Judging Freedom - Scott Ritter - Ukraine Russia War Update

Episode Date: September 23, 2022

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Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Friday, September 23rd, 2022. It's about 2.30 in the afternoon here on the East Coast of the United States. My next guest, of course, needs no introduction to the regular Judging Freedom fans and viewers. Scott Ritter is one of our principal go-to guys on what's happening on the ground in Ukraine and its effect in Washington, D.C. and in Moscow. Scott, always a pleasure. Welcome back to Judging Freedom.

Well, thank you very much for having me. It's a pleasure to be here. Thanks for coming here, of course. We have all been reading in the past three or four days, obviously this is mainstream media, which includes my former employers at Fox, that things are in turmoil in Russia, that President Putin's call for the activation of 300,000 reservists is not going well. The people were terrified of the draft and that Putin and the Russian military's back is to the wall in Ukraine. So set us straight first with the state of affairs militarily in Ukraine, and then let's talk about what's realistic in Moscow and what's realistic in Washington in response to that military state of affairs.

Well, certainly. Look, the last time I was on, we talked aboutian counter-offensive and what happened in kharkiv and what i said straight up is this is a game changer that basically russia was no longer fighting the ukrainian military they were fighting a nato military manned primarily by ukrainians but in nato military and that russia had insufficient forces allocated to the task, that it would be able to defend the territories it had. But the concept of successfully completing the stated objectives of the special military operation was beyond the capacity of 200,000 Russian troops. And I said Russia was going to have to basically double the amount of troops. Well, guess what? that's what they're

doing i mean it's it's it's literally you know there's a biblical uh phrase uh i'm not a big bible person but sometimes the bible has some nice quotes i think it's hosea 8 6 uh so the wind reaped the whirlwind that's what's happening right now with uh with nato ukraine united states uh they have decided to escalate the united states of course and nato escalating with a policy designed to kill as many russians as possible to bleed russia white to weaken russia so that russia could no longer engage in this kind of activity um Well, Russia's not just going to roll over and play dead. So Russia has ordered a partial mobilization. It's not a complete mobilization, a partial mobilization of its reserves. And this is an important point. What does that mean? Colonel

McGregor has opined, you're a friend and colleague and mine, that a partial mobilization of 300,000 troops is really only about 30,000 first-rate fighting troops and the rest either needing a lot of training or support personnel? I would disagree with that respectfully by pointing out that russia has a 25 million reserves um 25 million reserves reservists now these are people who basically in the russian system if you serve in the military once you get out you're automatically registered and and you are subjected to recall. So they have a pool of 25 million reservists. Now, I would say that if you went in and randomly selected from this 25 million pool, I think Colonel McGregor's answer is right. But the fact of the matter is, of those 25 million,

they're only selecting a little bit more than 1% of the 300,000. And these are people who all have served in combat units. I mean, so let's just start off with that. None of these guys are cooked bakers, candlestick bakers. None of these guys are, you know, obscured ammo, you know, military occupation specialties. These are people with specific combat-related skills, most of whom have combat experience. This is what the Russians have. So I say the Russians. I want you to compare the manpower that the Russians have

once these 300,000 join them to the manpower that the Ukrainians have, and you can take into account the NATO guys that are out of uniform, if you want, if that's even worth counting. Well, let's just start with Ukraine. Their regular army that they started this conflict with, which was very well trained, very well equipped, very well led, has been destroyed, fundamentally destroyed. They've suffered over 50% casualties, and there's not a single military unit in the world, with the exception of the Marine Corps, because we just walk on water. That level of casualties can continue to be combat effective.

Ukrainian colonels, a commander of their special forces, said, I've lost 80% of my men. The guys they're giving me now just aren't up to the task. That's what we're looking at. Even though NATO has brought in all of this equipment, even though ukraine has stripped away some people to be retrained uh the capabilities of this nato force um you know is is diminishing over time they lost virtually everything in this counter offensive they've got nothing left um and they're trying to rebuild now we take a look at the Russians. The Russians had around 200,000.

Before you go to the Russians, what remains of the Ukraine? How many boots, I don't want to double the number, but how many human beings on the ground in uniform do they have or how many do they have available that they can call up? Have they reached into their reserves well they're in their sixth or seventh round of mobilization so you know everybody's like oh my god the russians are mobilizing their backs against the wall ukraine's mobilized had six or seven rounds of mobilization right now ukraine has frozen the movement of all men if you are if

you are a young man or going to the border combat, you're seized at the border and thrown into the front line. What are the Ukraine numbers? How many human beings does Ukraine have to go up against Russia's 300,000? Well, I'll get to the Russian numbers. It's going to be closer to a half a million. But the Ukrainians right now have around 700,000 men under arms. Now, but these include poorly trained territorial defense units. These include reserve units that are poorly trained.

