Judging Freedom - [SPECIAL] Fmr. British Diplomat to Russia - IAN PROUD: Can Europe Defend Ukraine?

Episode Date: May 7, 2025

[SPECIAL] Fmr. British Diplomat to Russia - IAN PROUD: Can Europe Defend Ukraine?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

you Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Wednesday, May 7th, 2025. Ian Proud, the former British diplomat posted for a while in Moscow joins us now. Ian, it's always a pleasure, my dear friend. Thank you very much for coming back to the show. Thank you for your great articles that you send me, which always piqued my interest. Why the recent apocalyptic language from Prime Minister Stammer, from President Macron, and I expect to come soon from Chancellor Mertz. And add to that the universal male draft, I'm not sure of the ages, in Poland.

What's going on? What is the impression that mainstream European leaders are trying to press upon their people? I think leaders are terrified that Trump is now in town and he's taking policy towards Ukraine in a completely different direction, not the direction that European leaders wanted to go in the direction they've been clinging on to for the past 11 years since the Ukraine crisis started. That's to support Ukraine right to the last Ukrainian whipping up threats that Russian army will attack next week, possibly tomorrow. But these are nothing new. The pitch has gone up simply because the pressure has also gone up from Washington, DC

to actually settle this senseless war and bring it to a close in circumstances where neither the European leaders nor actually Zelensky himself want to do that. Do the European leaders who are using this apocalyptic behavior really and truly fear the Russian invasion or is there something else that they fear and this being seen to fail. Right, right, right. They fear, I'm going to ask you, you're the expert on Europe, far more attuned to it than I am. Don't they fear that they'll be ousted from office, that they won't have any usefulness, that their people don't want to spend money on the military, they'd rather spend it on social services?

Well, Mertz only just scraped through the election in the Bundestag. You know, he fell to the first round of voting. The AFD, the Alternative for Deutschland, has actually gone up in population popularity since the general elections in Germany. And actually, the reform party seems to be surging in Britain as well. These parties are anti-war, anti-massive military spending, and that is really putting the frighteners up, leaders like Mertz, obviously, Keir, Stama, and so on. And of course, the other factor is if war stops now, the great fear is how do you

actually then, in an accelerated way, include this dysfunctional failed state like Ukraine within the European Union and all the problems that that will unleash? You know, European leaders are in a perfect storm of their own making and not really sure what to do with Trump barking in their ear to actually bring matters to a close. It's a really free-rile political moment in Europe right now. Is there a scintilla of evidence of which you are aware that the Kremlin has its eyes on Berlin or Paris or London? There's not a, I mean, obviously I was across

all of the intelligence while I worked for the foreign office, you know, focusing on Russia. There's never been any evidence that that was the case. This has always been a bit of a scare story to whip up, you know, the military industrial complex to produce ever more weapons to maintain an antagonistic posture, you know, towards Russia. You know, Russian tanks aren't about to vote into Vigo or Poland and definitely not into Germany frankly or France. It's always been a ridiculous proposition and continues to be today.

I mean Germany is a peculiar situation. The AFD is the second most popular party there. It may soon be the most popular party. You have the German, I forget if it's either law enforcement or intelligence, you can tell me which has characterized it as a terrorist organization. I mean, could you imagine that Joe Biden, CIA, characterizing the Republican Party as a terrorist organization when the Republican Party was more popular? That's almost what just happened in Germany. Well, with the greatest of respect, Judge Wong could make a strong case that the war, or the law

fair, as it's been termed, arguably started during President Trump's first in office with the Russia gate probe and that sort of thing. And what we're seeing happening in Germany is really just another variant of that same law fair approach using the law to cancel opinion that goes against what the blob wants to do. We've also seen that, of course, in Romania as well with what's happening there, the cancellation of one presidential candidate at the end of last year, and now the same

panic and fear about another presidential candidate who also wants to have anti-blob policies. One of our guests has referred to Chancellor Mertz, now he wasn't the Chancellor, I don't even know if he's the Chancellor yet, but he's about to be, he finally won the the balloting the second time. By the way, how embarrassing was it to lose that kind of a ballot? I mean, can't they count noses? Well, it's never happened before, I believe, in 79 years since Germany sort of

