Judging Freedom - [SPECIAL] INTEL Roundtable w/ Johnson & McGovern - Trump/Putin

Episode Date: August 15, 2025

[SPECIAL] INTEL Roundtable w/ Johnson & McGovern - Trump/PutinSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Welcome to this special edition of the Intelligence Community Roundtable, special because we're on at 8 o'clock in the morning East Coast U.S. time in an effort to analyze, anticipate, and almost predict what will be happening eight or nine hours from now when President Trump and President Putin meet in Anchorage, Alaska. Larry Johnson, welcome here. Ray McGovern, welcome here. Thank you for getting up early to both of you. We certainly have plenty to talk about. Larry, to you first, who has the stronger hand at the outset of this meeting, Trump or Putin?

Well, I'd say it falls to Putin, at least the public present preparation. that we've seen. Putin held a meeting yesterday with 21 other, of his senior, most senior, both economic, national security, intelligence, and only one, one, two people from the military, Garasimov and Belosov, the defense minister. And then Yuri Ushikov came out and gave a pretty detailed explanation of what they anticipated. We haven't seen any of that from the Trump side. Now, but it's clear that there has been some preparation and planning underway.

I'd love to know who the poor soul is at State Department. They've got tasked with having to pull together all the logistics of this. Because if you watch what, they've set up a media center, they've had to do some translations of, you know, create signs. So there obviously has this, this has been going on behind the scenes. Right. So Trump has been doing a lot of distraction. But Putin, by being so upfront and out open about this, is showing, hey, they're taking it seriously. And it's sending, you know, he's calculating, I think, that they're able to send a message to the world that Russia is really trying to have a decent negotiation. So if anything goes right,

wrong, it's not going to be on Russia's head. Ray, because you are our resident criminologist, I'm going to play a little clip from the comments to which Larry referred by President Putin yesterday and ask you to analyze and read between the lines, please. Chris, cut number eight. I have asked you together today in order to inform you about the progress of the negotiation process concerning the Ukrainian crisis. and about how the bilateral talks with the Ukrainian delegation are going.

One way or another, many of those present here are generally aware of the situation, but I will provide more details. That is the first point. The second is to tell you at what stage we are now in our contact with the current U.S. administration, which, as is well known, is, in my view, making rather energetic and sincere efforts to put an end to the hostilities to stop the crisis, and to reach agreements that would be of interest to all parties involved in this conflict.

This would be done in order to create long-term condition for peace, both between our countries and in Europe and indeed throughout the world. If, at the following stages, we are able to reach agreements in the area of strategic offensive arms control, that is what I wanted to say at the beginning. your read on President Putin's comments to his closest 20 advisors well thanks judge I don't have to repeat what he said I had a written all down here it's not an arcane science what he says is what he's going to proceed on now are this business about energetic efforts and sincere efforts by the United States to put an end to the war in

Ukraine, wow, that's big. Who is he? Who is the United States making efforts with? Oh, it's not only Russia, it's Zelensky, for God's sake. They're talking sense to Zelensky and the Europeans and say, look, the game is up here. I'm going to make a deal. I'll make it as nice as it can be for you, but that's the deal. Now, going in with that positive attitude, I don't understand why anybody, you know, I just saw a quote from, Larry Wilkerson yesterday on one of his interviews, he said, look, there's another possibility. We terminate the whole thing right here, and Putin and his team go home. Trump basks in his having stood up to the Russians and uses that domestically and internationally. It could go either way. I don't see how. Where's the evidence that Putin's going to get back on a plane and go home? Everything points to a productive first session.

not everything's going to be resolved, but all the earmarks are there for people to take this seriously. There is a chance that Trump will act in a inchoate way. But, you know, Putin's willing to take that chance because he's winning and because he wants the war to stop. He doesn't want to take over all Ukraine that would give him his Vietnam. He's too smart for that. So there's a deal in the making. Right. Boy, I wish that the American neocons had the same grasp. on this that you do ray larry what if anything is the significance of and i'm paraphrasing colonel mcgregor here the recent substantial russian victories on the battle substantial use the word twice on the battlefield well uh if you look at the composition of the the russian delegation