And these include recently reconstituted units that have men with zero combat experience operating equipment that they don't know how to operate. So they do have some combat capable units. Don't get me wrong. There's some ukrainian units out there that can fight but um by and large ukrainian military has been depleted and what they're looking at right now is a largely untested force um that's going up against now we come to the russians the the the bulk of the fighting that's been done so far has been done by the militias of the denetz people's's Republic, the Lugansk People's Republic, supported by Wagner contractors, the Chechens, the National Guard, etc.

The Russian army itself has not been decisively committed into battle. Much of the Russian military has been used to guard rear areas and to protect the border up north of Kharkiv. Okay, let me stop you at that point. Is that an error by Russian military leadership or President Putin? I mean, shouldn't they have been more aggressive? Why are they waiting until now, eight months into the fight, to get aggressive? Well, the special military operation was designed to demilitarize the Ukrainian military. It's been done. All of the equipment the Ukrainians started this war with has been destroyed. 5,000 tanks.

5,000 tanks have been destroyed. Tanks and armor-fighting vehicles. Hundreds of aircraft. All that Ukraine has now is stuff that's been given to them since then. So if one wants to criticize the Russians, what are you criticizing for? For winning the special military operation, which they have done? Or are you criticizing them for not predicting that NATO was going to inject tens of billions of dollars of heavy equipment into Ukraine and that the Ukrainian government was willing to sacrifice the the cream of its of this generation i mean because ukraine will not win this fight there's not a military

professional around that isn't paid by a you know cnn or somebody else to spute nonsense that's going to tell you ukraine's going to win even nato even the pentagon all say the best they can hope for is for the ukrainians to drag this conflict out and cause more all say the best they can hope for is for the Ukrainians to drag this conflict out and cause more casualties for the Russians than Russia. How long will it take for the Russian military to get these 300,000 reservists? He just called them up in the past week or so, as far as we know. How long will it take the Russians to get them in uniform, armed, on the ground, and integrated into the fighting forces? Well, first of all, let's just start off with the following truth. Russia's not panicked.

I mean, there's a lot of people out there. Putin's back's against the wall. They're panicked. There ain't nothing panicked about what's going on. This has been a very orderly call-up. They're bringing in guys who have been there, done that. They all got the t-shirts. There's nobody, you know, the guys that are walking into the station are like you and me, they might've packed on a couple pounds since they got out of the military. Their hair might be a little grayer, a little bit receding hairline, but they know what they're doing. These are adults. They're experienced. There ain't nothing scared about them. They're going to undergo a couple days of receiving training. Because they've been out, many of them probably have disqualifying health conditions. So they're going to be checked out

by doctors. And those who aren't physically qualified will be given a handshake and a letter and sent home. Those who are physically qualified will be organized into units. And those units will be dispatched to the reserve training areas where they will get a quick two-week refresher on what it's like to be back in the military. Remember, they've all been in the military. They've been to basic training. They've served their time. So it's just a refresher to remind them that you sort of have to salute an officer. You have to stand at attention. This is how you wear your uniform. Here's your weapon, clean it, et cetera. And then they're going to be turned over for what could be about two months of

organizational and operational training to turn them into a combat capable unit. And they're going to learn how to use their equipment, they're going to practice using their equipment, and then there will be a final exam. And the unit will be put through a training evaluation officers from the general staff will sit there and evaluate them and if they pass that you know begin to be combat capable and will be turned over to the high command for deployment into the zone of the special military operation so we're looking at about three months think, before you start to feel the impact of these troops on the battlefield. How precarious is President Putin, if at all, in holding on to the presidency of Russia? There's nothing precarious about it. The man's stronger than he's ever been.