gained democracy after the end of World War II. So it's a shocking event. Obviously, Germany has coalition governments, but nevertheless, it was a complete surprise, and possibly signals a desire among some within his party to kind of maintain the status quo of the previous so-called Rainbow Coalition. One of our guests who studies geopolitics has characterized Chancellor Mertz as the most dangerous chancellor in Germany in the post-World War II era. He's talking about bellicosity. Is that a view that you share? the colonial era. He's talking

before him. He's possibly more bellicose than Olaf Scholz. He tried but failed most of the time to have a more moderate line on Russia against a coalition that very much was against the line that he wanted to take. I think what is different about Mertz is that he's coming on board with what the kind of mainstream within the political elites that is you know know, within Germany, you know, want to do on Ukraine policy in particular. Do the public, does the public in Germany, we'll continue with Berlin, Paris and London, does the public in Germany, France and England embrace Russia phobia or is this just the myth of the elites and the governing class? Well Russophobia is very much driven by the elites and the governing class and I think that the rise of AFD but also a foreign party Marine Le Pen against whom lawfare has also been used as you very well know Judge, you know these know, critical movements are actually reaching out to people who are starting to

question the direction of travel on on Ukraine policy. So I think actually there, you know, gradually there's a greater awareness amongst ordinary working-class people, the people who have to fight a war if we had a war with Russia. That actually may be, you know, the whole thing has been a complete disaster for the last 11 years and these new so-called nationalist, ultra-nationalists or whatever the elite tries to call them, actually have a better idea on how to embrace Russia. Is Najib Faraj going to one day be the Prime Minister of Great Britain?

If you'd asked me that last year, George, I'd have said absolutely never. But after the recent elections, you have to say there's been a real grand swell of support for him. The Conservative Party seems to be imploding, quite frankly, so it may well be that actually reform replaces Conservatives. What is the election that his people prevailed in? Our understanding in the US was that it was local governing bodies, it was not an election for Parliament. Well, there was one election for a parliamentary seat. There are some mayoral elections and some local government elections, but nevertheless the scale of the change in terms of the votes that they gathered was so huge that both the Labour Party and the Conservative Party view that as a

massive blow to their standing within the country. So, you know, it isn't, you know, the same as a general election result, but nevertheless, it represented a pretty significant shift just given the scale of the swing towards reform in traditionally kind of, for example, pro-labour areas, for example, in the north of England. Right, right. Does the British public Right, right. Does the British public understand that the British military is a fraction of its former self, both Navy and Army, not much of an Air Force to speak of and and Sir Keir's bellicosity is is toothless. I wrote an article just a couple of days ago about the ridiculously small size of our navy where we can only put to sea nine ships, not including our four nuclear deterrent submarines, four of which we sent off on a publicity tour to Asia. And actually the head of the British navy has just been forced out of office today. I believe the first sea lord has suddenly and unexpectedly stepped down. So the whole Navy is in a terrible state, hardly any ships. The Army is tiny, 73, 74,000 soldiers.

And we're throwing billions and billions of pounds of this problem that's not really giving us any more soldiers or any more equipment, frankly frankly while still spending four and a half billion every year on Ukraine. What is your belief about Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania? Are they on Putin's radar screen or is this also part of the, we got to beef up NATO because Trump might pull the US out of NATO as a part of that. No, I mean, they've got historical grievances going back to the Second World War, going back to them being incorporated within the Soviet Union. Kaya Callas, the lead so-called diplomat, she's frankly not a diplomat at all. She's a disgrace. But I mean, she is.

Who is she? So she is the the European high representative foreign policy. It's like the the foreign minister for year, even though she's not actually elected. She's a former prime minister of the state. Because I heard in his Face the Nation interview, I heard foreign minister Lavrov mentioned her and I didn't know I didn't know who she was. What is she stating publicly about all of this? That Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania better bulk up the tanks on the border because the bear is coming?

Well, she's saying exactly those things. And Estonia has an absolutely minuscule army. I mean, really, it'd be like a brigade of the United States Marine Corps in terms of its size. It's really tiny. It's a very small country. I mean, she just hates Russia. She has stated publicly,

she wants to see the breakup of Russia into separate states. She also wants to take on China after apparently, you know, the European Union has defeated Russia. So she's completely mad as a box of frogs, as we might say, in the UK, driven by this kind of intense, very Baltic-specific Russophobia that you also see in Latvia and Lithuania. But actually, there's no credibility to this. I mean, there's just, you know, Putin

has no stated aim to kind of go into the Baltics. It would be insinuating to do so the NATO and European Union members. What is the attitude amongst British intelligence with which you've dealt MI6 when they hear a Sir Keir Stormer warning of the Russian bear and they know damn well from their intel that such a warning is baseless? Well, for them it's ka-ching, ka-ching, they get more resourcing for their activity.

