poles if the Poles ever wanted to play that game. It might be more difficult if the Americans jump in, at least initially. The Americans are better troops, but sustainability issues come into play, etc. But I think that that force is a deterrence against any Polish overreach. And I also believe that the Russians, therefore, because they're successfully deterring Polish incursion into Western Ukraine, aren't, I don't believe they're going to make a drive at kiev you lose that deterrence value because now your troops are fully committed to give and you create an opportunity for the polls now that you've committed to kiev for the polls to come into western ukraine and now put the russians in the horns of the dilemma do they continue to drive on kiev or do they pivot and respond to western

ukraine thereby putting themselves at risk the russians aren't stupid so i don't think they're going to fall into the trap of it's sucked towards and then be divided. I think the troops stay up in Belarus as a deterrence against overreach, because down south, there are more than enough guys to accomplish the war-winning strategies that Russia has. You don't have to take Kiev to win this war. Okay. A big picture before we leave, Scott. How will this look in a couple of months? Let's say February, the middle of the winter, the bitterest atmospheric conditions in that part of the world. How will this look? Well, first of all, Ukraine is going to be totally shut down, lights out, civilians freezing. Horrible, horrible situation for the civilians of Ukraine. And this is going to lead to a collapse of morale at the front.

It's very difficult for Ukrainian soldier. And General Zeluzhny alluded to this. He said it's very hard to have a soldier at the front suffering in the conditions they are, knowing that their wives and children are freezing back home. Morale will collapse. And this is the truth. The morale of the Ukrainian forces will collapse. I believe that the Russians are going to cut the Gordian knot that is Bakhmut. They're going to roll up the defenses. I think this time in February, you'll have seen the Russians have accomplished their objective of liberating the Donbas and working on building that buffer zone and preparing

to make either the pivot south or the pivot north, depending what the Russian leaders want to do. Do they invade Kiev? Do they surround Kiev? Do they put a noose around the neck of Kiev? I mean, there's so many religious and historical and cultural aspects to Kiev that... I don't believe so. ...carnish. Yeah, I don't believe so. I don't think they need to. All they need in Kiev is a General Zeluzhny who is able to recognize defeat and be enough of a patriot to try and preserve as much of his country as possible

and as many lives as possible through a negotiated settlement. What does Joe do, President Biden, when General Zelensky takes over and negotiates a peace? I don't think there's anything the United States can do. We don't have any more options. I mean, we're giving them what patriots now, but that's going to take five months. I think this is going to be almost over in five months. F-16s, Zaluzny alluded to it. I'm not asking for F-16s. Well, you are by making that up, but the U.S. isn't going to give them F-16s. We don't have anything left to give them. So I do believe that we are going to be looking for the softest possible landing imaginable. And I do believe that we are advising the Ukrainians that they do not want to lose the

port of Odessa, that they under no circumstances do you allow the russians to make you a landlocked nation so that uh negotiated settlement sooner rather than later is the best option this is why i think you saw the illusion all but admit that they're going to lose i mean even though he's saying if you give me this that and the other thing i can do this that's fantasy what he's really saying is my conditions for victory are so ridiculous that we shouldn't be talking about victory. We should be recognizing impending defeat. I have to tell you that I read this interview in The Economist and I read other people's evaluations of it. Yours is exceptionally candid and right on the mark. It's not exaggerated at all. And I say to my friends watching this show, read this interview because it is just remarkably

candid what this general is saying. If the general spoke English, the general could very well be on this program with Colonel McGregor and Scott Ritter in terms of his willingness to recognize the obvious rather than create just a political argument. Scott, it's always a pleasure, my man. I hope we can do this again before Christmas comes. Remember, it's not too late to get this armament in a time of perestroika, Scott's personal journal and personal memoir of all he did and all he observed in the arms control world. And you can see there two human beings that profoundly changed the history of the world, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. I would say Merry Christmas, but I hope we speak again before Christmas is here.

Scott Ritter, always a pleasure. Thank you, my dear friend. Thank you, sir. Judge Napolitano. Boy, that was a fabulous 30 minutes. It just went by like that. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thank you.