Judging Freedom - [SPECIAL EDITION] Alastair Crooke : How Close Is War With Iran?

Episode Date: June 12, 2025

[SPECIAL EDITION] Alastair Crooke : How Close Is War With Iran?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

you Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, June 12th, 2025. Welcome here. Alistair Crook joins us for this special edition of Judging Freedom. Just how close is war between the United States and Iran? But first this. While the markets are giving us whiplash, have you seen the price of gold? It's soaring. In the past 12 months, gold has risen to more than $3,000 an ounce. I'm so glad I bought my gold,

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truly and deeply appreciate it. I have a lot of questions for you and I'm sure you have a lot of analysis for us on Iran and the Middle East and whether or not the United States is truly preparing for war. But before we get there, I have to ask you one or two questions about Russia. I particularly want you to see a clip which we did not have for you when you were here on Monday because it hadn't yet taken place. He hadn't yet said it. This is Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. It's a very brief clip. It's about 25 seconds saying he's 100% certain that MI6 perpetrated the drone attacks on Russia. He doesn't use the phrase MI6, but we know what he's talking about.

I'd like your thoughts on this. Chris, cut number eight. It is obvious that the Ukrainian side is doing everything possible, but it would be absolutely helpless without the support. I was tempted to say Anglo-Saxons, but probably without Saxons, just without the support of the British. Although you never know, probably by inertia, some US special forces would be involved in that. But the British are actually behind all those things. I'm 100% sure. Does that tell you he has seen Intel or is this a PR statement by the Kremlin? Oh, I almost certainly this he has the evidence of this and he has the intelligence of showing that this is not PR, this is intelligence. And he's saying that. Now, what does that mean? Does it mean that MI6 is running things? I would say that it's possible and very likely, and he's right, that MI6 could be fronting, that

the British are fronting this. Perhaps the Americans are happy to sort of draw back a little bit on this so that it doesn't seem too obvious that they're engaged in a direct war with Russia, because that's still sensitive in the United States, that sense of it. So it may be that is the case, but nothing moves between London without consultation with the CIA in one form or another.

You know, the head of the CIA station in London, I don't know the situation today or whatever, but it always used to be that he or she, it was often a she, simply could walk into Downing Street, into Prime Minister's office, and pass a message or tell him what they wanted done. So I mean it's very close, they have the ability to go straight in and talk and so it's quite likely that you know at that level you know they said well why don't you you know I think it's easier for us if you front it a little bit because there are if you you like, tensions in the United States,

the United States doesn't like admitting that they're in a proxy war against Russia, let alone a direct war with Russia. So you can take the lead and we'll back it up. And I think probably that's what we're seeing there. And, you know, just the point is that the absolutely the bedrock of British policy with the five I's and all this period has been that there should be absolute cooperation between the intelligence services of the US and the UK. And that is more than any geopolitical diplomatic priority, that is at the bedrock of British foreign policy. If that is still so,

and we have no reason to disbelieve it. And Secretary of Defense, Hegseth says under oath, the United States didn't know about this. That could probably mean only one of two things, either his underlings or his colleagues didn't tell him or he's not being truthful. Well, you know, many of these things, all of this type of operation has what you've heard say plausible deniability.

Well, what does that mean? Well, I mean, it means people are going to deny it. That's what plausible deniability. And when you put up a message to ministers or to the foreign secretary or to the secretary of state in America, you have to outline how the United States or Britain can deny involvement in a military operation or a special forces operation. And then they provide the arguments about why and how you can deny it. So it's built into the system, this denial. So I don't know exactly what was the situation with President Trump,

but I mean, having been seen these sort of things in the past, I think what has happened is he'll have sat with his advisors and General Kellogg and the others there and Kellogg would say to him, listen Mr President, I mean, you know, we've got some things lined up which we believe is going to put real pressure on Putin. It's going to really change the paradigm of this war. And you don't need to know the details. You don't need to know the details. You can deny it and say you didn't know anything about it.