and now the composition of the u.s delegation there's only the defense minister of russia is participating not general garrasov so since there's such scant military participation on the russian side as well as you know no one from the intelligence community almost it's it's really almost entirely an economic delegation that tells you that really the ukraine i think will almost be something of a backburner in these discussions, that they're looking at something bigger in terms of restoring full relationships. And Putin is under no pressure to end the war. He's winning. I mean, they are winning and the pace of the offense offensive is accelerating. And so Ukraine is really in some serious,

serious trouble militarily. Yet what you look at here with the Russian objectives is a whole host of things. Everything from restarting nuclear arms control agreements, discussions, get those back on track, possibility of building a bridge slash tunnel that connects Alaska to Russia. I know that Demetriyev, that's been sort of a favorite project of his, looking at how they can cooperate in the article. What's really critical is there's a way that Russia could actually help the United States overcome what's going to be an electricity shortage, because as we shift into this new AI technology,

the United States is right now going to be at a tremendous deficit, in terms of electrical production within the next 10 years. There's a way they could work with Russia that Russia can actually provide electricity via some underwater cables to the United States that would help make up that gap. So there are a lot of areas for cooperation. All right. Fascinating. Yeah. Fascinating observation.

Just a little note here. Chris Leonard has posted a chat room poll. and the poll is, does the Putin-Trump summit end with a peace deal? You can vote yes or no, we'll have the results before we go off air. Ray, I'm along the lines of Larry's thinking. To me, it's clear that President Putin is more concerned with normalization and offensive arms control. And it's almost as if Ukraine is a sideshow or just an excuse. for the meeting. What do you think?

Well, Judge, I thought you were quoting from things I've written for the last two weeks. I agree with you as well. Well, Ukraine is taking a back seat. Yes. Overall arching. I've done this all. There's an overall arching wish on both sides to create a more decent relationship. This is made very clear, even by Ushakov, who says pretty much, yeah, of course. Ukraine is going to be discussed, but we have bigger fish to fry, arms control negotiations.

And the Minister of Finance, for God's sake, and the Minister for Investment, Kirillov, they're both on this delegation. So there are bigger fish to fry, and the atmosphere that has been created by Putin, mostly, Trump has his own problems creating good atmosphere because of people who were stabbing him in the back. So I see that unless Trump has to bow to all these crazy people and say, no, no, don't negotiate with Russia, the Russians not only have the big hand diplomatically, but they're beating the hell out of the Ukrainian missile production facilities in places like Neferovsk. We learned yesterday because the Ministry of Defense announced it yesterday that back in July,

Russia's bomb the hell out of their biggest missile production facility there. Now, why did they announce it yesterday? Just to remind people, look, we have the high cards here. We can do what we want. We don't want to take over the whole country. So for God's sake, we need to work with you to lean on Zelensky or whoever replaces him to make a deal. And that's the sum and substance of it, in my view. Larry, what is the Kremlin's view of Trump's trustworthiness?

I mean, if they ask their friends in Iran, they'll remind them that during the course of negotiations, Trump started bombing. Yeah, you know, I think they acknowledge that Trump is not a reliable, necessarily a reliable partner. But this is not the first time that Putin in particular has dealt with. truck they've had at least three prior meetings before this uh the last that was most i think publicized was the one in helsinki uh the reason i i come up with the number three is i've seen the different pictures of them shaking hands and i've counted three that they're each wearing three different ties so i don't i don't think that they got together had a picture said here let me go change my time and we'll come back and do this again. So, but, you know, I'm fascinated by

Trump's, it's almost like he's engaging in misdirection because he has been somewhat aggressive in his public comments with respect to Russia, you know, playing the tough guy and, you know, not saying what I call diplomatic things. But on the other hand, we've got to look at what's actually taking place and there was clearly some preparation for this meeting and the selection of Alaska in particular is it's most symbolic and it I think opens up some other possibilities that most commentators have not considered. I think we've seen this clip but I want to I want to play it again and I want your thoughts on it, Ray. Chris, cut number four.

Russia face any consequences if Vladimir Putin does not agree to stop the war after your meeting on Friday? Yes, they will. There will be consequences. There will be, I don't have to say, there will be very severe consequences. Does that mean anything to the Kremlin, Ray? Yeah, it means that he's got to play to the hardliners in Washington. That was clearly a canned question.