This decision to mobilize is being taken well by Russia. In fact, most Russians who support this conflict have been frustrated that it didn't come sooner. The only criticism they have of Putin is, why did it take so long? But again, when one breaks down the legal aspects of what it takes to make this happen, etc., Putin's doing everything correct. There's no panic in Russia. There's no, I mean, we, I know you want to ask a question about the long lines of people on the airplanes and the broken hands and all that. It's just not happening. Look, Russia's a nation of, you know, 130 some odd million people. Let me get back to what you mentioned because you and I discussed this before we came on air. The American press is reporting that the most Googled question, I don't know how they get this information, maybe Google lets it out of Google, it can't even be believed. The most

Googled question in Russia is, how can I easily and painlessly break a bone? Because apparently, if you have a broken bone, can't be drafted does that make sense no it doesn't make first of all if you have a freshly broken bone you could be arrested and go to jail for 10 years so um you know it's just it's ludicrous first of all again the only people you know who would break a bone let's just ask yourself right off it's common sense uh let's say you're a university student and you're scared you're going to be pulled out of university and sent to war. But that's not going to happen. Putin said, if you're in university, don't worry about it. Stay in university. Let's say you're somebody at home taking care of an elderly relative or kids. You ain't going to the draft.

Let's say you're somebody who works in defense industry, another critical job. You're not going to the draft. The only people being considered are people with prior contract military experience, professional soldiers in the combat arms. And these aren't wimps. You're not going to get a former infantryman sitting there smoking a cigarette going, hold up, break a hand, buddy. He's going to be like, okay, I get it. I get it. But is there a widespread fear amongst the Russian populace that Putin might institute a draft? Or are there so many other steps he'd have to go through first? Are there so many other experienced personnel that he can tap first that a draft happening tomorrow or next month or next year is not a realistic fear? There is no realistic fear of a draft. There's 25 million men in the reserves. And right now, they're mobilizing a little bit more than 1%. If they need more, they'll mobilize another one percent and another one percent you know so what we now have 90s there will be no draft and i think one of the issues here is that

again we have to acknowledge you know putin's popularity right now is 83 84 85 86 percent but that means that there's 14 15 16 of the of the Russians who are against them, who would be opposed to this conflict. And these are the people who are more likely to be inclined towards pro-Western thinking. And so, you know, they're the ones that might be Googling how to break a hand and how to do this and how to do that. I'm not pretending. We can't pretend that there's 100% of, you know, steadfast support in Russia. There never has been. Russia has always been a country that's of, you know, steadfast support in Russia. There never has been. Russia's always been a country that's had, you know, people who are in opposition and there are opposition today, but the vast majority of the Russians, and I'm just telling you, the guys that have served in

combat who are being called up, they aren't worried about a darn thing. They're just like, let's get the job done. All right. A few minutes ago, you said that all serious military leadership on both sides of this, with the exception of some retired, don't let me put words in your mouth, American military now paid by CNN, know that the Ukrainians can't win and the Russians will win. Is that certain knowledge enjoyed by the Pentagon? Yes. Is that certain knowledge expressed to the White House? Yes. I mean, look. I thought you had told us before, and maybe I got this from Phil Giraldi, who's our intelligence guy,

or Colonel McGregor, our other military guy, that by the time the truth made its way to the Oval Office, it didn't sound the same. Well, wait a minute. I'm trying to be charitable here. There's different, no, there's, we're asking two different stages of the question. You see, the game changed, Judge. The game's changed, fundamentally changed. Why? Because we're no longer dealing with a Ukrainian conflict. The game is now fundamentally changed because there's a referendum taking place right

now that will, with 100% certainty, transform these four oblasts into Mother Russia. And once that happens, it's game, set, match, Putin, it's all over. Because, see, Putin has said the defense of the homeland is an existential issue for Russia. And I'm glad you raised this. And then we'll get to whether Joe Biden's being lied to or misled or whether he's dumb like a fox. In these areas where the referenda are occurring, is that the only areas of Ukraine that Putin wants? Has he stated differently? Has he already achieved what he set out to accomplish? Is he ready to say, we won? No, NATO forced his hand early. This was

inevitably going to happen, what's taking place right now. But I think the Kharkov offensive basically made him realize and accept that they have insufficient forces to the task and that they're going to have to constraints because of the nature of the SMO supporting independent republics, collective security agreements. There's a lot of law involved. The way to see it, the way to get to geography, is there more land that Putin believes rightly belongs to Russia that he has to conquer? Or is he satisfied with what he has and the areas where the referenda are taking place, even as we speak? No, he's made it clear that Novoe Rosia, new Russia, all of it is going home, coming home. And that means Odessa and Kharkov are going to be part of this. This conflict will not end until at a minimum, both of those have been occupied by Russia, referendums have taken place, and they've been absorbed into Russia.