That's fine. And that's how it's done. Last question on this subject matter. Are British assets now lawful targets for the Russians? Oh, yes. I mean, this is war. I mean, you know, this is very much the case. If British forces are deliberately killing Russians, Russian civilians or others, then Russia has the right under international law, law of war, to attack

particularly British servicemen who may be engaged in this. Yeah, certainly. Switching to Iran now, what is the status of the uranium enrichment issue. We have heard from Mr. Woodcroft, both sides from his mouth that the United States is on both sides of this issue, that it won't permit any enrichment whatsoever period. He knows this is a non-starter and he knows the Iranians cannot agree to that. We've also heard him say that enrichment can stay at the level where it is now for a certain time period, as long as it stays at that level and international authorities can examine it. As recently as last night at the Kennedy Center, the president said no enrichment whatsoever. Can we get a finger on where the United States stands on this and why the United States would seek to negotiate

for something that's an absolute non-starter? Well, where we are, this was Wednesday night, today's Thursday, Wednesday night, Witcoff delivered some of his remarks at the annual Gala of the United Hatzala organization held on Wall Street in New York, tended by about 1,100 guests, including people like Mario Maddelson and many others like that. And he said, quote, and I'll give you the quote, Iran must never be allowed to enrich uranium or develop any nuclear capabilities. A nuclear Iran is an existential threat to Israel. Iran possessing large quantities of missiles

is no less an existential threat than the nuclear threat. And it is an existential threat to the US, to the world and to all Gulf states." End of quote. And that was what he said as reported at this gala meeting of this aid organization, United Hasala. I mean, I saw a few videos and people seemed to be almost dancing in glee with what he was saying, getting up and sort of slapping everyone and almost, I mean, you know, dancing in the aisles in happiness at what he's saying. So you asked me where we are.

Well, I think that we're going backwards in these negotiations, If that is the position of the United States, we must assume. He said that very carefully, as you heard. I mean, these words were put together not in a haphazard way. He said this very carefully. This is the first time I've heard from any American official or he's not an American official, any person purporting to speak for the American government that Iran's possession of missiles, non-nuclear missiles, is an existential threat to the United States. Exactly, yes.

I mean, this is absurd, this is irrational for them to suggest. What is he telling that he's going to try and negotiate a position where Iran will destroy its own weaponry when a madman like Netanyahu every day is threatening to attack? I mean if you go back to I looked up the speeches of Trump at the time when the United States withdrew from the JCPOA. And he also brought it up. He didn't put it in terms that these missiles were a threat to the United States. He was just saying that the things that had to be, that the question of the nuclear thing

was one thing, but why he was withdrawing from JCPOA was because of the missile threat and because of Iran's support for these so-called terrorist organizations like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. So it's been in the background for some time. Now it's coming out. So is this, I think I would just ask, I mean, we have to work out, the key question is, is this reality TV? Is this Trump wanting to divert attention from something else? Is this real? Because if so, it seems to be completely divorced from reality. I mean, the whole, the whole project has become divorced from reality. And I would say that this follows exactly what we've seen in Russia with us. If you like an approach to Russia, totally divorced from any understanding of what is Russia, understanding of the situation, military situation. And nonetheless, it has been pursued in the hope that this pressure would somehow produce,

you know, a lucky result and Putin would agree to being, if you like, imprisoned in a cage of a ceasefire to await a further round of war in a few years' time. Well, that's not going to happen. But it's the same thing here. If this is considered to be pressure by the advisors, I think they were all meeting at Camp David over the last few days at some point. If they think this is going to think this is going to get Iran to say, oh my goodness, I mean, you know, we better, you know, give in and do what Mr. Trump says. They've got it as wrong as the team has got Russia wrong. They do not understand it's going to redouble the Iranian determination, the resolve of not just the Iranian government, but the Iranian people.

You know, you see polls now coming out in Iran where 69% of Iranians say, look, we think it's time to go for a nuclear weapon. I mean, with all this pressures that we see coming. Now, this is time. Let's go for it. Let's do it. I mean, I'm not saying that that's the position of the government, it isn't. Nothing has changed in that respect but I'm just saying the temper of people, the resolve and it's similar to what we've seen, the anger in Russia and the feeling that now is the time, we just have to push on I think, so it could be that this is seen by the team

as pressure and that we will be able to use this, the threat of Israel doing an attack on Iran. By the way, the Iranians not the slightest worried about Israel attacking them because they know they're not capable of attacking them in any serious way. They don't have the planes or the capability, they don't have the tanker aircraft to refuel enough aircraft to make this realistic. You need a lot of aircraft in the air to suppress air defences. Each one of those needs refueling