So I mean, you know, if you look at it through a rational lens, well, you know, maybe, you know, your thesis stands, but for them, they need a global threat to justify their resources and that's Russia. What is your view of the Witkoff, that's the President's emissary, not General Kellogg, I'll ask about him later, but Steve Witkoff, what is your view of the Witkoff negotiations face to face with President Putin and whether or not they're likely to succeed. I mean, we have a Ukrainian government that the Russians don't even recognize as legitimate. And in fact, under international law, it's not legitimate. We have a Ukrainian president who probably fears for his life if he goes along with the Russian demands.

And we have a Russian government that has consistently articulated its demands from day one. It hasn't expanded them and it hasn't reduced them. They've been intellectually honest and consistent to the core. Well, I welcome and have welcomed several times Steve Witkoff's engagement. He's actually talking to Russia. And in fact, it's a sign of how important

this engagement is to President Putin that he's meeting President Putin personally. Witkoff has no real standing in the United States government. He's just a messenger from President Trump but nevertheless the President of the Russian Federation country with more nuclear weapons than anybody else is meeting him personally. That on its own should tell you a lot about the importance that is attached to this engagement. Biden had practically no engagement with President Trump in the period when he was ramping up the move towards all that war in 2021 and then into 2022.

So this is hugely symbolically significant, it's politically significant. You know, I think, and I applaud everything that Wicoff has done, you know, so far, but the challenge challenges in terms of whether this is going to be a success, Judge, your question is actually, well, you know, can I think, you know, the US and Russia were able to kind of come to an understanding of what's

needed to break a piece, but can then President Trump actually, you know, encourage the Europeans to come on board, you know, with this, because at the moment, it seems to me the Europeans are doing everything possible to resist. So Wiccough good, excellent signs, but actually with the Europeans digging trenches it's still going to be a tough task to bring the water in. What is your view as a career diplomat to this irregular arrangement? The president's buddy, his friend from New York, a former business partner

not vetted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and not confirmed by the US Senate, receiving no salary, having no staff, having no governmental authority whatsoever. Well I applaud any effort to reach out in a diplomatic way to Russia in the circumstances where there's been a complete diplomatic vacuum for a decade, you know, and more. So I applaud it. You know, the fact that actually he doesn't have any status is in some respects a good thing. If you relied on the, you know, the officials in the State Department to do it, you know,

the chances are that nothing actually would happen and no disrespect to them. I'd say exactly the same thing about the UK Foreign Office, you know, too. So actually what President Trump wants, you know, as the head of state of the United States of America is somebody who he trusts to deliver the messages that he wants to deliver to President Putin and that's Witkoff if he doesn't have any status. Well, who cares? I mean, he's actually putting an incredibly important role. I accept your analysis. Here's vice president Vance in Europe earlier today. He doesn't really give a reason for it, but he says twice in this clip,

we think the Russians are asking for too much. Cut number 25, Chris. Our view is it's absurd that you've had this war go on for so long and the two sides aren't even talking constructively about what would be necessary for them to end the conflict. You don't have to agree with the Russian justification for the war and certainly both the president and I have criticized the full scale invasion, but you have to try to understand where the other side is coming from to end the conflict. And I think that's what President Trump has been very deliberate about, is actually forcing the Russians to say, here is what we would like in order to end the conflict.

And again, you don't have to agree with it. You can think that the request is too significant, and certainly the first peace offer that the Russians put on the table, our reaction to it was, you're asking for too much, but this is how negotiations unfold. And I wouldn't say, I'm not yet that pessimistic on this, I wouldn't say that the Russians are uninterested in bringing this thing to a resolution. What I would say is right now, the Russians are asking for a certain set of requirements, a certain set of requirements, a certain set

of concessions in order to end the conflict. We think they're asking for too much. I don't know what, and I don't imagine you don't either, Witkoff is trying to negotiate out of President Putin. But as we said earlier, Ian, what the Russians are asking for today in May of 2025 is the same thing they were asking for in February of 2023. They haven't changed, and they are within inches. When I asked Foreign Minister Lavrov off camera, he went like this, holding his forefinger and his thumb about an inch and a half apart.