Okay. Will the West give any credibility to these referenda? None whatsoever. Zero. Okay. What are American intelligence or American military brass telling the White House about how this ends. Because if Joe Biden believes that Ukraine's going to lose, I would think that that would change and shape what he's doing and saying. Is he being kept in the dark? Is he blind to reality? Are his own senior people misleading him? senior military people misleading him? Does Lloyd Austin, the former four-star, former member of the Raytheon board, now the secretary of defense, is he part of the large military leadership that knows with certainty Ukraine will lose and Russia will win?

And if he is, what does he tell his boss? Well, what I believe, again, I don't know this because I'm not privy. I believe that what Putin just did this week was unexpected, that Putin basically took us by surprise. The partial mobilization came as a shock, combined with the referendum. You see, one of the things about the Kharkov offensive and the whole Karasov offensive was designed to disrupt the notion of a referendum. And in the aftermath, it looked like Russia was confused. They were saying, well, we're going to cancel these referendums they were holding. We're going to move them off to November. Then we're canceling them indefinitely. And if you were in the White House, you're saying, this is working. This is working. What

we're doing is working. We are literally throwing them off balance. But no, all we did is wake them up. And now by holding this mobilization combined to a referendum, see the mobilization is going to free up 200,000 combat troops who otherwise were not engaged in combat. And Russia's going to have a large, focused, offensive-oriented military that's going to bring together all the power that Russian doctrine brings. And that's that. But it's also going to be in defense of the motherland. And this is the game changer, because now Russia's no longer involved in a special military operation.

Russia's involved in defending the motherland, which brings nuclear weapons very much into the equation. Does Joe Biden know what you have just summarized? He knows exactly what, because he knows about nuclear weapons. He knows the threat. He knows right now that NATO and the United States are in the horns of a dilemma, because to continue to support Ukraine to the level they do puts them at risk of being becoming you know complicit not in the defense of ukraine or the liberation of occupied territory but complicit in an attack on mother russia just like russia won't attack nato because of article 5 the united states and nato will not attack r attack Russia because of Putin's nuclear weapons. But if the United States has a weaponry trained in use by United States and NATO non-uniform personnel used by Ukrainian troops to fire on what last week was Ukraine and next week may be Russia, right? Does that trigger

a broader conflagration? I don't believe so. Look, the Russians are very mature. Already, Ukraine has been firing into Russia. They've been attacking villages inside Russia. They've attacked Russian cities, Belgorod. They've attacked Crimea, which the Russians view as Russia, and the Russians haven't overreacted. What I believe is going to happen is that the Russians are going to take the gloves off, and they're going to cleanse Ukraine of these weapons. They're already employing these Iranian-provided kamikaze drones that are wiping out the Ukrainian artillery. They're going to come in heavy with air power, I believe, and they're going to cleanse Ukraine of this NATO artillery, NATO rockets. And at that point in time, from the Russian perspective, the slate is wiped clean. Russia

won't hold the West accountable for weapons already delivered because those weapons were delivered under a certain arrangement. But Russia will hold the West accountable for any future deliveries. And right now you have a wild debate going on inside NATO as to what to do now. The military committee of NATO, which makes the decisions, not Stoltenberg, has come out and said, we're not at war with Russia.

We don't want war with Russia. And you see a lot of people starting to back off because they understand the game has changed to continue to provide Ukraine with heavy weaponry once the soil that this weaponry is going to be used on is classified by Russia. Remember, it doesn't matter that we don't recognize it. During the Cold War, if you looked at the map of the Soviet Union, always the Baltic republics were called Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and we said occupied. We never recognized the Russian occupation of that, but we didn't send Marines

in there either because we know if we did that, Russia would treat its attack on the Soviet Union as a nuclear weapon. We don't recognize these referendums, but we understand the reality of it, that Russia recognizes them. Russia constitutionally is obligated to protect them as if they were Russia, and there will be consequences to be made if we allow Ukraine, if we empower Ukraine to attack Russia. So this is going to be interesting for Ukraine going forward, because basically, NATO has set them up to fail. We've set them up to be offensive-oriented, but now if Ukraine is offensive-oriented,

they will be, and Russia's not going to nuke them. I'm just telling you that 200,000 troops concentrated into a mailed fist are going to do a lot of damage to Ukraine that hasn't been done yet. This isn't going to be a special military operation going forward. This is going to be Russian military doctrine effectively employed with sufficient force to the task. Scott Ritter, always a pleasure. You always educate us. Thanks so much for joining us today. Thanks for having me. Judge Napolitano for joining us today. Thanks for having me. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.