perhaps once or twice during the journey, wherever it goes through Iraq or something like this, you know, these are not easy. Now the thing is it's become also, you know, for many Iranians and for the leaders, this round of negotiations with America is not straightforward at all because they say, what if we do a deal, supposing we do a deal with America, whatever it be, I'm not saying what it would contain, but if we did a deal with America, why would that benefit Iran now? Because so much of, if you like, what was covered by the JCPOA back in the early days, like things like the central bank was sanctioned, like the

national oil company was sanctioned. Okay. And then after 2015, the United States changed that and sanctioned them not under the nuclear issue, but under the Palestinian issue. And we've had the same with the CAATSA and the human rights, if you like, sanctions, and the personal sanctions for terrorism on the IRGC. Now, and also since that period, Congress has decreed that any deal between Iran and the United States now must by law be approved by Congress and that with a two-thirds majority Congress can knock down any deal. So, you know, will Iranians really see a lifting of sanctions, whatever they agree to, if they agree to everything,

would they see a real lifting of sanctions? I'm not going to pretend I can give a categoric judgment, but I think most Iranians are deeply skeptical. Is the United States preparing for war against Iran? I mean in the past 48 hours we've seen these evacuations of American embassies in the Middle East. Do you think that this is an indication of imminent war or some sort of a ploy for negotiation purposes? Well as I say could be, but it doesn't really matter which it is. It's a strange answer to give you. It doesn't really matter because if it's a negotiation ploy, it will fail. And if it's a ploy to prepare for war, well, that's going to fail too.

So I mean, it doesn't really change much whichever it is. Yes, I think they're preparing. Clearly Israel is preparing too. They are preparing very fast. I mean, they are delighted. They are dancing in the streets at the idea that America may attack Iran. But as I've tried to say several times in this, even America cannot attack the Iranian nuclear bunkers. Well, they're more than bunkers, they're hidden in mountains of the nuclear Israeli, Iranian nuclear deterrence. Because if you like to get the biggest bunker bomber possible,

the GBU 5797, which is the biggest they have and which Israel doesn't have, it can only be launched, if you like, by a heavy aircraft, by a B-2, and it will only penetrate to 66 meters. Even a nuclear weapon will go down to at the most 200 to 500 meters of depth. Iranian, if you like, centrifuges, which are all based on, if you like, a special absorbent base that can withstand an earthquake of six on the Richter scale, but they are literally half a mile beneath. They are more than 800 meters down and there are five of them. And it would take about 15 bombs, 12 to 15 of the big bunker bombs or even the nuclear bombs to get anywhere near them if they do at all. And that would mean you're talking about six or seven

aircraft, B2s, American B2s. But you'd also then, but there are five of them. So you want to have all of these bombs five times over. So you'd need 30 B2 bombers. And America doesn't have that. It doesn't even own that many. It owns much less. A few, I mean, at most 10 or 12 or something, but it doesn't have 30 to spare on this. So the Iranians are cautious. Now, I think there's one possibility that needs to be aired, which is that it's possible that Trump is all about drama and everything else.

He might think he's able to do a sort of Yemen exercise whereby he says to the Iranians, look, we'll bomb a target. Look, you line up an empty IRGC headquarters, no one in it, and we'll bomb that. And then you'll bomb a radar system in Israel. And then we'll say, great victory. The Iranians have backed off, and we're on the path to success. The Iranians won't buy that. They won't go into that. Not at all. They are very feeling, very confident. I was speaking to Tehran today. They're very confident

that they're not at all fussed. They think that, and I would say following military analysts that I I would say following military analysts that I have much at mar, will Shriver and who says basically pity the countries that attacks Iran, pity the country, Israel or America that attacks Iran, because they're going to pay a huge price. And Israel will. And we've left out the other great element in this, which is really important, is Iran claims that it has managed to steal a cache of nuclear secrets from Israel, which include the complete, if you like, target range of their most sensitive nuclear sites in Israel, all the details of those, and they also have a treasure trove of other intelligence. Now,

I haven't seen it and wouldn't understand it probably if I did, but it's been seen by some Farsi-speaking bits of it, not all of it, because they've had this for some time. But it also shows or purports to show that the IEA have been playing a double game throughout this, that they have been providing intelligence directly to Israel about, if you like, Iranian secret sites and others. So we have here this happening and at the same time if you like the board of governors of the IAEA have now produced a resolution stating that Iran is in breach of the JCPOA which is obviously a prelude to a coming resolution for a snapback of sanctions. So as I say, the process, if it is a political process, is going backwards at this time.