He gave the right answer. if he really wanted to say severe consequence, but what the hell are they? What severe consequences do you have, Mr. I wish that he had permitted a follow-up, because I don't know how he would have answered that. He just said, I don't have to answer it. He never allows follow-ups, let's face it, because he doesn't have any follow-up. Now, he's mercurial. The Russians realize that, and they realized basically that he's the only guy that they can deal with for three years, is the only president in recent history has shown at least an apparent wish to cut a deal and make things better with Russia. So they're going right ahead. Meanwhile, they have the battlefield successes. They have the

very high hand, but they're being gentle and circumspect. And I expect some real progress today, not any signed deal, maybe not even a big signed statement. It'll be the first stage in getting a decent relationship restarted and arms control is the big deal on that, as well as economic cooperation in the in the north there in the arctic or elsewhere so that's why you have the minister of finance that's why you have kitalin the investment guy as well as the the minister of defense the foreign minister the defense minister and of course Putin himself so the next stage and of course they're advisors there as well so it's not like the five against five it's not a basketball game they have they have deep reserves and that hold upon them if necessary

So here's the U.S. delegation, Larry, in addition to the president, of course, Secretary of State Rubio, Treasury Secretary Bessent, Commerce Secretary Lutnik, Steve Skavino, that's Trump's social media person, Steve Whitkoff, Carolyn Levitt, that's the press secretary, John Radcliffe, the head of the CIA, basically Mossad stenographer, Susie Wiles, the chief of staff, Dan Skavino, one of his Trump's political people. They're all neocons. They're all neocon Zionist arch ideologues. Yeah, but no, there's nobody from the Department of Defense. No, either Pete Hankseth or any general of any kinds. There's nobody in that group qualified to talk about what's going on militarily in Ukraine. Wow.

And that is, I think, insightful. You know, really maybe the ultimate intent here by Russia is for the follow-up, the second, the follow-up meeting that's going to take place in Russia. Because it's not just who's going to go from Trump's immediate circle. It's the press, the U.S. press that's going to be going to Russia for the first time in what, eight years, nine years, you really have not had press coverage of what's actually going on in Russia and by forcing the media to actually see what you and I have seen, what Ray has seen, how remarkable that place is, that that will help start turning, I think, the narrative

that is right now dominant in the West, which portrays Russia as this, you know, Soviet gulag, of authoritarian viciousness. All of a sudden, they get over there and go, oh, my God. You know, the lights work, subways are clean. They're not having to chase rats off of their seed in the subway. Right. Right. Ray, what is the comparison of Rubio?

It's almost a silly question, but I have to ask it. Rubio and Lavrov. And what happens if they speak? Judge, you're a charitable man. and I try to be. Let's just say they're not in the same league, but that doesn't matter. Trump's in charge.

The question is whether you're faced down these neocons. The U.S. delegation is a mirror image of what the Russians put forward. Economics, finance, okay. They're military guys and their intelligence guys and the support staff, which everyone acknowledges will also be there. So the thing is really important. Now, what will happen? They'll set the stage for the next one,

which Trump has said will come very quickly if I have my way in Russia. The only problem is Trump wants to include Zelenskyy. He tried to do that. Whitkoff raised it very obliquely with Putin. And the readout said, yeah, this issue was raised, but it wasn't even discussed. that Zelensky would take court in any of these things.

So I don't know why they, says Ushakov, I don't know why the Western press are making a big deal of this. Zelensky's had it, okay? No matter what the British and those other brain dead coalition of the willing say, the Europeans are out of this thing. And Trump was just playing real hardball and saying, look, toward the Europeans,

look, I'm gonna handle this, okay? And the question is whether he will think that he has to defer to the these same neocons that you mentioned, and they are all neocons, okay? Or whether he's his own man, and whether with Putin, they can talk some sense into the Ukrainians. Wow. We talked about this earlier right before we went on, since Larry and I, and maybe you know him as well, Array, Mario Knopfal, the podcaster, had quite a row with our buddy and colleague, Colonel

McGregor, the row was over Mario's insistence that the Russians are losing a lot of a lot of men on the battlefield and McGregor put a stop to it. Chris has the, Chris has the clip. So maybe let's just give our audience a bit of an overview of how you see what's happening on the on the battlefront. We're seeing advancements on the Russian side, especially in the recent weeks, but they've been relatively minimal. There's one could say a stalemate there. Both sides are losing a lot of a lot of men, a lot of equipment. That's all sense, Mario. Stop wasting my time.