Why would we agree to a ceasefire when we are this close? They are within inches, metaphorically, of achieving their goal. Are they not? Their military goal. Or are these drones, which are now being made, I understand, one a minute in Ukraine going to force Putin to use stronger missiles or be more patient? Well Russia still has the upper hand on the battlefield as you see with the small incremental movements happening on a day-to-day basis. I think the controversial issue, the sticking point in negotiations is around the territorial

issue of the four oblasts and how the line is drawn around that. I mean, I think the NATO issue has very evidently been taken off the table and people understand that. But how do you draw the line when the fighting stops? You know, Russia still wants to evidently conquer the whole of the Donbass. The United States has been making noises about recognizing Crimea. I think that is the sticking point that's holding things up right now, but the really important thing for me that Vice President France said at the top of that was the need actually to bring both sides together to sort it out, because there's only so much the United States can do. And actually the Russian side has said that they're willing to have direct

negotiations with Ukraine. Clearly Ukraine doesn't want to do that too, so actually there needs to be more pressure on the Ukrainian side to get to a position where both Russia and Ukraine are talking directly to each other and finding some sort of compromise on this. Two weeks ago, Secretary of State Rubio said, we're getting sick and tired of this. We're going to give both sides a week, and then we may very well close up shop, I'm paraphrasing him, with respect to Ukraine. Not only have we not closed up shop, the president has authorized another 500 million, half a billion dollars worth of military gear to be sent to Ukraine. Do the European elites still fear that Donald Trump will leave Ukraine in the lurch? Absolutely, they're terrified about that and they're terrified about that because they'll

have to pick up the bill. I mean that's... Can they afford the bill? No they can't afford the bill. They absolutely cannot afford the bill. I mean I've written extensively on how this Rearmament Plan already isn't affordable. There's how do you even keep the Ukrainian government afloat into 2026 if a fighting keeps happening. There's one massive bill there. That isn't even considering the cost of fighting the war itself You know Europe just doesn't have the money for this Europe and the USA don't have the money to keep doing this You know forever. That's why you know we need to kind of turn off this big and say well make it end I mean that is the only way because

Even if the ones today Europe is still gonna face a massive bill going into next year in the year after just keep Ukrainian lights on. Before I let you go, I have to ask you what you think of this. It's President Trump on Meet the Press on Sunday. Chris, cut number 10. Ukraine, there's been discussions they will have to give up some of the land that Russia is illegal. Russia will have to give up all of Ukraine because that's what they want.

All of Ukraine, meaning they wouldn't keep any of the land that they've claimed. Russia would have to give up all of Ukraine because what Russia wants is all of Ukraine. And if I didn't get involved, they would be fighting right now for all of Ukraine. Russia doesn't want the strip that they have now. Russia wants all of Ukraine. And if it weren't me, they would keep going. Does anybody take that seriously? No, not really.

Is there a scintilla of evidence that the Kremlin wants all of Ukraine? No, I mean, I've got a lot of side for President Trump. I think there he just being just being by President Trump is, you know, about it. I mean, that that just speaks his narrative that things would be a a lot worse if he's what wasn't in charge. That's fine I respect what he's been trying to do in Ukraine. It's much needed. The Europeans have you know, been doing absolutely nothing So I welcome his efforts, but I think he's just playing to the crowd. I'm afraid okay I think you're probably right or if you're wrong, if he really believes that he's getting terrible, terrible Intel and he's believing what those neocons are whispering into his ears. But the way I mean, there are still strong voices in his own party, but they still, you know, believe that still believe that. So I mean, you know, he has a tough job just within the belt way to kind of shift things, right? I mean, it's not just he's got to he's got to tackle the blob in D.C.

He's got to get these rest of European leaders on board. He's got to deal with Zelensky, who just wants to fight, you know, to the last Ukrainian and deal with the Russians. So, I mean, it's a massively difficult task. He's got and I admire what he's been trying to do so far. Right. In Proud, a pleasure to chat with you. Thank you, my friend. Keep those weekly columns coming. They're very informative. I hope you can come back and join us again soon. And I met him many, many times up in my days at Fox. If you come across Nigel Farage, tell him I love him.

Nigel Farage, tell them I love them. I will do. Thank you, Ian. Thanks for that. Yeah, thank you. Very enlightening conversation that I deeply appreciate and I hope you all do as well. Coming up later today, two o'clock, Aaron Mate, on the same subject. Three o'clock, Phil, Phil Giraldi, how deep into the US government is the Israeli government? Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. you