What happens if Iran does have Israeli nuclear secrets and it publishes them. What does that achieve? I don't think they'll publish them until they've attacked them first. They can publish them after, but I think they probably want to keep the element of surprise, military surprise, in their hands first. So yeah, no, I mean, look, this would be devastating for Israel if this is true, which may explain why we've had a slight change in tone from Netanyahu who's been saying, well, you know, I could see if you like just temporary enrichment, of course, which he's always said never, ever, ever. And, of course, even that temporary enrichment is not acceptable to Iran, the idea of this consortium. By the way, that consortium idea did not come from

the Iranians. It came from the American side. And it's not going to fly. It's not going to do the work because essentially America wants this consortium. I mean they even claim that they've decided how many shares each side owes. It's not true and this consortium idea wouldn't even be in Iran so that at any point you know the West could still turn off the energy supply. I just want to explain I want to explain why this is such a neurologic point is that for many years, going back to the Shah's time, Iran had a research reactor in Tehran which produced medicines and things for diseases that needed isotopes and things for curing cancer and other diseases. And it requires 20% enriched uranium to work.

And they had that at the time and they imported it. And then at a certain point with the JCPOA, they came to the US and negotiated and said, look, we've long since run out of the 20%. We'd like to import some. And initially the US said, okay, yes, you know, go out in the market and get 20% enrichment. We can agree to that probably. And of course, what happened was they found buyers. And then the Americans said, of course, you can't, no, you're not going to have 20%. And this is behind the Iranian absolute determination.

No, we have to have enrichment on our own soil. We can't let it just be at the whim of another state. Before we finish, I want your comments on this. We're going to play two clips from the American director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. One is testimony under oath before Congress, saying that the IC, the intelligence community, is convinced that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon.

And the other is a video she made just the other day for her own personal website, not an official government website, saying the opposite. The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, not building a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003. As we stand here today, closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, political elite and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers.

Perhaps it's because they are confident that they will have access to nuclear shelters for themselves and for their families that regular people won't have access to. This thing is to whom she's referring in the second one. Is she talking about Lindsey Graham, Benjamin Netanyahu?

She can't be talking of anybody in Iran because they're not threatening to use a weapon that they don't have. I think that she's probably talking, you may have seen that Larry Johnson when he was in Moscow this week, he met with a very senior general in Moscow who told him, you know, that this attack on the air bases, we had come closer to nuclear war with the West than any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis. So that's what she was talking about. I think that's probably what she was talking about.

But equally, I mean, what we're talking about in Iran, because we're going into the same thing, you know, where we have some plans and ideas about that Iran would fold, that it is weak, that it doesn't have any air defenses, and it would collapse very easily so we can put the pressure on. It has weapons that have the capabilities of a nuclear explosion. It already has those. It has hypersonic missiles and it has even larger missiles with capabilities that we don't exactly know. But as I say, it could be devastating. A war with Iran could be devastating

both for the United States, but certainly for Israel. It could be change the whole balance in the United States, but certainly for Israel. It could be change the whole balance in the United States. It could change the whole, you know, political paradigm in the United States. I hope the White House is listening. That's the best I can say. I know somebody over there listens, but I hope it gets to the Oval Office. Alistair, thank you very much. As I said, I know it's not your usual day or usual time, but events are happening quickly and your analysis is indispensable to us. Thank you very much, my dear friend. We'll see you Monday morning Eastern Time.

My pleasure. Thank you. Thank you. Of course. A great man with brilliant insight and selfless in his willingness to share what he knows. Coming up later today at one o'clock on all of this, Professor Glenn Deason, at two o'clock on all of this, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, at three o'clock on all of this, Professor John Mearsheimer, and at four o'clock, if we can find him, Max Blumenthal.

Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. You