Stop lying to your audience. That's bullshit, okay? The Russian losses have dropped to single digits. Think about that. 60, 90 days ago, they were double digits. Ukrainian losses are continuously horrific. So this is a nonsense that people are repeating on their way into this discussion with the Russians up in Alaska. You have no chance of coming to any sort of reasonable outcome when you

have distortions on the strategic level of the kind that you just outlined. Larry, I think he's 100. I think he's 100%. McGregor's 100% correct. Yeah. Of course. I mean, even Putin and Zelensky have acknowledged they're recruiting people who are, I have sons that are over 60 years old. If I live, lived in Ukraine, I would fear for them, that they'd be dragged out of the street and put in uniform. If it goes up to 85 years old,

they're really, really trouble at the president that would set. This is crazy. They're running out of men. They have four soldiers to cover a length of that border that stretches a mile or two. And that's been made very, very clear, not only by Eastern media, but by Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty,

which is pretty much has been a mouthpiece for the U.S. administration. So it's being acknowledged. They run out of men. They don't have any artillery shells. They don't have anything but drones or drones. Drones are a big problem for the Russians, but they're figuring a way out of that really high-tech way. Motorcycles.

If they go with these motorcycles, they're surrounded and come behind the enemy lines. Pacharovsky's about to fall, and it could fall actually, well, this week, if Putin gives the gun. go ahead. So that's the kind of bind that Trump finds himself in, and he's willing to deal anyway from this really, really weak hand that he's been dealt. As we conclude this half hour together, the results of Chris's poll, does the Putin-Trump summit end with a peace deal? Now, the voters are the chatters, the people that regularly watch this show. No surprise. No, 85%. Yes, 14%.

Larry, it is almost inconceivable that today will result in a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. Oh, no, that's not going to happen. And the foreign ministry at Lovrov and the spokesman yesterday reiterated their position that there's no chance that they're going to return any of the former Ukrainian oblasts that are now part of the Russian Federal Republic. You know, Putin could not sit down and say, okay, we'll give up Zaparisia and Persia any more than Trump could sit down with Putin and said, okay, we're giving you back Alaska. Because it's in the constitution, it's now constitutionally part of Russia. Now, a couple of interesting things that nobody's ever, you know, has explained yet. And so if the next meeting is going to include,

Zelensky. And the next meeting is going to be in Russia. Ooh. Gee, that's going to be an interesting trip for Zelensky. Wow. Going right there into the heart of Moscow or, say, Petersburg. So, you know, that's not going to happen. So the next phase will be really working towards normalization of the relationship. And remember, you have to go back and say, why did Trump change his deadline from 50 days, down to 10 days. And then when the deadline came, he didn't do anything. And I believe one of the reasons was he was finally getting briefed on the dire situation that is facing the Ukrainians.

That if he waited 50 days, there wouldn't be anything to talk about with respect to Ukraine. Ray, I'll give you the last word. What do you think we'll be talking about tomorrow at this time? Well, let me change it. Monday morning, when the three of us are on. next. I don't imagine Judge will be saying much different things than we are now.

I do want to object to a straw pole. It's pretty much a straw man. As even Larry pointed out, no one expects some sort of deal from the negotiations today. Matter of fact, the president's spokesman

said they're not even negotiations. They're feelers. So as a straw man, the other straw man is that Zelensky's going to go to Moscow. The Russians are going to let Zelensky anywhere near Moscow. This is all what the NATO people and what the hardliners want. They want Zelensky in the game.

They've tried in various ways, including distorting what Ushokhov has said. But Zelensky is going to wait for a long time before he's invited to go to Moscow. Count on it. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Thanks for the double duty and thanks for the early duty on Friday morning. Much appreciated. We'll see you on Monday. We'll have plenty to talk about. Thank you. Thanks, Judge. And on Monday, of course, Alster Crook at 8 in the morning and Ray at 10 and Larry at 1130. But Saturday morning, right around 1015 Eastern, a roundtable conversation, which I will moderate, another judging freedom live from the Ron Paul Institute annual gathering at the Hilton Hotel at the Dulles Airport in northern.

Virginia, Colonel Douglas McGregor, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, Anya Parenthold, and Max Blumenthal. That's tomorrow, Saturday at about 10.15 in the morning for just half an hour. How are the five of us only going to talk for three minutes each? Well, that's my job. We'll see if I can pull it off. Have a good day, everyone. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Thank you.